Rosenthal’s Latest
Ken Rosenthal posted a new article this afternoon. A good read as usual, though not chock full of new rumors.
- Rocco Baldelli remains the Devil Rays’ best trading chip; they hope to see the 25 year-old return and re-establish the trade value he had in 2006. Many are already saying the Rays waited too long on Baldelli, but let’s see what they get for him before making that judgment.
- Reggie Willits has hit his way into a starting job for the Angels. Nice to see an Angel drawing walks 12% of the time. That will enable Willits to remain effective after his batting average regresses. Rosenthal says third base is the clear position for upgrade for the Angels. Garrett Atkins is desired, and Rosenthal would consider Brandon Wood a reasonable bounty. If I’m Dan O’Dowd, I’m making that deal. Meanwhile, Bill Shaikin believes the Blue Jays would ask for Wood for Troy Glaus, but would settle for Ervin Santana and 1B/3B/DH Matt Brown. Shaikin’s source says J.P. Ricciardi is not yet prepared to trade Glaus, however.
- Rosenthal speculates that the Braves would like to add a big-time starter to get away from the current plan of "Hudson and Smoltz and pray for lightning bolts." Sorry, that was the best weather rhyme I could come up with. He mentions Rich Harden and Dontrelle Willis, accompanied by the obligatory Jarrod Saltalamacchia rumor. Poor Salty.
Stark’s Latest
Jayson Stark posted a new Rumblings and Grumblings column over at ESPN; it’s definitely worth a read. A summary of his trade rumors:
- GMs calling the Marlins have noticed that the team seems a little more open to trading Dontrelle Willis this year. Miguel Cabrera doesn’t appear to be under discussion. If the Marlins are out of the race in mid-July and a team ponies up with three legimate young regulars, they might be able to pry him away. The D’Backs or Dodgers could probably pull this off without damaging their current group too much.
- Stark says the D-Rays are considering promoting both Evan Longoria and Reid Brignac before the trading deadline, filling out the left side of their infield. Someone would have to be pushed out; maybe B.J. Upton to center, Akinori Iwamura to second, and Rocco Baldelli to another team. Stark reminds us of past interest by the Red Sox. And don’t forget all the interest from Atlanta in December.
- The Rich Harden trade rumors may just reflect frustration on Billy Beane’s part, and not actual availability.
- Stark also debates whether the Rangers would still be on the hook for $21MM if Alex Rodriguez opts out and then the Yankees re-sign him. Right now it’s an open question.
Rosenthal On Dontrelle Willis
According to Ken Rosenthal, the Marlins will probably only listen to offers for starter Dontrelle Willis if they fall out of the race by the July 31st trading deadline. He also adds the interesting fact that a new ballpark for the Marlins could actually encourage them to trade Willis. At least then a public backlash wouldn’t affect a stadium deal.
Both Willis and Miguel Cabrera figure to earn over $10MM next year, and Rosenthal says no Marlin is untouchable. The idea of trading Dontrelle first surfaced about a year ago; I would imagine the Fish have received some decent offers since then. Willis has proven to be quite durable in his four seasons; Larry Beinfest has the luxury of waiting back another year in case he gets that offer he can’t refuse from a desperate team.
Dontrelle Willis Arrested, Griffey Hurt
A couple of top baseball stories that can’t be classified as trade rumors but shouldn’t be ignored:
Dontrelle Willis was arrested this morning on a drunk driving charge and refused a breathalyzer. It’s just a shame to see a stand-up guy and role model do this. I mean we’ve all urinated on the street before but there’s no excuse for driving while intoxicated.
Meanwhile, Ken Griffey Jr. broke his left hand in a mysterious home accident. Most likely a vigorous session of Guitar Hero was involved. Griffey’s teammate, Adam Dunn, actually played the 2005 season with a broken hand. I’m not sure which bones were involved in either case, however. It’s still quite possible that Junior could be ready for spring training.
Dontrelle Willis Yankees Rumor
Are we really going to resurrect this one again? We already have the Manny and Clemens storylines repeating themselves; it’s only fitting that silly Dontrelle Willis proposals are bandied about.
George King of the New York Post remarks that the Yankees "could put together a package headed by Melky Cabrera and Humberto Sanchez to lure the Marlins into moving Dontrelle Willis out of Miami."
Those are two pretty good young players, but the Marlins could do better. Sanchez is interesting but untested, and Cabrera doesn’t seem like the center fielder the Marlins covet. At least not at that price. An affordable Willis should net a true stud prospect, a guy with star potential. It’s unclear whether George King is speculating or if this info is based on something.
MetsBlog On Dontrelle Willis
MetsBlog’s Matthew Cerrone talked to various baseball insiders and came away with some info concerning the possibility of a Dontrelle Willis trade. Cerrone’s sources indicate the Marlins want an MLB ready potential All-Star and the D’Backs and Dodgers are best equipped to satisfy that request.
Pure speculation, but I could see a deal for Matt Kemp and one of Scott Elbert/Chad Billingsley. This would be comparable to the bounty the Fish received for Josh Beckett – stud position player, stud starter. I wouldn’t make that deal if I was Ned Colletti, but that’s what I could see Larry Beinfest requiring.
Latest Mets Buzz
I spoke to my Mets source recently, so here’s the latest buzz around the team.
As has been reported in several places, Tom Glavine plans on returning to the Braves. I’m told a "handshake agreement" is in place. If the playoff excitement can’t change his mind, the Mets will take a look at Barry Zito and Mark Mulder. Orlando Hernandez may be re-signed and of course Steve Trachsel is a goner. Beyond that, the Mets have many in-house starting pitching options.
The Mets still like outfielder Lastings Milledge even with the problems he’s had in the clubhouse. The only way he’d be dealt is if Dontrelle Willis comes in return. Should Willis become available, the Mets will be all over it. If Milledge is traded to Florida, to team is high on David Dellucci for left field. Alfonso Soriano is not on the radar.
My source also tells me that there is a lot of consideration for Aaron Heilman to return to starting for 2007. They hope to re-sign Guillermo Mota but expect Darren Oliver to command too much money.
The Mets will probably pursue a trade for second base, as Valentin is not expected back. In-house options Ruben Gotay and Anderson Hernandez do not impress. Interest in Julio Lugo is minimal.
The team will take the payroll to the $105MM range. If Glavine leaves that could mean $20MM to play with.
Available Starting Pitchers: The Horses
One very important aspect in a starting pitcher is the ability to go deep into games. Teams can avoid resorting to inferior middle relievers if the starter can consistently pitch seven innings.
Only two starters this year – Brandon Webb and Roy Halladay – are averaging seven innings per start. Neither of those guys will be available this winter. Let’s take a look at some starters who are available and can save bullpens.
Jason Schmidt, in addition to being one of the NL’s best this year, has averaged 6.83 innings per start. The 33 year-old is destined for one of the offseason’s biggest contracts; perhaps similar to the deal Pedro Martinez signed.
Roy Oswalt‘s name has been popping up in trade rumors. Oswalt has averaged 6.78 innings per start this year; he’ll turn 29 soon. Oswalt has been worked hard, throwing almost 270 innings last year and 256 the year before. We see how that type of workload has affected Mark Buehrle. Oswalt’s strikeout rate has slipped to a career low 6.2 per nine innings in 2006.
Dontrelle Willis could be made available by Florida. He’s 15th in baseball with 6.61 innings per start. The 24 year-old has been abused by Joe Girardi; he leads baseball in starts with 110-121 pitches (14). In case you’re curious, Carlos Zambrano leads in starts with 122-132 pitches (5).
Groundball specialist Jake Westbrook has also been mentioned in trade rumors, with the Diamondbacks surfacing as a possible suitor. Westbrook turns 29 in September and has increased his innings per start to 6.55 this season. Westbrook is underrated; he’ll make just $5.6MM next year and is a model of consistency and durability.
Trade Rumor Roundup: 9 Days Left
Let’s see what we’ve got this morning in the non-Hillenbrand department…
This is cool: a commenter over at Viva El Birdos emailed Dontrelle Willis‘s agent, Matt Sosnick, asking about the latest trade rumor. Meanwhile, Jayson Stark was adamant in his chat Friday that Willis will not be traded.
Enough with the Mike Lowell for Jake Peavy rumors, folks. No. Freakin’. Way. I know Buster Olney mentioned that Boston must’ve been targeting a notable pitcher given how well Lowell has played this year (.297/.349/.504) but Peavy isn’t going anywhere. Plus, if you adjust Lowell’s production for PETCO Park it would be pretty close to league average for his position.
Could Mike Pelfrey be traded as a player to be named later? The answer seems to be Yes, if named in January, and only if sent to an AL team. MetsBlog tries to decipher MLB’s rules. Of course, Pelfrey is not going to be traded. But it’s good to know.
Gut feeling…I think the Brewers will trade Carlos Lee. Doug Melvin is preparing for a deal, and I think this is an opportunity he can’t pass up.
What’s with the Indians picture next to George Kottaras?
Cardinals Discussing Dontrelle Willis Trade
The Cardinals message boards are lighting up, and with good reason: there is a legitimate Dontrelle Willis rumor making the rounds.
The thread was started by a respected Cards source who goes by the handle Hawg Wild. I can confirm that this guy has a track record of success. Colby Rasmus is a 19 year-old outfielder in high Class A. He was a first-round pick and is easily the team’s best prospect now that Anthony Reyes is in the bigs. According to Rasmus’s father:
"Colby just called me and said his agent told him of conversations the cardinals were having with the possibility of Colby and a three or four other Cardinal players going to Florida in return for Dontrelle Willis. Reyes and Colby were the only 2 players Colby was told about, he did not hear who the other 2/3 players were. His words to me, ‘Man that sucks.’"
Then to quiet any doubters, St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz stepped in:
"I tried to drop a major hint in today’s column….FLA wants Reyes, Rasmus and Duncan — and that’s not all. Probably one more… possibly their pick of the Cardinals’ system."
The Cardinals need a big move; it looks like Walt Jocketty may package everything he’s got to get D-Train. Check out Viva El Birdos for analysis. After much deliberating, Viva chooses to endorse such a trade.