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Archives for January 2007

Johan Santana Has Full NTC For ’07

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Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press writes that Johan Santana’s 2006 Cy Young triggered a full no-trade clause in his contract for 2007.  The clause will stick for 2008 if he finishes in the top three of the voting for that award.  Otherwise, he can choose 12 teams he can’t be traded to in ’08.

There’s a lot of speculation going around concerning Santana.  Patrick Reusse opined that Santana will become baseball’s first $200MM starter and the Twins have no chance.  Furthermore, a lot of folks are trying to fit him for Yankee pinstripes already. 

Before the 2005 season, the Twins locked Santana in at four years and $40MM.  That he was willing to let the Twins buy out a few years of free agency may indicate that Santana will take a discount to remain in Minnesota.  Not a ridiculous discount, but still.  $20 million a year would be a bargain for Santana – I’m sure he could top that in free agency.

I imagine there’s a good chance that even if they don’t intend to re-sign him, the Twins will just hold on to Santana until his contract runs out.  The NTC is a big obstacle and it may prevent some team from offering three top-flight prospects.  That’s probably what it would take.  The Yankees may not have three guys that would get this deal done.  The Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Angels, Marlins, or Devil Rays might be able to pull it off if they were so inclined.

What’s Joe Nathan Worth?

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The St. Paul Pioneer Press writes that Joe Nathan wants to finish his career as a Twin and would like to discuss an extension this summer.  The Twins have him signed for 2007-08 at a well below-market $11.25MM.

Since no top tier closers were on the free agent market this winter, we didn’t directly see the inflation for them.  However, consider the AAVs for these relievers, who are closer candidates or closed recently:

Danys Baez – $6.33MM
Eric Gagne – $6MM + $5MM in incentives
Octavio Dotel – $5MM + $2.25MM in incentives
Keith Foulke – $5MM + 2MM in incentives
Justin Speier – $4.5MM
Joe Borowski – $4.25MM + $1.5MM in incentives

This is a motley crew.  Baez posted a K rate below 6 per nine and got three years.  Gagne has pitched 15 innings over the past two seasons.  Dotel, 25 innings. Foulke is shaky to say the least. Speier is reliable but it took four years.  Borowski is pitching with a messed up shoulder.

Now consider Nathan.  He’ll probably sign for a discount, but imagine if he went to the highest bidder.  He’s had four straight years of relief dominance, no matter how you measure it (saves, VORP, ERA, whatever).  He’s pitched his last three seasons in the AL.  He hasn’t allowed a baserunner per inning since ’03.  And he’s somehow getting better each year.

The biggest guaranteed deal for a closer was Billy Wagner’s four-year, $43MM contract last year.  Wagner was 35 in the first year of the deal, while Nathan will be 32 next season.  If Nathan were to hit the open market after 2007, could he get a five-year, $65MM deal?  Even more from the Yankees?

Teams Showing Interest In Erstad

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Darin Erstad has had his ankle surgically repaired, and feels that he could play center field regularly.  According to the L.A. Times, six teams have expressed interest.  Among them: the A’s, Orioles, Rockies, and Mariners.

Erstad earned $8.5MM in ’06 in the last year of his contract.  There’s a chance the 32 year-old could still hit like a league average center fielder (a .760 OPS or so).  He’ll have to prove that he’s still fast and mobile enough to play credible defense.  If he wants a starting job, he could find center field vacancies on the White Sox, Marlins, Nationals, Brewers, or Cubs.

Johnson Agrees To Extension

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According to the Associated Press, Randy Johnson agreed to a two-year, $26MM deal with the Diamondbacks.  This complex, drawn out trade will probably be finalized Tuesday.

Josh Byrnes has come up with a couple of solid southpaws in Johnson and Doug Davis to bolster his 2007-08 rotations.  Coupled with the acquisitions of Chris Young, Orlando Hudson, Alberto Callaspo and Juan Cruz, I’d say Byrnes is doing quite well.  Additionally, the D’Backs signed Brandon Webb to a long-term deal a year ago, before he won the Cy Young.  They have Webb at a good price through 2010; he would’ve reached free agency after 2008.

The Johnson acquisition will create a fierce spring training competition for Arizona’s fifth starter job this year.  Juan Cruz, Dana Eveland, Edgar Gonzalez, Enrique Gonzalez, and Dustin Nippert will fight for the vacancy.  That group of fifth starter candidates could outpitch some teams’ rotations (ahem, Washington).

Excel Master Found

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I’m happy to announce that I have chosen a guy named Greg Chandler to help with my fantasy baseball Excel project.  Greg will be helping me re-design the RotoAuthority Fantasy Baseball Guide with the goal of having the product hit the market in a week or so.  I’ve already started posting position rankings on RotoAuthority.com as a sneak peek.  The Guide will cost just $9.99.

Many sincere thanks to all who wrote in with interest in the project.  I believe there were upwards of 60 inquiries from qualified Excel gurus.  Just sifting through all the talent was a project in itself.

Comeback Attempt For Palmeiro

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As I mentioned in the Jim Parque post, I am fascinated by comeback attempts.  42 year-old Rafael Palmeiro is the latest candidate.  The Boston Globe indicates that he doesn’t feel he’s finished and wants to return.  Speaking of ’05 steroid busts, look who could be the Marlins’ CF in ’07.  Maybe Sammy, Raffy, and Sanchez will all miraculously return to the bigs.

Palmeiro only played seven games following his 2005 steroid suspension, and he was 2 for 26.  A sprained ankle may have been a mitigating factor.  Would it be worth the negative attention for some team to carry Palmeiro as a bench player, a year removed from the game?  Probably not.

Pirates, Braves Still Talking Swap

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The Mike Gonzalez for Adam LaRoche trade rumor lives on.  However, as we’ve read at Bucco Blog numerous times, John Schuerholz has always wanted to add Paul Maholm or Jose Castillo to the deal.

Bucco Blog recently sat down with an NL East scout to discuss LaRoche and whether he’d be a good fit in Pittsburgh.  Take a look.

Rockies Close On Javy Lopez

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Javy Lopez is expected to sign with the Rockies on Monday, according to the Denver Post.  Lopez will be in the catching mix with Chris Iannetta and Yorvit Torrealba.

I hate to see young Iannetta blocked, but Lopez only caught 38 games last year and 28 the year before.  Torrealba, meanwhile, needs to prove his health after ending ’06 on the 60-day DL for a strained shoulder.  He’s played in the Venezuelan Winter League recently.

Nationals Make Offers To Starters

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The Washington rotation currently consists of John Patterson and a lot of question marks.  Actually Patterson is a question mark himself right now.  That’s why Jim Bowden has made offers to five starters.

The Nats would like to retain Tony Armas Jr. and/or Ramon Ortiz.  Additionally they’re after Steve Trachsel, Jorge Sosa, and Jerome Williams.  Bill Ladson reports that the offers range from a minor league deal (Williams probably) to $3MM.

Nice to see Jerome getting some love – I know he was lousy last year, but he does have the ability to post a 4 ERA in the NL. 

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