2008 MLB Free Agents: Kyle Lohse
I’m sure we’ll revisit this after the season. But on a slow trade rumor day, let’s take a closer look at a free agent pitcher who could cash in after this season: Kyle Lohse. It sounds absurd to say that about a guy who posted a 5.83 ERA last year, but Lohse might be primed for a three year, $24MM contract.
Lohse was never ranked among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects. But as a 20 year-old pitching well in High A ball, he was enough to snag the Cubs a closer from the Twins in Rick Aguilera. The need had surfaced for Chicago after Rod Beck came down with bone spurs in his elbow.
So Lohse became a Twin, and initially struggled to master Double A. It didn’t matter, as he was very young for his levels and reached the Majors in ’01 as a 22 year-old. He didn’t fare well in his 16 starts, though his command wasn’t bad.
Lohse won the Twins’ fifth starter job out of camp in ’02, beating out Johan Santana among others. He had a fine year, winning 13 games with a 4.23 ERA. Lohse even tossed five scoreless postseason relief innings.
2003 was more of the same – 33 starts, 14 wins, and a strong 1.27 WHIP. His propensity to allow home runs kept his ERA in the mid 4s, but it was still a good year. A five win season, according to Baseball Prospectus.
He added a sinker in 2004, but it didn’t help his home run rate. That worsened; his strikeout rate continued to drop, his control wasn’t great, and he allowed tons of hits. Lohse made 34 starts but posted a 5.34 ERA.
That winter he reached arbitration for the first time. No agreement could be reached, so a hearing was conducted. Lohse was the winner and snagged $2.4MM despite coming off his worst season.
His first possible serious injury surfaced in ’05, as he felt shoulder stiffness in April. The MRI came up clean and it turned out to be a non-issue. He pitched tolerably in the first half, generating talks of a swap to the Blue Jays for Shea Hillenbrand.
The trade didn’t happen. In September of that year, Lohse badmouthed Ron Gardenhire in the media and also punched several clubhouse doors, injuring his finger temporarily. The two sides made amends, but the finger injury lingered a bit.
That winter, Lohse again went to arbitration with the Twins and beat them, winning $3.95MM. It wasn’t a bad year – a 4.18 ERA in 30 starts.
In the spring of 2006, Lohse scrapped his curve to go with only his fastball, changeup, and slider. Somehow, he earned a rotation spot over Francisco Liriano out of camp. The new approach didn’t work – Lohse was awful in April and earned a trip to Triple A. He was angered by the demotion, but pitched well in four starts. The Mets, Red Sox, and other clubs expressed interest. He returned to the Twins in June and worked as a reliever, posting a 4.44 ERA out of the pen in 26 innings.
Twin-loving Reds GM Wayne Krivsky traded for Lohse at the deadline, giving up prospect Zach Ward. So far in 14 National League starts, Lohse has found the league very much to his liking. His strikeout rate is way up, and his command looks great. Is it a first-time-around-the-league mirage? We’ll need more data to be sure, but many pitchers have rejuvenated their careers in the NL.
As far as I can tell, Lohse has a decent repertoire. He is said to throw harder than Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang, and his manager raves about his changeup. Reds pitching coach Dick Pole loves his stuff. He finally avoided arbitration as a Red, as seems to enjoy it there. Lohse considers the American League "Arena Baseball," so he probably won’t be going back.
Lohse doesn’t turn 29 until October, making him one of the younger free agent pitchers out there. He also has a fine health history. Lohse’s next contract should fall somewhere between Jason Marquis‘s 3/21 and Gil Meche‘s 5/55. It’s not inconceivable that Lohse could get $8-10MM annually and three years. Given his age, a team might even have to add a fourth year to win his services.
Rosenthal Tidbits
Ken Rosenthal has recent columns up here and here, as always they are excellent reads. Ken always manages to get some intriguing quotes from scouts and provide his own insight.
- Rosenthal makes a strong case for Roger Clemens joining the Red Sox. He describes a Catch-22 – a team’s need for Clemens increases as its pitching struggles, but Clemens doesn’t want to join a struggling team. If he really wants to play for the team most likely to win a World Series, the Astros might be out.
- Although Eric Gagne looked strong in his inning against Seattle, it’d take a lot to pry away Akinori Otsuka from Texas. Otsuka is signed through 2009. Rosenthal thinks the Rangers would only deal him for a young center fielder. Not too many teams have young center fielders to spare. The Devil Rays, maybe, but they don’t need Otsuka right now.
- Rosenthal doesn’t see the sense in a Brad Lidge to the D-Rays type of deal, and expects the Astros to try to restore the reliever’s confidence somehow.
- One of Rosenthal’s scout friends contends that Chad Cordero would not hold up in the American League. Fantasy leaguers, take note.
- The two April trades that seemed likely to go down, involving Jose Capellan and Byung-Hyun Kim, seem unlikely currently. I’m surprised about Capellan…maybe Doug Melvin’s demands are too high.
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Felix Pie Debuts
Interesting development in Chicago, as Cubs top prospect Felix Pie has gotten the call and is leading off against the Padres today. Word is that Angel Guzman was sent down, so Alfonso Soriano will not need to hit the DL.
Here’s a quick look at Pie from a fantasy perspective. It seems like a brief taste, a chance to give Pie a week of starts in the bigs. Once Soriano is healthy, the Cubs will have a crowded outfield with Matt Murton, Cliff Floyd, and Jacque Jones, Daryle Ward, and Pie also in the picture. I doubt the Cubs want to use Pie as a fifth outfielder, so he’ll probably return to Triple A unless a Jones trade is in the offing. That kind of deal seems unlikely for April.
April Trading
So far this month, a couple of minor trades have occurred: the Phillies acquired Francisco Rosario, while the Mariners got Jason Ellison. I thought it would be interesting to look back a couple of years to see just how common April trades are.
April 2006
- 4/1: Rangers traded David Dellucci to Phillies for Robinson Tejeda. Given the Tejeda is now an important piece of the Rangers’ rotation, this deal is notable. Jon Daniels doesn’t have a great trading history but he did OK here.
- 4/7: Indians traded Brandon Phillips to the Reds for a PTBNL or cash. One of Wayne Krivsky’s best moves.
- 4/28: Devil Rays acquired Tyler Walker from the Giants for Carlos Hines. Walker’s never been particularly good, but he did have a stint as the Rays’ closer last year before succumbing to elbow surgery.
April 2005
- 4/9: Rockies acquired reliever Jose Acevedo from the Reds for prospect Allan Simpson. Acevedo was awful for the Rox, but he did pitch 64 innings in ’05.
That’s all we had in ’05. Needless to say teams were not wheeling and dealing in April.
April 2004
- 4/3: Cards acquired Roger Cedeno from the Mets for Chris Widger and Wilson Delgado. Cedeno got into 95 games with the Cards that year as an extra outfielder.
- 4/3: Mariners acquired infielder Jolbert Cabrera from the Dodgers for prospects. Cabrera got 359 ABs as the Ms’ utility man in ’04 and hit .270/.312/.384. He and Scott Spiezio were probably a big reason they signed Adrian Beltre.
- 4/3: Rangers acquired pitcher Chris Young from the Expos for Einar Diaz, Justin Echols, and cash. You can give John Hart props for that one.
- 4/3: Dodgers acquired Antonio Perez from the Devil Rays for outfielder Jason Romano. Perez didn’t play for L.A. until 2005 but certainly had his uses.
- 4/3: Padres acquired reliever Blaine Neal for reliever Ben Howard. You may not have heard of these guys, but both tossed 35+ innings out of their teams’ pens in 2004. Neal was better.
- 4/4: Dodgers acquired Milton Bradley from the Indians for Franklin Gutierrez and a PTBNL. Bradley had a decent year (and his healthiest) as the Dodgers’ CF. Gutierrez is still trying to master Triple A but he’s had a few cups of coffee.
- 4/8: Rockies acquired starter Zach McClellan and infielder Chris Fallon for reliever Justin Huisman. Huisman pitched 25 awful innings for the Royals that year, and hasn’t surfaced in the Majors since. Meanwhile, McClellan was converted to relief and recently joined the Rockies’ big league pen.
- 4/13: Twins acquired Terry Mulholland from the Mariners for cash considerations. Mulholland, always one of my favorites, pitched 123 not-so-great innings as the Twins’ swingman that year.
- 4/17: Astros acquired Chad Harville from the A’s for Kirk Saarloos. Both players are still relevant and mildly useful, with Harville landing in Tampa Bay this season and Saarloos joining the Reds.
- 4/25: Indians acquired reliever Rick White from the Dodgers for outfielder Trey Dyson. White is not particularly good but continues to find work. Might be his fluke 3.72 ERA for the Bucs in ’05.
- 4/25: Indians acquired Russell Branyan from the Braves for a PTBNL. It was to be Branyan’s second stint with the Tribe, but he never played for the big club. He later helped the Brewers that year and in ’05, racking up all kinds of walks, home runs, and strikeouts.
It appears that GMs have seriously changed their April philosophy over only a few years. The decline in April trading seems more than random fluctuation. Teams were more willing to tinker and send prospects around in ’04; now they’re more cautious and try to fill holes internally first.
Rockies To Waive Brian Lawrence
The Rockies signed 31 year-old starter Brian Lawrence back in January to a one-year deal with a club option. Lawrence had rotator cuff surgery about a year ago, but was expected to slot into Colorado’s rotation. However, he’ll be placed on waivers today, according to the Denver Post. He was destroyed in three Triple A rehab starts, so the decision makes sense.
There was plenty of interest in Lawrence this offseason, as he came cheap and seemed to offer possible league average pitching. The Padres, Mariners, Rockies, Pirates, Giants, and Diamondbacks all expressed interest. Lawrence’s preference is to pitch in the NL West. He’s going to have to show something in Triple A before some team starts giving him starts, however.
Mets News and Notes
- The Mets haven’t played baseball since Saturday and the process have not only reshuffled the rotation going forward, but it’s also allowed Rick Peterson four additional bullpen sessions with missing link Oliver Perez. His grasp of the strike zone is in direct correlation with the Mets grasp on the division. The move will mean the Mets go with Perez and rookie Mike Pelfrey against the Braves at Shea over the weekend.
- One of David Wright‘s brothers, Stephen Wright, is a student at Virginia Tech University and had a class in the ill fated building that afternoon. There was a brief scare for the Mets’ third baseman as it was hard to track his brother down amidst the panic.
- Curt Schilling thinks Felix Hernandez has better tools then Dwight Gooden circa 1984.
- Sports Illustrated’s baseball blog "Fungoes", takes a pessimistic look around the NL East.
By Nik Kolidas
MLBTR Library
There’s a new addition to the sidebar today: the MLBTradeRumors Library. Scroll down to the bottom of the lefthand sidebar to see all of the baseball books I own and endorse.
Reds Extend Ryan Freel
According to MLB.com, the Reds have signed Ryan Freel to a contract extension through 2009. The deal covers his arbitration years, so he’ll still become a free agent in 2010 as originally scheduled. He’ll make $7MM for 2008-09, a fine price for Cincinnati.
Freel failed to break through with the Blue Jays and Devil Rays, and both clubs chose not to re-sign him. The Reds finally gave him a shot and he’s shown great speed with a strong walk rate.
It’s tough to put a price on a player like Freel, a useful guy who plays 2B, 3B, and all outfield spots. Plenty of teams have a player like this but most don’t get on base like Freel (.367 career OBP). At his press conference today, Freel talked about how he’s happy to play infield to give Josh Hamilton more ABs. He described Hamilton as a "game-changing guy" and the most talented on the team.
Hafner Extension Will Wait
While Indians GM Mark Shapiro thinks he still might be able to retain Travis Hafner and C.C. Sabathia despite the Jake Westbrook extension, he will hold off on contract negotiations with Hafner until after the season. Hafner and Sabathia are set to reach free agency after the 2008 season.
Hafner and the Indians have some work done that could eventually form the basis of an extension. Shapiro’s comment on retaining his two big free agents makes sense: he’ll do it if the money is there. A big factor will be whether the Tribe reaches the playoffs this year. Postseason revenue could help Shapiro sign both players before the ’08 season begins. Baseball Prospectus says the Indians have a 61% chance of making the playoffs. They see 93-94 wins for Cleveland.
It’s funny how quickly things change – David Ortiz‘s contract, signed one year ago, would seem to be a reasonable benchmark for Hafner. Papi got four years and $52MM with a $12.5MM club option for 2011. At this point Hafner has to be thinking at least $14MM annually and five years.