Latest Mets Buzz
Haven’t heard from my Mets source in a while, but he checked in this morning with some good info.
He tells me that the Mets are not interested in trading Lastings Milledge or Aaron Heilman in a Barry Zito deal. The Mets aren’t a team to overpay for 2-3 months of Zito given his impending free agency. In addition, the Wilpons are sensitive about the Scott Kazmir trade (7-2, 2.39 ERA) and won’t let history repeat itself.
On the other hand, if the Mets had to include Milledge and another top prospect (Alay Soler?) to acquire Dontrelle Willis, they’d jump at the chance. Willis could anchor the rotation for many years in front of Mike Pelfrey.
20 year-old outfielder Carlos Gomez is a scout favorite despite his current .219/.290/.318 line at Double A so far. The Mets love the kid, but he could be had if it meant acquiring an ace-caliber pitcher like Jason Schmidt without parting with Milledge.
Anderson Hernandez, Michael Abreu, Evan Maclane, Heath Bell, and Victor Diaz are all readily available trading chips if the Mets decide not to shoot for the stars.
Rox, Jays Interested In D-Train?
We haven’t mentioned Canada’s Marty York in a good two months. Back in March, York mentioned that the Blue Jays were close to acquiring Craig Wilson and that A.J. Burnett would miss all of April. Wilson’s a Pirate and Burnett made two starts in April, but I have to give him partial credit on Burnett.
Last Tuesday, York threw out all sorts of intiguing teams in connection with Dontrelle Willis. The Blue Jays and Rockies were two I definitely hadn’t heard before.
Willis to Colorado isn’t as crazy as it sounds. For one thing, the Rockies are shockingly a half game out of first place in the West. Secondly, they’ve never really tried this strategy in Colorado: just acquire really good pitchers and the ballpark won’t matter. A rotation of Willis, Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook, Jason Jennings, and Byung-Hyun Kim would actually be decent. Would the Rox offer up Ian Stewart and Brad Hawpe?
The Blue Jays, though…that part would be more feasible if the team had expendable young studs with which to make a deal. Dustin McGowan, Josh Banks, Brandon League, David Purcey, and Casey Janssen are all intriguing young pitchers, but only McGowan has been seen on any Top 50 Prospects lists. I imagine the Fish would want Alex Rios in the deal. Still doesn’t seem like a good fit.
York also mentions the Rangers, Yankees, and Phillies as interested parties.
Marlins Made Crazy Offer To Mets
According to Jon Heyman, the Fish offered Dontrelle Willis to the Mets for David Wright this spring. Sounds like something out of a fantasy league.
Baseball Prospectus projects Wright to be with about ten more wins than Willis over the next five seasons. I believe Heyman here. His report definitely calls Jeffrey Loria’s denials into question. Sounds like the Fish are shooting for the moon with Willis, but he really does seem to be available.
What do you think of a Willis for Chase Utley deal? Who wins, and why wouldn’t it work?
Olney’s Scoop On Willis
As the rumors heat up about possible Dontrelle Willis trades, Buster Olney had an informative blog post today. Here’s an excerpt of Olney quoting a team exec:
"When they traded Beckett, they basically contacted every team and then took offers. They haven’t said anything about those guys being available, and it would make sense that if they wanted to move them, they would tell everybody, because there would be a lot of interest."
I find it interesting that every team was given the opportunity to make an offer for Beckett. I wonder how common this practice is? Olney finishes by saying:
"Though neither Willis nor Cabrera is believed to be on the market now, the executives also have little doubt that both will be elsewhere before Opening Day next season."
It seems that the several GMs Ken Rosenthal spoke to are not any of the same people Olney spoke to. You’ll recall that Rosenthal’s sources said it’s "practically a given that the Marlins will trade Willis before July 31st."
I’ll side with Olney – I think Willis stays put this summer.
Who’s the favorite in the Willis derby, whether it’s this summer or this winter? I lean towards the Red Sox, but the Yankees need him even more. The Sox definitely have more young talent to offer, however. A couple of dark horses are the two Texas teams. But really, there are probably 15 teams that could be in the running.
Rosenthal On Willis Trade Possibility
We were all a bit skeptical of the idea of the Marlins trading their best pitcher, 24 year-old southpaw Dontrelle Willis. But I have to say, Ken Rosenthal’s article yesterday makes a Willis trade sound like a very legitimate possibility. Read up.
Rosenthal mentions Felix Pie, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Jon Lester as possible starting points for their respective teams. An offer starting with Lester and Dustin Pedroia would have to get the Marlins listening. An acquisition of Willis would give the team three former Marlins in the rotation.
Then there’s always Lastings Milledge, Omar Minaya’s last bullet. The Dodgers and Angels also have an overflow of young talent should either team decide they are one starting pitcher away from the playoffs.
Scary factoid: Willis’s top comparable, according to Baseball Prospectus? Steve Avery, circa 1994. Back in ’94, Avery was a 24 year-old southpaw coming off a brilliant 18 win, 2.94 ERA season. Avery never posted an ERA below 4 again. On the plus side, the 2003 version of Mark Buehrle is next on the list.