By Tim Dierkes | at
Nothing groundbreaking here, but worth a mention. I have it from a reputable Giants source that Moises Alou fully intends to play in 2007. I think this was the general vibe anyway, but I hadn’t heard it concretely.
I wrote about Alou at length here. He’d be a great fit for several AL teams if he could be convinced to DH.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Being a Cubs fan is all about hope. Jim Hendry’s assertion yesterday that the team will enter the bidding for Japanese ace Daisuke Matsuzaka should keep the positive vibes going around the team.
It’s important to note, though, that every team has some level of interest in Matsuzaka and nearly every team will place a bid. There’s no danger in bidding too low – only upside. Still, the thought of Matsuzaka behind Carlos Zambrano makes Cubs fans salivate. Suddenly the Cubs would have the makings of a rotation – Rich Hill in the third slot, a mid-level free agent as #4, and Mark Prior et al. filling out the fifth spot. I’m letting my imagination run wild though – a more likely scenario is that Matsuzaka is a million bucks beyond the team’s budget so Hendry signs Gil Meche to a four-year deal with an out clause in case he pitches well.
With or without Matsuzaka, that #4 starter could come from Japan. Jim Hendry mentioned "two or three pitchers over there we feel can start here," one of which could be Kei Igawa.
The Cubs join the Angels, Royals, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Rangers, Orioles, Dodgers, Mariners, and Padres as the ten most interested clubs. Who else thinks the winning bid tops $30MM?
By Tim Dierkes | at
I spoke to my Mets source recently, so here’s the latest buzz around the team.
As has been reported in several places, Tom Glavine plans on returning to the Braves. I’m told a "handshake agreement" is in place. If the playoff excitement can’t change his mind, the Mets will take a look at Barry Zito and Mark Mulder. Orlando Hernandez may be re-signed and of course Steve Trachsel is a goner. Beyond that, the Mets have many in-house starting pitching options.
The Mets still like outfielder Lastings Milledge even with the problems he’s had in the clubhouse. The only way he’d be dealt is if Dontrelle Willis comes in return. Should Willis become available, the Mets will be all over it. If Milledge is traded to Florida, to team is high on David Dellucci for left field. Alfonso Soriano is not on the radar.
My source also tells me that there is a lot of consideration for Aaron Heilman to return to starting for 2007. They hope to re-sign Guillermo Mota but expect Darren Oliver to command too much money.
The Mets will probably pursue a trade for second base, as Valentin is not expected back. In-house options Ruben Gotay and Anderson Hernandez do not impress. Interest in Julio Lugo is minimal.
The team will take the payroll to the $105MM range. If Glavine leaves that could mean $20MM to play with.
By Tim Dierkes | at
In keeping with our recent Japanese theme, how about 27 year-old third baseman Akinori Iwamura? It was revealed today that Iwamura will probably be posted. He’s a fine hitter and could jump to the top of the list of available 3Bs quickly. If it’s true that Japanese baseball is a cut above American Triple A, Iwamura’s .390 OBP and .550 SLG should hold up pretty well.
I don’t know about Iwamura’s glovework, but Iwamura could probably outhit every free agent 3B outside of Aramis Ramirez. If I’m the Phillies, I jump on this and give him a three-year, $24MM deal.
By Tim Dierkes | at
The offseason hasn’t even begun, but already we’re hearing all sorts of teams are anxious to open their pocketbooks/prospect vault to acquire an impact hitter. The Angels, Cubs, Astros, and a host of others have money to burn. Let’s take a look through all of the available impact hitters, whether via trade or free agency. The players are ranked by their 2006 VORP. VORP is a good stat to use as it takes a player’s position into account when ranking offensive performance.
5. Miguel Cabrera – And next year is his age 24 season. Miggy made $472K in 2006 but will reach arbitration for the first time this winter. His salary could jump to the $7-10MM range. My feeling is that the Fish will choose to build around Cabrera, a Hall of Fame talent.
12. Miguel Tejada – The other Miggy makes $12MM in ’07, $13MM in ’08, and $13MM in ’09. He’ll be 31 next year and will never shake off the steroid rumors. His age and related possible decline are worrisome, but his durability is rare. If the Orioles sign Alfonso Soriano, will that compel them to keep Tejada or trade him?
14. Manny Ramirez – Owed $39MM over 2007-08, Manny is no bargain. But if anyone deserves that kind of cash, it’s a guy who hits .300/.400/.600 every year. He’ll be 35 next year and may be best served at DH. Still, Manny would make a huge difference for any club. The Red Sox would have a hard time replacing that offense.
19. Vernon Wells – What’s best for the Blue Jays – to try to get a couple of young studs for Wells, or to just let him play out the string for a mere $5.6MM and take the draft picks? Ricciardi could always wait until June or July to make that decision.
29. Alex Rodriguez – What more can be said about A-Rod? Recent rumors have the Cubs in the game because of A-Rod’s man-love for Lou Piniella. A new team would be on the hook for about $16 mil annually over the next four seasons, and Rodriguez is worth it. Most folks think any deal would require a slew of Major League-ready talent. There’s really no good reason for the Yankees to trade him.
30. Alfonso Soriano – Sori has been labeled the Cubs’ #1 target. They’d like to use him as a center fielder, an idea I like. We all know the price tag will be massive for whoever gets Soriano for his age 31-35 seasons. At least you don’t have to trade your best young players for him. A lot of players start taking more walks as they get older, so last year was a good sign.
32. Andruw Jones – Jones’s situation is kind of similar to Wells, but Jones isn’t underpriced at $13.5MM next year. Boston tried to trade for Jones this summer, but now Jones has veto power. One facet of his game that shouldn’t be overlooked is his durability – he’s played at least 153 games each year since 1997.
33. Gary Matthews Jr. – Matthews could be a relative bargain considering that he plays center field well and might be had on a three-year pact. Red flags: he’s 32 next year, ’06 was a career year, and he may be less than durable.
37. Ray Durham – That’s right, Ray Ray was more valuable than Barry Bonds in 2006. The Giants would like to bring him back for his age 35-36 seasons. He’s always got aches and pains but stayed pretty healthy the last two seasons. His .538 SLG this year was by far a career high.
37.5. Carlos Lee – Combining El Caballo’s VORPs from the Brewers and Rangers puts him here, 10th among available impact hitters. He’ll be 31 next year, and has been connected to the Cubs for some time. Lee is not quite the offensive beast his recent RBI totals would have you believe, but he’d be an upgrade in left for a lot of teams.
38. Barry Bonds – Not many players can get on base 45% of the time. An offseason of rest might allow Bonds to remain in the NL…or maybe that’s just his agent talking. A big plus here is the low commitment of years.
40. Ichiro Suzuki – Consider him a full-time CF for ’07, and he’d move several ranks upward on this list. Ichiro is a fine leadoff man and defender, but is he really even available?
41. Aramis Ramirez – Is Aramis lazy, or does he just kind of look that way? What do we really know about his work habits? Jim Hendry hopes to retain him, as the free agent market for 3Bs is slim otherwise. He’s still on the right side of 30.
44. Michael Young – Miscast as a shortstop, but Young has very good power for an infielder and gets on base decently. He’s also been durable. He’ll be 30 next year, and Jon Daniels could deal him to shake things up.
46. Carl Crawford – Plenty of teams would love to have him for his age 25 season, especially the Mets. The Devil Rays have an outfield surplus, so a trade for young pitching makes sense.
49. Frank Thomas – The A’s offered two years, $8MM, not all guaranteed. Frank scoffed. His resurgence was impressive, but he’ll be 39 next year.
Just missed: Mark Teixeira, Rocco Baldelli, Julio Lugo, Todd Helton, Rich Aurilia.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Tom Keegan would. I can only hope Dayton Moore disagrees. Sure, the contracts of Mike Sweeney and Angel Berroa are painful…but a team looking to win in 2008 or 2009 shouldn’t be giving their best prospect to the Yankees.
Perhaps the Royals win an extra game or two over the next few seasons with Rodriguez instead of Gordon at third. Even that is an open question. But I don’t think A-Rod would put butts in the seats any more than Gordon will.
If Moore wants to make a splash and spend some money, he should put in the top bid for Daisuke Matsuzaka and keep the cheaper Alex.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Kei Igawa is a 27 year-old southpaw with the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. He pitched 200 innings this year with a 3.11 ERA and 8.3 K/9, winning 13 games.
Igawa made a request for posting after 2005, but was denied. While Igawa hopes to be posted this winter, the Tigers’ owner seems opposed to the idea. There’s also the somewhat odd and perhaps related occurence of Igawa breaking down in tears on the mound after his final home start. If he’s not posted, Igawa will become a free agent after the 2009 season.
Reader Iwanaga Tak was kind enough to give me some info and translate this article for me. Apparently, there is a chance Igawa could be posted if Hanshin signs free agent hurler Hiroki Kuroda to replace him as their ace. American scouts haven’t shown much interest in the 31 year-old Kuroda, who is a free agent.
Speculation has Igawa’s posting fee expected to be around $10MM, a little less than Ichiro’s. If he is posted, he’d be a #3-4 type starter with a salary in the range of $3MM annually. Interested parties include the Mariners, Dodgers, Mets, Braves, and Tigers. Hanshin should make a decision about posting Igawa after the Japan Series, which starts next week.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Is it possible, in this day and age, for a player like Adam Dunn to be undervalued? I think so. As Lonnie Wheeler informs us, it’s "not working" with the big guy. Dunn turns 27 in November. He’ll make $10.5MM in 2007 and has a $13MM club option for ’08.
So what exactly isn’t working with Dunn? He’s hit 126 home runs over the past three seasons. Only David Ortiz and Albert Pujols have more. Dunn also has a .380 OBP over the last three seasons. Better than Carlos Delgado, David Wright, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Tejada, Carlos Beltran, Aramis Ramirez, or Andruw Jones.
The problems, of course, are the strikeouts and low batting averages. Sportswriters just can’t take this. You just can’t convince some people that a guy who hits .240 and whiffs 190 times is a premiere player.
Dunn slipped all the way to .229/.360/.416 after the All-Star break, and that certainly contributed to the Reds’ demise. But I don’t think 250 ABs should erase Dunn’s previous body of work. He’s pretty close to a lock for 40 HRs and a .370 OBP. You better believe that’s worth $10 mil. Baseball Prospectus says Dunn is worth about $53MM for 2007-10.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see some smart team fleece Wayne Krivsky for Dunn. You’ll notice I said smart,which probably rules out the Cubs. That’s a shame – would Bob Howry and Scott Eyre get it done? One could envision the Blue Jays, Red Sox, White Sox, A’s, Rangers, Brewers, or Diamondbacks acquiring Dunn this winter.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Been missing my 2007 Team Outlooks? The Giants are next up. This would be a good place to give a shoutout to the premiere Giants blog out there, McCovey Chronicles. I definitely read up at this fine site before attempting my ’07 writeup. Another fine one: El Lefty Malo.
Brian Sabean’s contract obligations:
C – Eliezer Alfonzo – $0.33MM
C –
1B –
2B – Kevin Frandsen – $0.33MM
SS – Omar Vizquel – $4MM
3B –
1B/OF – Mark Sweeney – $0.95MM
1B – Lance Niekro – $0.33MM
IF – Tomas de la Rosa – $0.33MM
LF –
CF – Randy Winn – $4MM
RF – Todd Linden – $0.33MM
OF – Fred Lewis – $0.33MM
OF – Jason Ellison – $0.33MM
SP – Matt Cain – $0.328MM
SP – Noah Lowry – $1.115MM
SP – Matt Morris – $9.5MM
SP – Jonathan Sanchez – $0.33MM
SP – Tim Lincecum – $0.33MM
RP – Armando Benitez – $7.6MM
RP – Tim Worrell – $2MM
RP – Vinny Chulk – $0.3485MM
RP – Brad Hennessey – $0.33MM
RP – Kevin Correia – $0.33MM
RP – Scott Munter – $0.334MM
RP – Jack Taschner – $0.33MM
RP – Brian Wilson – $0.33MM
RP – Billy Sadler – $0.33MM
Buyouts/deferred money:
SP – Jamey Wright – $0.3MM
CF – Steve Finley – $1MM
SP – Kirk Rueter – $1.28MM
RF – Moises Alou – $1.5MM
LF – Barry Bonds – $5MM
Injured players:
C – Mike Matheny – $2.25MM + $1.5MM deferred
Now, I’m not guaranteeing that this payroll estimate is spot-on. It’s an estimate based on what I could dig up. Fortunately, the deferred money comes out of a different budget and the Giants are planning for an $85MM payroll in 2007. That means they have around $38MM committed and $47MM to spend. That, my friends, is some serious cash.
The Giants will need all that money given their numerous holes. Let’s start at catcher. Mike Matheny has post-concussion syndrome, and the prognosis is not so good. That leaves Alfonzo as the starter if the season were to open today. Which would be weird given that it’s October 13th.
Alfonzo, who will be 28 next season, looked like the second coming of someone good from June 3rd to July 28th. He had a .911 OPS over those 35 games. In the next 45 games, however, Alfonzo posted a .654 OPS. Alfonzo didn’t hit at all in the high minors prior to his callup. If not for a 35 game fluke, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation. The man is not a starting catcher on a good team. There are plenty of Sabean-ish options out there; take a look at the market. In addition, Johnny Estrada is available via trade.
The Giants pretty much have nothing going on at first base. Lance Niekro’s had about a full season’s worth of ABs in the bigs and Triple A just hasn’t translated. He’ll be 28 next year. Which free agents could play first? Gary Sheffield, Sean Casey, Nomar Garciaparra, and Craig Wilson come to mind. Odds of Shea Hillenbrand returning look slim. Tradewise Sabean could chase Mark Teixeira, Todd Helton, Richie Sexson, Ty Wigginton, Tony Clark, or Ben Broussard. Sexson seems like an attainable slugger.
Do the Giants bring Ray Ray back after a career year at age 34? Perhaps if the terms of the deal are short enough. Otherwise, it’s probably Kevin Frandsen Time. Frandsen will be 25 next year and hit will in Triple A.
Third base is another problem assuming Pedro Feliz looks to cash in on his 98 ribbies. Are GMs dumb enough to give this man $5MM? This isn’t 1993 anymore. .244/.281/.428 is really bad from a corner or most other positions. Rich Aurilia played 52 games at the hot corner this season, and wouldn’t mind returning to San Fran for his age 35 season. This is a reasonable solution for the right price. Giants fans can entertain thoughts of A-Rod and A-Ram in the meantime.
On to the outfield. Might as well give Linden a shot in right; he looked pretty good this year. Winn is entrenched in center, though his .249/.296/.349 line after the break is worrisome. As for Mr. Bonds? Signs seem to be pointing toward his exit, but maybe all this talk is just posturing. If Bonds would come back for anything close to $10MM, I’d do it in a heartbeat. But I don’t sign the paychecks.
If Bonds leaves, all of this excess cash has to go somewhere. One could see Sabean entering the Soriano/Lee sweepstakes to replace him. He could hit the trade market for Adam Dunn, check out this OBP thing everyone’s been talking about. Manny Ramirez might be had, as well as Carl Crawford or Pat Burrell. I have to say, one surefire way to change the topic from Bonds would be a Manny trade.
I don’t think much needs to be done with the rotation. The Giants have some serious young studs and the requisite bearded innings eater. I don’t doubt Cain, but can Sanchez and Lincecum be above average as rookies? Can Lowry stay healthy and return to form? These kids won’t go deep into games, so Hennessey would get plenty of work. While I might leave the rotation alone, Sabean will probably pick up one guy. I can see a Gil Meche or Vicente Padilla or something. Who knows, maybe he’s saving his money for Daisuke Matsuzaka. Bonds attention diversion #2.
The bullpen isn’t looking impressive, but whatcha gonna do? Benitez and Worrell can’t be counted on, and the other guys are unproven/unimpressive. Like many teams with crappy bullpens, the Giants don’t have great free agent options. I know some would call this middle reliever free agent class deep, but it looks like a crapshoot to me. Maybe some guys like Kline or Stanton will be resigned. Closerwise you’re looking at Eric Gagne and even bigger question marks.
This offseason should be a fine test for Brian Sabean. He’s got tons of money and a host of vacancies. Will the team really get younger and healthier? Time will tell.
By Tim Dierkes | at
I finally organized all of my free agent starting pitcher writeups into one link. Check it out! I also updated some of the more outdated stuff (I wrote the first one in August). The only decent starter missing from this list is Daisuke Matsuzaka, as far as I know.
At some point, I’ll create some handy links on the sidebar where you can access free agents by position. I’ll try to keep those updated with interested teams and who’s available.
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