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Archives for April 2007

Recently At The MLBTR Reader Blog

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In case you haven’t tried it yet, the MLBTR Reader Blog is a great place to express your opinions on baseball topics not mentioned on MLBTR.  It’s also a chance to show off your writing chops and promote your own blog or writing.

Dan Lewis of Armchair GM has a challenge.  The premise: using the last 25 years of team history, put together the best possible team using only one player per year and each player only once.  You can then use simulators to see how good your lineup really is.  Take a look at his Mets roster and Davis21wylie’s Red Sox roster.

BallinJones has a discussion going on Akinori Iwamura – is he the real deal?

DunkinDonuts has an intelligent analysis of Boston’s current Coco Crisp predicament.

Hop over and vote up your favorite postings and comments, and write a few of your own!

Also, if you’re into fantasy baseball, check out some of my most recent posts at RotoAuthority:

Adam Lind Gets His Chance

Thoughts on Kyle Lohse

B.J. Ryan Hits the DL

Santana Wants 8 Years?

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I am not sure about this rumor, but thought I’d put it out here for debate.

Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune writes:

"Before contract talks broke off between Johan Santana and the Twins, baseball’s best pitcher is believed to have had put the team on notice that he wants a contract at least as long as Barry Zito’s eight-year deal with San Francisco."

Rogers does not specifically name a source on that statement, and follows it with Santana’s recent quote about hoping to remain a Twin for life.  I don’t know if the Zito reference is Rogers’ interpretation of Santana’s Minneapolis Tribune quote, or a new piece of information.  I have a feeling Santana might be amenable to a six or seven year contract from the Twins.

As far as the idea of trading Torii Hunter or Santana before they reach free agency, no-trade clauses could complicate matters.  Santana has a full no-trade if he places top three in this year’s Cy Young voting, which seems likely based on the past three seasons.  Hunter can block deals to the Red Sox, Cubs, Tigers, Devil Rays, and Blue Jays this year.  Boston is the one team I could see having a spot for him this summer out of that group.   

Marlins Interested In Jose Capellan

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Could we be adding yet another closer candidate to the Marlins?  According to the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, they’ve got interest in 26 year-old right-handed reliever Jose Capellan.  Capellan has thrown 6.1 scoreless innings in Triple A so far.

Past suitors: the Rockies, Giants, Devil Rays, and Nationals.  It’s known that the Nats would like to convert Capellan back to starting; maybe the Fish would do the same.  Back in ’05 Capellan started 12 games in Triple A, but suffered from control problems.

Unfortunately, the Brewers are asking for too much according to Juan C. Rodriguez’s source.  They want "something big" for him. 

Latest On Lidge

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Today brings four new articles mentioning ousted Houston closer Brad Lidge.  MLBTradeRumors reads them so you don’t have to.

Ken Davidoff of Newsday simply drops one sentence on the topic, writing that Lidge is not available for the moment.  Well, that’s a start.

Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger names Lidge one of his "Five Closers Who Had A Tough Week."  I really think Ugueth Urbina belongs at #6.  Graziano mentions that the Devil Rays have been one of the most aggressive teams calling on Tim Purpura for Lidge, but that the Astros have shown no eagerness to trade him.

Speaking of those Devil Rays, Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times is well-connected to the club as the beat writer.  He says Lidge trade chatter is ongoing, but that if the Astros do decide to trade him they might avoid the Rays.  Why’s that?  Former Astros pitching coach Jim Hickey might be able to fix him, and the Astros don’t want to be shown up in a trade.  In essence, they want Lidge to continue to fail if they trade him. 

Side note: I couldn’t figure out a good destination for Jorge Cantu, ultimately leaning toward the Mets.  But Topkin says the Blue Jays and Twins have come up in rumors in the media.  I didn’t catch those articles, but maybe he is referring to reporter chatter.

Scott Lauber of the Wilmington News Journal again connects the Phillies to Lidge.  I’m starting to think he’s got more than speculation there.  Lauber feels that Lidge needs a change of scenery, but obviously the Astros are reluctant to sell low.

Ichiro To Explore Free Agency?

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According to a source of Ken Davidoff of Newsday, Ichiro Suzuki will explore free agency this winter.  He will be "selective," which seems to rule out lousy non-Mariner clubs.  The source said that Ichiro would’ve signed with the Ms last winter had they made a solid offer.  They’ve yet to do so.

As Davidoff mentions, Ichiro is one of the Big Three center fielders who may be available after the season.  The other two are Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones.  How do they compare?

Their ages for the 2008 season: Jones will be 31, Hunter 32, and Ichiro 34.  Looking at offense, any team would clearly prefer Jones.  He should remain a force into the forseeable future, posting .350 OBPs and .500+ SLGs.  While more reliant on batting average than walks, Ichiro can match that OBP.  Of course, he won’t slug much over .400.  Hunter brings a lower OBP but more power than Ichiro, and probably has an edge offensively.

Most fielding experts would place Jones well above Hunter in terms of defense, but it’s unclear where to rank Ichiro at this point.  I’m sure any team considering a long-term offer to Ichiro is scouting his center field defense carefully and applying advanced grading systems.

Ichiro has the biggest fan appeal, though Jones may be a draw in his own right.  In terms of simply the most desirable player over the next four or five seasons, I rank them Jones, Hunter, and Ichiro.  I know power isn’t Ichiro’s game and all that, but he still needs to be compared to Jones and Hunter in that regard.  We haven’t seen many signs of it, but it’s possible Hunter adds some more walks to his game as he ages.  We’ve seen that with Jones.

The second tier contains Mike Cameron, Corey Patterson, and Eric Byrnes.  Cameron is the best of those despite being the oldest.  However, he may be off the market within a couple of weeks.  Click here to take a look at the rest of the free agent CFs.   

Jorge Sosa For Todd Williams?

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Kevin Davidoff of Newsday has rumor of a small trade that has been discussed.  In March, the Mets and Orioles discussed swapping Jorge Sosa for Todd Williams.  However, there’s been nothing going on recently.

The Mets picked up Sosa this winter for $1.25MM to add some pitching depth.  I imagine more teams will start calling about the 29 year-old Sosa, noticing he’s thrown 13 scoreless innings in Triple A.

Williams is earning $775K from the O’s. The 36 year-old has only made two appearances, and has two scoreless innings under his belt. 

Westbrook Gets Three-Year Extension

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According to MLB.com, the Indians have extended starter Jake Westbrook through the 2010 season, with no option years. 

PECOTA would only offer about $25MM to the groundballer, but Baseball Digest Daily reports the amount as $33MM.  That’s on par with Javier Vazquez’s recent extension.  The deal is clearly a hometown discount; Cleveland journalists had speculated that he’d get at least four years and $12MM annually.

That still leaves C.C. Sabathia and Travis Hafner as the team’s major upcoming free agents.  That’s not until after the 2008 season though.  It has been said that Carlos Zambrano’s contract could serve as a framework for Sabathia’s.  Assuming the Cubs sign Z at five years, $80MM, the Tribe should go for a similar deal with C.C.  This year might be his best, so the time is now.  Personally, I don’t think the below-market Westbrook deal kills the C.C. possibility.   

On Pronk, I think the Indians can hold off.  As awesome as he is, that’s a $100MM+ contract and at least a five year commitment.  If the team makes the playoffs this year and/or in 2008, maybe that would create some extra revenue to put towards Hafner.

Oliver Perez Meltdown

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Tuesday’s nuclear meltdown of Oliver Perez in Shea Stadium has an important potential impact on the NL East as the Mets are counting on Perez to hold down the fort till Pedro’s bionic arm heals. Perez is nursing the uneven balance between an ace’s arm and a George McFly mind that has inspired many in the business to toss in their two cents. Perez’s talent has been the lost pirate treasure for many the gold thirsty pitching coach and columnist, each with their own interpretation of the treasure map. After Tuesday’s multi walk extravaganza, the theories were bountiful even if the reward wasn’t.

Koosman: “He was simply trying to aim the ball, instead of throwing it. When you try aiming it, you’ll lose velocity. He threw 94 and went down to 87 with his fastball. When I got into trouble like that I just threw harder and it helped.”

Darling noticed his arm was slightly lower in his delivery, like he was almost throwing side arm. It’s just a matter of him locking down his mechanics and getting into the habit of pitching the "right" way. They also mentioned Rick Peterson had him pitch over and over in side sessions, literally stopping him if he gets into his old routine.

Other Mets tidbits:

  • Toasted Joe’s came up with the greatest nickname ever for Ambiorix Burgos. The fans in Kansas City should appreciate the “Amburglar”.
  • If you haven’t read the Jose Valentin Experience you’re missing out. This has helped make “’stache” a cult hero in New York. Employees of the Ground Round salute you Jose!
  • The Mets are looking at Todd Williams as a possible salary dump pickup.

By Nik Kolidas

Ringolsby On Lidge, Otsuka, And More

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Esteemed Denver Post writer Tracy Ringolsby drops a few trade rumors on us in this morning’s column.

  • Ringolsby writes that the Padres have some rainy-day money saved up to be used specifically for one of three players, if they are available and the team is contending.  The players are future free agents Ichiro Suzuki, Andruw Jones, and Torii Hunter.  I’m not sure how Mike Cameron would feel about that, and whether it would affect his contract negotiations.  Hopefully he wouldn’t mind moving to a corner.
  • Should Eric Gagne prove himself healthy and reliable (a long shot), the Red Sox, Indians, and Marlins have interest in acquiring Akinori Otsuka.  In my opinion the Phillies might want in on that too.  The Mets and Diamondbacks have expressed interest in the past.  I’m a bit skeptical that the Marlins would take on another $3MM reliever after the Jorge Julio debacle.
  • The same three teams Ringolsby mentioned for Otsuka would have interest in Brad Lidge if available.  Also, some major connections between Lidge and the Rockies are described.  And Buster Olney mentions the Blue Jays as another possibility in his blog today. 
  • Ringolsby quotes Joe Nathan as saying his agents have had positive initial talks with the Twins.  Yesterday, Jon Heyman of SI.com had a source indicating that talks with Nathan had slowed.

Reading Material

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A couple of good trade/signing related blog posts to check out tonight:

Aaron Gleeman discusses why Jon Heyman’s recent article about Johan Santana didn’t make sense to him from the start.

Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner ranks his top 40 MLB players by pure trade value.

Ken Rosenthal discusses the idea of Mark Cuban buying the Cubs.  As a Cubs fan, I’d love to see it, but it doesn’t sound likely.

Banks of the Anacostia makes some predictions for those lovable Nationals.

For those of you into fantasy baseball, my latest column at RotoWorld is up.  I write the Waiver Wired series, discussing each week’s possible pickups for both mixed and AL/NL-only leagues.

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