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Mark Prior

Prior’s Injury: Timeline of Events

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As this Mark Prior shoulder injury thing continues to pick up steam, I thought it might make sense for me to lay out an estimated timeline for those not located in Chicago.

February 20th, 11am:  Baseball Prospectus injury analyst Will Carroll mentions a tip he’s received claiming that Mark Prior is nursing shoulder problems within a spring training injury notebook.

February 20th, 11:05am:  Major League GMs and other BP subscribers read Carroll’s report and nod knowingly.  Cubdom reacts.  Blogs were all over this one for the next few hours.

February 20th, afternoon:  Carroll appears on Chicago sports talk station 670 The Score to talk about the rumor.  Various members of Chicago print media listen to the radio show and first hear about the possible Prior injury.  It is immediately branded an "Internet rumor" and is decided that the nerdy website from which it originated uses too many numbers.

February 20th, evening:  Majority of said sportswriters deem the rumor unworthy of tomorrow’s column, and instead go back to writing cutting edge essays on why they hate Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa.

February 21st, morning:  Reporters in Mesa, Arizona, unwilling to give credence to the rumor but afraid to miss out on the scoop, quiz Prior and Dusty Baker on it.  Prior does not acknowledge the rumor as true, but strangely neglects to simply say, "My shoulder is perfectly healthy."

February 21st, evening:  Members of Chicago print media Google the name "Will Carroll" for tomorrow’s column.  They learn that he is neither a doctor nor in Arizona, thereby debunking the rumor.  They do not attempt to contact Carroll.

February 22nd, morning: Members of Chicago print media take baseless shots at Carroll yet take the Cubs to task for not being forthright about injuries within the same column.  The aura of unprofessionalism surrounding all Internet media is maintained and print journalists keep their jobs.

Interesting side note: An advertisement for Will Carroll’s radio show appears in the Baseball Cube listing for Prior (it has for a while, if I recall correctly).                    

White Sox Never Pursued Prior

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I spoke to my White Sox source today, and he was able to offer up a little bit of information.

Remember this tantalizing tidbit from Gordon Edes’s January 15th article for the Boston Globe?

"Would you believe that the White Sox were hovering on the fringes of the Tejada trade talks, not because of any interest in Tejada but in the hopes that if the Orioles peddled him to the Chicago Cubs for ace Mark Prior, they would have been willing to flip Prior to the crosstown White Sox in a package?"

Not so, according to my source.  The White Sox never had designs to acquire Prior, but they truly did make various offers for Miguel Tejada. 

He also told me that there hasn’t been any hot stove buzz lately involving a Jose Contreras trade, contrary to published reports.

Phils’ Attempted Starter Acquisitions

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Remember about a week ago, when Pat Gillick mentioned that the Phillies’s deal for a #1 or #2 starter had fallen through?  I’m received a fair amount of emails on this topic, so I wanted to address it.  I talked my Phils source, and he gave me the lowdown.  He mentioned that most if not all of these names had previously appeared in the media linked to the Phillies, but I’ll present the information anyway.

Mark Prior was never the Phillies’ number one choice.  They’ve always been lukewarm on him due to his health record.  Had the Cubs parted with Carlos Zambrano, the Phillies would’ve happily dealt Bobby Abreu.

The Phillies like Erik Bedard quite a bit.  The problem is that the Orioles are actually looking to acquire a starting pitcher, not give one up.  So although the Orioles have soured on Bedard somewhat, trading him probably won’t happen unless a couple of excellent young pitchers are coming back in the deal.  I don’t even know if such a deal would make sense for any team.

Philadelphia was close to acquiring Derek Lowe during the winter meetings, but of course that fell through.  No word on what the club offered.

The last name on the radar is Matt Clement.  The Phils really aren’t thrilled with Clement whatsoever, but they would at least consider acquiring him in the right deal.

Phil Rogers On Burnitz

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Some interesting items for Cubs fans in Phil Rogers’s column today.

Rogers calls the Cubs’ decision not to exercise Jeromy Burnitz’s $7MM option a gaffe.  He points out that Jacque Jones is basically Burnitz’s equal in right field.  That’s true, even when you take fielding into account.  In my opinion, letting Burnitz go was a smart move.  However, signing Jones for three years is a poor way to solve fill the vacancy.  At least, that’s been my stance on this site. 

But after perusing the right fielder rankings from 2005, I had to ask myself:  what alternative would I have proposed as Cubs GM?  Nobody ranked above Jones/Burnitz was ever really available, at least not for a reasonable price.  Looked at in that way, Rogers is right.  Better to have one year of Burnitz and see if Felix Pie is ready in 2007.  However, given the almighty power as Cubs GM, I would’ve traded for Craig Wilson and stuck him in right. 

Rogers also weighs in on the Tejada trade possibility:

"If Hendry really will give up Mark Prior or Carlos Zambrano—and he would be nuts to deal Prior—there’s a deal to be made. The Orioles should soon realize that."

There’s been pages of debate on this site, but I think Hendry would be truly nuts to trade Zambrano.  Z is just 24 and has quietly become one of the best starting pitchers in baseball.  If he ever gets a handle on his walks, he’d be downright dominant.

Finally, Rogers mentions Alfonso Soriano as a trade possibility.  I shudder at the thought.  Remember when Hendry mandated the callups of Matt Murton and Adam Greenberg?  It seemed like he was forcing some OBP guys onto Dusty Baker and that was that.  I thought the organization had turned a corner and embraced on-base percentage.

Cubs Tejada Trade On The Table

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An emailer reports that the Cubs are awaiting word from the Orioles on this offer:

Cubs get:

Miguel Tejada, Erik Bedard

Orioles get:

Mark Prior, Rich Hill, Corey Patterson

This proposal is on the table.  The report comes from Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000. 

The pros and cons of this deal have been debated endlessly on this site.  To restate my opinion: this move works as a "win now" move.  The Cubs would add something like seven wins, so they’d need some additional upgrades or players outplaying projections to be favored as the division winner.  A couple of options I like:

Platoon Jacque Jones with Matt Murton and acquire a slugging left fielder.  Cliff Floyd would only become available if the Mets acquire Manny Ramirez.  While the Cubs aren’t thrilled with Luis Gonzalez, he’s still a top ten LF and could push them over the top.

Trade for Jeff Kent.  He’s one of the five best second basemen, and I’m firmly in the camp that Ronny Cedeno will not be a Major League success.  Kent’s obviously a force in the Dodgers’ lineup, but the Cubs could come on strong and top the Mets’ weak offer.  The Dodgers may want to get some young players in return before Kent’s contract is up.  Just a thought.

Peter Angelos, Mark Prior, and Medical History

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It’s well known that Baltimore Orioles CEO Peter Angelos is very mindful of players’ health records, moreso than any other GM.  It could have something to do with Angelos’s past as a personal injury lawyer.  Or it could be two massive free agent blunders made in the past by the Orioles: Scott Erickson and Albert Belle.  The Orioles wasted many millions as the two players deteriorated. 

The Angelos mindset is center stage at the moment, as the health of Cubs starter Mark Prior is far from spotless.  As I mentioned earlier, here’s what Buster Olney had to say on the issue:

"Executives with other teams are assuming, by the way, that Baltimore owner Peter Angelos would likely kill any proposal once club doctors review Prior’s recent medical history."

I dug around a bit and got a little more from a source close to the Orioles.  He told me that he knows of at least three free agents that the Orioles backed away from this winter after reviewing their medical records.  He wouldn’t name names, but I have to think Kevin Millwood was one.

However, the source told me Prior’s medical records would only pose a slight dilemma for the Orioles. He thinks the true obstacle is simply the Cubs meeting the Orioles’ asking price.  If that happens, the deal will get done quickly.

Cubs Willing To Trade Prior?

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Ken Rosenthal’s got Chicago buzzing:

"The Cubs, aggressively pursuing a blockbuster trade for Orioles shortstop Miguel Tejada, are willing to part with a top starting pitcher, most likely right-hander Mark Prior, sources tell FOXSports.com."

According to Rosenthal, the talks stalled when the Cubs insisted on receiving Erik Bedard and Tejada without surrendering Felix Pie or a top pitching prospect.

A longshot three-way deal involving Manny Ramirez, Tejada, and Prior was also mentioned.

As stated here back in November, Bedard is very much available.  Bedard is more than a year older than Prior, and is even more fragile.  I’ve projected Bedard at a 3.74 ERA in 170 innings in 2006.  I originally had Prior at a 3.37 ERA in 202 innings, although the ERA could be more like 3.53 after I make some more adjustments.

Bedard is a lot further away from free agency than Prior, having only two Major League seasons under his belt.  He and Tejada would be a fair return for Prior, even if the Cubs had to include Rich Hill in the deal as the "top pitching prospect."  Using 2005 stats and assuming no contribution from any prospects sent by the Cubs, this is a trade that would net the Cubs seven wins in 2006.  Is the present team a .500 club?  If so, this trade could propel the Cubs to the playoffs.

Still, I can’t help having that ominous feeling that the Cubs could be letting a major talent slip away.  At just 25, Prior’s best seasons are probably yet to come (2003 excepted.) Miguel Tejada will turn 30 in May, and you can’t help but worry about his .276/.322/.416 line in 308 post All-Star break at-bats.  Sure, people will say he was uninspired and maybe mention the Palmeiro distraction, but the seed of doubt remains.

Prior For Abreu: Forget It

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One of the hot rumors at the moment is that the Cubs "didn’t say no" when the Phillies asked for Mark Prior in return for Bobby Abreu.  This Philadelphia Daily News article only fueled the fire.

Hopefully putting the rumor to bed, Bruce Levine quoted Jim Hendry recently on ESPN Radio 1000 as saying Prior for Abreu is not an option.  According to Levine, Carlos Zambrano is off the table as well.

While the Cubs need a shakeup and Abreu is a star, dealing one of their young, cheap ace pitchers isn’t the solution.  Prior had home run and walk problems in 2005.  Add in some injury concerns, and his value may be at an all-time low.  Given his career 10.5 K/9 mark over 613 innings, Prior still has the chance to take back his spot as one of the best pitchers in the league.

Zambrano actually is one of the best pitchers in the NL.  The 24 year old has a 3.26 career ERA and has pitched 200 innings in each of his three full seasons.  Here’s how his overall ranking in the NL for each of the last three seasons, according to Baseball Prospectus’s VORP statistic.

2003 – 11th
2004 – 4th
2005 – 10th

While Abreu should certainly bring a young pitcher in return, Hendry would be overpaying to include Prior or Zambrano.  Given Abreu’s salary and age, Erik Bedard seems like a more appropriate bounty.

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