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Archives for July 2006

Trading Deadline History: 2005

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I love this time of year, as trade rumors fly with reckless abandon.  But every year there’s a hell of a lot more talk than action.  Last year was one of the worst in recent memory.  Here are the highlights of July 2005:

The Mariners sent Bret Boone to the Twins on the 11th.

Two days later, the Nationals got Preston Wilson for Zach Day and change.

That same day the A’s made a couple of small deals, acquiring Jay Payton and sending off Eric Byrnes in separate trades.

The Yanks picked up Al Leiter on the 16th from Florida.

On the 18th, a year ago yesterday, the Cubs sent Jason Dubois to Cleveland for Jody Gerut.

The Royals sent Tony Graffanino to the Red Sox the next day.  The Phils picked up Tim Worrell on the 21st.

On the 23rd the Padres made their big deal to get Joe Randa for Travis Chick.  The Reds went on to swap Chick for Eddie Guardado about a year later.

Things were quiet until the 28th, when the Yanks snagged Shawn Chacon.  Exciting.

On the 30th the Padres and Rangers swapped the salaries of Phil Nevin and Chan Ho Park.  Eric Byrnes went to Baltimore, and the Red Sox snagged Jose Cruz Jr.

Deadline day: The Mariners ditched Ron Villone for a decent prospect in Yorman Bazardo.  Bill Bavasi also shipped off Randy Winn, among a few others.  The Cubs turned Gerut into Matt Lawton, whose horse steroids wouldn’t help him down the stretch.  The Braves pulled off a deal for Kyle Farnsworth, easily the best reliever to change hands. 

That pretty much sums it up.  Winn and Farnsworth were the biggest names last July.  Rumored players who didn’t get dealt: Roger Clemens, Austin Kearns, Danys Baez, A.J. Burnett, Mike Sweeney, Aubrey Huff, Alfonso Soriano, Bronson Arroyo, Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt, Billy Wagner, Jeff Weaver, and Manny Ramirez.  It seemed almost certain that Burnett would be traded last summer.

Cherish what we have here this year.  The Kearns deal was huge, and it looks like Soriano will be moved as well.  Throw in some Phillies and various starters and 2006 has far more promise than last year.

Nats’ Soriano Demands Revealed

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According to Jon Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free Press, the Nationals want three good prospects in return for Alfonso Soriano.  As much as critics panned it, you have to admit that Jim Bowden is sitting pretty after his Wilkerson/Soriano deal.

23 year-old Tigers prospect Humberto Sanchez would apparently be the centerpiece of the deal.  Sanchez dominated Double A for 11 starts this year before earning a promotion.  Sanchez has been far more hittable in Triple A, and his strikeout rate slipped quite a bit.  Still, it was an aggressive promotion.  Sanchez’s stuff is described as "a shade behind Verlander’s and Zumaya’s" when he’s at his best, according to Baseball America.  They project him as a "solid, middle of the rotation starter."

Brent Clevlen was actually ranked higher than Sanchez coming into this season. The 23 year-old rightfielder has good raw power but is hitting just .223/.303/.343 in 89 Double A games.  Jair Jurrjens of Curacao is just 20 years old.  He was promoted to Double A in June after 12 dominant starts, and his success has with a 2.78 ERA despite a 1.39 WHIP in 32 innings.

We know that the Angels are unlikely to part with their big-name prospects.  The Yankees will need to surrender Philip Hughes and more.  The Mariners are a dark horse, with players like Adam Jones, Chris Snelling, and Rafael Soriano likely to be desired.

Trades That May Impact Fantasy Baseball

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New to MLB Trade Rumors?  You may be interested in my fantasy baseball website, RotoAuthority.com.  Check out my latest post:

Trades That May Impact Fantasy Baseball

While I have your attention, I have to mention Banks of the Anacostia as a Washington Nationals blog to check out.

Last but not least, Cubs fans should definitely start reading AllCubs.com regularly.  Check out this feature called What Shall We Do Now? 

Yanks Set Sights On Roberto Hernandez

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Though relievers are always a hot deadline commodity, this year seems different.  To hear Buster Olney tell it:

"The value of middle relievers (or set-up men, or whatever you want to call them) is increasing, like oil stock."

That’s no excuse for what Wayne Krivsky did, but bashing him isn’t productive.  What is productive is cranking out the trade rumors like there’s no tomorrow.

According to Gotham Baseball, Roberto Hernandez is "the guy the Yankees would like to get."  The 41 year-old righty signed a $2.75MM contract with the Bucs this winter.  He has somehow managed a 3.10 ERA this season despite allowing more than 1.6 baserunners per inning.  Last season with the Mets was Hernandez’s one decent season since 2000.

If Dave Littlefield can spin Hernandez into anything useful, we may see more of this trend.  Non-contenders will snap up free agents like Aaron Fultz, Kent Mercker, Darren Oliver, LaTroy Hawkins, and Brian Meadows for a few million bucks and then peddle them come July.  Maybe the Cubs should consider trading Bob Howry and Scott Eyre?  If there’s another Austin Kearns to be had it’d be foolish not to.

The Gotham report also contains a rundown of various starters on the block and their chances at being dealt.

Blue Jays Trade Rumors

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There’s no doubt that the Blue Jays will need to address their pitching staff if they want to make the playoffs, as I detailed in this post.  Today I’ve got a source giving us the latest buzz coming out of Toronto.

The Jays have approximately $2-4 million in the budget to compensate their deadline acquisitions.  J.P. Ricciardi knows he’ll need more salary room than that, so look for Shea Hillenbrand ($5.8MM) or Eric Hinske ($4.3MM) to change addresses before the deadline.  Hillenbrand has an .821 OPS, pretty much average for a corner infielder.  Hinske stands at .887 thanks to a strong walk rate and a career high slugging percentage.  Hinske has faced righties 80% of the time this year, so that’s given his stats a boost.

Gregg Zaun, in calling out his teammates’ lack of leadership, may have punched his ticket out of town.  Zaun’s .908 OPS is 7th among catchers with at least 125 ABs.  He makes a million bucks this year, so sending him to a team like the Rockies could clear a little payroll.

When manager John Gibbons brought in Brandon League a couple days ago to protect Roy Halladay’s two-run lead, League was being showcased for a trade.  Two home runs later the game was tied and League’s value went down. 

Poor decision-making and several other factors may lead to Gibbons’s replacement this winter.  Gibbons’s support of George W. Bush and his team’s perceived lack of intensity are issues.  Bench coach Ernie Whitt has been mentioned as the likely replacement.

St. Paul Pioneer Press: Tigers Close To Abreu Deal

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I can’t determine who actually wrote this, but it is a published report in the St. Paul Pioneer Press.  It’s called Don’t Print That and has a smattering of rumors from various sports.

The baseball notes:

"A little birdie says the first-place Detroit Tigers are close to a deal with the Philadelphia Phillies for right fielder Bobby Abreu.  The Indians, in town to play the Twins, are talking about trading Aaron Boone to the Los Angeles Dodgers."

We’ve all heard of the Tigers’ interest in Abreu, so we’ll have to see what comes of that rumor.  As far as Aaron Boone, I can’t fathom why the Dodgers would want to actually give up a player or cash to acquire the worst third baseman in baseball.  I think Bill Mueller on crutches could outhit Boone.

Diamondbacks Trade Rumor: Jake Westbrook

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According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, the Diamondbacks are interested in acquiring Jake Westbrook.  The 28 year-old righty is 5th in baseball with a 2.93 groundball/flyball ratio.

The leader, of course, is Brandon Webb at 3.15.  Miguel Batista is also in the top 20.  Perhaps Josh Byrnes plans on assembling a groundball-heavy pitching staff to match up with Orlando Hudson and the rest of his defensively sound infield.

If so, Byrnes could also target Cory Lidle now or in the offseason.  Their reported interest in Dontrelle Willis fits into this agenda as well.  I would guess that a deal for Willis or even Westbrook would require the inclusion of one of their top ten prospects.  Westbrook was last seen in a trade rumor from January, when the Reds expressed interest.

Todd Walker To The Giants?

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According to a source of Bleed Cubbie Blue, Todd Walker will be traded this month.  The source indicated that the Giants are the likely suitor and that they would use him at first base.

First base has been a black hole for San Francisco between Lance Niekro, Mark Sweeney, and a few others.  The average NL first baseman is hitting .284/.364/.500 this year, while the Giants have gotten .251/.310/.393 out of their first basemen.  You need a Lyle Overbay just to be average while the Giants have essentially been suffering through the offensive equivalent of Yuniesky Betancourt at first.

At .290/.361/.392, Walker still makes for a pretty lousy first baseman.  However, he is a career .437 slugger so maybe that’ll pick up a bit.  The Giants are 2.5 games out in the NL West and 1.5 games out of the wild card.  The team will probably lose Jason Schmidt, Barry Bonds, and Moises Alou this offseason, so the time is now.  In it this deep, Brian Sabean needs to acquire Pat Burrell, Alfonso Soriano, or Carlos Lee if he wants to actually gain some ground in the next two months.  Adding Walker would just be an aesthetic change.

Dellucci To The Cards?

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This one is very much through the grapevine, but I thought I’d pass it along.  You can definitely trust this rumor if it truly comes from the Post-Dispatch’s Joe Strauss, though right now it’s a message board report.  (Thanks to Viva El Birdos for the tip.)  I’ll post more when I get it.

But this isn’t a crazy one; David Dellucci is just the type of underrated, underpriced pickup that Walt Jocketty should make. We know the Phillies will see fit to send off the impending free agent; the only question is where. 

I’m a huge fan of the 32 year-old outfielder.  He’s typically been used against righties only, and that worked quite well in his last full season with Texas.  In 2005 Dellucci hit .251/.369/.525 against righthanded pitching.  You’ll just have to get past Dellucci’s typically low batting average; he doesn’t make contact frequently.  However, he did show an excellent ability to draw walks when he led off last year.  He walked in almost 15% of his plate appearances, which is Brian Giles territory.

This season he’s drawn just seven walks in 115 plate appearances, but he hasn’t been a regular so I’d like to think he’s retained the ability.  Dellucci would fit nicely in left field with the Cardinals and would add less than $450,000 to the payroll.  Plus, the Cards could acquire him with players other than Reyes and Wainwright.

Globe and Mail: Jays After Peralta?

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You owe me for this.  I got an email about a sweet Jhonny Peralta trade rumor in Toronto’s Globe and Mail newspaper.  I found the article and got ready for some juicy rumormongering.  Unfortunately, they only gave me a little taste and made me register (for free).  OK, whatever.  But then, to read this particular article, I was forced to submit credit card information for a free 14 day-trial.  Can someone please remind me to cancel this before July 30th?  Thanks.

Anyway, here’s what Jeff Blair had to say on this topic:

"A contending team could do some serious one-stop shopping by calling Indians GM Mark Shapiro. There was talk in Pittsburgh that the Blue Jays may make a play for shortstop Jhonny Peralta."

The lack of detail was disappointing.  But after going through all that effort to read this I figured I should post something about Peralta and the Blue Jays. 

Peralta, 24, has definitely struggled in his second full season with the Tribe.  He played 141 games last year with a .366 OBP and .520 SLG.  He drew a walk in more than 10% of his plate appearances and put the bat on the ball 75% of the time.  Those last two marks typically play out to a .250 batting average instead of last year’s .292, so we might have seen this coming.

This year Peralta has a .330 OBP.  He’s walked 10% of the time again and has a similar 74% contact rate.  The .256 AVG/.330 OBP are no fluke.  His SLG dropping all the way to .406 was not anticipated, however. Baseball Prospectus called for him to slug .464 this year after a .520 mark last season.  Not sure how to explain the power outage.  Peralta is slugging .610 in 41 July ABs, for what that’s worth.

Mark Shapiro signed Peralta to the standard Indians arbitration buyout deal last March.  It’s for five years and $13MM; the deal finishes with a $7MM club option for 2011.  Any way you shake it, Peralta will be a bargain for years to come (as many young players are). 

The average AL shortstop is hitting .283/.339/.416 this season, very similar to Peralta’s output this year.  So he’ll be at least tolerable with the stick and can probably surpass that.  How about defense?

Peralta’s range doesn’t seem to impress the fine gentlemen of The Fielding Bible.  He’s below average on plays to his left, and even worse going to his right.  On the other hand, they describe his arm as "accurate" and note that he was the best in baseball at turning double plays in 2005.

All in all Peralta should be a 5-6 win player locked up cheap for years to come.  Should the Blue Jays make every effort to acquire him?

Probably not.  Jays’ shortstops are hitting .306/.359/.438 this year, comfortably above average. The Jays recently moved Russ Adams to second base, where his below average arm is better suited.  Right now they’ve got Aaron Hill at short.  The Blue Jays are 4.5 games out of first in the AL East.  The team leads the league in OPS and SLG, so the offense doesn’t seem to be a problem.  They’re 6th out of 14 in defensive efficiency, but Peralta wouldn’t really help that. 

It’s pitching that’s held the Blue Jays back thus far.  Both the bullpen and the starters are ranked 10th in the league in ERA.  The injury woes of Gustavo Chacin have really hurt, as he was the perfect #3 starter between A.J. Burnett and Ted Lilly.  Chacin’s sprained elbow may still need Tommy John, but otherwise he could return in August.  Given the team’s expenditures in the offseason, going the extra mile to get that starter makes sense.

It appears the Jays can only take on another $3MM in salary this year, however.  John Smoltz has been mentioned, and he is owed less than $4MM for the rest of the season.  The opportunity to win the division exists if Toronto somehow acquires a solid rental starter and a top-notch reliever in the Tom Gordon mold.  Getting both pieces seems unlikely given the team’s 25th-ranked farm system.   

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