Law On Walker, Giles, Lind Trades
Here are a few of Keith Law of ESPN’s takes on some of Wednesday’s key transactions. Law’s articles are Insider-only and contain significantly more detail that we’ll present here. We highly recommend subscribing.
- The trade for Neil Walker was a good one for the Mets, although Law is puzzled by the team’s addition of Asdrubal Cabrera. Cabrera’s deal would make sense if he were a second baseman, but with Walker in the fold, Cabrera will play shortstop, a position he can no longer play well. The Walker trade reflects the Mets’ skepticism that Dilson Herrera can take over second base next season, but Walker is a consistently solid player, and the Mets only gave up Jon Niese, who didn’t figure to play an important role for them going forward. Niese will allow the Pirates to move top prospect Tyler Glasnow along slowly, although Law notes that Niese’s lack of strikeout ability makes him a back-end starter and writes that Niese will have to improve next season to justify the Bucs picking up the first of his two options.
- In Ken Giles, the Astros got a strikeout reliever who will be a good addition to a bullpen that did register enough Ks in 2015, Law writes. They’ll also get five years of control, making Giles a valuable asset. The Phillies, however, did get plenty in return, including Vincent Velasquez, who Law thinks can stick as a starter, and Brett Oberholtzer, a back-of-the-rotation lefty who can soak up innings as the Phillies continue their rebuild.
- Adam Lind isn’t much of a defensive first baseman, Law writes, but for the Mariners, he’s still an upgrade over the recently traded Mark Trumbo. Platooning the left-handed Lind with the right-handed Jesus Montero would be a good plan, Law suggests. The Brewers, meanwhile, got three young pitchers who are possible future relievers. None of them are outstanding talents, but Milwaukee did well to get something in return for a player they didn’t really need in 2016.
Astros Close To Acquiring Ken Giles
6:19pm: A source tells Salisbury that a trade sending Giles to Houston is “close” but not done yet (Twitter link).
5:15pm: Major League lefty Brett Oberholtzer, whom the Astros have reportedly been shopping, is also being discussed in talks, tweets Salisbury.
4:16pm: Stark reports that talks currently center around well-regarded right-hander Vincent Velasquez and two other prospects (Twitter link).
2:57pm: Salisbury tweets that the Phillies have pushed back their media session for the day, which could be in relation to talks centering around Giles. ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets that Lance McCullers won’t be included in a deal for Giles, as the Astros are set on keeping him.
2:28pm: Trade talks between the Astros and Phillies centering around brilliant young closer Ken Giles are “heating up,” reports CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury (Twitter link). Houston has long been linked to top-flight relief arms, and Giles would not only give the club a dominant arm to slot into the ninth inning but also a controllable option for that role, as he’s not eligible for free agency until after the 2020 season.
Giles, who turned 25 in late September, took over as closer in Philadelphia following the trade of Jonathan Papelbon and continued to display the dominance he’s exhibited since breaking into the Majors upon being moved to a more prominent role. In 115 2/3 career innings, the former seventh-round pick has a masterful 1.56 ERA with 11.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent ground-ball rate. Giles’ fastball has averaged just a shade under 97 mph in the Majors (96.8), so he’d satisfy Houston GM previously stated interest in adding a hard-throwing arm that the back end of the Astros’ bullpen presently lacks.
The asking price on Giles, one would imagine, is exceptionally high. The Red Sox paid the substantial price of Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen for three years of Craig Kimbrel. While Giles doesn’t have Kimbrel’s lengthy track record of dominance in the Majors, he’s delivered comparable results and comes with two more years of control than did Kimbrel, two of which figure to be near the league-minimum in terms of salary. Giles should narrowly fall shy of Super Two status (he currently has one year, 113 days of Major League service time) and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2017 season.
Astros To Promote Vincent Velasquez
The Astros will promote right-handed pitching prospect Vincent Velasquez today, reports MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. He will start Wednesday’s game against the White Sox, according to McTaggart.
Velasquez entered the season ranked No. 56 on the Top 100 prospect list of ESPN’s Keith Law. He currently ranks 74th on MLB.com’s list, and he also ranked 75th according to both Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs and to Baseball Prospectus prior to Opening Day. Suffice it to say, the 2010 second-round pick is regarded as one of the most promising young arms in all of baseball.
Law says that Velasquez has the aresenal of No. 2 starter, including a 93-96 mph fastball, a plus changeup and a slider that sits 82-84 mph but still needs work, as it tends to flatten out. The consensus on Velasquez is that he may rank higher on all of these lists with a better track record of health. He missed the 2011 season due to Tommy John surgery and had a pair of non-arm-related injuries in 2014 that limited him to 63 2/3 innings. McDaniel adds that his arm troubles date back even to his high school days, where he had a stress fracture in his elbow and a ligament strain during his junior year. His 2015 season didn’t begin until May 8, but in five starts at the Double-A, Velasquez has worked to a 1.37 ERA with 37 strikeouts against nine walks in 26 1/3 innings.
For the Astros, Velasquez will be the second highly touted young arm to join their rotation in the past month or so. Right-hander Lance McCullers Jr., a 2012 first-rounder and Velasquez’s Double-A teammate as recently as four weeks ago, has made a nearly seamless transition to the Majors by tossing 24 innings of 1.88 ERA ball.
The need for reinforcements in Houston’s rotation is palpable. Despite the brilliant season of ace Dallas Keuchel (1.85 ERA in a league-leading 87 2/3 innings) and that excellent effort from McCullers, the Astros have a collective 4.14 ERA from their rotation, which ranks 17th in the Majors. Collin McHugh has yet to rediscover his 2014 breakout form, Scott Feldman had an ERA of 4.80 before going down for about six weeks with knee surgery, and Roberto Hernandez has a 5.18 ERA to show for his 66 innings of work. Brett Oberholtzer, Sam Deduno, Brad Peacock and Asher Wojciechowski have all made starts as well but have produced a mix of ineffective performances and injuries to this point.
McTaggart writes that Velasquez will be taking Hernandez’s spot in the rotation, so it would seem that the 23-year-old Velasquez (he turned 23 yesterday) has a chance to nail down a permanent rotation spot with an impressive performance. Presently, he’ll join Keuchel, McHugh, McCullers and Oberholtzer in the rotation, though Feldman will be back in about five weeks and presumably step back into the rotation.