Chad Cordero Struggling
As Mark Zuckerman writes, Chad Cordero‘s slow start to the 2007 season isn’t doing much for his trade value. In the early going, Washington’s closer has started relying more on his mediocre breaking pitches. He was concerned that hitters would sit on his fastball. Now he’s falling behind to most hitters. Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post gives his take here.
Home runs were a major issue for Cordero last year; he’s on the same path this season with three allowed in 9.1 innings. His normally solid control has been lousy, and he’s given up more hits than a pitching machine.
Keith Law’s scouting report in March warned of this (subscription required):
"American League teams looking at Chad Cordero as a closer solution might want to pause before meeting the high price Washington is asking for him. Cordero was throwing between 87 and 89 on Friday, and while he has a solid breaking ball, he works too often in the upper half of the zone — giving up 13 homers last year in a tough home-run park — and is just a tiny slip in command away from being a back-end reliever."
The old adage about trading a guy a year too early might apply here…will Cordero ever bounce back and have another 30 save season? He’s up to $4.15MM now and reaches free agency after the 2009 season. Even if he’s slipping, Cordero could probably help the Phillies, Reds, or Giants.
Should Nationals Sign Andruw Jones This Winter?
Do you believe in the theory that a rebuilding team like the Royals or Nationals needs to make a "splash" as a good faith gesture toward the fanbase? Thom Loverro of the Washington Times does. And not just an ill-advised $55 deal like Gil Meche‘s – he wants to the Nats to sign Andruw Jones this offseason.
Loverro believes that a new ballpark wouldn’t be enough, and that a superstar needs to be paired with Ryan Zimmerman to keep fans coming through the tough years. Do I agree with Loverro and Bobby Cox that Jones is in the middle of his prime right now? No. But he should age well, and the Nats have nothing going on in center field. I do agree with Loverro that this expenditure makes more sense than Alfonso Soriano, especially if the price tag is similar.
Nats President Stan Kasten was also President of the Braves, and wants to build the Nationals in their image. That means focusing on the farm system and making that splash when the team is ready to contend. I highly doubt the Nats would seriously consider signing a guy like Jones this winter. But for a struggling team looking for some goodwill and a contract that might not destroy them in 2013, Jones is the best candidate.
I think in the long-term, the Nationals will still be better off suffering through subpar attendance years and building the team without any dangerously massive contracts.
In case you’re curious, there are only a handful of quality future free agents who will be under 30 in 2008: Corey Patterson, Carlos Zambrano, Jason Jennings, and Mark Buehrle.
Rockies Come Calling On Cordero
The Denver Post reports that the Rockies expressed interest in Washington Nationals’ closer Chad Cordero. The Nationals gave the Rockies the same answer they give everyone that comes calling on Cordero: he’s not available.
Is March 31st too early to talk about a trading deadline that is four months away? If The Nationals are smart, they will hang onto Cordero until they have the maximum amount of leverage, and that’s in July. General manager Jim Bowden proved last year in trade discussions regarding Alfonso Soriano that he isn’t going to make a deal that he doesn’t feel gets the proper return, so when July comes around, other general managers will have to factor that into their offers.
Having said that, the Nationals would be foolish not to trade Cordero at some point this season. An elite closer is a luxury a 100-loss team can not afford.
Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere".
Rockies Interested In Chad Cordero
Surprisingly, Ken Rosenthal is indicating that the Rockies are interested in Nationals closer Chad Cordero. I didn’t realize the Rockies were that serious about bullpen help, but it makes sense. However, Cordero doesn’t seem like the right target as he is a flyball pitcher.
It may be a moot point in that discussions haven’t occurred for weeks between the two clubs. It seems that Jim Bowden is looking for two of the Rockies’ five best prospects, and they have some excellent ones. Of course, Trader Jim is in the catbird seat. Other highlights of Rosenthal’s article:
- The Rangers want a decent right-handed hitting fourth outfielder like Chris Denorfia or Jason Ellison. Ellison seems more likely to be dealt as he’s out of options. Ellison’s not young, but hitting .400 for a third of a season at Triple A should draw some attention.
- In addition to the Cubs, Marlins, and Rangers, the Twins like Clint Barmes. Despite an awful ’06, Barmes definitely has his uses. PECOTA calls for a fairly solid .277/.321/.421 line.
- Perhaps in an attempt to lead the league in DL days, the A’s inquired on Chris Snelling. Again, Bowden asked for too much in return.
Ken Rosenthal’s Latest
Ken Rosenthal has been hard at work with his sources, and he has a new article at FOX Sports. Some highlights:
- The Marlins and Dodgers are interested in Byung-Hyun Kim as a reliever, and the A’s could add him as the fifth starter instead of Joe Kennedy. Kim, a 28 year-old sidearmer, hasn’t closed since ’03 with Boston. A trade to Florida would make him the ninth inning favorite though. He’ll earn $2.5MM this year.
- The Rockies like Mark Hendrickson of L.A., and they may release Josh Fogg this spring. I wouldn’t discard Kim while acquiring Hendrickson; Kim projects as a slightly better pitcher. Advantages to acquiring Hendrickson from Dan O’Dowd’s point of view: a slightly better groundball rate and two years remaining until free agency.
- The Blue Jays want to give Josh Towers a rotation spot. Towers has nine Ks in nine innings this spring while allowing two runs. Does spring training really have that kind of influence on a team’s decision-makers? Towers will make $2.9MM this season, but he’s still pretty far from free agency. The Jays would like to trade John Thomson; otherwise they may release him. As a newly signed free agent Thomson can veto any deal. He’d be wise to take a trade to the NL, in my opinion.
- Rosenthal thinks the Orioles and Nationals will be competing for Mark Teixeira, who will become a free agent after the 2008 season. Tex is a Maryland native, which usually doesn’t matter for a Boras client. But Boras might actually be able to use this to get the two clubs bidding against each other.
Red Sox Scouting Turnbow?
My apologies for the lack of posts today; I had an all-day fantasy draft. Back to trade rumors: Adam McCalvy of MLB.com had several Brewers ones in today’s article.
To begin with, 26 year-old righty starter Ben Hendrickson cleared waivers and was sent to Triple A. He was angry about it, perhaps because he had a 2.45 ERA in five appearances this spring. Apparently the Nationals and Padres are interested, and both the Brewers and Hendrickson look forward to a trade. According to Baseball America, Hendrickson has a plus curve and an 88-91 fastball. He may be a Quad-A type player; PECOTA sees a 5.00 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 109 innings.
The Red Sox had a scout watching Derrick Turnbow on Friday, though Doug Melvin says he’s not shopping the reliever. Maybe Sox pitching coach John Farrell can fix Turnbow’s walk problem, but it’s a long shot. Turnbow has two years and $5.5MM left on his contract. While that extension was ill-advised, it’s not nearly as bad as the Cubs giving Ryan Dempster three years and $15.5MM. In both cases, fairly small samples of decent control were taken as permanent and rewarded.
McCalvy also mentioned a "lunchroom rumor" that had the Padres looking at Brady Clark. Melvin said he hasn’t heard from the club. The Crew would love to shed Clark’s $3.8MM salary.
Marlins Trade Rumors
The Fish might do some minor dealing in the coming days. Let’s see what they have cooking.
For one, Mike Berardino of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel thinks they should bring Armando Benitez back, now that he’s healthy. He says it would probably only cost the Marlins a million bucks in addition to the player(s) they trade. Benitez says he hasn’t been in shape like he is now since he played for the Orioles.
The Marlins may have their eye on a couple of Red Sox: center fielder David Murphy and pitcher Kyle Snyder. The Nationals also have interest in Snyder. Snyder, 29, hails from Florida for what that’s worth. He can probably post an ERA below 5 in the NL, so he belongs on someone’s roster. Murphy still has a chance to become a credible CF, especially if his new build adds a little power. Houston also likes Murphy.
Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post has another tidbit: though the Marlins scouted Jorge Julio, they’re not close to proposing a deal.
Finally, the Marlins have no interest in Javy Lopez but are drawing interest for outfielder Cody Ross.
Young Players Covet Long-Term Security
Locking up promising young players to avoid their arbitration years has become all the rage these days. It can be argued as win-win, as the player trades some risk for a smaller AAV than he could get going year to year.
- The Padres are looking to give first baseman Adrian Gonzalez a long-term deal after a contract renewal near the league minimum. They did this with Jake Peavy, though Kevin Towers renewed him in after each of his first two seasons.
- The Nationals will meet with Ryan Zimmerman‘s agent tomorrow. Barry Svrluga thinks David Wright‘s contract could be the benchmark.
- Felix Hernandez told John Hickey he’d been hoping for a multiyear deal with the Mariners rather than a renewal. If he improves upon his 2006 season and stays healthy, he might get around four years and $10MM. The Mariners have actually had talks with second baseman Jose Lopez regarding a multiyear deal.
- Keep in mind that it’s definitely not a risk-free proposition for the team. Look no further than the four-year, $11MM contract given to Royals shortstop Angel Berroa following his Rookie of the Year 2003 season.
2007 Washington Nationals
Ah, I bet you thought I wouldn’t come through with this one today, eh? Time to take a look at those lovable Washington Nationals.
Jim Bowden’s contract obligations:
C – Brian Schneider – $3.5MM
C – Jesus Flores – $0.38MM
C/1B – Robert Fick – $0.38MM
1B – Larry Broadway – $0.38MM
2B – Felipe Lopez – $3.9MM
SS – Cristian Guzman – $4.2MM
3B – Ryan Zimmerman – $0.38MM
IF – Ron Belliard – $0.75MM
IF – Travis Lee – $0.38MM
LF – Ryan Church – $0.38MM
CF – Nook Logan – $0.38MM
RF – Austin Kearns – $3.5MM
OF – Chris Snelling – $0.45MM
SP – John Patterson – $0.85MM
SP – Jerome Williams – $0.5MM
SP – Tim Redding – $0.38MM
SP – Shawn Hill – $0.38MM
SP – Matt Chico – $0.38MM
SP – Beltran Perez – $0.38MM
RP – Chad Cordero – $4.15MM
RP – Luis Ayala – $1.3MM
RP – Jon Rauch – $0.38MM
RP – Ryan Wagner – $0.38MM
RP – Ray King – $0.38MM
RP – Levale Speigner – $0.38MM
Injured:
1B – Nick Johnson – $5.5MM (June return expected for broken femur)
OF – Alex Escobar – $0.53MM (May start year on DL following Sept.labrum surgery)
SP – Brandon Claussen – $0.38MM (Hopes for a May return from rotator cuff surgery)
SP – Mike O’Connor – $0.38MM (November elbow surgery)
That’s my exhausting take on the 25-man roster. I’m no roster construction expert, but I read up on some popular Nats blogs and took my best shot. (By the way – Nationals Power is the new kid on the block. Check it out.) The players listed here amount to $35-36MM.
The Nats are committed to keeping Rule 5 pick Jesus Flores and want to use him as a backup catcher. Baseball America thinks a year on Washington’s bench would hurt the slugging catcher’s development, given that he’s jumping up from A ball. My version of the roster has Fick so that Flores won’t get overexposed.
Washington will be without perhaps their best hitter in Johnson until June or so. Broadway appears to be the favorite to start at first, with Travis Lee and Dmitri Young also in the mix. I’ll go with Lee for his oft-cited glovework. It’s still an open competition at this point.
Lopez has played twelve games at 2B in his Major League career, but the Nationals will try it in hopes of getting some value out of Guzman. Should Guzzie bomb again, Lopez moves to short and Belliard takes over at second.
It seems Church will get a crack at starting in left under a fresh manager, so he needs to make the most of it. Snelling will provide ample competition.
Overall, only Lopez, Zimmerman, and maybe Kearns can be expected to provide above average offense for their positions. This team will struggle to score runs, but expectations are low anyway. On the bright side, the defense looks respectable.
You can see my guess at the rotation; the first four seem fairly likely. Chico, a 23 year-old southpaw who came over in the Livan Hernandez deal, hasn’t pitched above Double A yet. He’s got a four-pitch mix and sits in the low 90s. An ERA below 5 would be a success if he makes the team. He’s got Jarrod Washburn among his comps.
The point has been made that this motley crew of starters can’t be worse than last year’s, and I agree. Redding, Williams, and Claussen are the right kind of gambles for the Nationals. I think they’d be satisfied if one solid guy emerged behind Patterson for ’08.
The pen is an intriguing mix, the purported strength of the club. Should Ayala bounce back from elbow surgery, he’ll form an underrated trio with Cordero and Rauch. King adds character, while Speigner is a Rule 5 attempt who closed in Double A last year.
Sure, the Nats will be bad. Still, they’ve got an impressive rookie manager and the ability to play the spoiler on certain nights. You gotta start somewhere.
Nationals Sign Ron Belliard
UPDATE: Baseball Digest Daily is reporting that the Nationals have signed Belliard to a non-guaranteed minor-league contract. RotoWorld says he’ll earn $750K upon making the team. A disappointing result for the second baseman.
It looks like the best Ron Belliard might be able to manage is a backup infielder role with the Nationals. The club is eyeing him for their bench, though they probably wouldn’t pay more than a million or two. Belliard had lousy luck, reaching free agency in a year with a surplus of second basemen.
If signed, Belliard would back up Felipe Lopez at second and Ryan Zimmerman at third. It’s not a hopeless situation for him, though. As Bill Ladson says, Lopez could shift back to short if Cristian Guzman is awful again or is dealt. This might be Belliard’s best shot at regular duty.
Earlier this month, Belliard was named in a federal extortion case.