Mets Promote Christian Scott
TODAY: The Mets have officially selected Scott’s contract, and also called right-hander Cole Sulser up from Triple-A. Right-hander Dedniel Nunez and left-hander Danny Young were optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding moves.
MAY 2: The Mets are planning to promote pitching prospect Christian Scott, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. McDaniel adds that Scott will likely make his debut on Saturday against the Rays. He’s not yet on the 40-man roster, so the Mets will need a corresponding move to add him.
Scott, 25 in June, was a fifth-round selection of the Mets in 2021 but he has raised his stock dramatically since then. In 2022, he tossed 58 2/3 innings between Single-A and High-A with a fairly pedestrian 4.45 ERA, but stronger underlying metrics. He struck out 29.5% of batters faced while walking 8.4%. If not for a .381 batting average on balls in play and 68.1% strand rate, he would have fared much better, which is why his FIP was 2.77 that year.
Last year, he eventually rose as high as Double-A, throwing 87 2/3 frames for the year with a 2.57 ERA. He struck out 31.9% of batters while limiting his walks to a tiny 3.6% rate. He came into 2024 ranked as the #98 prospect in baseball, according to FanGraphs. At ESPN, McDaniel had Scott at #99. Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin of FanGraphs highlighted that he converted his changeup into a splitter, adding a strong third option to what had previously been mostly a sinker/slider combo.
He didn’t crack the season-opening lists at either MLB Pipeline or Baseball America, but has vaulted himself up to #62 on BA’s most recent update. That huge jump is a reflection of the fact that Scott has been dominating this year, apart from some homer troubles. Through five Triple-A starts here in 2024, he has fanned 38.3% of opponents while limiting his walks to a 6.4% rate. But thanks to seven fly balls clearing the fences, he has a 3.20 ERA.
In addition to pushing him up prospect lists, that strong performance will get him to the majors. The Mets currently have a rotation of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, Adrian Houser and José Buttó. The only optionable guy in that group is Buttó, but he has been pitching well, with a 2.57 ERA on the year. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com speculates that Scott’s promotion might be related to the Mets playing 26 games in 27 days, so perhaps Scott’s promotion will just be a spot start to give the others a breather.
The length of Scott’s stay might also depend on other factors. Each of Kodai Senga, Tylor Megill and David Peterson are on the injured list and their respective returns will impact how the rotation is configured as they season rolls along. Senga and Peterson on on the 60-day IL and can’t return until late May but Megill recently began a rehab assignment and could therefore be an option in a few weeks. Scott’s performance in his big league debut will naturally impact the decisions as well.
Regardless of how long Scott spends in the bigs for the rest of the season, he won’t be able to earn a full year of service time since the campaign is already more than a month old. The new CBA allows top prospects to earn a full year even if called up late if they finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, but that won’t apply to Scott. To be eligible for that benefit, a player has to start the year on two of three top 100 lists at ESPN, BA and MLB Pipeline, but Scott was only on one. That means the Mets can control him through the 2023 season, even if he sticks in the big leagues from here on out.
Latest On Mets’ Rotation Plans
The Mets are bringing up top pitching prospect Christian Scott for his debut against the Rays on Saturday. At least temporarily, he steps into a rotation that includes Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, José Buttó and Sean Manaea.
If Scott sticks in the rotation, right-hander Adrian Houser could be the odd man out. Manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters that Houser will be available out of the bullpen for next week’s series against the Cardinals, which runs from Monday through Wednesday (video link via SNY). It’s not clear whether that’ll be a permanent move. The Mets are off next Thursday before playing on 13 straight days between May 10-22.
Mendoza suggested the Mets haven’t determined how they’ll proceed for that nearly two-week stretch. They could operate with a six-man rotation to give their starters an extra day of rest. If they want to go back to a five-man rotation, the decision would likely come down to optioning Scott back to Triple-A Syracuse or keeping Houser in relief. Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote last night the Mets are committed to giving Scott at least two starts — tomorrow’s outing in Tampa Bay and a home start next weekend against the Braves — before determining whether he should stick in the rotation.
Scott has had an excellent five-start run to begin his time in Triple-A. Over 25 1/3 innings, he owns a 3.20 ERA behind a massive 38.3% strikeout rate. Houser, on the other hand, has had a tough first month in Queens. Acquired alongside Tyrone Taylor in an offseason deal with Milwaukee, Houser held a rotation spot through April. He has allowed 8.14 earned runs per nine across six starts as he’s struggled to find the strike zone.
The 31-year-old righty has walked nearly 15% of opposing hitters. He has issued multiple free passes in all six appearances, including four walks over five innings in yesterday’s outing against the Cubs. Houser’s strikeout rate has dropped to a career-low 11.7%, while his 44.4% ground-ball percentage is his lowest since 2018.
Houser was a decent back-end starter for Milwaukee a year ago. In 111 1/3 innings, he turned in a 4.12 ERA with a personal-best 7.1% walk percentage. He has never gotten huge strikeout tallies, but last season’s 20% mark was far better than he has managed thus far. While Houser’s velocity hasn’t significantly changed, he clearly has yet to find his command.
That could push him into low-leverage relief if Scott hits the ground running and the Mets want to stick with a five-man starting staff. New York doesn’t have the luxury of sending Houser to the minor leagues. He has over five years of service time, so he’d have to agree to an optional assignment and would have the right to test free agency if he were outrighted off the 40-man roster.