Santana Counters Twins’ Offer
Sid Hartman was correct – Joe Christensen confirms today that the Twins did offer Johan Santana a five-year, $93MM deal (18.6MM annually). The pact was designed to top Carlos Zambrano‘s by $1.5MM. Problem is that Santana isn’t 1.6% better than Zambrano. He’s a lot better than Z.
Santana countered by asking for $126MM, according to Christensen. His article implies that Santana asked for seven years in the counterproposal, since Santana’s agent cited Barry Zito‘s deal and the dollar amount is the same. The Twins balked at the counteroffer and expect to trade Santana. This doesn’t compute, because the sides seem close. I wonder – maybe Santana actually asked for $126MM over five years? Santana could be a $25MM man on the open market, and maybe he’s not offering a hometown discount. If Christensen’s source told him the number of years, he would’ve put that in the article.
Michael Silverman notes that the Red Sox will certainly be involved if the Twins start entertaining offers. An offer of Coco Crisp, Clay Buchholz or Jon Lester, and a third solid prospect might be their proposal. Seems that the Yanks might offer Melky Cabrera and Phil Hughes, while the Mets would start with Carlos Gomez.
Christensen’s article also adds that the Twins recently swapped contract proposals with closer Joe Nathan. Even at a discount Nathan would have to ask for four years, $40MM.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Cabrera, Haren, Barrett
Rumor guru Ken Rosenthal checks in with a new column this afternoon.
- The White Sox are legitimately in the mix for Miguel Cabrera, but many stars would have to align for it to get done. Suitors with better prospects would have to balk, and the Sox would have to part with Josh Fields and Gio Gonzalez. Kenny Williams might even have to cash Jon Garland in and turn around and flip that prospect in a Cabrera deal. Regardless, it’s clear that Williams is once again thinking big.
- Let’s face it: the Twins aren’t retaining free agents Torii Hunter or Carlos Silva. You gotta know when to fold ’em – maybe it’s best to punt 2008 and trade both Johan Santana and Joe Nathan now. Rosenthal says that philosophy is gaining some steam in the organization. Both Santana and Nathan are only under contract for one year, but both are signed well below market prices. That means that any mildly competitive team could entertain the notion of acquiring one of them for a big boost. Baseball Prospectus values Santana at $25MM and 8.1 wins next year (he earns $13.25MM). They put Nathan at $15MM and 6 wins (he earns $6MM).
- The A’s are another team that could take one step back in order to take two steps forward. Billy Beane has Joe Blanton and Dan Haren, two solid young pitchers each under team control for three seasons. That’s a big advantage over the other frontline names who might be available. Santana and A.J. Burnett have one year. Jake Peavy and Erik Bedard have two. Haren for three years is huge. Blanton is under team control but Haren is actually under contract.
- The Rays have gotten in touch with Michael Barrett‘s people. Will Barrett’s Type A status become an issue? Only if the Padres dare offer him arbitration. If I had to guess I’d say they won’t offer, but it’s a close call. Troy E. Renck recently mentioned Barrett has drawn interest from six clubs, perhaps including the Rockies and Marlins. I’m sure the Rockies would not give up their #25 overall pick to the Padres just to sign Barrett. The Marlins’ sixth overall pick next year is protected.
Twins Exercise Nathan’s Option
An easy decision for Bill Smith – the Twins exercised Joe Nathan‘s 2008 option for $6MM today. Nathan will earn about half the salary he’s worth, but we haven’t heard any complaints from him.
The two sides have talked on and off about an extension for some time now. I have to think 4/40 would be the bare minimum home team discount Nathan would accept. Spending even that kind of money on a closer doesn’t seem to be the Twins’ style, so maybe they will explore a trade. It also wouldn’t be surprising to see Nathan just play out his last season as Torii Hunter did.
Twins Hot Stove: Hunter, Nathan
It’ll be an interesting offseason for the Twins, who have a new GM and two coveted free agents in Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva. Here’s the latest.
- Charley Walters quotes Hunter as saying he hasn’t had any contract offers from the Twins since the end of the season. In August, the Twins reportedly offered a three-year, $45MM contract to Hunter. They’re apparently open to adding a fourth year, while Hunter would take 5/75 from the Twins. There’s still a chance he’s re-signed, but Hunter says the chances decrease the longer the team waits.
- According to Tom Powers, the Twins have contingency plans in place in the event they can’t sign Hunter or Silva. The 2008 payroll is expected to increase. It stood at $71.4MM on Opening Day ’07. They’ll need to spend at least $4MM extra just from current escalating contracts. Also in Powers’ article, GM Bill Smith notes the team’s continued focus on left-handed hitters who can use a short right field to their advantage.
- Joe Nathan’s $6MM option for ’08 will be picked up, a no-brainer if there ever was one. Nathan and the Twins will discuss a contract extension as well.
Torre’s Status Will Influence Rivera
Mariano Rivera isn’t a sure thing to return to the Yankees in 2008. He’s not happy about Joe Torre’s unknown status, and he doesn’t seem thrilled that the Yanks passed on their opportunity to re-sign him earlier this year.
Jon Heyman’s best guess yesterday: the Yanks re-sign Rivera for two years and $26MM, plus an option year for 2010. That seems fairly reasonable to me; it’s still hard to picture a closer earning more than $13MM. But Rivera may listen to offers, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see a team offer him three years guaranteed.
One stopper who could average such a salary in his next deal is Joe Nathan. Nathan will be well underpaid at $6MM next year; he’s arguably the game’s best closer. From 2004-07, Nathan has a 1.94 ERA and 11.3 K/9 in 282.3 innings. He’s also got 160 saves over that four-year span. If given an extension window, would the Yankees part with a Robinson Cano this winter to get Nathan?
Rosenthal’s Latest: Bonds, Nathan, Barrett
Ken Rosenthal has a new rumor column up. Feels like it’s been a while.
- Rosenthal thinks it’s a sign of desperation that the Angels would entertain signing Barry Bonds, who doesn’t fit in with their club. His OBP would fit in anywhere, but he would tie up the DH spot at the expense of Juan Rivera and Vladimir Guerrero.
- The Cubs are expected to bring Daryle Ward back at $1.2MM (makes sense) and Steve Trachsel at $4.75MM (questionable). Cubs fans can only hope Trachsel would be considered a tradeable asset, as Rosenthal opines. Rosenthal also quashes the idea of trading Aramis Ramirez, both because of his full no-trade clause and the team’s impending sale.
- David Eckstein is expected to leave the Cardinals, no big surprise. Rosenthal reiterates recent rumors connecting him to the White Sox, Tigers, and Mets.
- Rosenthal’s idea for Bill Smith and the Twins: keep Johan Santana this winter, and instead trade the $6MM super-closer Joe Nathan. Teams would line up for him, and Pat Neshek wouldn’t be a bad replacement.
- Do you think Michael Barrett could be a free agent bargain? Rosenthal talked to one exec who feels this way, and it is a good point if he can bounce back to .280/.350/.480 for five million bucks.
Walters On Morneau, Santana, Nathan
Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press has some Twins rumors for us today in his Don’t Print That feature.
- Walters says Justin Morneau would be agreeable to a six-year contract if the Twins are interested. Walters wrote back in March that the Twins were looking to add a fifth option year to Morneau’s contract at $14MM. Morneau thought a deal was "pretty close" at that time but of course it hasn’t happened. By my calculations a six-year contract would buy out three years of free agency. So it wouldn’t be anything like Joe Mauer‘s 4/33 deal.
- The Twins are expected to make a five-year offer to Johan Santana but they might have to go to six to get something done. Santana gets a full no-trade clause for 2008 if he finishes top three in the Cy Young voting this year. Otherwise he can choose 12 teams he can’t be traded to.
- Walters thinks there’s no chance Joe Nathan stays with the Twins past 2008. Nathan did have some positive talks with the Twins back in April.
Ringolsby On Lidge, Otsuka, And More
Esteemed Denver Post writer Tracy Ringolsby drops a few trade rumors on us in this morning’s column.
- Ringolsby writes that the Padres have some rainy-day money saved up to be used specifically for one of three players, if they are available and the team is contending. The players are future free agents Ichiro Suzuki, Andruw Jones, and Torii Hunter. I’m not sure how Mike Cameron would feel about that, and whether it would affect his contract negotiations. Hopefully he wouldn’t mind moving to a corner.
- Should Eric Gagne prove himself healthy and reliable (a long shot), the Red Sox, Indians, and Marlins have interest in acquiring Akinori Otsuka. In my opinion the Phillies might want in on that too. The Mets and Diamondbacks have expressed interest in the past. I’m a bit skeptical that the Marlins would take on another $3MM reliever after the Jorge Julio debacle.
- The same three teams Ringolsby mentioned for Otsuka would have interest in Brad Lidge if available. Also, some major connections between Lidge and the Rockies are described. And Buster Olney mentions the Blue Jays as another possibility in his blog today.
- Ringolsby quotes Joe Nathan as saying his agents have had positive initial talks with the Twins. Yesterday, Jon Heyman of SI.com had a source indicating that talks with Nathan had slowed.
Twins Will Negotiate In-Season
La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune quotes a high-ranking Twins official in saying that the club will ignore their own policy and negotiate contracts during the season. In particular, they’ll continue to try to extend Joe Nathan and Johan Santana. Neal also cites precedents where the Twins bent policies, whether regarding contracts or beards.
We last heard about Nathan a few days ago, when Charley Walters reported "positive discussions" on a deal that could run through 2011. A week prior to that Nathan said he didn’t think a deal would get done this year.
Santana wants to stay, and was quoted saying "the sooner the better." It’s just a matter of how much of a discount he’ll concede to the Twins.
Twins, Nathan Talking Extension
According to Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, Joe Nathan and the Twins have had "positive discussions about a contract extension."
The deal could run through 2011, enabling Nathan to spend at least a couple of seasons at the new ballpark. It sounds like Nathan won’t let talks run into Spring Training 2008, which will precede his walk year.
By 2009, the Twins probably will have already gotten the best of Nathan’s career. But as long as he stays healthy he should be closing when he’s 40. His skills could deteriorate and he’d still be a top five closer. If PECOTA were to sign him for 2009-11, it’d offer about $34MM. Since he likes Minnesota and wants to stay, the Twins might be able to complete a deal in that range.