Mariners Make Offer To Felix
3-3-08: John Hickey says the Mariners have made an initial offer to Felix. On Friday I suggested it might take $15-17MM to buy out his three arbitration years. The Mariners wouldn’t mind buying out a free agent year while they’re at it.
3-1-08: The Seattle Mariners have approached Felix Hernandez and his agent about signing a long-term contract. According to Hernandez’ agent, Wil Polidor, the club has broached the idea but no formal offers have been made. Polidor went on to say that he will be in Arizona for the next two weeks and has plans to meet with Mariners brass.
Hernandez, who was 14-7 with a 3.92 ERA in ’07 will be eligible for arbitration for the first time following the ’08 season.
By Cork Gaines and Tim Dierkes
Long-Term Deal For Felix Hernandez?
According to John Hickey of the Seattle PI, a long-term deal for Felix Hernandez before the end of Spring Training seems possible. Hernandez won’t make much above the minimum for ’08, but maybe the Mariners can buy out his 2009-11 arbitration years at a discount. Hickey notes that Ms GM Bill Bavasi "detests the arbitration process."
The Padres bought out Chris Young‘s arb years for $13.25MM in an extension done a year ago. Around the same time, Matt Cain received about the same amount to cover his arb years (though with a club option for the third). Based on those, Felix could push for $15-17MM or so in my estimation. Thoughts?
Mariners May Lock Up Several Players
I noticed a John Hickey article from three days ago that hasn’t been mentioned here at MLBTR. Hickey notes that the Mariners like to sign players to extensions during spring if possible. He assesses the chances of extensions for Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, Kenji Johjima, Raul Ibanez, and Richie Sexson in the article.
Johjima, Ibanez, and Sexson are all set to reach free agency after the ’08 season. Johjima seems the most likely to stay, though prospect Jeff Clement may be close to big league ready. Sexson is as good as gone, while the decision on Ibanez will likely hinge on ’08. I’m not sure how Jose Vidro‘s vesting option for ’09 works; Ibanez may be best served filling his DH spot.
Hickey expects to see Felix locked up before the season begins. A deal would buy out his three arbitration years (2009-11), at least. The Ms could also incorporate the ’08 season into the contract. The Angels bought out John Lackey‘s three arb years for $17MM, but that was two years ago. Chris Young‘s deal covered his final four years of team control for $14.5MM; that was signed a year ago. Matt Cain‘s contract may also be a comparable.
Hickey does see Bedard getting an extension; he can become a free agent after the ’09 season. Bedard recently signed at $7MM for ’08. His deal could be massive, in the $18-19MM per year range.
Blog Gets Through To Felix Hernandez
If you’ve watched any Felix Hernandez starts prior to today, you probably noticed a pattern. He tries to establish his fastball early on, throwing the pitch constantly. His heater is a fine pitch and plenty fast, but he leaves it up in the zone sometimes. And a 96 mph fastball can be easy to hit when you see ten of them in a row (relatively speaking – obviously I still couldn’t hit it). Hernandez has an amazing offspeed repertoire, especially his curveball.
The die-hard fans at U.S.S. Mariner have been painfully aware of this trend for quite some time. Frustration boiled over on June 27th, when Dave Cameron wrote a post: An Open Letter To Rafael Chaves. Chaves is the Mariners’ pitching coach. The letter pleaded for Chaves to make Felix mix up his pitches early on.
Cameron probably never anticipated that Chaves would actually read the letter. But he did, and the pitching coach actually gave a copy to Felix for him to read. Chaves has been trying to hammer this point home with Hernandez, but the letter helped reinforce the need for better pitch selection. Hernandez tossed eight scoreless innings today, crediting the letter for his early success. How cool is that? Blogs actually can make a difference. Open sentence to Dave Cameron: Mariners fans, fantasy baseball owners, and baseball fans in general thank you for getting through to The King. Next up, teach Rich Hill a third pitch.
Mets News and Notes
- The Mets haven’t played baseball since Saturday and the process have not only reshuffled the rotation going forward, but it’s also allowed Rick Peterson four additional bullpen sessions with missing link Oliver Perez. His grasp of the strike zone is in direct correlation with the Mets grasp on the division. The move will mean the Mets go with Perez and rookie Mike Pelfrey against the Braves at Shea over the weekend.
- One of David Wright‘s brothers, Stephen Wright, is a student at Virginia Tech University and had a class in the ill fated building that afternoon. There was a brief scare for the Mets’ third baseman as it was hard to track his brother down amidst the panic.
- Curt Schilling thinks Felix Hernandez has better tools then Dwight Gooden circa 1984.
- Sports Illustrated’s baseball blog "Fungoes", takes a pessimistic look around the NL East.
By Nik Kolidas
Felix 1, Daisuke 0
Daisuke Matsuzaka received all the hype from ESPN entering tonight’s game. After all, it was his Fenway debut. He tossed a solid seven innings, allowing three runs to the Mariners. He retired Ichiro every time, even striking him out once. Matsuzaka also threw one high and tight to Ichiro, and it wasn’t an accident. Nor was his HBP of Jose Guillen, in my opinion. Kenji Johjima, who’s had plenty of ABs against Matsuzaka, smacked a couple of doubles for the Mariners.
But the big story was 21 year-old Felix Hernandez, who carried a no-hitter into the 8th inning. I was hoping he’d quiet Boston down, and it was incredible to watch him carve up their lineup in "radiant HD." Before the game, I couldn’t resist the +162 Bodog was giving for a bet on Felix. Something tells me they won’t set the line there again for him, no matter who he’s facing. (Some of you may remember my now-defunct website DailyBaseballPicks.com. Turns out I had $39 sitting around in my Bodog account from that little experiment).
ESPN’s announcers at least avoided the term "no-hitter" for most of the game, although they just said "screw it" around the 7th inning and said it a few times. Not cool, guys. Still, I must say I enjoy the pitching insight added by Orel Hershiser. ESPN’s gun was blatantly at least 3 mph fast – Joel Pineiro wasn’t throwing 94 – but Felix was obviously dealing. The guy’s sliders and changeups are on par with most pitchers’ fastballs. Barely anything left the infield or the ground against him, though Jose Lopez lended some excellent glovework at second base.
After his one-hitter on the big stage tonight, we can safely say Felix Hernandez has arrived. You have to wonder – if Felix pitches to his 90th percentile PECOTA – a 2.74 ERA – and does it for 215 innings, can the Mariners ride that to the playoffs? In the King, they have one of the most valuable commodities in the game.
Ms Could Sign Felix Long-Term
I mentioned yesterday that Felix Hernandez had been hoping for a long-term deal rather than the renewal he received. Apparently the Mariners do not consider it too early to talk – the Tacoma News Tribune reports that the Mariners are "deep in negotiations on a long-term deal" with Felix’s agent.
Both sides should be happy with four years and $10MM guaranteed, with a fifth year option. The Ms should pounce if Felix’s agent is anywhere in this ballpark.
I’ve projected a 3.39 ERA and 1.22 WHIP for Hernandez in my 2007 RotoAuthority Fantasy Guide.
Young Players Covet Long-Term Security
Locking up promising young players to avoid their arbitration years has become all the rage these days. It can be argued as win-win, as the player trades some risk for a smaller AAV than he could get going year to year.
- The Padres are looking to give first baseman Adrian Gonzalez a long-term deal after a contract renewal near the league minimum. They did this with Jake Peavy, though Kevin Towers renewed him in after each of his first two seasons.
- The Nationals will meet with Ryan Zimmerman‘s agent tomorrow. Barry Svrluga thinks David Wright‘s contract could be the benchmark.
- Felix Hernandez told John Hickey he’d been hoping for a multiyear deal with the Mariners rather than a renewal. If he improves upon his 2006 season and stays healthy, he might get around four years and $10MM. The Mariners have actually had talks with second baseman Jose Lopez regarding a multiyear deal.
- Keep in mind that it’s definitely not a risk-free proposition for the team. Look no further than the four-year, $11MM contract given to Royals shortstop Angel Berroa following his Rookie of the Year 2003 season.
Is Johjima Hurting Ms Pitchers?
I haven”t gotten to watch any Mariners games yet this year, so I can’t speak to this directly. But a knowledgable friend emailed me this observation recently:
"Kenji Johjima is not framing pitches well at all, and is giving away location by setting up too early…can’t believe he’s getting with that so far–this won’t help Seattle pitching staff."
He speculated that Felix Hernandez won’t be able to post Cy Young type numbers this season because of Johjima.
Johjima can’t be blamed for Hernandez’s shin splints or lack of command in his first two starts. But I was wondering – have any Mariners fans noticed this behavior in Johjima? I haven’t seen anything to this effect mentioned over at U.S.S. Mariner, but I haven’t read through the comments.
Felix Hernandez Projection
Check out my Felix Hernandez projection for 2006 over at RotoAuthority. These always bring about good debates, so get to it!
You can purchase projections for 573 other players and much more in the 2006 RotoAuthority Fantasy Baseball Guide for the early-bird special price of just $9.99.