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Archives for October 2006

Gotham Baseball: Mets and Yankees Rumors

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Check out the latest from Mark Healey of Gotham Baseball.  A summary is below.

Healey’s Cubs source indicates Mark Prior and Alex Rodriguez could be the main pieces of a trade.  That’d be a tough sell for Brian Cashman so I’m sure the Cubs would have to spice up such an offer.  Healey’s source mentions Mark DeRosa as a possible A-Rod replacement in New York.

A couple of names associated with the Mets include Ray Durham and Mark Mulder.  Durham is a new one for me, though the Mulder info jives with what I heard last week.  I also have strong indications from another source that a return to Oakland is "very likely" for Mulder, however.  It’ll come down to the dollars: if Mulder takes injury/incentive type money, he goes to Oakland.  Otherwise, the Mets should be the top suitor.

Healey and I are also in agreement on the Mets’ minimal interest in Julio Lugo and their intent to hang onto Lastings Milledge.

Finally, Healey’s sources call for a Tom Glavine/Greg Maddux reunion in Atlanta.  I had heard the same about Glavine, though this weekend’s New York Post mentioned that Glavine doesn’t want to give the Braves a huge discount and Atlanta’s payroll is pretty tight as long as it includes Andruw Jones.

The Hot Stove hasn’t officially begun, but it’s going to be another exciting winter.

UPDATE: Today’s AJC indicates that the Braves would hesitate to pay Glavine even $10MM. 

Marlins Looking For A Center Fielder

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I’m still amazed at how good the Marlins were in 2006 and how bright their future looks.  I’d like to see other teams try the "blow it all up" approach, because the Fish are a cool team.

Latest word from Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post is that the Marlins will look externally to fill their center field hole.  The combination of Reggie Abercrombie, Alfredo Amezaga, Cody Ross, and Eric Reed simply did not work in 2006.

Capozzi names Chris Duffy, Willy Taveras, and Matt Kemp as targets according to his sources.  He adds Rocco Baldelli and Elijah Dukes as other possibilities.

My guy would be Dukes.  He has speed, range, and a great arm.  He got on base over 40% of the time at Triple A this year.  He showed 20 HR potential too.  What’s not to like?

Oh, yeah.  Five suspensions this year alone and problems with half the team, coaching staff included.  Clearly Dukes needs a fresh start, and he could be a steal if Fredi Gonzalez could calm him down.

All of these options have their flaws: Duffy will be 27 next year, Taveras hits like Juan Pierre, Kemp’s defense is in question, and Baldelli won’t come cheap.

2007 MLB Free Agent Links

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With the offseason around the corner, it’s time to check out all the available free agents.  93% of you should be interested, while the other 7% can worry about winning the World Series in 2006 first.

I’ve written quite a bit about this winter’s free agent class.  To see position breakdowns, check out the new 2007 MLB Free Agents section of the sidebar.  Just below the Recent Posts section.  I’ll try to keep the free agent lists up-to-date as players enter or exit the market.

2007 MLB Free Agents: Designated Hitters

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Updated 12/23/06

There are a few players I haven’t covered in my free agent position breakdowns yet – those who are purely designated hitters.

2007 League Averages
AL: .264/.349/.469

In other words, your DH should hit something like Ryan Zimmerman did this year at the least.  I’m going to leave out DH candidates like Barry Bonds and Mike Piazza, as I’ve covered them elsewhere.

Carl Everett – The Mariners made the laughable decision to sign Everett for essentially $4MM to be their DH in 2006.  He was terrible, posting a .657 OPS in 92 games before being waived in August.  Everett may retire.

Dmitri Young – Before the season began, Young lost some weight and hoped to spend time in the corner outfield positions and maybe even third base.  He strained his quad in spring and was on the DL in April.  He came back in May, but the quad was still hurting him. 

Then his misdemeanor domestic violence charge came down on May 18th.  Young had choked his 21 year-old girlfriend.  He went back on the DL a few days later.  He missed his court date in June and a warrant was issued.  He eventually turned himself in and spent some time in AA.  Both Alcoholics Anonymous and Double A. Young came off the DL in late July.  Despite hitting well, Young was released in September and later described as a clubhouse cancer.  I wonder what his World Series share will be.  He’s taken the rest of the year off and will come cheap for his age 33 season in ’07.

The Sad Progression of Aramis Ramirez

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It’s been interesting to watch the Aramis Ramirez Situation develop.  Here’s what I’ve seen.

Phase 1: Ramirez signs four year, $42MM contract with an option for ’09.  On the surface, it looks like security for both parties.  In reality, it’s more of a two year deal.  Jim Hendry built in the chance for Ramirez to void the contract after 2006 if Ramirez thinks he can get more than the non-guaranteed three years/$33.5MM remaining. Media makes light of the out clause and Ramirez indicates that there’s little chance he’d leave Chicago.  Realistic fans realize that the contract gives the Cubs zero leverage.

Phase 2: In the first year of the contract, Ramirez plays just 123 games because of a quad injury.  He’s quite productive in that time, but no one is publicly worried about the out clause.

Phase 3: In the middle of the 2006 season, the idea of the out clause surfaces again.  Chicago media strangely contends that there’s little chance Ramirez walks away from three years, $33.5MM, non-guaranteed over his age 29-31 seasons with a weak free agent class at his position and tons of teams with money to burn looking for 3Bs.  Ramirez continues to spout the party line about staying in Chicago.

Phase 4: Idea of re-negotiation surfaces, Ramirez starts deferring to his agent when asked about possible free agency.  Media starts planting the seed that Ramirez is lazy and Scott Moore could be a Major League 3B in 2007.  Despite the very serious chance of Ramirez departing and leaving the Cubs with nothing, Hendry does not trade him at the deadline.

Phase 5: Exercising out clause becomes a lock, but Hendry speaks of hammering out a deal with Ramirez within a few weeks of season’s end. 

Phase 6: Though Hendry knew he’d need a manager all along, he contends that the manager search is the reason Ramirez doesn’t have a deal done after a few weeks. 

Phase 7: A-Rod balloon is floated, giving Cubs fans false hope that the team could sustain the loss of Ramirez.  Ramirez’s agent defends the player not running out ground balls and mentions that he might be the "hottest free agent."

Phase 8 (predicted): Agent starts saying that while Ramirez hopes to remain a Cub, his client has earned the right to test the free agent market.

Phase 9 (predicted): Ramirez signs with Angels or Dodgers.  Chicago Tribune starts trying to make Scott Moore seem like a capable replacement.  Cubs fans, having been duped last year that Ronny Cedeno was a suitable alternative to Rafael Furcal, don’t buy it. I hope.

Phase 10 (predicted): Cubs spend a lot of money suboptimally and/or trade Rich Hill/Donald Veal/Sean Gallagher and play .500 ball at best in 2007.

Mets To Deal Aaron Heilman?

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With Aaron Heilman being named a goat in some New York papers, the idea has arisen that the Mets should look to trade him.  Seems like shaky logic – if Heilman hadn’t allowed Yadier Molina to go deep, would that change everyone’s opinion?

Whether or not it’d be a "sell low" move by Omar Minaya, Heilman’s going to have some major value on the trade market.  He’s got a 3.37 ERA over the last two seasons (195 innings, mostly in relief).  Next year will be Heilman’s age 28 season.

The tantalizing thing about the 6-5 righty is that he seems capable of starting in the bigs.  Heilman hasn’t been a full-time starter since ’04, and he struggled in the role.  But it’s the plus changeup that seems to leave the possibility open.  Heilman will throw it behind in the count, and if he can work in his slider he might be able to go six solid innings.

Many teams would have interest in Heilman.  While the Mets have holes at LF and 2B, the consensus seems that they’d look to acquire the scarcest commodity, a starter.  We hear a lot about Heilman as part of a Dontrelle Willis package.  How about two other guys I keep talking about – Jason Jennings and Jake Westbrook?  Both reach free agency after 2007.  Doesn’t seem that Heilman alone would be enough, but it would be a good start.  If the Mets are without Pedro and Glavine to start 2007, they’re going to need two good replacements.

2007 Los Angeles Dodgers

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I received several requests for the Dodgers to be covered in the next 2007 Team Outlook.

Ned Colletti’s contract obligations:

C – Russell Martin – $0.33MM
C –
1B – James Loney – $0.33MM
2B – Jeff Kent – $9MM
SS – Rafael Furcal – $13MM
3B – Wilson Betemit – $0.345MM/Andy LaRoche – $0.33MM
IF – Olmedo Saenz – $1MM
LF – Andre Ethier – $0.33MM
CF – Jason Repko – $0.338MM/Matt Kemp – $0.33MM
RF – J.D. Drew – $11MM
OF – Marlon Anderson – $0.925MM
OF – Jayson Werth – $0.355MM

SP – Derek Lowe – $9.5MM
SP – Brad Penny – $7.5MM
SP – Hong-Chih Kuo – $0.3275MM
SP – Chad Billingsley – $0.33MM
SP – Mark Hendrickson – $2MM

RP – Brett Tomko – $4.1MM
RP – Jonathan Broxton – $0.33MM
RP – Elmer Dessens – $1.7MM (paid by KC)
RP – Yhency Brazoban – $0.345MM
RP – Takashi Saito – $0.33MM
RP – Greg Miller – $0.33MM
RP –

Buyouts:
RP – Eric Gagne – $1MM
OF – Jose Cruz Jr. – $0.3MM

Nontender candidates:
C – Toby Hall – $2.5MM

Injured players:
3B – Bill Mueller – $4.5MM (hopes for an experimental knee treatment to allow him to play)

Ballpark estimate: $70MM tied up.  This team came into 2006 with a $98MM payroll, so money will be spent again.

I put down Hall as a nontender candidate as most teams don’t pay a backup catcher that much money.  He did hit surprisingly well in his very limited Dodger sample.  Perhaps they’ll keep him and make a trade?

Try Loney at first, or resign Nomar?  It’s worth noting that Garciaparra’s big comeback season was exactly league average for first base.  Plus he only played three-quarters of the team’s games.  I think Loney will be worse than that, but not terribly so.  If you choose the kid, you’ve got to upgrade in a few of the other open spots.

One of those open spots is 3B.  Bill Mueller looks like a no go for 2007, so we’re looking at some combination of Betemit and young Andy LaRoche.  The Dodgers hope LaRoche will be fully healed from labrum surgery of the throwing shoulder by spring training. 

They probably don’t want to block LaRoche for four years, which takes A-Rod out of the picture.  If you use that logic, though, Aramis Ramirez becomes unlikely as well.  Perhaps Colletti would sign Ramirez and worry about LaRoche later.  In that case he’ll be competing with the Angels and several other clubs for the best free agent 3B.  Yet another route would be Japanese third baseman Akinori Iwamura, said to be admired by the Padres. 

The Dodgers have similar situations in left and center field: kids who might be capable but could have growing pains.  What to make of Ethier’s second half (.277/.337/.429)?  Fine for a young kid but probably not the starting left fielder on a big budget team.  (Matt Murton, ahem).  Kemp’s CF defense has been panned, and Repko/Werth don’t look like starters. 

Should Colletti deal Scott Elbert or one of his other talented prospects, perhaps the Dodgers could acquire Vernon Wells or Andruw Jones for center field.  Otherwise Jim Edmonds seems like a reasonable signing.

With the quasi-openings at 1B, 3B, LF, and CF, Colletti will probably bring in several veteran free agents as he did for 2006.  I can’t see the Dodgers going with young players in more than two of those four spots.

For the starting rotation, we know that Colletti would like to bring Maddux back for a full season. Such a move would probably push Hendrickson to the pen.  A related scenario: trade the frustrating Penny to fill a position, and then go after Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito.  How about Penny to Houston for Morgan Ensberg?  To the Rangers for Hank Blalock?  To Cincy for Adam Dunn?  Tell me your ideas in the comments. 

Should a starter struggle or get hurt, the Dodgers will have Hendrickson and Tomko at the ready to fill in.  And if Elbert harnesses his control he could join the rotation by summertime.

The bullpen looks solid, and the Dodgers don’t need the frustration of Eric Gagne.  For a big-time discount, maybe, but they’ll be fine without him assuming Saito stays and Brazoban is healthy.  Tomko is a candidate to be dealt, as he’ll probably be unhappy as a middle reliever.

With $30MM to spend, Colletti might be able to acquire Edmonds, Schmidt, and someone like Rich Aurilia to play some third and first.  If youngsters like Kemp, LaRoche, and Loney prove worthy they can get plenty of ABs too for this fragile team.

2007 San Diego Padres

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Alright, time for another one of these Team Outlooks.

Kevin Towers’s contract obligations:

C – Josh Bard – $0.3534MM
C – Rob Bowen – $0.33MM
1B – Adrian Gonzalez – $0.3275MM
2B – Josh Barfield – $0.327MM
SS – Khalil Greene – $0.405MM
3B –
IF – Russell Branyan – $1.25MM
LF –
CF – Mike Cameron – $7MM
RF – Brian Giles – $9MM
OF – Terrmel Sledge – $0.3475MM
OF – Ben Johnson – $0.3275MM

SP – Jake Peavy – $4.75MM
SP – Chris Young – $0.6MM
SP –
SP – Clay Hensley – $0.329MM
SP – Mike Thompson – $0.33MM
SP – Cesar Carrillo – $0.33MM

RP – Trevor Hoffman – $6.5MM
RP – Scott Linebrink – $1.75MM
RP – Cla Meredith – $0.33MM
RP – Jon Adkins – $0.33MM
RP – Brian Sweeney – $0.33MM
RP – Scott Cassidy – $0.33MM
RP – Justin Hampson – $0.33MM
RP – Mike Adams – $0.335MM

Buyouts
C – Mike Piazza – $0.75MM
1B – Ryan Klesko – $0.5MM

It seems that the Padres have a mere $36MM tied up after entering 2006 with a $70MM payroll.

Behind the plate, the Padres got enormous production from the Piazza/Bard combo.  Bard’s previous body of work may not be starting catcher-worthy, but it should be worth a shot.  Of course, if Piazza wants to play for one year and $3-5MM, you can’t turn that down.  He was a steal at $1.25MM in ’06.

Powered by a huge June-July stretch, Adrian Gonzalez finally justified his first overall selection in the 2000 draft.  Kevin Towers made out like a bandit in the Adam Eaton deal, netting Gonzalez and Chris Young.  This isn’t hindsight, either – the deal was a clear win for San Diego the day it was made.

With Barfield at second, it’s important to remember that he’ll be entering his age 24 season.  He’s solid, he’s cheap, and he should keep getting better.

The Pads didn’t get any offense from the shortstop position – a .699 OPS in total.  If Greene’s finger heals up this winter, he should get one more chance to establish himself as a healthy, productive player.

Another glaring hole is, of course, third base.  Reasonable solution: Japanese player Akinori Iwamura.  Like Kenji Johjima last winter, Iwamura looks like a bargain from where I sit.  You can forget silly A-Rod fantasies, but there are other decent options.  Adrian Beltre has been on the radar for a while now, and a swap for Mike Lowell is feasible.  Of course, that means giving up talent and decent money for league averageish production at the position.  Like I said – Iwamura.

The Pads are also in need of a decent backup infielder.  Tony Graffanino, Craig Counsell, and others are floating around.

Left field: Dave Roberts did a decent job as the team’s leadoff hitter this year.  But given the free cash, I think the Padres should inject this power position with, well, power.  Here I have 16 impact hitters listed who could be acquired.  Setting the sights a little bit lower, there’s Moises Alou, David Dellucci, Luke Scott, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Frank Catalanotto, and Luis Gonzalez.  Adding one of these guys over Roberts would sacrifice some defense, however.

In the rotation, there’s a need for at least one guy – two if you don’t want to give a spot to Thompson or Carrillo.  Carrillo, one of the team’s better prospects, is currently rehabbing a sore elbow. 

The Padres seem to be the favorites for Barry Zito, but don’t expect their usual hometown discount.  I think this would be a good signing.  Right right, he’d be overpaid.  But the Padres have the need and the money.  Sometimes you have to overpay.  Peavy/Young/Zito would be a fearsome front three, and Hensley is an above average #4.

Really can’t complain about the bullpen.  Linebrink might get relatively big bucks as a free agent after 2007, but right now it’s a solid group.

If I was Kevin Towers, I’d probably sign Zito, Iwamura, a backup infielder, and a mid-tier left fielder.  If I had money left over and Piazza was the right price I’d bring him back.

Justice: Astros To Sign Carlos Lee?

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On his SportsJustice blog, Houston Chronicle writer Richard Justice seems pretty adamant that the Astros are going to sign slugger Carlos Lee.

My Astros team outlook has the team with roughly $30MM to spend.  If Luke Scott can play right field, I wouldn’t disagree with a Lee signing.  This will leave Tim Purpura with about $15MM to spread amongst two starting pitchers and perhaps a catcher.  I could see Pettitte for $10MM and Woody Williams for $5MMish.  Trade Willy Taveras for something useful, and I think the Astros will be in decent shape for 2007. 

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