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Cubs/Red Sox/Mariners Trade Possible

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A reliable source told me today about a three-way deal that is "imminent."  It’s always risky to throw around "imminent," but I’m just quoting him here.

Here’s the scenario:

BOS gives: Bronson Arroyo, Tony Graffanino, PTBNL

BOS gets: Jeremy Reed, Will Ohman

CHC gives: Corey Patterson, Ohman

CHC gets: Raul Ibanez, Graffanino, cash

SEA gives: Reed, Ibanez, cash

SEA gets: Arroyo, Patterson, PTBNL

Let’s evaluate.  There’s no doubt the Cubs would be making out like bandits in this trade.  Corey Patterson is useless to them, even as a fourth outfielder.  28 year-old lefty Ohman tossed a solid 43 innings this year, and seems recovered from his January 2002 Tommy John surgery.

But Chicago’s bounty seems to outweigh the former phenom and useful southpaw.  Ibanez is on the hook for just $4.25MM in 2006, and the 33 year-old is probably good for a .290/.350/.460 line in 2006.  He played 55 games in left field for the Mariners in 2005.  I’ve projected him at .288 with 21 HR, 84 RBI, 89 runs, and 8 steals for 2006.  Graffanino could probably chip in with some decent on-base skills from 2B or a utility role.

My Arroyo projection has him leading the Red Sox in wins with 16.  Arroyo does a good job limiting his baserunners and should have an ERA under 4.  I don’t think Safeco would have a major effect on his numbers.  Reed should continue to improve all facets of his game in ’06, and would be a nice pickup for the Red Sox.

There may be a holdup in the deal because the Red Sox want to trade before Graffanino and Arroyo hit arbitration, and the Cubs want to wait.  The word is that Mariners GM Bill Bavasi is strangely infatuated with Corey Patterson. If that’s the case, Hendry should strike while the iron is hot.  I don’t have any information on where Matt Murton would find himself if the proposed trade takes place, but he wouldn’t have a starting gig for the Cubs.

Latest Astros Buzz

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Today we’ve got some Astros info for you to digest.

According to an emailer, Richard Justice recently spoke with Astros GM Tim Purpura on Sports Radio 610.  Here’s what came out of the discussion:

The Astros aren’t expecting much from Jeff Bagwell, surprise surprise.  The main concern is, of course, his inability to throw.  In Brian McTaggart’s article in the Houston Chronicle today, he mentions that Bagwell "will have his shoulder analyzed next week by respected orthopedic surgeon Dr. James Andrews in Birmingham."  Expect Bags to be relegated to pinch-hitting duties given the Preston Wilson signing.  I don’t have anything new on the Astros’ interest in White Sox righthander Jose Contreras, but Willy Taveras could be expendable given Wilson’s ability to play center field.

Purpura spoke to Roger Clemens two days ago at Minute Maid.  Clemens has not cleaned out his locker in at the ballpark.  I still believe that Clemens will return to the Astros in mid-June.

Today in the Baltimore Sun, Jeff Zrebiec and Dan Connolly mention that "The Red Sox, Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs appear to be the leaders in the Tejada sweepstakes." Adam Everett and Brandon Backe are certainly available on the Astros, but it’ll obviously require a lot more than that to get Miguel Tejada.  Brad Lidge won’t be involved in any deal for the shortstop.

I’ll see if I can dig up any additional info on these topics.

Cards Make Offer to Felix Rodriguez

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A source close to the Cardinals’ organization is informing me that the club has an offer out to righthanded reliever Felix Rodriguez.  Details of the team’s proposal are not yet known.  Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch previously reported that the Cards were close to signing Rodriguez on December 21st.

The 33 year-old reliever has pitched 556 innings in his career, posting a 3.51 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.  Rodriguez’s prime came with the Giants.  In 2001, he won 9 games with a 1.68 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 80 innings for San Francisco.  Torn knee cartilage limited Rodriguez to 32 ineffective innings this year for the Yankees. 

  The Cards’ proposal is likely in the range of $2-3MM for one year.  The team has already added Braden Looper, Ricardo Rincon, and possibly Sidney Ponson for their 2006 bullpen. 

Agreement For Manny Trade?

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The latest Manny rumor making the rounds comes courtesy of commenter Wild Bill from the Orioles Hangout Forum.  As far as Bill’s track record, I can direct you to a thread over at Sons of Sam Horn.  According to the poster:

"There are three reputed "insiders" [at Orioles Hangout] and all three seem to agree that the trade has been agreed upon in principal but that Manny’s request for an extension will likely cause the deal to fall through. As for their validity, it seems each does have a source either within the Orioles organization or one who is once removed from someone inside.

That said, I don’t believe any of them have access to Mike Flanigan or any direct decision maker. The only thing that makes me feel this could be accurate is the fact that all three agree. Generally, they tend to have slightly different takes on the goings on inside the Orioles’ FO."

Here’s the main point of Wild Bill’s post:

"The word is the Tejada-Ramirez/Clement trade has been agreed to in principle by the two teams blocked only at this time with last minute complications caused by Manny."

Using 2005 WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) values, the net gain for the Red Sox would be -3.6 wins.  Meaning that in a vacuum, this trade makes the team worse.  Of course, the move would free up significant salary for the Sox (I haven’t heard whether money would change hands) so the team would probably make up the difference in value somewhere else.

Manny Ramirez is on the hook for $58MM over the next three seasons.  Matt Clement will make $19MM over the next two seasons.  Miguel Tejada is owed $48MM over the next four seasons.  For the 2006 season only, this trade would free up $18.5MM for the Red Sox.

I’ll supply more updates on this trade possibility as I hear them. 

Cubs Still Discussing Zito, Tejada

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Just got off the phone with Dave Kaplan, host of Sports Central on WGN Radio 720 out of Chicago.  He gave me the latest on where the Cubs stand with Barry Zito. 

Billy Beane is not sure whether he’ll deal Zito now or in July.  However, the teams have had discussions recently, and the A’s like the Cubs’ farm system quite a bit.  A deal for several of the Cubs’ young arms is a distinct possibility.  The A’s aren’t looking for Matt Murton in the trade, but rather pitchers like Rich Hill, Angel Guzman, and Sean Marshall.  There’s been plenty of debate on this site about Rich Hill’s future in the Major Leagues, but it’s a fact that many teams absolutely love him and are trying to pry him away from the Cubs.  Hill has a ton of trade value.  Anyway, sit tight on the Zito idea; nothing’s going down today.

Kaplan also mentioned that the Tejada trade is "not dead" for the Cubs.  I don’t know which names are currently being tossed around, but rest assured the Cubs still have a chance at acquiring him. 

Not Buying Baez

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There’s about a dozen different trade scenarios floating around where reliever Danys Baez ends up with the Mets.  In every one, the price is steep – it typically involves surrendering Aaron Heilman.  I was curious as to whether Baez is worth all this hype.  Let’s take a look.

Vital Stats

Danys Baez is still young; he’ll be entering his age 28 season in 2006.  The Cuban righthander throws a high 90s heater.  The D-Rays signed him as a free agent from the Indians through some sort of loophole, and he’ll make $4MM in 2006. For his career, Baez has a 3.69 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 431 innings.

2005 Season

I’m guessing that some GMs or fans think Baez turned a corner in 2005 due to his 2.86 ERA.  I don’t think he did.  He was about the same or worse in hits, home runs, walks, and strikeouts as he was in 2004, when he posted a 3.57 ERA.  Plug Baez’s 2005 numbers into Bill James’s component ERA formula, and he probably should’ve had a 3.74 ERA this year, a touch better than the immortal John Wasdin.

Taking a look at Baseball Prospectus’s VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Baez was on par with Washington reliever Luis Ayala, and a bit worse than Pete Walker.  Those two guys don’t throw hard, however, so they’re not high on anyone’s offseason shopping list.

The Save Factor

Even now, in 2006, relievers’ saves totals are being overvalued.  Baez has saved 102 games in his career, and I think it’s inflating his value tremendously.  It’s tough for GMs to ignore that gaudy saves total from ’05, 41 of them to be exact.  Does saving 40 games make you an elite reliever? 

Of course not.  Bob Wickman, Jose Mesa, Danny Graves, Mike Williams, Jose Jimenez, and Antonio Alfonseca are all just marginal relievers who happen to have been granted the opportunity to finish games.  Hell, Rocky Biddle saved 34 games in 2003.  To repeat the mantra of Moneyball: plug any halfway decent reliever into the 9th inning, he’ll rack up saves and his value will be inflated.  Billy Beane has this down to a science, breeding closers and shipping them off for better players almost annually.

Back to Baez

Baez is tough to hit.  He does a reasonable job keeping home runs off the board.  He walks a lot of guys.  His strikeout rate is declining and may slip below league average in 2006.  He’ll be making around $6MM in 2007 and beyond.  He’s just not worth an Aaron Heilman, a Jae Seo, or any solid young pitcher.   

Pirates Interested In Sosa

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Emailer Joe tipped me off to a blog referencing an article from a Dominican news service. The article discusses Pittsburgh’s interest in Sammy Sosa.

Despite my pathetic grasp on the Spanish language, here’s what I’ve pieced together from Rob Rossi’s article.

With Joe Randa in tow as the Pirates’ third baseman, they’d like to make one more free agent acquisition this winter.  Now that first choice Eric Byrnes has a tentative agreement with the Diamondbacks, Sammy Sosa is the primary target for right field.  Apparently several teams desire Sosa’s services (I must’ve translated that part wrong.)

The Pirates plan to bat Randa sixth, and they’d like Sosa to hit fourth or fifth in the lineup.  Pirates’ management has the money available to sign Sosa.  As far as I can tell, Rossi thinks the Pirates will be an improved team under the management of Jim Tracy.  The reunion of Sean Casey and Joe Randa and improved defense are key components.

If there are any Spanish-speaking readers who’d like to offer corrections to my translation, I welcome it.

In case the Pirates missed it, Sosa hit a woeful .221/.295/.376 in 380 at-bats for the Orioles in 2005.  It was his worst year since 1991, when he had a wispy mustache and hit .203/.240/.335 in 316 at-bats for the White Sox.  Since I like to point out the hidden positives occasionally, Sosa did manage a .288/.370/.471 line in 104 at-bats against lefties in ’05.  Honestly I think he would’ve made an entertaining platoonmate for Jacque Jones.  Now that would’ve been humbling. 

Anyway, signing Sosa would seem to make Craig Wilson the odd man out in Pittsburgh.  The 29 year-old doesn’t deserve this fate, as he boasts a career line of .268/.363/.488 in 1593 at-bats and can play catcher, first base, left field, and right field.  Expect some team far more intelligent than the Cubs or Pirates to make a deal for Wilson this winter. 

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