Poll: What Can The Astros Expect From Carlos Correa This Year?

It wasn’t too long ago that Carlos Correa was a consensus pick as one of the best shortstops in baseball. He entered the 2023 season as a career 130 wRC+ hitter who appeared to be on something close to a Hall of Fame trajectory. A lot has changed for him since the 2022-23 offseason, however. Now that he’s been reunited with the Astros, he figures to be one of the most important players to the organization as they look to get back into the playoffs. What can they actually expect from the three-time All-Star?

While the first several years of Correa’s career saw him post that aforementioned 130 wRC+ with strong enough defense at shortstop to average around four fWAR per year despite occasional struggles to stay on the field, that’s changed since he signed his second contract in Minnesota. From 2023 to ’25, Correa hit just .266/.338/.428 (113 wRC+). That would still be star level production for an elite defensive shortstop who plays 150-plus games per year, but that’s not who Correa is anymore. He took a step back to the point of being more of an average to above-average shortstop defensively (+1 Outs Above Average at shortstop from 2022 to ’25) and moved to third base upon returning to Houston last summer.

Staying on the field has become increasingly challenging as well. Plantar fasciitis in both feet has cost Correa significant time over the past few years, and he’s taken additional trips to the injured list thanks to oblique issues and a concussion. All that left him to appear in just 365 games over the last three years. If he continues averaging just over 120 games a season as a third baseman and doesn’t see a big uptick in his defensive value, it will be hard for him to maintain star-level production without delivering more consistent offense. The 154 wRC+ he posted during his 86-game 2024 season would be more than enough. The 106 wRC+ he posted in 144 games last year wouldn’t cut it.

It should be noted that with the Twins paying $10MM of Correa’s salary in each of the next three years, Correa doesn’t necessarily need to produce like a star to be a valuable asset. Even a wRC+ in the 115 range, similar to what he’s posted over the last three years, would likely be enough to mostly justify the $62MM the Astros are set to pay him over the next three seasons. Still, an Astros club that is waiting for players like Cam Smith and Brice Matthews to break out while watching veterans like Jose Altuve and Christian Walker start to decline will need everything it can get from Correa as they look to make their way back into the postseason.

The early signs this year are positive. Through seven games, Correa has identical 10.0% strikeout and walk rates with a .296/.367/.444 (133 wRC+) slash line. A sample size that small is mostly meaningless, but if he can produce those sorts of numbers across 400+ plate appearances he’ll be one of Houston’s biggest assets this year. His underlying numbers from recent seasons don’t quite offer that level of optimism, but do indicate that he’s been better than the 2025 season might otherwise indicate.

Correa’s xwOBA over the last three seasons was .339, which is similar to the .338 he posted in that same stat last year. Players who posted a wOBA in that range last year include Wyatt Langford, Gunnar Henderson, and Spencer Torkelson. Looking at fellow third basemen, Manny Machado posted a .341 while Matt Chapman posted a .336. That would be good company for Correa to keep, especially if his defensive metrics at third base tick up from where they were last year (+2 OAA) with additional exposure to the position. There’s reason to believe he can get there; Correa slashed .290/.355/.430 with a wRC+ of 122 and a wOBA of .344 in 51 games after being traded back to Houston.

How do MLBTR readers think Correa will fare in his first full year as an Astro since 2021? Will he post middling numbers like he did last year, return to the form he showed earlier in his career, or fall somewhere in the middle? Have your say in the poll below: