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Paul DeJong

A Shortstop Showdown

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While they’re not in the same division, a pair of centrally based major league teams have produced a couple of the majors’ top-performing shortstops. The White Sox of the American League Central have seen Tim Anderson turn into a rather valuable player. The same goes for the Cardinals of the National League Central and Paul DeJong. They’re pretty similar in value, age and contract situations, but which of the two would you rather have?

Anderson, 26, was a first-round pick in 2013 who debuted in ’16 and took some time to find himself as a major league hitter. In 1,643 plate appearances from his first year through 2018, he hit a below-average .258/.286/.411 (86 wRC+) with 46 home runs and 51 stolen bases. A high strikeout rate (26 percent) and a low walk percentage (3.4) were part of the problem. Those K/BB trends largely stayed in place last year (2.9 percent and 21 percent, respectively), but Anderson nonetheless found another gear a hitter. He slashed .335/.357/.508 (130 wRC+) with 18 homers and 17 steals en route to a career-best 3.5 fWAR (he combined for 4.1 in the prior three seasons) and an AL batting title. Of course, he was also the beneficiary of a .399 batting average on balls in play – up .110 points from the previous year – and Statcast wasn’t as bullish as his bottom-line production (.363 weighted on-base average versus .328 expected wOBA).

Shifting to the defensive side, Anderson hasn’t been a consistently good player, at least not according to the metrics. By Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, he has been a plus player twice and a minus fielder twice. The most recent campaign fell into the latter category, as he posted minus-12 DRS with a minus-9.1 UZR. DeJong, meanwhile, has greatly outdone Anderson as a defender since debuting with the Cardinals in 2017. Last season, for instance, DeJong put up 26 DRS and 11.4 UZR, making him one of the sport’s top fielders.

Also 26, DeJong has graded as a solid performer on a regular basis dating back to his first game in the majors. He has been at least a 3.0-fWAR player every season, including a career-high 4.1 mark in 2019. DeJong, unlike Anderson, has struggled to hit for average of late, but he was a 30-HR man last year – a season in which he finished with a .233/.318/.444 mark (100 wRC+) across 664 plate appearances. Going by wRC+, it was the third consecutive time that DeJong registered league-average or better offensive numbers. That and his excellent defense have combined to make DeJong quite valuable for St. Louis.

Beyond the production on the field, you have to consider the two players’ contracts when comparing them. They’re pretty alike in that regard, too. Anderson inked a six-year, $25MM extension heading into the 2017 season. That deal also includes a $12.5MM club option for 2023 and a potential $14MM salary the next season. Whether or not the White Sox pick up either option, they’re surely not regretting the gamble now. Likewise, the Cardinals must be happy that they locked DeJong into a six-year, $26MM pact prior to 2018. That deal includes a $12.5MM option for 2024 and $15MM in ’25.

There’s a lot to like about both of these shortstops, but if you have to pick one, whom would you want on your team? (Poll link for app users)

Cardinals Notes: Coaches, Clapp, Ankiel, Wainwright, Offseason

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The Cardinals will face some changes in the coaching ranks, as third base coach Jose Oquendo has informed the team he will not return in 2019, president of baseball ops John Mozeliak announced to reporters Tuesday (links via Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Mark Saxon of The Athletic). Oquendo, who was offered the opportunity to return, will work with the club in Spring Training but will spend the bulk of the season away from the game with his family.

In Oquendo’s absence, bench coach Ron Warner is moving to third base coach. First base coach Oliver Marmol is taking the reins at bench coach, while hitting coach George Greer will be a minor league hitting coordinator moving forward. That leaves the Cards with a vacancy both at hitting coach and first base coach, and Goold notes that Triple-A manager Stubby Clapp is expected to be offered one of those two positions if he is not hired away from the team. Clapp, who has been quite successful in his current role with the Cardinals’ Memphis affiliate, is also a rumored candidate for the Blue Jays’ managerial post (though he has denied hearing from the Jays to this point).

More out of St. Louis…

  • Goold notes that Mozeliak plans to speak with Rick Ankiel about the former left-hander/outfielder’s desire to make a comeback in 2019. Ankiel announced back in August that he was planning on pursuing a return to the Majors as a relief pitcher. He told Yahoo’s Tim Brown that month that he has “nothing to lose” and feels that he’s “in a better place” than he was when his career on the mound was derailed by the yips nearly two decades ago. While Ankiel would be nothing more than a roll of the dice, Mozeliak did express a desire to improve the left-handed pitching in the Cardinals’ relief corps. Zach Britton and Andrew Miller headline this year’s crop of free-agent lefty relievers, though there are ample names beyond that pair (to say nothing of countless options on the trade market).
  • Details of Adam Wainwright’s contract to return to the Cardinals won’t become clear for a few weeks, but Mozeliak indicated (via Saxon) the venerable right-hander was “willing to bet on himself,” adding that the risks associated with the contract are low. Obviously, that indicates that the contract will come with a fairly small base salary. It’s already been reported that Wainwright’s contract will have both rotation- and bullpen-based incentives, so the team may not yet even have a determination on what his role will be in 2019. Mozeliak did note that the rotation, which is loaded with depth options, is “probably not going to be our focus of energy.”
  • Rather, Saxon notes, supplementing the offense seems to be a greater focus. The preference, Mozeliak implied, would be a left-handed bat, though he added that he “[doesn’t] think it has to be.” The longstanding head of baseball ops for the Cards firmly indicated that the team hasn’t given up on Dexter Fowler being able to bounce back, though he also wouldn’t make any declarative statements about Fowler’s role in 2019. Mozeliak called the positions filled by Yadier Molina (catcher), Paul DeJong (shortstop), Marcell Ozuna (left field) and Harrison Bader (center field) all “pretty certain,” and indicated that Matt Carpenter would be in the lineup as well, most likely at first base. Beyond that, Mozeliak emphasized that he’s been a “big advocate” for Kolten Wong and hopes the defensive stalwart can continue to improve.
  • As Goold notes, third base and right field seemed the two most plausible areas for upgrade based on Mozeliak’s comments. That’ll lead to no shortage of speculation tying the Cards to top free agents Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, though when asked about free agents, Mozeliak explained that he has “to be pragmatic and understand what that looks like” from a long-term vantage point.

NL Central Notes: Reds, Cardinals, Cubs

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The 2019 Reds payroll will be the team’s highest ever, owner Bob Castellini tells Paul Daugherty of the Cincinnati Enquirer.  We already knew that the Reds planned on spending more next season, though Castellini’s comments suggest a fairly notable increase over this season’s $101.34MM Opening Day payroll.  The team’s previous payroll high was $115.3MM on Opening Day 2015, and that total jumped to over $118MM by the end of that season.  However, Castellini also referenced increased organizational spending, which suggest he may not be referring exclusively to player payroll.  Regardless, Cincinnati will be shopping for multiple arms this winter, as Castellini notes that “We know we have to bolster the whole pitching situation.  Are we talking about one starter or two?  Two bullpen guys, three bullpen guys?”

More from Cincinnati and the NL Central….

  • MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took note of the fairly substantial drop in attendance seen at the Great American Ball Park this year, while Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported that 2018 marked the Reds’ slowest year at the turnstiles since 1984.  Elsewhere around town, however, Cincinnati’s minor league soccer team FC Cincinnati is busy setting attendance records as they prepare to make the jump to the MLS in 2019, according to Sharon Coolidge and Patrick Brennan of the Cincinnati Enquirer.  Losing the attendance battle to a minor league soccer team might be discouraging, but it’s also a clear indication for the Reds that a hunger exists in the city to support a winner.
  • The Cardinals are hoping to get their middle infield combo of Kolten Wong and Paul DeJong healthy this offseason with a little R&R.  Wong will avoid surgery on a balky left knee that led to some hamstring soreness later in the year, as per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  DeJong successful underwent surgery last week to remove a plate that from his left hand that was inserted to aid the healing process after he broke it in May. He’ll be in a cast for a few weeks, but should be healthy enough for offseason workouts before too long. DeJong struggled to regain his power stroke after returning in July, though that isn’t an uncommon short-term issue for players recovering from a broken hand.  St. Louis hopes to get this tandem healthy, as they’re both signed to fairly modest long-term deals. Wong is signed for two more seasons with a $12.5MM option for 2021, while DeJong signed an extension in March.
  • In Cubs news, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat took an early look at the questions Theo Epstein and company need to address this offseason.  The Cubs fell from first in runs scored to eighth in the second half, but exactly where in the lineup they’ll look to upgrade is as of yet unclear.  Perhaps the easiest way to improve the offense is to get Kris Bryant’s shoulder back in good form, as the former NL MVP was in and out of the lineup for much of the second half with shoulder soreness.  For now, the plan is to avoid surgery and hope that a longer offseason than usual helps the healing process.

Injury Updates: Syndergaard, Cueto, DeJong, Font, Buxton

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The Mets fell to 32-48 on Saturday and now own the National League’s worst record, but here’s a rare piece of good news for the woebegone club: Noah Syndergaard may be nearing a return. The team’s co-ace, who has been on the disabled list with a strained finger ligament since May 29, is scheduled to throw a simulated game in Port St. Lucie, Fla., during the upcoming week, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Syndergaard will be opposed by fellow injured starter Jason Vargas, who went on the DL last weekend because of a strained calf. If the outing goes well for both pitchers, each would figure to make at least one rehab start before returning, DiComo adds. In Syndergaard’s case, he could be auditioning for other teams upon his comeback, as the Mets are willing to listen to any offers that may come in for the prized 25-year-old prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.

Here’s more injury news from around the game:

  • Like Syndergaard, Giants front-line starter Johnny Cueto is on the cusp of a long-awaited return. Cueto, who last took the mound April 28, made a successful Double-A rehab start Friday as he works back from a right elbow sprain. Cueto will throw a bullpen session Monday, and the Giants will then decide whether to activate the 32-year-old or have him make another rehab start, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
  • Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong is on track to return to the team early in the upcoming week, Peter Baugh of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch relays. The power-hitting DeJong has been out since May 18 because of a fractured left hand, which has left shortstop to Greg Garcia and Yairo Munoz in St. Louis. Fortunately for the Cardinals, Garcia and Munoz have offered decent production in DeJong’s place. However, their output has fallen well short of the .260/.351/.473 line DeJong has posted in 171 plate appearances.
  • The Rays placed right-hander Wilmer Font on the 10-day disabled list and recalled fellow righty Hunter Wood from Triple-A on Saturday, according to Bill Chastain of MLB.com. The right lat injury Font suffered Friday is likely to keep him out for around eight weeks, manager Kevin Cash revealed. Font, whom the Rays acquired from the Athletics in late May, looked to be emerging as a find for Tampa Bay prior to the injury. The 28-year-old has made nine appearances (five starts) since the trade and logged a 1.67 ERA over 27 innings, though he has only managed 20 strikeouts against 11 walks. Now that Font’s on the shelf, the bullpen-heavy Rays are down to just two traditional starters – Blake Snell and Nathan Eovaldi.
  • Twins center fielder Byron Buxton has been out for a month because of a fractured left big toe, and there’s still no timetable for his return, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com writes. While Buxton’s making progress in his recovery, it’s possible he’ll stay in the minors beyond July 8 (when his rehab assignment ends), Bollinger explains. Even if Buxton’s healthy, the Twins don’t want to recall him until they’re confident he’ll be able to help them at the plate. With a miserable .156/.183/.200 line in 94 PAs, the 24-year-old Buxton has been a drain on Minnesota’s offense this season.

Central Notes: Moustakas, Indians, Cardinals

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Although Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas is an obvious trade candidate, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports hears (video link) that he’s unlikely to bring back much in a deal at his current pace. As Rosenthal points out, Moustakas’ offensive output has faded as the season has progressed, and the lefty-swinger has struggled all year against same-handed pitchers, who have limited him to a .224/.253/.353 line. He’s also due around $3MM after the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. All of those factors figure to harm Moustakas’ value, Rosenthal posits. After hitting .272/.314/.521 with 38 home runs in 598 plate appearances last year, Moustakas failed to generate much interest in free agency, leading him to re-sign with the Royals for a $6.5MM guarantee in early March. Three months later, he’s slashing an unremarkable .259/.314/.474 with 13 HRs through 296 trips to the plate.

More from the league’s Central divisions…

  • The Indians are awaiting word on right-hander Carlos Carrasco, who departed his start Saturday after a 99.6 mph line drive off the bat of the Twins’ Joe Mauer struck him in the pitching elbow. Carrasco left after 1 1/3 innings with what the team called a forearm contusion, though manager Terry Francona said afterward (via Joe Noga of cleveland.com) that he’s undergoing tests on his elbow to rule out further damage. “When you look inside a pitcher’s elbow, there’s a lot going on,” Francona said. “Right now, they said it was a contusion. The hope is that’s all it is. We’ll know more by late tonight.” Saturday continued a somewhat down year for Carrasco, who allowed four earned runs to lift his ERA to 4.24 (compared to 3.29 last season), though his secondary numbers paint a far more hopeful picture.
  • Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong is on track to come off the disabled list in early July, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com reports. DeJong, out since suffering a fractured left hand May 17, has been cleared to resume hitting and is aiming to take batting practice during the upcoming week. Meanwhile, injured reliever Dominic Leone has “turned the corner from uncertainty to progressing in the right direction,” according to general manager Michael Girsch (via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Leone now looks likely to return this year, which wasn’t the case before, Goold notes. A nerve issue in Leone’s right biceps has kept him on the shelf since May 5.
  • The Indians’ Triple-A affiliate in Columbus announced that it has placed center fielder Bradley Zimmer on the DL, retroactive to June 14, with right shoulder discomfort. The injury continues a Murphy’s Law 2018 for Zimmer, who was on the major league DL earlier this season with a rib contusion and then was demoted to Triple-A on June 5 after limping to a .226/.281/.330 line in 114 PAs. He also hasn’t posed a threat in the minors this year, albeit over a mere 28 PAs, with a .148/.179/.259 line and 11 strikeouts against one walk.

Injury Notes: Prado, Murphy/Goodwin, DeJong, Casilla, Trumbo, More

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It seems that Marlins infielder Martin Prado has suffered a rather significant left hamstring injury, as Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports. The 34-year-old has endured a run of significant problems with his hamstring muscles in the past year or so. Details aren’t yet known, but it certainly sounds as if Prado will be sidelined for a lengthy stretch. He’s owed $13.5MM this year and $15MM for the 2019 campaign. The long-productive infielder has struggled to a .169/.221/.180 batting line in 95 plate appearances on the season.

Here’s more on the injury front:

  • The Nationals finally got some promising injury news, as they’ll send both Daniel Murphy and Brian Goodwin on rehab assignments beginning tomorrow. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweeted the news with regard to the former; Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post tweeted manager Davey Martinez’s announcement on both players. Murphy has yet to appear in the 2018 campaign after offseason microfracture surgery, while Goodwin has been slow to return from a wrist injury.
  • It’s still unclear just how long the Cardinals will go without shortstop Paul DeJong, but he says he has been given a four-to-eight week estimate by the medical professionals, as Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. More than anything, it seems that broad range indicates that there’s not a lot of clarity at this point as to how long it’ll take to heal. All involved will obviously hope that it hues toward the earlier estimate, as the replacement options all have their warts as semi-regular shortstops.
  • It seems the Athletics will go without reliever Santiago Casilla for a stretch. He has been diagnosed with a shoulder strain, as MLB.com’s Jane Lee reports (Twitter links). Details of his anticipated absence are not yet available, but it’s said to be likely that Casilla will end up on the DL. At the same time, he says he does not believe it’s a serious malady. The veteran entered play today with an ugly 14:13 K/BB ratio, but had allowed eight runs on only 11 hits in his 21 innings of action.
  • Though he seemingly avoided a more concerning fate, Orioles slugger Mark Trumbo will likely head to the DL to rest his ailing right knee, as Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com was among those to report (Twitter links). Trumbo was diagnosed with a fairly significant case of arthritis, which won’t necessarily put him on the shelf for long but also probably isn’t the best news for a defensively limited player who’s owed $12.5MM this year and $13.5MM next. He has been productive thus far in 2018, though, with a .309/.317/.469 slash through 82 plate appearances. On the other hand, it’s somewhat worrisome that he has managed only a pair of home runs and a single walk in that span.
  • In other AL East news … so long as there are no surprises in the interim, Nate Eovaldi will finally start for the Rays on Tuesday, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. The Yankees announced that reliever Tommy Kahnle is back from the DL, which represents a promising development given the uncertainty that surrounded him when he went on the shelf. And while the Blue Jays still aren’t planning on a near-term return from Troy Tulowitzki, skipper John Gibbons says the veteran shortstop is at least ready to begin running, as Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca tweets.
  • While the Padres had hoped to welcome back catcher Austin Hedges in relatively short order, he’s now halting his rehab after his problematic right elbow flared up, as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell writes. It still seems there’s little reason to fear that Hedges is dealing with a real structural problem, though surely it’s frustrating for the organization that he hasn’t yet fully turned the corner.
  • Meanwhile, the Angels provided an update on hurler Matt Shoemaker, though it mostly suggests ongoing uncertainty with regard to the root of his arm issues. As the club announced, and MLB.com’s Maria Guardado tweets, the latest examination “ruled out peripheral nerve involvement” but “showed mild edema in the forearm.” Shoemaker is also said to have undergone a bone scan. The results of that weren’t specifically cited, but it seems to suggest that the organization is looking at quite a lot of possibilities to figure out what’s really causing problems for the starter.

Cardinals Place Paul DeJong On 10-Day DL With Fractured Hand

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May 19th, 12:06pm: DeJong’s surgery was successful, MLB.com’s Joe Trezza reports, though a timetable for his return has yet to be shared.

May 18th, 4:24pm: Unfortunately, it does not seem that DeJong has suffered a run-of-the-mill fracture. The injury is to his pinky, per MLB.com’s Joe Trezza (via Twitter). DeJong will undergo surgery this evening to insert a plate, per president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (on Twitter), with the expectations being that there’ll be a “significant” layoff.

3:05pm: The Cardinals have announced that shortstop Paul DeJong is heading to the 10-day DL after he was diagnosed with a fractured left hand suffered on a hit-by-pitch. Also headed to the DL is righty Matt Bowman, who’s dealing with blisters.

To fill the two openings on the roster, the Cards have called up infielder Yairo Munoz and outfielder Tyler O’Neill. Both players are already on the 40-man roster.

It’s not yet known whether DeJong is a candidate for surgery, let alone what kind of rehabilitation timeline will be required. But his absence will tell, even if it’s for a relatively short period of time.

The major difficulty for the Cardinals is that, while they feature quite a few infield options, none really profile as regular options at short. Greg Garcia has the most experience at the position in the majors; Jedd Gyorko has lined up at short, but not very often and not for some time. It seems Munoz might also be viewed as an option, as he has spent much of his minor-league career at shortstop.

Clearly, those players aren’t likely to account for the missing productivity of DeJong, who’s not only a quality fielder but carries a .260/.351/.473 slash through 171 plate appearances on the year. With much of the Cards offense still working to round into form, the loss of DeJong will leave the team without one of its best bats to this point of the season.

NL Central Notes: Butler, Price, DeJong

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Let’s take a look in at the latest notes from around the National League’s Central division:

  • The Cubs have placed long reliever Eddie Butler on the 10-day DL with a groin strain. He turned in four strong appearances to open the year but has been knocked around in his last two and now owns a 4.30 ERA over 14 2/3 innings, with ten strikeouts against five walks. There’s no reason at this point to believe that Butler will be sidelined long. Fellow righty Luke Farrell received the call to take the open active roster spot. He, too, ought to be able to give the team innings in some volume when needed, as he’s stretched out to start.
  • C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic breaks down the Reds’ firing of skipper Bryan Price in a subscription piece. As Rosecrans observes, it is in some regard actually more surprising that Price lasted this long, despite never overseeing a winning product, than that he was fired so early in the current season. Of course, the struggles during his tenure have hardly all been his fault, and it may be that the long-rebuilding team finally felt this was the time to make a statement. There were some internal hopes of improvement entering the year, making it all the harder to stomach an ugly start to the season. GM Dick Williams explained that “now was the right time to do something about” the fact that the team’s offseason work had gone so far south. At the same time, he acknowledged that “this is an organizational disappointment,” not something that falls only at the feet of Price and his staff. It’s certainly hard to escape that conclusion; as I documented in breaking down the Reds’ offseason just yesterday, Price was not exactly given a compelling roster to work with this year or in the past.
  • Fresh off an offseason extension, Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong has continued to carry above-average overall offensive numbers in his sophomore campaign, due mostly to a healthy .477 slugging percentage. But as Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch observes, DeJong is also exhibiting a worrying rise in strikeouts. Indeed, a league-leading thirty of his seventy plate appearances have ended with a K thus far. And DeJong has drawn only four walks, leaving him with a .286 OBP on the young season. As Frederickson notes, the 24-year-od is showing much greater selectivity thus far in 2018 than he did last year, but he’s also swinging and missing at rates typically procured only by elite relief pitchers. Much like young Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, DeJong still needs to show he can get on base consistently enough to be a compelling offensive player.

Cardinals Extend Paul DeJong

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TODAY: Bob Nightengale of USA Today has tweeted the full breakdown. DeJong will receive a $1MM signing bonus and $1MM salary this year. Thereafter, he’ll receive $1.5MM (2019 and 2020), $4MM (2021), $6MM (2022), and $9MM (2023). The first option comes with a $2MM buyout, the second a $1MM buyout.

YESTERDAY: The Cardinals have announced an extension with shortstop Paul DeJong, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first reported. DeJong is represented by the C.L. Rocks Corporation.

DeJong will be guaranteed $26MM over a six-year term, FanRag’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links). That includes $2MM in buyouts for a pair of club options that, per Goold, are valued at $12.5MM and $15MM, respectively. The $26MM guarantee on the extension breaks Tim Anderson’s record (six years, $25MM) for the largest sum ever guaranteed to a player with less than one full year of Major League service time. (Related: MLBTR Extension Tracker; Pre-Arb Extension Records).

Paul DeJong

The 24-year-old DeJong debuted with little fanfare last summer but quickly thrust himself into the national spotlight with a terrific .285/.325/.532 slash line and 25 homers through just 443 plate appearances in 108 games.

DeJong spent a bit of time at second base but spent most of his rookie season at shortstop, where Defensive Runs Saved pegged him as an average defender and Ultimate Zone Rating graded him slightly above. In all, he was worth 2.7 rWAR and 3.0 fWAR in his debut season — a strong enough performance to land him second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Cody Bellinger.

That strong rookie season wasn’t without its red flags, though, and DeJong will have some notable areas on which to focus for improvement in 2018 and beyond. Most significantly, the young slugger’s 28 percent strikeout rate and 4.7 percent walk rate each cast doubt on his ability to repeat his OBP and batting average, both of which were propped up to some extent by a .349 BABIP that looks poised for some regression. To his credit, DeJong did scale back his strikeouts and boost his walk rate over the season’s final five to six weeks, perhaps signaling that he’s already begun to make some adjustments. However, he’ll need to do so over the course of a full year to prove that this level of production is at least somewhat sustainable.

DeJong isn’t on track for Super Two status, so the Cardinals have bought out three pre-arbitration seasons and three arbitration years with today’s deal in exchange for control over his first two free-agent years. In doing so, they’ve bet a fair amount on DeJong remaining a productive cog in their infield for the foreseeable future. If he rewards that faith, however, the Cardinals will effectively control DeJong for the entirety of his prime without needing to pay for much, if any, of his decline phase. The guaranteed portion of the contract runs through DeJong’s age-29 campaign, while the two option years cover his age-30 and age-31 seasons.

From DeJong’s vantage point, he’ll now obtain his first baseball fortune three years ahead of schedule. The former fourth-round pick received a $200K signing bonus out of Illinois State in the 2015 draft but wouldn’t have been eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 season. He’ll sacrifice some earning power down the line as a would-be 30-year-old free agent, though that’s the trade-off that virtually all young players make when locking in this type of financial security well in advance.

Early extensions of this nature have become a hallmark of the Cardinals’ front office, though the success rate on such long-term deals probably hasn’t been as high as president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and GM Mike Girsch would like. The Cards have done well thus far in long-term arrangements with Carlos Martinez and Matt Carpenter. However, last year’s extension with Stephen Piscotty didn’t pay dividends as the team hoped — he’s since been traded to Oakland — nor did Allen Craig’s five-year deal (although the Cards were able to trade him before thatdeal imploded). The jury is still out on Kolten Wong’s five-year, $25.5MM deal, though Wong rebuilt his value last season after a poor 2016 campaign.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Central Notes: Santana, DeJong, Cubs

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Although outgoing Royal Eric Hosmer is a clear bet to take home the largest contract among first basemen this winter, Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs suspects that career Indians first baseman Carlos Santana will outperform Hosmer for at least the next three years. While Hosmer is younger than Santana and had a better 2017 season by fWAR, Sawchik notes that Santana’s primary skill (his batting eye) is a better bet to age well than any other skill that either player brings to the table. Hosmer has also posted negative fWAR totals in two of his major league seasons; something Santana has never done. Worth mentioning: Santana was worth a total of 21.2 fWAR from 2011-2017, while Hosmer was worth a mere 9.9.

Elsewhere across baseball’s central divisions…

  • The offseason for Cardinals’ shortstop Paul DeJong will be an interesting one. As CBS2’s Steve Overmyer reported from New York on Thursday, DeJong has joined renowned scientist Dr. Lawrence Rocks in a lab study about the effects of heat and weather on baseball flight distance. Early returns in the study seem to indicate that while baseballs are likely to travel shorter distances as temperatures get colder, they are also likely to travel shorter distances if temperatures increase past a certain point. “As you decrease temperature, you get less bounce, like an automobile tire on a very cold day – it’s a little more brittle,” Rocks said. “As you increase temperature, the elastomeres get a little mooshy; you get less bounce.”
  • While Cubs GM Jed Hoyer has declined to comment on his team’s pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago suggests a plan of attack for the team in trying to acquire the Japanese ace. While bringing an end to “The Curse” is no longer a selling point (as it may have been to Jon Lester and some others, according to Mooney), Chicago still has plenty to offer as a city. Hoyer will be working hard to put together a more attractive pitch to Ohtani and his agents than the other 29 MLB teams that will be vying for the two-way star’s services.
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