The Hanshin Tigers of Nippon Professional Baseball are weighing whether to make their ace, Hiroto Saiki, available to MLB teams via the posting system, according to a Japanese-language report from Yahoo! Japan. The report notes that the 26-year-old Saiki (27 in November) has previously expressed a desire to pitch in MLB by his late 20s. The Tigers have not made any announcements, and it is not guaranteed that a posting — even if one does eventually occur — would happen this offseason.
NPB players do not qualify for international free agency until they’ve reached nine years of service time. (They can reach domestic free agency and sign with a different NPB team after eight years.) In order to make the move to MLB before reaching the nine-year service mark, players require their NPB team to make them available through the posting system. That ensures the NPB club financial compensation tied to the player’s MLB contract. The Japanese team needs to weigh that against the roster hit that comes with losing the player.
Saiki has pitched in parts of seven NPB seasons but wasn’t fully established at the top level until 2023. He’s reportedly still four years away from international free agent eligibility. The Tigers could wait another offseason or two to post him. Different NPB teams have varying levels of willingness to honor players’ posting interest. Some teams more highly value the reputational boost that could come with that.
There’s also a financial benefit to posting a star player while he’s in his mid-late 20s. They’re likelier to command a long-term deal with a larger guarantee that raises the proportional fee that the MLB signing team owes to the NPB club. The posting fee is calculated as 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of spending above $50MM. Saiki is old enough (older than 24) and has enough professional experience that his contract would not be capped by MLB’s amateur bonus pool restrictions the way that Roki Sasaki’s was last winter.
Saiki, a 6’2″ right-hander, is coming off his third consecutive season with a sub-2.00 earned run average in Japan’s extremely pitcher-friendly league. He tallied 157 innings of 1.55 ERA ball across 24 starts. That run prevention isn’t matched by huge swing-and-miss stuff. Saiki’s 19.2% strikeout rate is an almost exact match for the Central League average and a few points below the typical MLB mark. Former big league depth pitchers Jon Duplantier (1.39 ERA, 32.4% strikeout rate) and Anthony Kay (1.76 ERA, 21.5% strikeout rate) have posted similar or stronger rate metrics to those that Saiki has turned in this season.
Still, that doesn’t mean Saiki wouldn’t draw plenty of attention from MLB evaluators if he were available within the next year or two. He faced the Dodgers in an exhibition start at the Tokyo Dome in mid-March. Saiki fired five scoreless innings of one-hit ball while recording seven punchouts (including fanning Shohei Ohtani, Teoscar Hernández and Freddie Freeman). His fastball sat in the low-to-mid 90s and he showed a swing-and-miss splitter that landed around 85 mph. Saiki’s mid-70s curveball was a clear third pitch. After the game, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts opined that the righty showed “major league stuff” (via Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic).
Regardless of Hanshin’s decision on Saiki, there’ll be a few intriguing NPB players who make the jump this offseason. Slugging corner infielder Munetaka Murakami and back-end starter Kona Takahashi will be posted. It’s expected that infielder Kazuma Okamoto and right-hander Tatsuya Imai could also be available. NPB teams generally don’t make postings official until early December, so it’s possible there’ll be a few other candidates who emerge over the next couple months.
