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Soriano Rejects 5/$70MM Offer From Nats

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Here’s a link to a Sportsline story quoting Listin Diaro, the oldest daily newspaper of the Dominican Republic.  The news: Alfonso Soriano has rejected a five-year, $70MM offer from the Nationals.  Here’s the original article for those fluent in Spanish.  It appears that the Listin Diaro article is quoting a Mexican radio station that interviewed assistant GM Jose Rijo.

So the initial bar on Soriano has been set: he’ll require more than $14MM annually.  That’s not going to end well.  In fact, I’m not sure he’ll be worth it in year 1. 

Soriano’s rejection of the offer will at least stop the Nats from compounding their own error.  Jim Bowden failed to trade Soriano at the deadline, but signing him for five years wouldn’t have righted that wrong. 

UPDATE: So much for everything I just said in this post – Rijo and Nats president Stan Kasten just denied this report.

 

2007 MLB Free Agents: Moises Alou

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I’ve recommending that about ten teams should look into signing Moises Alou this winter.  I think all of the praise for him warrants a closer look.

Alou will enter his age 40 season in 2007.  All sorts of injuries limited him to just 221 games with the Giants for the life of his two-year, $13.25MM contract.  Despite making only 378 PAs this year, Alou was the 9th best RF in the game according to VORP.  He played left field in ’05, and his offensive output ranked 6th at the position.

The Fielding Bible described Alou’s work in left as adequate, as his speed, range, and arm do not impress.  I can only imagine what they’d say about his work in right field, a tougher position.

It seems clear that Alou would benefit from designated hitting.  It’d be his first time with an AL team.  Alou’s .571 slugging percentage in 2006 was best among all free agent hitters with 300 PAs, Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano included.  The beauty of Alou is that his deal would probably be for just one year.  Low risk, high reward, just like Frank Thomas was entering this season.

Almost any AL team could make use of Alou at DH.  The only teams I’d rule out for sure are the White Sox, Devil Rays, and Royals.  The latter two because they’re not a few pieces away from contending, and the Sox because Thome can’t move to first.  It follows that the Red Sox and Indians are unlikely suitors, as Hafner and Ortiz are pretty well entrenched at DH.  I’d still leave those two in the mix as Ortiz and Hafner could still be used at first.

If we take those five teams out we have the Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, Tigers, Twins, Angels, A’s, Mariners, and Rangers.  I’ve yet to find whether Alou has made any indication on whether he intends to play in 2007; maybe some Giants fans can help out. 

On a mildly related note, here is Matt Cain’s face on a tortilla.

Interview: Bob Bavasi of JapanBall.com

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Recently Bob Bavasi, owner of the fine website JapanBall.com, was kind enough to answer some questions for MLBTradeRumors.com.  Bob tells me that he recently got back from his JapanBall.com baseball tour, where he encountered a variety of scouts, writers, and team personnel.  His answers are in bold.

What kind of posting fee do you see for Matsuzaka?  Ichiro cost $13MM; could Matsuzaka require $20MM?

Still one year away from Japanese free agency, RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka, 26, of the Seibu Lions (just outside of Tokyo), is considered the hottest prospect by the MLB scouts.  The Lions will allow Matsuzaka to post, a process wherein MLB teams give the Lions sealed bids, the highest bidder getting negotiating rights to the pitcher…the Lions getting a bundle of dough.

What could he go for?  I’ve heard numbers from $17 to $28 million for the posting fee to the Lions. Then the MLB club must, of course, sign the player.

It seems like as many as ten teams could be after him.  What kind of contract would you expect him to sign once an MLB team has his rights?

His agent is Scott Boras, and none of his players have been known to sign on the cheap.  But certainly the club will be looking for a long contract what with the money they’ll have just spent to simply acquire the rights to sign Matsuzaka.  I’ve heard numbers as high as $70 million for the contract, if you can believe that.

So far, I’ve seen reports on the following teams interested in Matsuzaka: Angels, Royals, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Rangers, Orioles, Dodgers, and Mariners.  Based on Japanese media have any other MLB teams scouted him?

All the clubs have scouted him, but it really comes down to the wherewithal to place the big bet.  Also, with regard to your list, I wouldn’t count San Diego out.

Do you expect any other players to be posted this winter?

Yakult Swallows (Tokyo) third baseman Akinori Iwamura has been talked about as a candidate to be posted this winter as are RHP Kaz Saito of the Softbank Hawks (Fukuoka) and LHP Kei Igawa with the Hanshin Tigers (Osaka).

Which Japanese free agents could end up on Major League rosters next spring?

RHP Hiroki Kuroda of the Carp will be a free agent, not subject to posting, and you hear his name bandied about in this regard.

If you were building a team, which Japanese player would you choose with the #1 pick?

I like the pitcher we started this conversation about, but, if you are giving me a free pick, I might mention that I chatted with Wayne Graczyk, baseball columnist for The Japan Times and editor of the Japan Baseball Media Guide, who said that the consensus of the scouts he’d visited with who’d recently come through Japan said that Kosuke Fukudome, outfielder for the Chunichi Dragons was the best all-around Japanese player.

Could you assess the likelihood of Kei Igawa being posted?  I have read that the team’s owner does not plan on posting him.

While he’s been discussed I’m not certain if he’ll be posted.  If you’re a Japanese baseball team owner, there is generally no point is posting a player until he’s very close to free agency.  Igawa has signed with the Hanshin Tigers through the 2008 season, so I tend to think they’d keep him for one more year before doing the posting.

Do you have any insight as to how the Japanese perceive the posting system?

For the teams it’s terrific.  You can get something for your player rather
than a whole bunch of nothing when he becomes a free agent.

Do fans enjoy it when players leave to play MLB?

The posting process lends some excitement for fans who always wrestle with being disappointed in losing the player, but being happy that another Japanese can compete in MLB.

We do our JapanBall.com Baseball Experience Tour each September.  The year Ichiro signed with Seattle I saw Mariners logos and Ichiro photos just as soon as I left the airplane upon landing in Tokyo.  He was everywhere.  On billboards, on giant TV screens on the sides of buildings, in subway car advertisements.

Japan baseball attendance started to wane as folks began watching MLB games on TV.  Now things are a little more settled down.

Japanese baseball has reacted by making their ballparks much more fan-friendly and teams are starting to play more aggressive, exciting baseball.  They’ve just imported their fourth American field manager to help in that regard.  The Central League will adopt a playoff formula similar to that which is a hit in the Pacific League.  And fans are beginning to respond at the turnstiles.

Thanks for your time, Bob!

Torii Hunter’s Option Exercised

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As expected, the Twins exercised Torii Hunter’s $12MM 2007 option today.  Next year will be his age 31 season.  Baseball Prospectus projects his value at just $3.55MM for 2007.  On this one I will have to disagree with the numbers; I would exercise the option with little hesitation.

The Twins still have roughly $13-15MM to spend this winter; here are the team needs.

With Hunter off the market, the likely free agent center fielder options are:

Jim Edmonds
Gary Matthews Jr.
Juan Pierre
Dave Roberts
Kenny Lofton
Steve Finley
Darin Erstad

Daisuke Matsuzaka To Be Posted By Seibu

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It’s official: the Seibu Lions will post ace starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka.  That means a Major League team will bid on the exclusive rights to negotiate a contract with him. 

Matsuzaka figures to beat out even Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt as the best free agent pitcher available.  At least eight teams have already scouted him Matsuzaka.

Based on this report (scroll down), the Angels will also be players for Matsuzaka.

2007 Texas Rangers

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Had some requests for a 2007 team outlook on the Rangers. 

Jon Daniels’s contract obligations:

C – Gerald Laird – $0.332MM
C –
1B – Mark Teixeira – $9MM
2B – Ian Kinsler – $0.327MM
SS – Michael Young – $3.5MM
3B – Hank Blalock – $4.75MM
IF – Joaquin Arias – $0.327MM
IF – Drew Meyer – $0.33MM
LF – Brad Wilkerson – $3.9MM
CF –
RF – Nelson Cruz – $0.33MM
OF – Victor Diaz – $0.335MM
OF – Freddy Guzman – $0.33MM
DH – Jason Botts – $0.328MM

SP – Kevin Millwood – $7.5MM
SP – Robinson Tejeda – $0.33MM
SP – Kameron Loe – $0.34877MM
SP – John Koronka – $0.329MM
SP – Edinson Volquez – $0.329MM
SP – John Rheinecker – $0.33MM
SP – John Danks – $0.33MM
SP – Thomas Diamond – $0.33MM
SP – Daniel Haigwood – $0.33MM
SP – Eric Hurley – $0.33MM

RP – Akinori Otsuka – $1.75MM
RP – Ron Mahay – $1MM
RP – Joaquin Benoit – $0.775MM
RP – Frank Francisco – $0.3315MM
RP – C.J. Wilson – $0.331MM
RP – Scott Feldman – $0.329MM
RP – Rick Bauer – $0.33MM
RP – Wes Littleton – $0.33MM
RP – Josh Rupe – $0.328MM

Buyouts and departed players
C – Miguel Ojeda – $0.025MM
3B – Alex Rodriguez – $7MM

If the 2007 payroll is to include the money for A-Rod and raises for Otsuka and others, the team has between $40MM and $45MM committed.  They entered 2006 with a $68MM payroll.  This is a team with tons of free agents; the Rangers will look very different in 2007.  Forget all this manager talk though: let’s get down to the important stuff.

At catcher: do you bring Rod Barajas back, or just let Laird start and find a backup for him?  Laird looked lost at the plate as a full-timer in September, but otherwise hit quite well for his position.  I think you let Barajas go and use Laird as the starter.  This team has needs, and the need for a catcher isn’t at the top of the list.  That said, perhaps a flexible solution like Mike Piazza would help.  Piazza could catch 70 or 80 games and spend the rest of the time at DH.

The Rangers are set with Mark Teixeira, who proved his first half an anomaly with a .291/.394/.604 line after the break.  The second half surge means Tex’s trade value should remain huge.  As a Scott Boras client, he makes quite a bit of money for someone with his service time.  Here’s an idea: trade Teixeira to the Pirates for pitching.  The Paul Maholm/Mike Gonzalez proposal seems a little weak; substitute Ian Snell for Maholm and you might have something. 

The Pirates wouldn’t be the only team coveting Teixeira entering his age 27 season.  How about the Orioles, Tigers, Astros, Dodgers, or Giants?  If Tex really does hit the market, you have to figure some top shelf young talent would be offered from some of these clubs.    

The middle infield seems locked in, though Young could be the trade bait instead of Teixeira.  More likely, the team tries to find something decent for Hank Blalock and re-signs Mark DeRosa to hold down 3B.  Blalock slugged just .401 this season, a career worst.  That included an awful second half, but his shoulder was bothering him and he had surgery this earlier this month.  Blalock will be 26 next year and has two years before free agency; he’s marketable.  He might have to finish his rehab first though.

If you think the infield is interesting, consider the outfield.  It’s just a mess.  The team wants to retain Gary Matthews Jr. as the center fielder, but this could be the 32 year-old’s last chance to test the market.  Brad Wilkerson bombed during his first year as a Ranger, but had shoulder surgery in August.  He could be cut loose, or he could come back and get $4MM+ in arbitration.  I assume he’d play left field in that case.  Wilkerson is a passable CF as well.  The Rangers may want to see what happens with him in ’07 as an attempt to redeem the Soriano trade a bit. 

Nelson Cruz may be too old for prospect status, but he’s a fair gamble in right field.  He didn’t hit much with the Rangers but posted a .906 OPS in Triple A this year.  He probably deserves a shot, especially if Wilkerson and Matthews are retained.

The DH spot is wide open, with Botts the frontrunner if no one is acquired.  Botts broke a bone in his hand in August.  Before that, he wasn’t hitting enough to maintain a role as the regular DH.  He’s similar to Cruz in that he’s figured out Triple A and has a good chance to become a useful regular for a few years.

Otherwise, Daniels could go a million ways with this vacancy.  He could go after the best free agent hitter, Barry Bonds.  He could offer Carlos Lee a fat five-year deal to make him a Ranger fixture (he’d play left in ’07, but DH soon enough).  He could chase Frank Thomas, Nomar Garciaparra, Dmitri Young, Moises Alou, David Dellucci, Cliff Floyd, or Gary Sheffield.  Many of those options could bolster an already strong offense.

The area that needs the most work, of course, is the pitching rotation.  Millwood and Tejeda are locked in, leaving three vacancies. One of those three spots could go to young talent like Danks, Hurley, Diamond, or Volquez.  Even so, Daniels needs to get two starters to have a real rotation. 

One of the Big Three – Zito, Schmidt, or Matsuzaka – has to end up a Ranger.  The team has scouted Matsuzaka, and he’s by far the best choice.  The local options both have their flaws; Matsuzaka’s only downside is that he’s a Major League rookie.  I’d take that risk compared to Zito’s mediocrity or Schmidt’s age.  If Daniels can get Matsuzaka signed, he can throw down some additional cash for the likes of Randy Wolf, Gil Meche, Mark Mulder, or Ted Lilly.  Or he could hold on to Adam Eaton or Vicente Padilla.  Padilla had a solid if not spectacular year, and his acquisition stands in great contrast to Eaton’s (Chris Young would look awfully nice slotted as the #2 starter).

The bullpen actually did OK this year, so those guys will get their raises and the group should remain mostly intact.  There’s been some Kerry Wood chatter, but Wood has said he wants to remain a Cub. 

After big seasons by Alfonso Soriano and Chris Young, some of the shine came off kid GM Jon Daniels.  To be fair, the Soriano deal only looks bad in hindsight.  On the positive side, he did acquire Tejeda, Padilla, Cruz, and Otsuka in 2006.  This offseason, Daniels will have his own manager, free cash, and the chance to create the Texas Rangers squad he wants.

Let The A-Rod Speculation Begin

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In most towns, when the third baseman hits .290/.392/.523, no one considers it "sucking."  Among 3Bs, only Miguel Cabrera, Garrett Atkins, Chipper Jones, and David Wright outhit A-Rod.  His OBP was third best for the position.

Everyone’s favorite whipping boy enters his age 31 season in 2007.  The Rangers are covering a large part of his contract, so he’s owed $16MM annually through 2010.  While it’s still huge, Rodriguez at four years, $64MM is a reasonable commitment for a superstar.  Even the fairly conservative PECOTA projection system from Baseball Prospectus says he’ll be worth over $66MM over that time period.

Rodriguez waived his NTC to come to New York; would he waive it again this winter to escape the scrutiny?  And can he still hold his own at shortstop?  We hear the Angels mentioned as a suitor.  I’m sure the White Sox wouldn’t mind him at short.  The Phillies are in dire need of a third baseman who can hit.  The Dodgers are short at third as well.  The Astros and even the Pirates have money to spend.  Basically, any team with the money and requisite young talent can find a way to get Rodriguez into the lineup.  Cashman probably wouldn’t send him to the Red Sox or Blue Jays, however.

Get ready for a winter of blithering sportswriters calling for a Rodriguez trade.  On a Yankee team with little concern for payroll, subtracting a reasonably priced superstar makes no sense, objectively.  We’ll see how the team responds to the media pressure.

2007 Cleveland Indians

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The Tribe is next up in our 2007 team outlooks.

Mark Shapiro’s contract obligations:

C – Victor Martinez – $3MM
C – Kelly Shoppach – $0.327MM
1B – Ryan Garko – $0.33MM
2B –
SS – Jhonny Peralta – $0.75MM
3B – Andy Marte – $0.33MM
3B – Kevin Kouzmanoff – $0.33MM
IF – Hector Luna – $0.34MM
IF – Joe Inglett – $0.33MM
LF – Jason Michaels – $1.75MM
CF – Grady Sizemore – $0.75MM
RF – Casey Blake – $3.75MM
OF – Shin-Soo Choo – $0.33MM
OF – Franklin Gutierrez – $0.33MM
DH – Travis Hafner – $3.75MM

SP – C.C. Sabathia – $8.75MM
SP – Paul Byrd – $7MM
SP – Jake Westbrook – $5.6MM
SP – Cliff Lee – $2.75MM
SP – Jeremy Sowers – $0.33MM
SP – Jeremy Guthrie – $0.625MM

RP – Rafael Betancourt – $0.3653MM
RP – Matt Miller – $0.3374MM
RP – Fernando Cabrera – $0.3308MM
RP – Fausto Carmona – $0.33MM
RP – Jason Davis – $0.33MM
RP – Tom Mastny – $0.33MM
RP – Brian Slocum – $0.33MM

I have the payroll at less than $50MM at this point, including raises.  The Indians entered 2006 at $56MM.  All we know about ’07 is to expect a significant payroll increase.  That’s gotta mean at least 10%, so they should go past $60MM.  $70MM would not be surprising at all, and that buys more than just a closer.

The Indians will go with Garko and Marte at the corners, at least unless some obviously better option presents itself.  The average AL 1B hit .280/.352/.467 and the average AL 3B hit .269/.338/.442.  Garko and Marte can approach this level next year.  Given how far above average Hafner, Sizemore, and Martinez are for their positions, it still makes for a dangerous offense.

Shapiro will definitely acquire a second baseman, with Ron Belliard, Adam Kennedy, Mark DeRosa, Ray Durham, and Mark Loretta the top free agent options.  Shapiro hopes to improve the infield defense as well as find a player to push Peralta a bit. The perfect solution: Craig Counsell.  Counsell is one of the best defensive 2Bs in the game and plays a decent shortstop.

To continue with Jason Michaels as the everyday LF would be a certain concession of below average offense.  Choo and Gutierrez could push him.  Given all the purported free cash, I’m surprised the Indians haven’t made noise about acquiring a decent-hitting veteran LF.  The coolest answer would be Barry Bonds, but Frank Catalanotto, David Dellucci, and Moises Alou would all represent improvement.  If Pronk could play 1B for 30 games in 2007, that’d go a long way toward resting other fragile players.

The rotation is set, with Carmona probably acting as the sixth man.  Carmona finished strong in three starts, and there’s been speculation of trading Byrd.  Byrd isn’t exactly coveted, so hopefully that’d be a situation where the money saved goes toward a marquee signing.

The Indians won’t look internally for a closer.  Free agent options are slim though: Joe Borowski, Danys Baez, Dustin Hermanson, Octavio Dotel, Keith Foulke, Miguel Batista, David Weathers, and Eric Gagne have experience.  It might make sense to try to pry Brad Lidge away from the Astros.  Mike Gonzalez would be another fine trade option.  What’s Ugueth Urbina up to these days?  Oh, right.  When are they going to hold that trial, anyway?

The Indians are a team with $10-20MM to spend and no good way to spend it.  Given that he’s got a fine squad already, perhaps Shapiro will just add his second baseman and closer and save some money for a midseason deal.

Olney: A’s Offer Thomas Two Years

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So the A’s second offer for Frank Thomas is two years, $8MM, not all guaranteed.  Which begs the question, is the Big Hurt still in it for the money?  Because he could command much more on the open market.

As I mentioned in Oakland’s team outlook, there’s a decent chance Beane lets Thomas walk.  It all depends on whether he’ll take a pay cut to stay.

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