Central Notes: Santana, DeJong, Cubs
Although outgoing Royal Eric Hosmer is a clear bet to take home the largest contract among first basemen this winter, Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs suspects that career Indians first baseman Carlos Santana will outperform Hosmer for at least the next three years. While Hosmer is younger than Santana and had a better 2017 season by fWAR, Sawchik notes that Santana’s primary skill (his batting eye) is a better bet to age well than any other skill that either player brings to the table. Hosmer has also posted negative fWAR totals in two of his major league seasons; something Santana has never done. Worth mentioning: Santana was worth a total of 21.2 fWAR from 2011-2017, while Hosmer was worth a mere 9.9.
Elsewhere across baseball’s central divisions…
- The offseason for Cardinals‘ shortstop Paul DeJong will be an interesting one. As CBS2’s Steve Overmyer reported from New York on Thursday, DeJong has joined renowned scientist Dr. Lawrence Rocks in a lab study about the effects of heat and weather on baseball flight distance. Early returns in the study seem to indicate that while baseballs are likely to travel shorter distances as temperatures get colder, they are also likely to travel shorter distances if temperatures increase past a certain point. “As you decrease temperature, you get less bounce, like an automobile tire on a very cold day – it’s a little more brittle,” Rocks said. “As you increase temperature, the elastomeres get a little mooshy; you get less bounce.”
- While Cubs GM Jed Hoyer has declined to comment on his team’s pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago suggests a plan of attack for the team in trying to acquire the Japanese ace. While bringing an end to “The Curse” is no longer a selling point (as it may have been to Jon Lester and some others, according to Mooney), Chicago still has plenty to offer as a city. Hoyer will be working hard to put together a more attractive pitch to Ohtani and his agents than the other 29 MLB teams that will be vying for the two-way star’s services.
NL Notes: Martinez, Cardinals, Nationals
Diamondbacks right fielder J.D. Martinez has been one of majors’ top offensive players over the past few years, but his 2014 breakout wouldn’t have come if not for Los Angeles-based hitting coaches Craig Wallenbrock and Robert Van Scoyoc, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic details. When Martinez first visited the duo four years ago, his swing “was pretty terrible, to be honest,” according to Van Scoyoc. Added Wallenbrock, “We probably made more drastic changes with him than we did with anybody.” Martinez began working diligently with the pair after the 2013 season (before the Astros released him in March 2014), and the fly ball-first approach they preach has paid enormous dividends. As an Astro from 2011-13, Martinez hit .251/.300/.387 with 24 home runs and a 33.3 percent fly ball rate in 975 trips to the plate. Since then, Martinez has combined for 2,143 plate appearances with the Tigers and D-backs and slashed .300/.362/.574 with 128 HRs and a 40.1 percent fly ball rate. The 30-year-old currently stands as one of the game’s premier free agents-to-be, and realizes he wouldn’t be where he is without Wallenbrock and Van Scoyoc. “I am who I am because of them,” Martinez said.
More from the National League:
- The Cardinals are in search of power, something third baseman Jedd Gyorko provided both last year and this season, but it’s possible he’ll be on another roster in 2018, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. While Gyorko has hit a team-high 50 home runs since 2016 (20 this year) and, in manager Mike Matheny’s words, “played a phenomenal third base,” the Cardinals could shop him if they make changes at his position or elsewhere in in the infield. Gyorko, who’s controllable through 2020 at reasonable costs, wants to stay where he is. “I would love to be here, but who knows?” he said. “If I could spend the rest of my career here that would be great. I can’t see any reason why you wouldn’t want to play here.”
- Elsewhere in the Cardinals’ infield, the presence of power-hitting shortstop Paul DeJong gives them a leg up on most teams, Benjamin Hochman of the Post-Dispatch argues. Of the top eight shortstops in home runs this year, five ended up in the postseason, Hochman points out. The 24-year-old DeJong was one of the three who didn’t, but the rookie still posted outstanding production with 25 long balls – good for second at his position – to go with a .285/.325/.532 line and a .247 ISO over 443 PAs. But DeJong’s output did come with some good fortune – with 124 strikeouts against 21 unintentional walks, he logged one of the worst ratios in the game. Further, according to Statcast (via Baseball Savant), DeJong’s expected weighted on-base average (.323) lagged far behind his actual wOBA (.365). Sill, Hochman expects DeJong to be the answer for the Cards at short, a position Aledmys Diaz couldn’t lock down this season after unexpectedly bursting on the scene as a rookie in 2016.
- In a decision that raised eyebrows at the time, outfielder Jayson Werth left the contending Phillies for the upstart Nationals’ seven-year, $126MM offer in December 2010. The Nationals have turned into a winning organization since then, in part because of Werth, Nats GM Mike Rizzo told Mark Bowman of MLB.com. “I brought him here to shape us as a championship-caliber franchise,” Rizzo said. “Slowly, we’ve kind of morphed into a very professional organization. We have a protocol and a process. He has been an instrumental factor in getting us where we’re at.” Werth’s production has been a mixed bag in D.C., but the club “got everything we intended to get out of” signing him, Rizzo contends. Werth, meanwhile, is “proud” of the “first-class organization” the Nats have become during his seven-year run, and he’s content to “leave this organization in a better state than when I arrived.”
NL Central Notes: Kang, Pirates, Lester, Arrieta, Diaz
Pirates infielder Jung Ho Kang discussed his attempt to return to the majors with Jee-ho Yoo of Yonhap (here and here). Kang derailed his career when he drove under the influence of alcohol in his native Korea — the third time he has been arrested for a DUI — with a subsequent conviction leaving him unable to obtain a visa to work in the United States. Now, as he prepares to play in the Dominican Winter League, Kang says he hopes “to become a better person and a better player.” Whether or not he’ll be able to return to action in the majors — in 2018 or beyond — will ultimately depend upon the U.S. government.
- In a piece that’s not altogether unrelated to Kang’s situation, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette analyzes the thin margin of error the Pirates front office has to work with in light of the team’s still-limited payroll. GM Neal Huntington notes the need to find “significant value outside of the free-agent market” as well as the imperative to “get more than just a dollar-for-dollar value” in free agency. The piece highlights the challenges facing the just-extended executive as he seeks to position the Bucs for contention once again.
- Needless to say, the Cubs have seen some ups and downs from their rotation this year. Now, it’s key lefty Jon Lester who is struggling to find answers, as Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com writes. The battle-tested veteran has not been very effective since returning from the DL at the start of September; things came to a head last night, as he allowed seven earned runs on eight hits and three hits without recording a strikeout. Lester declined to blame any physical limitations and says he’s “not worried about” the middling results, noting that he simply needs to make adjustments as he has over the course of his successful career.
- The Cubs will hope that Jake Arrieta is sharper when he makes his own return from the DL. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that the veteran righty, who went on the shelf right as Lester came back, feels his arm strength may actually have improved after getting some rest due to a hamstring injury. Arrieta is scheduled for two more regular-season outings, though Chicago will wait to make any final calls on the last few games of the year.
- Shortstop Aledmys Diaz is back with the Cardinals after an extended run at Triple-A, but as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, his role with the organization — now and in the future — is quite uncertain. Diaz has moved around the infield a bit at Triple-A, perhaps creating some new versatility, though he continued to struggle at the plate. With Paul DeJong now seemingly ensconced at short, Diaz will need to carve out a new role or wait for an opportunity to open with the Cards or, perhaps, some other organization.
Cardinals Place Kolten Wong On DL, Promote Paul DeJong
The Cardinals have placed second baseman Kolten Wong on the 10-day disabled list with a left elbow strain. His roster spot will go to infield prospect Paul DeJong, whose contract has been purchased from Triple-A.
[RELATED: Updated Cardinals Depth Chart]
After a down season last year in which he lost playing time at the keystone to Jedd Gyorko, Wong created a mini-controversy in March when he expressed unhappiness about being part of a timeshare at second base. The 26-year-old quickly walked back those comments, though, and he and Gyorko have managed to coexist this season. The power-hitting Gyorko has mainly played third base, leaving second to Wong, who has improved offensively this season. Wong has slashed .278/.378/.414 with 18 walks and 20 strikeouts in 157 plate appearances, but the normally adept defender hasn’t been as effective in the field as he has been at the plate (minus-two Defensive Runs Saved, minus-12.7 UZR/150).
With Wong on the shelf, Gyorko and Greg Garcia present the Cardinals’ most logical options to fill in at second. Those two, along with Jhonny Peralta and DeJong, also offer options at the hot corner. DeJong, 23, is only two years removed from going to the Cardinals in the fourth round of the draft. He now ranks as the Redbirds’ 11th-best prospect, according to MLB Pipeline, which classifies the potential shortstop’s power as “legitimate.” DeJong has shown off that power at Triple-A this year, having swatted 11 home runs and posted a .247 ISO in 182 trips to the plate. Overall, the righty-swinger has batted a strong .294/.331/.541, though his walk and strikeout rates (4.4 percent and 24.7 percent, respectively) could certainly stand to improve.