K-Rod Loses Case
According to Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times, Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez lost his arbitration case. He’ll make $10MM rather than the $12.5MM he wanted.
K-Rod might be looking for something like $50MM over four years when he reaches free agency after the season, which would be a record amount for a reliever. Angels owner Arte Moreno won’t close the door on him, and notes that the Angels have tried a couple of times to sign their closer.
Odds and Ends: Roberts, Garcia, Crede
Today’s assortment of links.
- Gary Sheffield is not fond of Scott Boras.
- Arte Moreno and the Angels aren’t closing the door on K-Rod yet.
- Turns out Brian Roberts left camp because of a possible kidney stone.
- From Small Ball To The Long Ball has all kinds of cool data that I haven’t seen elsewhere. For example, average initial pitch speed for pitchers. Dustin McGowan‘s fastball: 96.11mph. Tim Wakefield‘s: 75.62mph.
- Seems that Freddy Garcia might wait a few months before signing.
- Andrew Baggarly says the Giants consider Joe Crede a possible long-term piece even with his impending free agency. So maybe if they get him and he stays healthy they’ll look to extend him. Baggarly speculates that a guy like Fred Lewis (who is out of options) could work for a Crede swap.
K-Rod Looking For Rivera Money?
On Saturday, we discussed the Francisco Rodriguez situation. He’s been historically good for a closer his age, and his next contract could be record-breaking. That contract doesn’t seem likely to come from the Angels.
K-Rod has arrived in camp, and he admits that ’08 is probably his last season with L.A. Mike DiGiovanna speaks of repeated rejected extension attempts by the Angels. After the ’07 season, the Angels offered something near three years and $34MM. Rodriguez unsurprisingly turned this down, as it’s $11MM short of the Mariano Rivera money he craves. GM Tony Reagins is thinking about a future that may include Kelvim Escobar or Ervin Santana in the pen.
2008 will be huge for Rodriguez, whose post-break 3.45 ERA and 5.6 BB/9 raise red flags for a team considering committing $40MM+ to him.
K-Rod May Leave Angels After ’08
It’s looking more and more like 2008 will be Francisco Rodriguez’s last season with the Angels. His ’08 contract situation is not said to be the reason he’s late to camp. But the two sides are a solid $2.5MM apart and Rodriguez will try to become the first player to win a hearing this year on Thursday. Mike DiGiovanna thinks the hearing "could lead to animosity."
Rodriguez recently turned 26. He has a career ERA of 2.37 in 383 innings, with 146 saves under his belt. That’s the most saves in baseball history for a pitcher before his 26th birthday. Gregg Olson is next with 131, then Chad Cordero with 128.
Currently scheduled to join K-Rod in the free agent closer class of 2008-09: Joe Nathan, Brad Lidge, Jason Isringhausen, Trevor Hoffman, and Eric Gagne. My very unofficial research says B.J. Ryan received the largest-ever total for a reliever in November of 2005 with $47MM.
Rumor Royalty: Mike DiGiovanna (Angels)
Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times has been named Rumor Royalty for the Angels; he is the best source of Halos hot stove buzz. He was kind enough to answer three questions for MLBTR.
MLBTR: What do you make of the Paul Konerko rumors? Do you think the Angels and Sox have had post-Meetings discussions about him, despite Kenny Williams’ claim otherwise?
DiGiovanna: I had heard the White Sox and Angels might be up to something four or five days before that report came out. I made several calls looking into the matter, as did my counterpart from the Chicago Tribune, White Sox beat writer Mark Gonzales, and after two or three days, we determined that there had been exploratory conversations between the teams during the winter meetings but nothing substantive since. Neither of us decided to write anything on it. Then a report was published claiming the Angels and White Sox were discussing a deal that would send Howie Kendrick and Ervin Santana to Chicago for Konerko. I was very skeptical about it because the Angels would not trade Kendrick straight up for Konerko, let alone Kendrick AND Ervin Santana. Then that afternoon, Kenny Williams shot down the rumor forcefully, saying on the record that there had been no talks with the Angels since the winter meetings and that he hasn’t discussed Konerko. I know GMs don’t always tell the whole truth, but when a GM knocks down a rumor so forcefully, I tend to believe him.
I know Angels Manager Mike Scioscia likes Konerko a lot, but Konerko will be 32 this season, he’s got three years and some $30 million left on his contract, and I don’t think his power projects as well outside of U.S. Cellular Field, a known hitter’s haven. The Angels might get almost as much production, though without as many homers, from first baseman Casey Kotchman for a lot less money over the next three years.
MLBTR: Will the Angels will make a push to sign Francisco Rodriguez to an extension during the season? What kind of dollars and years would you expect?
DiGiovanna: New GM Tony Reagins does not seem at all motivated to secure Rodriguez to a long-term deal, and since the two sides were unable to come to terms on a 2008 contract before exchanging arbitration figures last week—Rodriguez wants $12.5 million; the Angels offered $10 million—that’s an indication that they are still far apart on a multiyear deal. Rodriguez believes he is one of the top closers in the game and thinks he should be paid like one, so I would not be surprised if he is seeking a deal similar to the three-year, $45-million contract Mariano Rivera signed this winter. The Angels like Rodriguez and would love to lock him up for a few years, but I don’t think they want to pay him $15 million a year. I think Rodriguez will become a free agent after the season, the Angels will move Scot Shields into the closer role and, if there is still no spot for him in the rotation, convert Ervin Santana to a set-up man.
MLBTR: Is Ervin Santana the odd man out as far as the Angels’ six starters? Do you expect him to be with the organization on Opening Day?
DiGiovanna: Barring injury to any of the other starters, yes, I think Santana will be the odd man out unless he has a phenomenal spring training and Joe Saunders struggles. John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Jon Garland and Jered Weaver are rotation locks, so Saunders and Santana will battle for the fifth spot. But in talking to Angels scouts and front-office executives, I get the sense they think Saunders—now that Bartolo Colon is out of the picture—has earned a big league spot, that he has done all he can in the minor leagues, and that another demotion to triple-A Salt Lake would be detrimental to the left-hander. They also like having at least one left-hander in their rotation.
However, I think Santana will not only be with the organization on opening day but on the big league roster. He has shown during his brief stints as a reliever that he can be very effective coming out of the bullpen, and he would be valuable as a swing man, a guy who could pitch long relief or spot start in case of injury. The Angels also may use this season to start grooming Santana into a short reliever.
K-Rod Cheating?
I know it’s not a trade rumor, but this is worth a look. Derek Zumsteg, author of The Cheater’s Guide To Baseball, may have uncovered some shady behavior on the part of Angels’ closer Francisco Rodriguez. He’s got screenshots of the mysterious substance over at his blog. Derek mentions in the comments that the Rangers complained to the Commissioner’s Office after the game.
It seems that thus far, the mainstream media either didn’t notice the story or chose to ignore it. Halos Heaven comments on the possibility, asking why teams didn’t uncover this years earlier. The problem is that everyone affiliated with this little situation seems to root for an AL-West team, so biases may sneak through.
UPDATE: The Rangers found out about the allegations yesterday, but did not contact the Commissioner’s Office. Through some other means, perhaps just by browsing the web, MLB found out about it today and is investigating.
Angels Look To Lock Up K-Rod
According to Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, one of the biggest priorities for the Angels this offseason will be locking up closer Francisco Rodriguez to a long-term deal. K-Rod is due for free agency after the ’08 season, and the Yankees are already said to be eyeing him up as the heir to Mariano Rivera.
This year is Rodriguez’s age 24 season, and he’s already accumulated 100 saves. He’s showing the best command of his career, though the side effect is that he’s got the worst hit rate of his career. Still, 6.5 hits per nine is pretty damn good. It’s also apparent that Rodriguez is allowing more flyballs than ever. Probably not a big deal, as his home run rate remains solid.
The elephant in the room, at least in my mind, is Rodriguez’s delivery. Said Will Carroll in February:
"It’s incredibly hard to predict player injuries, though if you were going to put money on anyone’s elbow blowing up, the safe bet would be on K-Rod. There’s almost nothing mechanically right with his delivery and he showed all sorts of indicators last year with a tender elbow, a forearm strain, and an obvious difficulty throwing his fastball."
This season, Rodriguez has experienced nothing worse than a hamstring cramp. I asked Will today: will K-Rod’s contract extension bomb? Do the red flags he mentioned in the preseason still portend elbow surgery? Will likened Rodriguez to a lit firecracker that doesn’t go off: "You’d sit and wait, wondering if it was a dud or a long fuse. You’d go up to it slowly, ready to dive away if it went off."
Will did point out that Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA system likes him – it suggests K-Rod will be worth anywhere from $10-15MM annually through 2010. Obviously, only time will tell.