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Roger Clemens

Yanks Could Ditch Clemens

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You have probably read by now that Roger Clemens’s massive 2007 salary is not guaranteed, and the Yankees still have the option of walking away.  Brian Cashman says he’s not thinking about it right now, but surely the idea has crossed his mind.

The Rocket hopes to overcome his "fatigued groin" and make his season debut on Saturday against the Bucs.  That injury offers all kinds of dirty jokes but I’ll resist for now.  Back to the situation at hand – should the Yanks be backing out of this while they still can? 

The value of a player certainly hinges on his ability to push a team into a playoff berth.  The $4.6MM a month for Clemens can almost be justified if it’s getting the Yanks over the hump.  At fourth place and 12.5 games behind the Yankees, a division title is out.  They’re seven games out of the wild card, but need to leapfrog seven teams.  Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA think the Yankees still have a 22% chance of making the playoffs. 

Pitching, particularly starting pitching, remains a clear need.  If Clemens gives them a 3.80 ERA and Mussina rights the ship, they’ll have four solid starters.  Phil Hughes can give a boost in August.  On the offensive side, Cano, Damon, and Abreu have all been underachieving.  If a few of those guys can pick it up, the offense could rival the Red Sox for the balance of the season. 

There is definitely enough promise with this club to stick with the Clemens plan.

Clemens Chooses Yankees

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No more debating or Hendricks emails – Roger Clemens will be a Yankee in 2007.  He made the announcement today at Yankee Stadium during the seventh inning stretch.  He’s signed a minor league contract with New York and should be pitching in the bigs by June 1 at the latest.  According to Peter Gammons on Sunday Night Baseball, the Yanks offered Clemens $28MM for the season and the Red Sox $18MM.  Both figures are pro-rated, and the Red Sox were hoping to have Clemens start in late June rather than late May.  I’m surprised the Sox wouldn’t top $3MM per month.

Peter Abraham has additional details: the Yanks first offered Clemens $25.5MM in Spring Training, wanting him at that time.  Abraham says a 2007 debut in the first week of June seems likely, and a commenter at his blog makes an educated guess of June 8th against the Pirates at Yankee Stadium.

Clemens is a player worth five wins by himself in just half a season, if you are a proponent of WARP.  And I don’t mean pitching wins – I mean wins in the standings for the Yanks above what a replacement level guy, say Darrell Rasner, would provide.  What was at one point a laughable starting rotation for a team with such a huge payroll will become the following in a month and change:

Clemens
Pettitte
Mussina
Wang
Hughes

The Yankees are currently 13-15, 5.5 games behind the Red Sox.  The wild card still isn’t the most attainable alternative, with the Indians and Tigers both playing .620 baseball.

Yankees Starting Pitching Looking Ugly

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I understand that the Chien-Ming Wang injury was just bad luck, and that the Yankees are being careful with him.  Still, can you believe a $190MM team has a rotation including Carl Pavano, Darrell Rasner, and Kei Igawa right now?  The Yankees’ starting pitching has been atrocious.  I don’t mean to overreact after a week but one can certainly picture below-average contributions from Pavano and Igawa all year.  Even the Yanks can’t give away two games out of every five.

Maybe Igawa gets acclimated, posts a 4.50 ERA over the balance of the season.  But you have to admit that paying $46MM over five seasons to get him was very questionable from the start.  People spent the winter talking about the "New Yankees," who didn’t just throw money at mediocre players to solve their problems.  They did just that with Igawa, and it was clearly a reaction to the Matsuzaka signing.  Why not spend that same money to bring Ted Lilly back?  At least with that move there would’ve been relatively certainty that you’d get 180 innings of 4.50 ball, since Lilly has done it before in the AL East.   

As Joel Sherman writes, the Yankees may need to be rescued by Roger Clemens and Phil Hughes.  The team needs to call up Hughes sooner rather than later.  A front four of Mussina, Pettitte, Wang, and Hughes can certainly carry the team to the playoffs.  Filtering between Igawa and Pavano for the fifth man and skipping his turn when possible would probably be sufficient.  While Hughes would help, it’s Clemens who would really tip the balance of power towards the Yankees.  They’ll still have to convince him to leave a comfy situation in Houston. 

Cards Hope To Woo Clemens

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UPDATE: Hendricks squashed the rumor.

The big story this morning: Walt Jocketty and co. met at length with Roger Clemens’s agent Randy Hendricks yesterday.  Other clients’ of Hendricks were the main topic, but Roger’s name came up.  Unlike this winter’s Barry Bonds rumor, Jocketty isn’t denying interest. 

The Cardinals have some extra money after missing out on various pitching targets this winter.  Clemens is quite a longshot, but it’s certainly fun to speculate.  This is the single move with the largest possible impact for St. Louis.  Adding 100 innings of the Rocket would probably improve the Cardinals by 3-4 wins, based on PECOTA’s projected WARP.  And Murray Chass just stopped reading this post.

Aside from Clemens, the Cards could pursue Carl Pavano, Jon Lieber, or Brad Penny.  Penny is the possible impact arm and of course would draw much more interest if he’s available.  His overall impact would probably be similar to that of Clemens, but the bounty is to be paid in prospects.  Colby Rasmus, Jaime Garcia, and Chris Duncan could be targets of L.A.

Clemens Has 80% Chance Of Retiring

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Take it with a grain of salt, but Roger Clemens said today in a radio interview that he told his son "80-20 that I wasn’t going to play." He also said: "I’m not leaving anybody hanging. I don’t want to play."

The thing is, he is leaving everyone hanging.  Leaving someone hanging is delaying a decision about something.  As long as he leaves that door open 20% to play baseball, he’s leaving the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, and baseball fans hanging.  If I ask a girl on a date, and she says there’s a 20% chance she’ll go but she’ll get back to me in a few months…actually I would take that as a no.  Never mind.

Clemens Has 80% Chance Of Retiring

By | at

Take it with a grain of salt, but Roger Clemens said today in a radio interview that he told his son "80-20 that I wasn’t going to play." He also said: "I’m not leaving anybody hanging. I don’t want to play."

The thing is, he is leaving everyone hanging.  Leaving someone hanging is delaying a decision about something.  As long as he leaves that door open 20% to play baseball, he’s leaving the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, and baseball fans hanging.  If I ask a girl on a date, and she says there’s a 20% chance she’ll go but she’ll get back to me in a few months…actually I would take that as a no.  Never mind.

Cano Hands Over His Number

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It’s kind of cheesy, but I suppose worth a mention.  The Yankees recently asked/told second baseman Robinson Cano to hand over his #22 in the event that Roger Clemens signs with them.

Clemens’s agent replied to the gesture by saying that Clemens will make a decision well after spring training at the earliest.  I wonder if the Red Sox will respond by having Wily Mo Pena give up #22?

Red Sox Will Pursue Clemens

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In case there was any doubt, the Boston Herald’s Jeff Horrigan was able to confirm that the Red Sox will go after Roger Clemens once again if he decides to pitch.  Horrigan had an email exchange with team owner John W. Henry.

The Rocket is playing it coy once again, first holding off on deciding whether he’ll even play.  To most, it would be a surprise if he didn’t.  The media seems to believe that the Yankees are the favorite, but New York does have a lot of newspapers.  While the Clemens thing is getting old, that doesn’t mean the Astros don’t need him.

Randy Hendricks Interview

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A must read: the Houston Chronicle’s interview with Randy Hendricks, who represents Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte.

The Clemens situation remains unchanged, but you should read Hendricks’s take on it.  He thinks it’s 50/50 that Clemens plays in ’07 and that it would be a shortened season.

Hendricks also offers a lot of insight into Pettitte’s decision and the way the Astros felt about him.

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