Lance McCullers Jr.

Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. is set to begin a minor league rehab assignment on Friday, reports Mark Berman of Fox 26 (Twitter link). He’s scheduled to throw two innings for Double-A Corpus Christi.

Pitchers can spend up to 30 days on rehab assignments, so the start of his work suggests an early-mid August timetable for his return to the big leagues if all goes as expected. McCullers has yet to pitch this year as he’s rehabbed from the flexor tendon forearm strain that cut short his 2021 postseason. While the club initially expressed hope he’d be ready for Opening Day, McCullers’ offseason rehab didn’t progress as quickly as expected. He returned to mound work by late May and has spent the past six weeks gradually building back towards game readiness.

Getting McCullers back in mid-August should afford him time to round into shape for the postseason. The Astros lead the Mariners by nine games in the AL West, and they’re even further clear of the Twins for the league’s #2 seed (and associated first-round bye). They’re a virtual playoff lock, and a healthy McCullers will only add to the team’s embarrassment of riches on the mound. The right-hander was arguably the team’s best pitcher last year, tossing 162 1/3 innings of 3.16 ERA ball while punching out 27% of opponents.

Most teams would struggle to overcome the loss of an arm of that caliber, but the Astros have sported one of baseball’s top rotations. Houston’s starting staff trails only the Yankees in ERA (3.15) and the Padres in innings pitched (522 2/3). They’re seventh in strikeout rate (23.9%) and 11th in walk percentage (7%). Aside from McCullers, Houston’s rotation has stayed mostly healthy. Jake Odorizzi missed around six weeks with a heel injury, but each of Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and José Urquidy has avoided the injured list. That sextet has combined to make all of the team’s starts, and Urquidy is the only member of the group with an ERA north of 3.76.

If everyone remains healthy, the Astros could consider kicking any of Odorizzi, Javier or Urquidy into relief. Houston’s bullpen has been similarly excellent, leading baseball with a 2.66 ERA. Their strong division lead should allow manager Dusty Baker to keep an eye on the innings totals for McCullers and Verlander (who missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery) to ensure they hit the postseason at peak form.

Astros pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. is set to start the 2022 season on the IL, he told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). The right-handed pitcher continues to rehab the flexor tendon in his pitching arm that was injured during last year’s playoffs. Surgery does not appear to be in the cards at this time, and McCullers stressed he’s not dealing with a UCL issue (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

While it’s still uncertain when McCullers will be able to return atop Houston’s rotation— currently he’s not even cleared to throw— Astros brass and fans should be encouraged by the news that their pitcher has not been recommended to head down the surgical route. The 28-year-old was already known to be behind in his recovery, with MLB’s lockout disrupting that recovery process, but there was still some ambiguity about the status of the player’s health.

Fortunately, several doctors have confirmed that the 2018 Tommy John recipient has not re-injured his UCL and instead have advised non-surgical PRP injections and stem cell therapy to treat the ailing tendon. This course of action is certainly preferable to a season-derailing surgery, though it still serves as an inauspicious beginning to the $85MM extension agreed upon by player and team early last year. Even with continued rehab progress and no further setbacks, McTaggart writes that McCullers figures to be out of commission “well into April,” owing to a need to build up the starter’s pitch count.

Houston will be hard-pressed to fill the shoes of their #2 pitcher behind veteran ace Justin Verlander, as the righty posted a stout 3.16 ERA and 27.1 K% across 162 plus innings last year. Difficult as that production may be to replace however, the Astros have a stable of arms who showed ample promise in the big leagues last year. Assuming good health, each of José Urquidy, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and veteran Jake Odorizzi should do an adequate job holding down the fort until the homegrown McCullers is ready to take the hill again.

Should Houston’s top decision-makers go the way of other teams in recent days and add to their rotation depth, they will likely have the means to do so. Thanks to the new CBA, the Astros have more than $33MM to spend before hitting the first luxury tax threshold in the eyes of RosterResource, and none of the remaining pitchers on the free agent market figure to be too cost prohibitive. It remains to be seen if a deal with more Major League pitching is even on Houston’s radar, particularly if rumblings of a Carlos Correa reunion add another large salary to the books, but the Astros appear capable of weathering McCullers’ absence regardless of how the next few weeks unfold.

Lance McCullers Jr. saw his 2021 season end in the American League Division Series. He left his Game 4 start after four innings with forearm tightness, and while he and the Astros initially left open the possibility he could return later in the postseason, he wasn’t included on Houston’s rosters for either the ALCS or World Series.

McCullers was later diagnosed with a flexor strain, and it seems the injury was more serious than the club let on at the time. Speaking with Maanav Gupta of Maanav’s Sports Talk (YouTube link) this week, McCullers stated the issue “was much worse than we were putting off. … I had a pretty good strain in my flexor tendon in my forearm. It was off the bone quite a bit.”

The 28-year-old told reporters in early December he was “about a month” from beginning a throwing program. He has indeed begun to throw, but McCullers implied this week he’s not yet started to work off a mound. McCullers told Gupta he’s “behind” where he expected to be at this point in his rehab process and admitted he “(doesn’t) know if (he’ll) be ready Opening Day.” The season is currently slated to begin on March 31, which would give McCullers around five weeks to progress to game readiness from his current state.

Of course, whether the season will start on time is in question. MLB has suggested a new collective bargaining agreement would need to be in place by next Monday if the regular campaign is to be without any delay. Even as the league and Players Association have begun to meet more frequently, progress toward a mutually agreeable midpoint has been almost nonexistent. A delay to the season would afford McCullers and other injured players more time to rehab without missing game action, although it’d also prolong the ongoing ban on communication between union members and team staff.

That includes a prohibition on club medical personnel speaking with players on 40-man rosters, a provision MLB mandated when first instituting the lockout on December 2. Various people on the players’ side have expressed displeasure with that decision over the past few months, arguing that the league hadn’t been legally compelled to implement the communications ban. McCullers joined that chorus, saying the lockout has proved detrimental to his rehab.

“The lockout has made it tough because the people I would usually rely on for the rehab, I haven’t been able to speak to or communicate with,” the right-hander told Gupta. “It’s been a little bit difficult, I’m not going to lie. The rehab has been a little choppy. I was hoping to be a little bit further along than I am right now, but we have the unfortunate circumstance of being locked out. … It’s frustrating for me, because ultimately I’m the one who suffers and the fans are the ones who suffer while we argue away.”

Astros personnel are no doubt anxious to be allowed to touch base with McCullers, who is a key piece of the organization’s future. Houston inked him to a five-year, $85MM contract extension last spring that’ll go into effect this season. That was something of a bold bet by the organization, as a November 2018 Tommy John surgery and the pandemic had conspired to limit him to 55 regular season innings over the prior two seasons.

McCullers looked on his way to a bounceback before the flexor injury arose during the playoffs. He worked a career-high 162 1/3 frames across 28 starts in the regular season, posting a 3.16 ERA/4.02 SIERA. As he had throughout his career, McCullers generated an enviable combination of whiffs and ground balls. He fanned 27% of batters faced while inducing grounders on upwards of 56% of balls in play. No other pitcher with 100+ innings reached both those heights, helping McCullers overcome an elevated 11.1% walk rate to find plenty of success.

While the Astros are hopeful he’ll replicate that form in 2022, they are arguably as well-positioned as any team around the league to withstand a possible delayed start to the year from one of their top arms. Houston already brought back Justin Verlander this winter, and the club has a handful of promising younger options (José Urquidy, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier) capable of shouldering key rotation roles. Whether McCullers is able to join them in the season-opening mix may depend on how long the lockout continues to drag on.