Headlines

  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Not Buying Baez

By Tim Dierkes | January 2, 2006 at 11:40am CDT

There’s about a dozen different trade scenarios floating around where reliever Danys Baez ends up with the Mets.  In every one, the price is steep – it typically involves surrendering Aaron Heilman.  I was curious as to whether Baez is worth all this hype.  Let’s take a look.

Vital Stats

Danys Baez is still young; he’ll be entering his age 28 season in 2006.  The Cuban righthander throws a high 90s heater.  The D-Rays signed him as a free agent from the Indians through some sort of loophole, and he’ll make $4MM in 2006. For his career, Baez has a 3.69 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 431 innings.

2005 Season

I’m guessing that some GMs or fans think Baez turned a corner in 2005 due to his 2.86 ERA.  I don’t think he did.  He was about the same or worse in hits, home runs, walks, and strikeouts as he was in 2004, when he posted a 3.57 ERA.  Plug Baez’s 2005 numbers into Bill James’s component ERA formula, and he probably should’ve had a 3.74 ERA this year, a touch better than the immortal John Wasdin.

Taking a look at Baseball Prospectus’s VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Baez was on par with Washington reliever Luis Ayala, and a bit worse than Pete Walker.  Those two guys don’t throw hard, however, so they’re not high on anyone’s offseason shopping list.


The Save Factor

Even now, in 2006, relievers’ saves totals are being overvalued.  Baez has saved 102 games in his career, and I think it’s inflating his value tremendously.  It’s tough for GMs to ignore that gaudy saves total from ’05, 41 of them to be exact.  Does saving 40 games make you an elite reliever? 

Of course not.  Bob Wickman, Jose Mesa, Danny Graves, Mike Williams, Jose Jimenez, and Antonio Alfonseca are all just marginal relievers who happen to have been granted the opportunity to finish games.  Hell, Rocky Biddle saved 34 games in 2003.  To repeat the mantra of Moneyball: plug any halfway decent reliever into the 9th inning, he’ll rack up saves and his value will be inflated.  Billy Beane has this down to a science, breeding closers and shipping them off for better players almost annually.

Back to Baez

Baez is tough to hit.  He does a reasonable job keeping home runs off the board.  He walks a lot of guys.  His strikeout rate is declining and may slip below league average in 2006.  He’ll be making around $6MM in 2007 and beyond.  He’s just not worth an Aaron Heilman, a Jae Seo, or any solid young pitcher.   

Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

New York Mets Danys Baez

Cliff Lee Projection
Main
Cubs Still Discussing Zito, Tejada
View Comments (0)

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Please login to leave a reply.
Log in Register

ad: 300x250_1_MLB

    Top Stories
    Recent

    What Changed For Orlando Hudson

    Heyman On Floyd, Gregg, Soriano

    Odds & Ends: Rangers, Wheeler, Red Sox

    Unfinished Business: Remaining Team Needs

    Unfinished Business: AL East

    Poll: Where Will Adrian Beltre Sign

    Six Teams Interested In Chad Qualls

    Odds & Ends: Morse, Pettitte, Miller, Durbin

    MLBTR Chat Transcript

    Lots Of Arb Cases For Angels, Jays, Giants, Padres

    ad: 300x250_5_side_mlb

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Shohei Ohtani Rumors
    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Go Ad-Free
    • 2023-24 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2024-25 MLB Free Agent List
    • MLB Player Chats
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    ad: 160x600_MLB

    Navigation

    MLBTR INFO

    Connect

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    hide arrowsFOX Sports Engage Network scroll to top
    Close

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version