Lance McCullers Jr.

Astros pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. is set to start the 2022 season on the IL, he told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). The right-handed pitcher continues to rehab the flexor tendon in his pitching arm that was injured during last year’s playoffs. Surgery does not appear to be in the cards at this time, and McCullers stressed he’s not dealing with a UCL issue (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

While it’s still uncertain when McCullers will be able to return atop Houston’s rotation— currently he’s not even cleared to throw— Astros brass and fans should be encouraged by the news that their pitcher has not been recommended to head down the surgical route. The 28-year-old was already known to be behind in his recovery, with MLB’s lockout disrupting that recovery process, but there was still some ambiguity about the status of the player’s health.

Fortunately, several doctors have confirmed that the 2018 Tommy John recipient has not re-injured his UCL and instead have advised non-surgical PRP injections and stem cell therapy to treat the ailing tendon. This course of action is certainly preferable to a season-derailing surgery, though it still serves as an inauspicious beginning to the $85MM extension agreed upon by player and team early last year. Even with continued rehab progress and no further setbacks, McTaggart writes that McCullers figures to be out of commission “well into April,” owing to a need to build up the starter’s pitch count.

Houston will be hard-pressed to fill the shoes of their #2 pitcher behind veteran ace Justin Verlander, as the righty posted a stout 3.16 ERA and 27.1 K% across 162 plus innings last year. Difficult as that production may be to replace however, the Astros have a stable of arms who showed ample promise in the big leagues last year. Assuming good health, each of José Urquidy, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and veteran Jake Odorizzi should do an adequate job holding down the fort until the homegrown McCullers is ready to take the hill again.

Should Houston’s top decision-makers go the way of other teams in recent days and add to their rotation depth, they will likely have the means to do so. Thanks to the new CBA, the Astros have more than $33MM to spend before hitting the first luxury tax threshold in the eyes of RosterResource, and none of the remaining pitchers on the free agent market figure to be too cost prohibitive. It remains to be seen if a deal with more Major League pitching is even on Houston’s radar, particularly if rumblings of a Carlos Correa reunion add another large salary to the books, but the Astros appear capable of weathering McCullers’ absence regardless of how the next few weeks unfold.

Lance McCullers Jr. saw his 2021 season end in the American League Division Series. He left his Game 4 start after four innings with forearm tightness, and while he and the Astros initially left open the possibility he could return later in the postseason, he wasn’t included on Houston’s rosters for either the ALCS or World Series.

McCullers was later diagnosed with a flexor strain, and it seems the injury was more serious than the club let on at the time. Speaking with Maanav Gupta of Maanav’s Sports Talk (YouTube link) this week, McCullers stated the issue “was much worse than we were putting off. … I had a pretty good strain in my flexor tendon in my forearm. It was off the bone quite a bit.”

The 28-year-old told reporters in early December he was “about a month” from beginning a throwing program. He has indeed begun to throw, but McCullers implied this week he’s not yet started to work off a mound. McCullers told Gupta he’s “behind” where he expected to be at this point in his rehab process and admitted he “(doesn’t) know if (he’ll) be ready Opening Day.” The season is currently slated to begin on March 31, which would give McCullers around five weeks to progress to game readiness from his current state.

Of course, whether the season will start on time is in question. MLB has suggested a new collective bargaining agreement would need to be in place by next Monday if the regular campaign is to be without any delay. Even as the league and Players Association have begun to meet more frequently, progress toward a mutually agreeable midpoint has been almost nonexistent. A delay to the season would afford McCullers and other injured players more time to rehab without missing game action, although it’d also prolong the ongoing ban on communication between union members and team staff.

That includes a prohibition on club medical personnel speaking with players on 40-man rosters, a provision MLB mandated when first instituting the lockout on December 2. Various people on the players’ side have expressed displeasure with that decision over the past few months, arguing that the league hadn’t been legally compelled to implement the communications ban. McCullers joined that chorus, saying the lockout has proved detrimental to his rehab.

“The lockout has made it tough because the people I would usually rely on for the rehab, I haven’t been able to speak to or communicate with,” the right-hander told Gupta. “It’s been a little bit difficult, I’m not going to lie. The rehab has been a little choppy. I was hoping to be a little bit further along than I am right now, but we have the unfortunate circumstance of being locked out. … It’s frustrating for me, because ultimately I’m the one who suffers and the fans are the ones who suffer while we argue away.”

Astros personnel are no doubt anxious to be allowed to touch base with McCullers, who is a key piece of the organization’s future. Houston inked him to a five-year, $85MM contract extension last spring that’ll go into effect this season. That was something of a bold bet by the organization, as a November 2018 Tommy John surgery and the pandemic had conspired to limit him to 55 regular season innings over the prior two seasons.

McCullers looked on his way to a bounceback before the flexor injury arose during the playoffs. He worked a career-high 162 1/3 frames across 28 starts in the regular season, posting a 3.16 ERA/4.02 SIERA. As he had throughout his career, McCullers generated an enviable combination of whiffs and ground balls. He fanned 27% of batters faced while inducing grounders on upwards of 56% of balls in play. No other pitcher with 100+ innings reached both those heights, helping McCullers overcome an elevated 11.1% walk rate to find plenty of success.

While the Astros are hopeful he’ll replicate that form in 2022, they are arguably as well-positioned as any team around the league to withstand a possible delayed start to the year from one of their top arms. Houston already brought back Justin Verlander this winter, and the club has a handful of promising younger options (José Urquidy, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier) capable of shouldering key rotation roles. Whether McCullers is able to join them in the season-opening mix may depend on how long the lockout continues to drag on.

Lance McCullers Jr. last pitched in Game 4 of the ALDS, as the Astros right-hander suffered a flexor pronator muscle strain that sidelined him for the remainder of Houston’s playoff run.  Tests at the time of the injury didn’t reveal any structural damage, and McCullers continued to give positive news when speaking The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome (Twitter link) and other reporters today before serving as an honorary captain for the NFL’s Houston Texans.

McCullers revealed that an MRI taken within the last two weeks didn’t show any damage, and Dr. Neal ElAttrache indicated that the graft McCullers received during his November 2018 Tommy John surgery is still in good condition.  The right-hander said that he is “about a month” away from beginning to throw, which represents a longer rest timeline than the six-to-eight weeks McCullers projected in late October.

Still, it would seem like McCullers is still tentatively on pace to proceed relatively normally during Spring Training, and then be ready for Opening Day.  (Obligatory caveat that the lockout could potentially delay the opening of spring camps and potentially the start of the 2022 season.)  Needless to say, the Astros would keep a close eye on any pitcher recovering from a forearm injury, but McCullers will perhaps receive particular attention given the one TJ procedure already on his health history.

That earlier procedure cost McCullers the entire 2019 season, though he has pitched well since his return to action.  The right-hander posted a 3.35 ERA, 26.5% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate in 217 1/3 innings in 2020-21, with his fastball still sitting at its pre-TJ velocity.  Health-wise, McCullers had avoided any major issues prior to this forearm problem — a minimum 10-day IL stint in 2020 due to a neck strain, and he missed about three weeks this past season with shoulder soreness.

The Astros can only wonder what might have been if McCullers had been available against the Braves in the World Series, but the concern now is getting McCullers set for the start of the next season.  He will rejoin a rotation mix that includes Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Jake Odorizzi and theoretically Justin Verlander, though Verlander’s reported two-year agreement with Houston wasn’t officially finalized prior to the lockout, and it is still unclear exactly what is causing the delay.

OCTOBER 25: McCullers confirmed he won’t be able to pitch in the World Series while speaking with reporters this afternoon (video via Mark Berman of Fox 26). The righty indicated that the strain he suffered typically requires a six-to-eight week rest period, and there’s obviously not that level of leeway remaining at this point of the season.

OCTOBER 24: Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. hasn’t pitched since Game 4 of the ALDS, and it looks like his forearm injury will end his season.  MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that McCullers won’t be available for the World Series, so Houston will now have to try and win its second consecutive postseason matchup without one of its best hurlers.

Astros GM James Click didn’t rule McCullers out when speaking to reporters (including The Houston Chronicle’s Danielle Lerner) earlier today, noting that roster decisions didn’t need to made until Tuesday morning, “and we’re going to take every minute we can just to see how he’s responding.  We’re not taking anything off the table….It’s obviously something that I know Lance wants to be out there if he can, so we will talk to the doctors and him and the trainers and figure it out from there.”

However, as open-minded as Click was about McCullers’ chances, Heyman’s report essentially formalizes what has seemed increasingly evident over the last few days.  McCullers has yet to so much as throw since suffering his injury, a strain of his flexor pronator muscle.  While the muscle injury itself doesn’t present any serious long-term issue, McCullers has already undergone Tommy John surgery (costing him the entire 2019 season), and obviously the Astros aren’t going to take any unnecessary risks with his health.

That TJ rehab cost McCullers a chance to participate in the 2019 World Series, and it’s quite possible that with a healthy McCullers in the fold, Houston would’ve been able to bring home another championship.  The righty has quietly been a very solid arm during the Astros’ postseason runs, with a 2.83 ERA over 57 1/3 innings as a starter and a reliever in the playoffs.  This year alone, McCullers allowed just one earned run in 10 2/3 frames against the White Sox in the ALDS, starting Games 1 and 4.

Framber Valdez was announced as Houston’s starter for Tuesday’s Game 1 against the Braves.  As we saw in the ALCS against the Red Sox, the Astros will take a flexible approach to their pitching plans, so no other starters have been officially slated for the other World Series games.  On paper, it would seem like the Astros would line up Luis Garcia in Game 2, Jose Urquidy in Game 3, and then Zack Greinke for perhaps only a few innings to begin Game 4, with Cristian Javier and Jake Odorizzi on hand to provide innings as long men out of the bullpen.