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Nick Johnson Signs Extension

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Wondering why you had that empty feeling this weekend?  I’m pretty sure it was because I briefly stopped churning out new content for you.  But never fear, we’re fully moved into our condo and I’ll try to start writing regularly again between unpacking.

One of the weekend’s stories that I wanted to comment on was Jim Bowden’s signing of first baseman Nick Johnson.  Six days ago, I remarked:

"My hunch is that the Nationals will re-sign him to a one or two year contract worth maybe $7MM annually.  It doesn’t seem like a team would commit more than two years to a player who’s never healthy."

This Saturday, Johnson signed a three-year, $16.5MM pact.  Given the huge discount, committing for that extra year isn’t a bad move.  Compare the contract to PECOTA’s estimate of his worth for the next three years:  $17,775,000.  So Bowden saved over a million bucks even if Johnson can’t maintain his 2005 level.  The upside is that there’s a very good chance he exceeds PECOTA’s projection entering his age 27 season.  By my estimation, Johnson could easily be a $12-13MM player annually.

The signing could mean that 25 year-old first baseman Larry Broadway is available.  Baseball America rates him as the Nationals’ 8th best prospect.  Broadway stumbled a bit in 2005 due to a knee injury, but BA’s scouting report says he could still be a 30 HR player in the Majors one day.

Johnson’s contract extension also means that next year’s free agent class will lack an impact first baseman, assuming Derrek Lee re-signs. 

Cubs Still Looking At Soriano?

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An emailer tells me that AM 670 The Score in Chicago reported yesterday that the Cubs are looking at Alfonso Soriano again.  They’re hoping that Brian Dopirak or Brandon Sing put up big numbers in Spring Training to boost their trade value.  There’s nothing on Score reporter George Ofman’s blog to this effect yet.

Currently, Dopirak is 5 for 9 with two home runs this spring.  Sing is 4 for 7 with two homers.  Logically, the trade rumor makes some sense for the Nationals.  Nick Johnson is an impending free agent, so it’d be nice to have some depth at first base in a barren farm system.  Dopirak took a step backward in high A ball last year, hitting .235/.289/.381 in 507 ABs.  He’s 22 years old.  Sing is 25 and was left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft this year after hitting .276/.404/.538 in Double A.

In Soriano, the Cubs would be adding their fourth second baseman.  Soriano has a career line of .280/.320/.500 for New York and Texas.  He’s 28 and will be a free agent after 2006.

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MLB Free Agents 2007: Nick Johnson

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On a slow trade rumor day, I figured it would be fun to take a good look at Nick Johnson.  Johnson will be a free agent after the 2006 season, and his name was previously bandied about in a trade rumor involving the Red Sox.  However, Nationals GM Jim Bowden has expressed a desire to re-sign his oft-injured first baseman.

Johnson is entering his age 28 season.  Last year he set a professional career high in at-bats, with 453.  He hit .289/.408/.479 with an extreme pitchers’ park as his home stadium.  His OBP was ninth in baseball.  Given his playing time and relatively mediocre slugging percentage, you might think Johnson isn’t a top ten 1B.  Baseball Prospectus says think again – including defense, they ranked him as baseball’s 6th best first baseman by WARP in 2005.  That’s ahead of players like Carlos Delgado and Richie Sexson.

According to Will Carroll, Johnson was sidelined by a bone bruise in his heel in 2005.  Unlike his previous back problems, the bruise isn’t expected to bother him in 2006.  This is Johnson’s time to shine before he hits free agency.  My hunch is that the Nationals will re-sign him to a one or two year contract worth maybe $7MM annually.  It doesn’t seem like a team would commit more than two years to a player who’s never healthy.  In addition to the Red Sox, the Devil Rays have expressed interest in Johnson in the past.  Don’t be surprised if the Indians and Giants make a play for him this summer as well.

Projection wise, PECOTA thinks Johnson will hit .265/.385/.436 this season and be worth a little more than four wins.  ZiPS expects more: .283/.402/.475.  Ron Shandler projects .279/.385/.467.  My projection is a .284 average with 20 HR and 66 RBIs in 412 ABs.  For you concerned fantasy geeks out there, Johnson whiffs a tad too much to hit in the .290s.  I doubt his employer cares about that in real life though.

It’s conceivable that Johnson could turn himself into a $10MM player with a single fully healthy season, taking a page from J.D. Drew.  He was worth a lot more than that in 2005, and should be a hot commodity at the deadline.  Problem is, the Nats don’t have anyone in the system to replace him.   

Unfounded Soriano Mets Rumor

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Alright, here’s a new one.  I can’t really verify the source, but it still seems ripe for discussion.

Word is that the Mets could send Xavier Nady, John Maine, and Jeff Keppinger to the Nationals for Alfonso Soriano, Bill Bray, and Jason Bergmann.  Let’s discuss.

Could the Mets do without Nady?  Absolutely.  Wright doesn’t need much time off, and Franco can spell Delgado.  I’m of the opinion that Victor Diaz does not need a platoon partner in right field.  Nady would be more useful for Washington.  He could handle right field for three months while Jose Guillen is out, and Matt LeCroy could spend more time backing up Brian Schneider than Nick Johnson.  Plus, Nady could take over first base in 2007 if Johnson leaves via free agency.

I’m not sure that John Maine figures into the Mets’ rotation plans.  He didn’t make their depth chart, which goes eight-deep on starting pitchers.  Maine already has Triple A experience and could probably manage a mid-4 ERA pitching half his games in RFK.  That’d be a more adequate replacement for Brian Lawrence than some sort of Drese/Rauch experiment.

Jeff Keppinger has most certainly been passed by Anderson Hernandez on the Mets’ 2B depth chart, and so the Mets wouldn’t really need him even if they let Soriano walk after 2006.  Keppinger is probably best served as a utility man anyway, and he’d get a decent opportunity backing up Jose Vidro.  Brendan Harris might already fill this role for the Nats, but he’s no sure thing.

To recap:  the Nationals would receive a borderline backup in Nady, a back-rotation starter in Maine, and a utility infielder in Keppinger.  It’s quantity over quality, but Bowden is between a rock and a hard place here with Soriano.

Speaking of which, Soriano would fit nicely into the Latino core Omar Minaya is building.  I don’t know whether the Mets would try to keep him long-term, but even a player with his flaws is a good pickup for the cost outlined here.

College product Bill Bray isn’t too far off from being a Major League setup man.  I’m not so sure Bowden would need to give him up in this deal.  It seems to tip the scales too far towards the Mets.

Likewise with Bergmann, who had a nice year last year and figured to slot into the Nats’ big league bullpen.  That’s two valuable relievers going to New York, and it seems like too much.

Admittedly the Nationals are giving up a lot of value for some questionable prospects.  On the other hand, Bowden’s trade for Soriano is Exhibit A that he is capable of making trades that do not favor the his team at all.

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Bowden Still Chasing Wily Mo

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Tucked at the bottom of Bill Ladson’s article about the Nationals’ attempts to convince Alfonso Soriano to play left field is a new trade rumor.  Well, a new old trade rumor.  According to Ladson:

"The Nationals already have feelers out for Reds outfielder Wily Mo Pena, and a Nationals scout is expected to look at him sometime this week.

The Nationals have been after Pena since last season. He is a player who Bowden acquired from the Yankees when he was the general manager of the Reds. Last year, Pena hit .254 with 19 home runs and 54 RBIs for Cincinnati. Bowden has always believed that Pena has the potential of being a similar player to Sammy Sosa."

Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA system calls for a breakout season for Wily Mo this year; something along the lines of .280 with 33 HRs in a full season.  In my own estimation, a healthy Pena might hit .253 with 33 HRs.  No one’s disputing his power, but only PECOTA thinks Pena can make a batting average jump along the lines of his comparables, Jesse Barfield and Willie Stargell.

The Reds’ desire in any Pena trade will be pitching, pitching, and more pitching.  On the Major League level, the Nationals feature John Patterson plus a whole lot of other guys that would not bring Pena in a trade.  It would be crazy for the team to trade Patterson, so let’s see what’s in the minors.

The Nats’ farm system is barren.  According to Baseball America, the club’s best young pitchers are Collin Balester, Mike Hinckley, Bill Bray, and Daryl Thompson.  I would’ve added Armando Galarraga, but the Nats traded him to Texas in the Soriano deal.  None of these guys are close to the Majors, so Bowden would probably have to rope in a third team to get one of their pitchers involved.  Even then, they don’t have much to offer. If Bowden can somehow turn Soriano, a huge mistake, into Pena, he deserves many accolades.     

Cubs Still Interested In Soriano?

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Interesting column from Dave Van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune yesterday.  The gist: a decent spring by Sammy Sosa for the Nationals could make Alfonso Soriano or Jose Vidro more expendable.

Van Dyck’s column assumes that the Nationals actually were counting on Soriano to fill an outfield spot, and that Sosa could take that spot instead.  My take: Soriano is seriously not moving to the outfield.  He’s said it over and over and my sources said the same before that.  The column also assumes a healthy Jose Vidro.  Despite some positive reports, I’m nowhere near convinced of that.  I don’t think the outfield situation affects the second base situation for the Nats.  The only variable is Vidro’s health.  If he’s in great shape this spring, they have a surplus.

Both Soriano and Vidro’s contracts are terribly bloated.  Can Soriano possibly provide $11MM worth of value in 2006?  Highly unlikely.  He’s been less than a four win player each season since joining Texas.  According to Baseball Prospectus’s Marginal Value Above Replacement Player,  Soriano will be worth around $7MM in this season.

The same system has Vidro worth about $3.5MM in ’06 and $2.5MM in ’07.  Given that he’s owed $16MM over the next two seasons, Jim Bowden would have to kick in some major cash for it to make sense for Chicago.

The Cubs’ apparent infatuation with various overpaid second basemen doesn’t gel with the supposed new organizational philosophy.  I thought the Cubs were shifting towards OBP and defense, two attributes not found in Soriano’s repertoire.  The Cubs would be well served to put their efforts towards Julio Lugo, who is available and was a seven win shortstop in 2005.  Even the most optimistic projection of Ronny Cedeno doesn’t call for that kind of production, and three or four extra wins could make all the difference.

The Mets seem content with their internal options for second base, so the Cubs probably are the only team interested in Soriano at this point. 

Nationals Make Guaranteed Offer To Sosa

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The genius of Jim Bowden strikes again.  He’s offered Sammy Sosa a guaranteed Major League contract with incentives.

It seems like Washington was the only club considering such an offer.  Sosa earned $17MM in 2005, and had negative offensive value.  He was outhit by many pitchers, including Elmer Dessens, Hector Carrasco, and Josh Fogg.  He just barely edged out Braves pitcher Jorge Sosa offensively.

However, Sosa was far from the worst hitter in baseball.  That honor goes to Miguel Olivo’s Seattle stint, where he hit .151/.172/.276 in 157 plate appearances.  Nipping at Olivo’s heels was Corey Patterson, who hit .215/.251/.348 in 483 plate appearances.

Should we expect another laughably bad season from the former idol?  Tough to say.  Let’s take a look at the field of forecasters, using the AVG-HR-RBI-runs format and pro-rating to my projected total of 486 ABs.

RotoAuthority:  .245-19-60-51
PECOTA:           .242-21-76-53
ZiPS:                .227-23-74-39

Outlook: not so good.  Sosa looks to serve as the backup for Jose Guillen, who is in no hurry to get back after November labrum surgery.  Guillen should miss at least a month of the season. Why can’t Ryan Church get some love?

Mark your calendars for Tuesday, May 16th at 7:05.  That would presumably mark Sosa’s return to Wrigley Field if he accepts the Nats’ offer and stays healthy that long.  It’s not entirely out of the question that Sosa could be pursuing his 600th home run during the Wrigley Series if he has a great April.  He has faced Greg Maddux more than any other Cubs starter, and has three home runs in 56 at-bats against him.

Latest Red Sox Rumor – Clement, Vidro, Milledge

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Several emailers have alerted me to a post made over at Sons of Sam Horn late last night.  A respected poster lays out this scenario:

Red Sox trade Matt Clement and Alex Cora
Nationals trade Jose Vidro and Jay Bergmann
Mets trade Lastings Milledge and Xavier Nady (with some chance of Victor Diaz instead of Milledge)

Red Sox receive Milledge and Nady
Nationals receive Clement and Cora plus cash if Clement pitches over 150 innings
Mets receive Vidro and Bergmann plus a PTNBL from either Nats or Sox depending on Vidro’s health. (Livan Hernandez could end up with the Mets as well)

I paraphrased a few things but this is all from the post.  I haven’t heard anything about these players lately, but I thought the rumor would make for interesting discussion.  My thoughts:

From the Red Sox point of view, it’s either a steal or a salary dump.  It’d be a steal if Milledge were indeed the centerpiece.  However, there are some who believe Milledge is not even a top 100 prospect.  Don’t gasp, Mets fans – David Luciani knows what he’s talking about and still respects Milledge.

If the Red Sox are acquiring Diaz and Nady for Clement, I can’t see a big improvement to their club for 2006.  It would have to be motivated by the $19MM owed to Clement over the next two seasons, but the Red Sox aren’t having budget problems so it doesn’t make a lot of sense.  The issue of whether the Sox have starting pitching depth from which to deal has been debated endlessly; it depends on how you evaluate their young guys.

The Nationals wouldn’t be surrendering much to get Clement.  I’ve been told Vidro’s health is still questionable, and he makes $23MM over the next three seasons.  The team would love to get out from under that contract.  24 year-old Bergmann looks like a decent enough reliever, but not a top tier prospect.  The Nationals would definitely have to bump someone out of the rotation to give Clement a spot.  They are currently six deep with Tony Armas, Ryan Drese, Livan Hernandez, Brian Lawrence, Ramon Ortiz, and John Patterson.

The deal makes the least amount of sense for the Mets.  It’s been stated repeatedly that the team wants to hold onto Milledge, and that is thought to be the only reason they haven’t traded for Barry Zito.  So the addition of Vidro and his albatross contract doesn’t equate here.  Add Livan Hernandez and you might have something, but the 30 year-old may not be ace material anymore after posting a 1.43 WHIP in 2005.

Jeff Weaver: Last Man Standing

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I ranked Jeff Weaver 18th overall on my Top 50 Free Agents for 2006, and he’s easily the best remaining starting pitcher (Roger Clemens aside).  After Weaver the dropoff is huge – it’s Kevin Brown or Lima Time.  Kind of remains me of this, a memory I’ve been trying to repress for ten years.

For a while it seemed like Weaver was being strangely undervalued in the market.  He’s a very dependable starter and he’s still 29.  He’s thrown 444 innings over the past two seasons with the Dodgers, compiling a 4.11 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 6.3 K/9 during that span. 

Ken Rosenthal cleared this muddy picture for us yesterday after speaking with Weaver’s agent, Scott Boras.  We now know that Weaver hadn’t actually hit the market until now.  Boras delayed Weaver’s release date to give the Dodgers first crack at him.  It seems that a three-year contract with an option would’ve gotten the job done, but it might take four years at this point.

Last week, Weaver was looking like a potential free agent bargain in the vein of Kevin Millwood last year for the Indians.  If nobody wanted to give him three years and $30MM (or whatever), he’d just take a one-year, $8MM deal or something.  However, what this potential bargain has taken a 180.  It’s fairly obvious that once a ton of people want something, it becomes overvalued.  Such will be the case with Weaver, who has eight teams after him.

Rosenthal’s speculation on that front: the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Orioles.  Let’s expand on that and try to nail the possibilities.

Orioles – Given Weaver’s recent durability, we know Peter Angelos’s injury hangups probably won’t come into play here.  And let’s not rule out the ballclub just because Angelos and Boras aren’t best buddies.  The club talks to all agents and is a good fit for Weaver.

Red Sox – I can’t help but doubt the Sox want to bring Weaver back into the AL East.  His 5.99 ERA with the Yankees in ’03 looms large.

Tigers – No one seems to think the Tigers would bring Weaver back.  Their rotation is pretty much set anyway.

Angels – Maybe he’d love to play with his brother Jered one day, et cetera et cetera.  This is cited as a pretty big reason for the Angels to be in play, but a lot of us thought the Braves would end up with Brian Giles for the same reason.  According to Bill Stoneman, signing Weaver is "not a likely thing."

Mets – Sure, why not?  Pedro, Glavine, Weaver, Benson, Trachsel.  You could do worse.

Phillies – Let’s see how this rotation looks so far: Lieber, Lidle, Madson, Myers, Ryan Franklin.  I think they’re set, especially with a few options in-house for replacements.

Nationals – It’s looking like they’re going with John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Brian Lawrence, and Tony Armas.  Ryan Drese is floating around as well.  I know they’re mentioned as a main suitor, but I don’t see it.

Cubs – Certainly seems like a legit possibility.  No Boras reservations.  Possible rotation: Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, Wood, Jerome Williams.  Not counting on Wood probably means Glendon Rusch or Rich Hill though.  Despite the surplus, the Cubs have been making noise about adding another starter.  Perhaps Williams would be dealt (although this seems like an unwise course of action to me).

Astros – Weaver would definitely solidify things and relieve their dependency on Roger Clemens.

Cardinals – They will be going with Carpenter, Mulder, Suppan, Marquis, and Reyes in the rotation.  If Marquis is traded and Ponson does not take his spot, it would make sense to add Weaver to the mix.  After all, Jocketty has pursued Javier Vazquez, Matt Morris, and A.J. Burnett this winter.  Perhaps the Cardinal faithful can tell us whether he’d fit into the payroll.

Diamondbacks – No plans to pursue Weaver, according to Josh Byrnes.

I think that pretty much sums it up.  In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels.  Just my best guess.  I’d like to hear your thoughts in the comments.

Four Teams After Patterson

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According to Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000, four different teams have interest in Cubs former phenom Corey Patterson.  The contenders are the Orioles, Mariners, Rangers, and Nationals.  Hendry apparently wants at least two young players in return.  A trade is possible next week.

Personally, I hope Hendry chooses quality over quantity here.  Running down the teams:

The Orioles have nothing to lose by throwing Patterson in CF and seeing if he can reignite his career.  The club doesn’t seem fond of Luis Matos at this point. 

A trade to the Mariners would imply the departure of Jeremy Reed, which would be a curious decision by Bill Bavasi.  We’ve heard in the past that he could go to Boston for various young starters.

The Rangers have a lot of outfielders – David Dellucci, Gary Matthews Jr., Kevin Mench, Laynce Nix, and Brad Wilkerson.  Dellucci is a fit for DH, and the rest have all been mentioned in trade rumors.  Why Daniels would want to replace one of the four with Patterson is beyond me.

Ryan Church is a better fit in right field for the Nationals, but that’s Jose Guillen’s position.  Brandon Watson and Marlon Byrd may not be regulars, so moving Church to left and giving Patterson a shot isn’t a terrible idea. Although Watson seems like a better option that Patterson based on his Triple A stats.

Thanks to Alex

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