Rosenthal’s Latest: Andruw, Lidge, Gwynn Jr.

Ken Rosenthal has a new Full Count video up at FOXSports for your viewing pleasure.

  • Rosenthal believes that despite Andruw Jones‘s lousy May and June, he’ll still cash in this winter as the best available center fielder.  He’ll still provide more offense than Torii Hunter in the long run. 
  • The Nationals are still asking for the moon in trade talks.  If Jim Bowden does start acting reasonable, Dmitri Young, Chad Cordero, Jon Rauch, and Ryan Church could be dealt.  Word via Bill Ladson of MLB.com is that only the Braves have inquired on Young.
  • Brad Lidge is expected to remain an Astro.  The main reason: Drayton McLane still doesn’t think  his team is out of it.  Most simulations a 2% chance or less of reaching the playoffs.  If the Astros finally do acknowledge reality, they’d prefer to trade relievers other than Lidge (ie, Dan Wheeler or Chad Qualls).
  • The Rangers and Brewers were close to a trade: Akinori Otsuka to the Brewers for Tony Gwynn Jr.  Rosenthal seemed to dislike it, but I think it made sense for the Crew.  Regardless, Bill Hall‘s injury thwarted the deal as Gwynn will be needed to man center. 
  • The new plan for the Brewers is to call up 29 year-old Grant Balfour, who’s dominated in the minors.  He endured elbow and shoulder woes before undergoing Tommy John surgery in May of ’05.  In the midst of his TJ recovery, Balfour developed the need for shoulder surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff and labrum.  This guy would be pumping gas if he’d been born a few decades earlier.  After the surgeries, the Twins cut Balfour and the Reds snagged him.  Balfour rehabbed with the Reds but never made it to the bigs; the Brewers claimed him off waivers in October of ’06.  He’s all the way back; Johnny Estrada was singing his praises back in February.

Braves Inquire On Dmitri Young

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Braves "made a run" at Nationals’ first baseman Dmitri Young.  They even scouted the Mississippi Braves.  Jim Bowden, of course, asked for too much and the Braves backed off.  Maybe Bowden asked for Matt Harrison or Brandon Jones

Rosenthal mentions the Braves and Yankees as the only contenders in need of a first baseman.  However, if you’ve seen Dmitri lumbering around in the field, you know he’s a first baseman only by default.  As a DH, he could work for the Twins or Mariners.  Or, the Mariners could just start playing Ben Broussard over Jose Vidro.

Omar Minaya Trade Profile (Expos)

Omar Minaya has done so much wheeling and dealing through the years that I’ve decided to break up his trade profile into two parts – Expos and Mets.  The vast difference between the two situations is another reason to separate the posts.  Click here to Download new_york_mets_minaya.xls, an Excel file with Minaya’s entire trade history. 

The 2002-04 Expos were owned by the other 29 baseball teams, with Minaya at the helm.  It was a unique and bizarre situation.  Probably a conflict of interest, too – Bud Selig did not allow the playoff-contending 2003 Expos to add September call-ups that year because it was deemed too expensive.

Anyway, Minaya made 25 trades in his three years as GM of the Expos.  Let’s analyze some of the bigger deals.

  • 3/23/02: Sent Guillermo Mota to the Dodgers for Matt Herges.  Since Mota went on to have a couple of dominant seasons for L.A., we’ll give the advantage here to Dan Evans, then the Dodgers’ GM.  Herges was later spun by Minaya to the Pirates for Chris Young.  I still can’t credit Minaya though as he subsequently gave Young to John Hart and the Rangers for junk in April of ’04.
  • 3/25/02: Sent Jason Bay and Jim Serrano to the Mets for Lou Collier.  I’d dock some points from Minaya for this one or give Steve Phillips props, but no one respected Jason Bay in 2002.  He was traded two more times before ending up a Pirate.
  • 7/11/02: Sent Carl Pavano, Graeme Lloyd, and others to the Marlins for Cliff Floyd, Wilton Guerrero, Claudio Vargas, and cash.  Floyd was quickly spun to Boston for Sun Woo Kim and Seung Song.  Essentially Minaya gave up Pavano and Floyd for Vargas.  Vargas never did much in Montreal, so I’ll give this one to Larry Beinfest and Mike Port (Red Sox GM at that time).
  • 7/28/02: The big one: Acquired RHP Bartolo Colon and minor league RHP Tim Drew from Cleveland in exchange for 1B Lee Stevens, minor league SS Brandon Phillips, minor league LHP Cliff Lee and minor league OF Grady Sizemore.  Even with the future of the franchise in question and a desire to win now, this was just too much to give up for Colon.  You have to give this one to Mark Shapiro. 
  • 1/15/03: Big three-team deal: Acquired RHP Orlando Hernandez and RHP Rocky Biddle, INF/OF Jeff Liefer and an undisclosed amount of cash from the Chicago White Sox in a three-team trade involving the New York Yankees, while sending RHP Bartolo Colon and INF Jorge Nunez to the White Sox.  I lack the full context of this deal, but it appears that MLB wanted Minaya to trade Colon because of his $6MM salary.  I’m a little skeptical of that though because El Duque was paid $4.1MM in ’03.  Biddle and Liefer were already looking like failed prospects at the time, so Kenny Williams won there.  The Expos also missed the boat on El Duque, as he soon developed shoulder problems and needed rotator cuff surgery.  He never pitched a game for Montreal and was non-tendered the following winter.
  • 3/24/03: Traded RHP Jim Brower and a player to be named for RHP Livan Hernandez, catcher Edwards Guzman and cash.  This is clear ownage of Brian Sabean, as Hernandez became the team’s ace and the premiere innings-eater in baseball for a three-year span.
  • 12/4/03: Traded RHP Javier Vazquez for the Yankees’ 1B Nick Johnson, OF Juan Rivera and LHP Randy Choate.  Just an awesome deal for Omar, maximizing the return for Vazquez.  A huge bounty was expected though as Vazquez was 27 and coming off his career year.  As you’ll later see, Choate became John Patterson.  So that’s three bona fide solid big leaguers for Vazquez. 
  • 12/15/03: Traded C Michael Barrett to the A’s for minor league pitcher Jonathan Brett and a player to be named.  You can dog Omar for this one, though Billy Beane turned around and sent Barrett to the Cubs  for junk.  Plus, Barrett had been terrible in ’03.  Credit goes to Jim Hendry for recognizing his talent.
  • 1/5/04: Minaya acquired two still-useful players from the Indians in Ryan Church and Maicer Izturis for reliever Scott Stewart.  Stewart, a 28 year-old southpaw, had posted two fine seasons for the Expos but flamed out shortly thereafter.  Perhaps not full revenge on Mark Shapiro for the Colon deal but it was a start.
  • 3/25/04: Snagged John Patterson for Randy Choate.  Patterson’s pretty messed up these days but you can’t deny the value of 198 innings of 3.13 ball in 2005.  That’s more than Choate ever game the Diamondbacks; advantage Minaya.
  • 7/18/04: Acquired RHP Jon Rauch and RHP Gary Majewski from the White Sox for OF Carl Everett and cash.  Jurassic Carl was always pretty average for the White Sox, while the Nats’ are still enjoying the fine work of Rauch.  Doesn’t top Kenny Williams’ Colon fleecing (ewww, gross) but it’s a start.  And Majewski?  Jim Bowden later used him as a major piece in order to acquire Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, and Ryan Wagner.  Another fine move by Omar.
  • 7/31/04: Another three-team blockbuster: Traded SS Orlando Cabrera to the Red Sox. Acquired SS Alex Gonzalez, minor league RHP Francis Beltran and minor league 3B Brendan Harris from the Cubs.  Beltran never panned out, but Minaya saw something in Harris that many GMs missed.  Harris found his way to Tampa Bay and is currently sixth in VORP among rookies this year.

Looking at this progression of trades, you can see Minaya kind of learning his way.  He got burned quite a bit on his trades from 2002 through the Colon to the White Sox deal.  But then Minaya went on a major winning streak and managed to acquire some talent for the Montreal/Washington franchise on his way out.  Your thoughts, and did I misinterpret any of these trades?  We’ll cover Omar’s Mets deals next time.

MetsBlog On Cordero, Rauch, Milledge

Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog says recent buzz in Washington, D.C. has linked the Mets to relievers Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch.  He also adds that Nationals manager and former Mets’ third base coach Manny Acta is a fan of Lastings Milledge.

Milledge suffered from a sprained foot ligament for most of the season, but finally returned to the Triple A lineup on Friday. [Correction: Milledge is still on rehab and won’t return to the Triple A New Orleans club for another week or two.]  It figures that many GMs will try to pry away the 22 year-old this month.  It’s been said that Minaya wouldn’t trade him for a rental, but Cordero and Rauch are both under contract for a while.  Both relievers have strikeout rates around seven per nine innings; the Mets might prefer someone more dominant.

Has Omar Minaya ever struck a deal with Jim Bowden?  Sure.  Back in June of ’02, when Minaya was GM of the Expos and Bowden was in charge of the Reds.  Minaya sent lefty Bruce Chen to the Reds for reliever Jim Brower.

Dukes Trade Coming Soon?

The Devil Rays have a new-look outfield, with Delmon Young in center, Jonny Gomes in right, and Elijah Dukes on the bench.  Gomes just homered today and could really take off as a 30 home run guy if he plays every day.

Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times hinted this morning that if Dukes didn’t start today, his departure may be imminent.  He didn’t, and Rocco Baldelli may be back by Friday.  Some sort of action with Dukes at that point seems likely, whether a release, demotion, or trade.  Jim Bowden’s recent "character is extremely important" comment to the Washington post seems to indicate he’s not interest in Dukes despite initial reports.

However, that comment may mean nothing.  Dmitri Young choked his 21 year-old girlfriend last year, and Bowden signed him.  Most likely Bowden just needs to sit with the player and feel convinced that he is reformed.

Dukes would still be a great fit for the Marlins, baseball-wise.  The Rays were said to be looking for a solid reliever in return for Dukes, but that was a few offenses ago. 

Nationals After Elijah Dukes

According to Ken Rosenthal, Jim Bowden and the Washington Nationals are attempting to trade for Devil Rays center fielder Elijah Dukes.  Rosenthal notes that Bowden has before extended opportunities with players with off-the-field problems, most recently Dmitri Young.

Dukes, who will turn 23 later this month, has an interesting line on the season.  He’s at .199/.321/.409 with ten home runs and thirty walks in 209 plate appearances.  It’s an odd way to arrive at a .730 OPS, but ultimately puts him pretty close to the average AL center fielder (.260/.332/.408).  Obviously once Dukes’ batting average catches up – and I think it will – his OBP will be quite solid. 

Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA system shows comparables for Dukes like Rondell White, Jack Clark, Matt Holliday, Ellis Valentine, Vernon Wells, and Michael Cuddyer.  Current Nationals Alex Escobar, Austin Kearns, Ryan Langerhans, and Mike Restovich all make his top twenty as well.  I find that strange…maybe Bowden is collecting a certain type of player. 

Dukes of course carries ridiculous character and anger management issues as baggage.  The theory is that moving him away from Tampa Bay could calm him down. In the past, the Pirates and Marlins have expressed interest in Dukes.

Stark’s Latest

Jayson Stark has an assessment of the trade market over at ESPN.com.

  • Aside from the usual Mark Teixeira/Eric Gagne mentions, Stark believes many Rangers may be headed out at the trading deadline.  Specifically, he names Brad Wilkerson, Kenny Lofton, and Sammy Sosa.  Lofton is always a good midseason mercenary.  He’s like a Mike Stanton in that way.
  • Ken Griffey Jr. would approve a trade to Atlanta and might consider certain other teams.  Junior is making $12.5MM this year and next, plus a $4MM buyout for ’09.  Quite a bit of the contract is deferred, also.  $29MM over 2007-08 is still pretty steep, but now would be the right time to trade Griffey. 
  • Nationals – still asking too much for Chad Cordero.  Bowden’s got time to wait around for the right deal, I suppose.
  • Best option for Todd Helton still appears to be the Angels, in Stark’s mind.  That does not seem workable to me, because Casey Kotchman has broken out and Vlad needs access to the DH spot.
  • Speaking of DHs, this might finally be the year Mike Sweeney gets traded and gets to play for a contender.  If he heats up, maybe the Twins could snag him.
  • Michael Bourn could be a trade candidate, if the Phillies decide he’s only a future fourth outfielder.  Probably makes sense to keep him around if Aaron Rowand is going to walk after this season.
  • The Astros are buyers, and they have all sorts of needs.  A young catcher would be nice, but those are always in short supply.
  • Speaking of young catchers, Jarrod Saltalamacchia has received interest but the Braves are not biting.  A lot hinges on Scott Thorman‘s performance and, of course, which young player the Braves are offered for Salty.  Most teams would love to have him.

Cubs Trade Speculation

What are those crazy Cubs up to now?  They’ve got some surprising plans regarding their pitching staff.  Here’s the rundown:

  • Ryan Dempster may switch back to starting, after he mentors the future closer.  Dempster made six starts for the Cubs to begin 2005, four of which were quality efforts.  Apparently the Cubs think his repertoire is better suited as a starter.  He’s due $10.5MM for 2007-08, and if he can emerge as a quality #4 type starter the contract won’t look so bad.  Dempster’s best season came in 2000 with the Marlins, when he made the All-Star team and won 14 games.  His success will depend on his control.  It doesn’t appear that the Cubs are shopping him, though Paul Sullivan speculated that the Yankees could be interested.
  • Angel Guzman will be groomed as the next Cubs closer.  This is an interesting and unexpected idea.  He’s looked sharp in relief this year, but it’s only been seven innings.  He does have good stuff and decent control.  Phil Rogers offers a little Chad Cordero speculation.  It seems the Cubs will try internal options first, with the knowledge that most great closers were once starters.
  • Rogers seems to think the Cubs should let the inconsistent Carlos Zambrano walk after this season, and focus that money towards a big name hitter.  He names Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and Kosuke Fukudome as options.  I like the Fukudome idea.  According to Mike Plugh, Fukudome is best served as a right fielder.  A Cubs outfield of Soriano, Pie, and Fukudome could be a nice core.  Not sure where that would leave Matt Murton, however.
  • Rogers also reminds us that the Cubs nearly signed Japanese ace starter Hiroki Kuroda last winter, and could try again after the season.  Kuroda has great command, and won’t require a posting fee.  Kuroda chose to re-sign with the Hiroshima Carps last winter.  He’ll turn 33 before the 2008 season.

Arrivals

Sometimes transactions–especially those in the bullpen–are just roster shuffling; other times they tell you more about a team’s future plans, or at least give a fringe-type player a chance to shine and up their trade value.  The last couple of days have seen a flurry of moves, including all of the following players getting called up:

  • Winston Abreu, Nats
  • Tony Batista, Nats
  • Fausto Carmona, Indians
  • Tim Corcoran, D-Rays
  • Matt DeSalvo, Yanks (started last night)
  • Justin Germano, Padres
  • Chris Heintz, Twins (replacing Joe Mauer, sort of)
  • Jon Leicester, Orioles
  • Anthony Lerew, Braves (starting tonight)
  • Kendry Morales, Angels
  • Edward Mujica, Indians
  • Chad Orvella, D-Rays
  • Jason Simontacchi, Nats (making his first major league start since 2004)

At least the Nationals aren’t standing pat.  They’re going to figure out if anybody in the organization can get some outs if it means going through 100 pitchers to do it.

By Jeff Sackmann
Brew Crew Ball

A’s Acquire Snelling For Langerhans

According to Baseball Digest Daily, the A’s have acquired Chris Snelling from the Nationals for the just-received Ryan Langerhans.  I hope neither guy bought a condo.

Pretty interesting swap between Billy Beane and Jim Bowden.  Snelling, aka Doyle (his middle name) in U.S.S. Mariner world, was a cult favorite for many Mariners fans.  His inclusion in the Jose Vidro deal this winter was met with great disdain.  Oddly, Langerhans shows up as his fifth most comparable player according to Baseball Prospectus. 

Langerhans is a little older, and has done a better job staying healthy.  Both players can handle multiple outfield positions (well, not at once) and know how to draw a walk. They’ve got eerily similar PECOTA projections, so maybe it was just a matter of each GM preferring to bet on the other guy’s outfielder.  I think the best case scenario is that one of these guys develops into Jeromy Burnitz.

Check out Chris Needham’s take on the trade over at Capitol Punishment.

Show all