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Rockies Looking For Starting Pitching

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7:22pm: Walt Jocketty did not deny the Fogg-Rockies rumor when asked.  Maybe he’ll be a little more loose with the rumors than Krivsky was.

9:18am: Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post has details on the Rockies’ pursuit of starting pitching.  Their search includes some familiar names.

  • Josh Fogg seems like the most likely acquisition; he’s a DFA candidate for the Reds.  Fogg received an early one-year offer from the Rockies this winter that was later pulled back.
  • Julian Tavarez, another former Rockie, is on the radar again.  The Red Sox don’t seem to have much use for him.
  • Kevin Millwood figures to be a popular name in the coming months.  Renck says the Rangers want "the right players in return, not salary relief."  Millwood makes $8.5MM in ’08, $11MM in ’09, and $12MM in ’10 (if he reaches certain innings incentives).  He also has a limited no-trade clause.
  • Rich Harden may come off the DL soon, but he’d have to remain healthy for probably a month before teams become seriously interested.
  • Renck says Joe Blanton is "currently not available."  The A’s are the current Wild Card leader, after all.

Odds and Ends: Gallardo, NPB, Braves

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Today’s link collection…

  • Check out the latest MLB Roundup video.  The crew hands out April awards, assesses Billy Beane’s gameplan, and looks at Jeff Ma’s third-place Tout Wars team.
  • RotoAuthority helps Yovani Gallardo owners pick up the pieces and find a replacement (he has a torn ACL).  The Brewers have guys they can plug in but Gallardo seemed primed for a stellar season.  They’ll keep an eye on the trade market.
  • Mike Hampton could retire, but it’s highly unlikely that he’ll abandon the rest of his ’08 salary.
  • Nippon Professional Baseball might shorten the tenure needed for free agency, except for those looking to go overseas.  Players hoping to jump from Japan to MLB would still have to serve nine years or be posted.
  • In the sidebar of this article, Ken Rosenthal suggests that Frank Wren will explore the trade market for starting pitching but won’t overpay for mediocrity.  Tracy Ringolsby wonders whether the Braves will consider re-acquiring Kevin Millwood.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Crede, Lofton, Millwood, Dunn

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Ken Rosenthal has a new Full Count video up; let’s discuss.

  • Despite his .268/.330/.537 start, the White Sox would still entertain trading Joe Crede if it’d help the big league team.  This is a change from their apparent springtime willingness to deal him for prospects.  The most likely desire would be pitching, if the Sox can find a suitor.
  • Jake Peavy put on his GM hat, suggesting the Padres sign Kenny Lofton.  Rosenthal likes the idea, but notes that Kevin Towers will first turn to his farm system.  I discussed some future trade candidates for San Diego in my latest video mailbag.
  • Rosenthal suggests Kevin Millwood’s contract will be an obstacle in trading him.  He earns $8.5MM this year, $11MM in ’09, and a fairly achievable $12MM vesting option for ’10.  Plus there’s a limited no-trade clause.
  • Walt Jocketty’s biggest test this year might be deciding whether to trade Ken Griffey Jr. and/or Adam Dunn.  They both have no-trade clauses to deal with; even after June 15th Dunn’s includes most high-revenue teams.

Rangers Expected To Be Sellers

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At 7-15, the Rangers have the worst record in the American League.  Team president Nolan Ryan doesn’t seem ready for a fire sale yet, but you have to figure the Rangers will be clear sellers come June.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently suggested Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Hank Blalock, Frank Catalanotto, and Milton Bradley as trade candidates.  As Sherman says, Millwood could be a hot commodity.  He looks healthy and would certainly help a contender.  Gerald Laird, Marlon Byrd, Jamey Wright, and Joaquin Benoit could also be dealt. 

The Rangers already have the fourth-best farm system in baseball according to Baseball America; Jon Daniels’ team could climb even higher with another bountiful July.

Rangers Rumors: Lamb, Gagne, Prior

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As usual, Evan Grant has the latest Rangers hot stove buzz.

  • New acquisition Chris Shelton may see some time at first base for the Rangers.  As far as left-handed hitters, the Rangers’ options are Mike Lamb, Sean Casey, and in-house choice Frank Catalanotto.
  • Free agents Eric Gagne, LaTroy Hawkins, Corey Patterson, and Milton Bradley are still on the radar.
  • Contrary to previous reports, the Rangers aren’t interested in Mark Prior.
  • The Rangers don’t want to move Vicente Padilla or Kevin Millwood as straight-up salary dumps.

Cardinals Rumors: Rolen, Fogg, Lee, Millwood

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UPDATE, 12-5-07 at 1:55pm: Heyman says the impasse between the Cards and Brewers in the Rolen talks was the second player coming over with Chris Capuano.  He thinks the two teams will revisit these discussions in the future.

FROM 12-5-07 at 7:29am:

As usual, Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has all the insight into the Cardinals’ situation.

  • It doesn’t look like Scott Rolen is going anywhere before the Meetings end, and GM John Mozeliak may have to start the season with him.  The talks with the Brewers were disheartening, apparently.  The Cards don’t think there should be a discount.  There is a glimmer of hope in that Mozeliak may talk again with the Dodgers about Rolen today.
  • On the starting pitching front, the Cardinals are being realistic.  That means they’re looking into signing Josh Fogg.  Fogg will probably get a three-year, $21MM deal or so.  Other starters on the radar include Cliff Lee and a new name, Kevin Millwood.  Millwood will earn $8.5MM in ’08, $11MM in ’09, and $12MM in ’10.  He has a limited no-trade clause, and the club may be able to void the deal after ’09 if he misses certain innings targets.
  • Seems odd that the Cards are pursuing guys like the above but are willing to deal Anthony Reyes.  As we learned yesterday, the Indians and Padres like the young hurler.  The Phillies have coveted him for a while as well.

Buzz Around The Game

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Let’s see what we’ve got going on today in a potpourri-style format.

As predicted, Eric Byrnes was non-tendered last night.  I can’t possibly think of a better way for the Cubs to turn the Jacque Jones signing into a positive.  If you sum up Byrnes and Jones’ salaries, you’ll be getting solid stats from RF for the price.  Assuming Dusty Baker understands what a platoon is and how all that works. 

Of course, it’s probably one more roster spot than the Cubs wanted to use on this type of thing since they already have John Mabry.  But Mabry can back up Aramis Ramirez, and the Cubs can carry one less pitcher and make it work.  I put a word in to a Cubs source of mine, and he agreed that the idea makes sense (who wouldn’t agree) and mentioned that the Cubs have liked Byrnes in the past. 

UPDATE: Just talked to a second Cubs source, and he echoed the sentiment held by many readers of the site: Hendry didn’t give Jones $16MM to platoon him.  He’s a full-timer for the most part.

Kirby Arnold reports that the Mariners offered Gil Meche to the Cubs for Corey Patterson.  At first, I said, "Sure, why not."  But then I looked at Meche’s numbers,  and I realized there’s no way he can help the ballclub.  When a pitcher loses his ability to strike batters out, as Meche may have, he has to counter the increased hits he’s surrendering with good control.  Or the ability to keep the ball in the park.  Meche appears to have none of these traits, and would be a frustrating spot starter who would allow tons of baserunners. I might rather have Josh Fogg at this point.  There’s got to be something slightly better out there for the Cubs.

Alfonso Soriano won’t move off second base for the Nationals and is pretty much raising a stink about being dealt to Washington.  Let’s see here, are there any teams with GMs dumber than Jim Bowden who might make a trade for Sori?  Dan O’Brien’s club doesn’t have a need for a 2B; Placido Polanco is firmly entrenched in Detroit…maybe Littlefield is interested?

Is Millwood really getting a five year deal from someone?  Insane.  Incredible timing to have your 2.86 ERA season.  Best timing award for the NL: Todd Jones.

My Mets guy is saying the club is still talking to the Dodgers about Jeff Kent, but right now it’s a "pipe dream."  Doesn’t seem like the two teams will agree on anything.  The Mets still have some faith in Victor Zambrano (or maybe they’re just trying to save face), but Omar feels that after adding Julian Tavarez his bullpen will be pretty much set.

The Mariners seem desperate to get rid of Jeremy Reed after pushing hard to obtain him for Freddy Garcia.  I guess they don’t understand that center fielders are hard to find and Reed will get better.  After the masterstroke that was the Johjima signing, Bill Bavasi has taken a step backward with Jarrod Washburn.

   

MetsBlog: Millwood Close To Signing With Mariners

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Now that the Burnett deal is done, Scott Boras can get to work with his stable of arms.  Seems that the Mariners got the ball rolling yesterday for Kevin Millwood at four years, $44MM.  If that’s the starting point, I’m frightened by where the bidding will end.

I would’ve expected this thing to drag on for at least a week, but MetsBlog is reporting that Millwood is close to signing with the Mariners.  Matthew Cerrone also mentions that "most believe Seattle’s offer is for four years."  I’m thinking it might take $48MM to make up for the lack of a fifth year.

There’s plenty of debate about which pitcher was the best on the market, Burnett or Millwood.  Many side with Burnett based on potential, while others cite Millwood’s longer track record of success.

But really, does Millwood’s track record indicate he has four solid complete seasons on the way?  Tough question.  Based on his last three seasons, he may be good for 180 innings in each of the next four seasons.  On the other hand, Millwood decided against elbow surgery at the end of a shaky season with the Phillies in 2004.  That problem could arise again; given that Millwood is on the wrong side of 30, he may be just as much of a health risk as Burnett.

Millwood’s HR rate is trending in the wrong direction, and he allows enough baserunners to push that 2.86 ERA up near 4.  I guess we’ll have to look back on this in 2009 or 2010, but I think Burnett is a better bet, especially since the money may be comparable.    

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