By Tim Dierkes | at
Updated 1-2-06
Here we have info on the free agent third basemen market.
2006 League Averages for Third Basemen
AL: .269/.338/.442 (.780 OPS)
NL: .282/.354/.472 (.826 OPS)
Sorry folks – there are no free agent starting third basemen on the market anymore.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Updated 12-07-06
Sorry folks, there’s nothing left at short.
The demand for Miguel Tejada, Michael Young, and Omar Vizquel should be strong if someone needs to make a splashy deal.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Updated 1-9-07
Let’s assess the 2B free agent market next offseason for those teams in need. These are the guys who I consider starters at the position.
Ronnie Belliard – Should be worth about $4 mil at age 32 in 2007. Consistent if not spectacular. The dreads are a plus.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Updated 1-2-07
Today we take a look at the first basemen available as free agents after the 2006 season. These are players who I think are actually capable of starting regularly at first base. Aubrey Huff and Darin Erstad – I don’t think they’ll end up at 1B next year.
Phil Nevin – He made $10MM this season. The Rangers traded him to the Cubs and Nevin responded with an .832 OPS as Derrek Lee’s replacement. Things didn’t go so well after the Cubs traded him to Minnesota, however. A long shot to start for anyone next year.
Craig Wilson – Wilson hit .251/.314/.446 in his contract year. He made just $3.5MM and will be only 29 next year. Wilson can play catcher, first base, and the outfield corners. He didn’t do a thing for the Yankees and could be had cheaply. The Orioles are having discussions with Wilson’s agent.
A very weak crop. Wilson could be the #1 pick because of his age, price, skills, and versatility. Teams with holes may try to trade market, which could contain Mark Teixeira, Todd Helton, and Richie Sexson.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Updated 12-23-06
Looking for a new starting backstop after the 2006 season? These are your free agent options.
Javy Lopez – Lopez caught just 38 games in 2006, so who knows how he’ll be behind the plate at age 36. He’ll have to take a huge pay cut from this year’s $8.5MM. The Rockies could sign him despite the presence of Yorvit Torrealba and Chris Iannetta on the roster.
By Tim Dierkes | at
It’s kind of funny to see Jay Mariotti jumping on the Greg Maddux bandwagon after two starts. The secret to Maddux’s quick start is not fitness. In reality, he’s the exact same Professor he has been for the last three years.
Maddux’s H/9 rate fluctuates from season to season. I don’t think he has a lot of control over this. Sure, in his 1992-98 insane peak he certainly allowed fewer hits for a reason. But he gave up tons of hits in ’99 and it looks like a fluke. He seems to have established a new general range since 2003. That range is to allow a little more than a hit per inning, which is fine if you’re walking 30 guys a year. The H/9 was 9.56 last year, his highest since ’99. If regression to the mean brings that down just a little bit and he continues allowing HRs at a league average pace, he’s a sub-4 ERA innings eater. Nothing has changed.
You can just look at the ERAs and see 3.96, 4.02, 4.24 and think well surely he’s due for a 4.40 or 4.50 this year. It’s not that simple, as Maddux could easily post a 3.80 despite being the exact same pitcher he was in ’03.
He’s going to throw a good 220-230 innings, mixing in the occasional rough start here and there. Maddux will have a disastrous start about 10% of the time and a dominant one about half the time (according to Ron Shandler’s PQS pitching logs). Otherwise he keeps you in ballgames, and is easily worth his $9MM salary.
Once he’s a free agent this offseason, he’ll probably shop around for a one-year, $7MM type deal. This would be an excellent signing for any team looking for reliability and depth over upside. Really, it makes sense for the Cubs to retain him. Too much sense, almost. Watch him go to the Padres or somewhere after no one shows interest.
If they don’t plan on re-signing him, or even if they do, the Cubs could look to trade Maddux in July. But even if Wood and Prior are going full steam at that point it’s a needless gamble. Unless a major injury creates a need, Maddux should stay put.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Recently I got to thinking about Eric Gagne. 30 years old. An unstoppable relief ace from 2002-04 (a 1.79 ERA and 13.3 K/9 over 247 innings. Imagine if he did that in one season as a starter! Roto Immortality.) Tommy John surgery in 1997 plus another cleanup type surgery last summer. A $10MM salary for 2006 with a $12MM option for 2007.
With Scott Boras as his agent, Gagne may elect to void that ’07 option. Or the Dodgers may simply choose not to exercise it. The Dodgers are one probably the only team in baseball with two established "closers" on the roster. No, Jose Mesa and Braden Looper don’t count. Danys Baez is an excellent backup that will allow the Dodgers to limit Gagne’s innings this season. But should a decent setup man emerge from Yhency Brazoban, Franquelis Osoria, and Jonathan Broxton, the Dodgers may just send Gagne packing this summer.
So which contending teams have questionable closers?
Red Sox. I have to assume Epstein doesn’t see Papelbon as a long-term reliever/closer candidate. He’ll probably be in the rotation by July, and Keith Foulke may give out by then. The pen has some depth, but lacks a relief ace. Many folks see Craig Hansen closing out games by year’s end, and I don’t disagree. Still, if he stumbles a bit in his first Major League season, the Sox could take a crack at Gagne.
White Sox. Bobby Jenks and Dustin Hermanson are wild cards right now. With only Neal Cotts and Cliff Politte as dependable options, Kenny Williams could go after the cream of the crop in Gagne. His trading chips will probably have to come from his Major League roster this time.
Rangers. Should Francisco Cordero happen to go down this year, I’m not sure if Texas will be content to give the ball to Akinori Otsuka, Joaquin Benoit, or Frank Francisco in the 9th inning.
Braves. This really wouldn’t be their style, though Gagne would really solidify the relief corps.
Phillies. What’s Plan B if Tom Gordon’s elbow gives out? The Phils need Ryan Madson in the rotation and probably don’t trust Arthur Rhodes.
This is all just speculation, but watch the rumors fly this summer if Baez and Gagne are both pitching well and an injury to a starter or position player creates a need for the Dodgers.
Thanks to The Closer Watch for the current bullpen depth charts.
By Tim Dierkes | at
After reading Joe Strauss’s article today in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, I got to thinking about impending free agent Mark Mulder. The standout quote:
"Mulder is certain to seek a package with higher average annual value than the five-year, $55 million contract A.J. Burnett received last December from the Toronto Blue Jays."
I don’t doubt that he’ll want and expect this kind of money, based on his career totals of 98 victories, a 3.87 ERA, and a 1.30 WHIP before age 29. The problem with his contract (and most free agent contracts) is that he’ll be paid largely on what he’s done and not what he will do. Burnett at least has upside.
I’m not here to bash Mulder; I know he’s still a solid innings guy and that he’s become one of the more extreme groundball pitchers in the game as his strikeout rate has declined. He’s a decent five-win pitcher, akin to the current version of Brad Radke.
I don’t know why teams continue to overpay for this kind of production, but they do. If you look at Mulder’s projected Marginal Value Over Replacement Player, his next five-year contract could have an annual average close to his value for the entire length of the contract. In other words, he might make $12MM in 2007 despite being worth less than $16MM over the entire period of 2007-2011.
It’s understood that that’s the way free agency works and you have to pay a premium to get decent starting pitching. But Mulder’s next contract looks like it will be one of the most egregious examples of a free agent mistake. If the market overvalues starters, shouldn’t teams find other ways to acquire them or else just build a dominant offense at the expense of pitching?
Guys like Brad Radke, Mike Mussina, Kerry Wood, Andy Pettitte, and Jason Schmidt should also hit the market after the 2006 season. The Schmidt Derby should be a wild one, especially if he returns to form in 2006 as I’ve projected.
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