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Archives for May 2007

Rosenthal On Zambrano

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Ken Rosenthal says of Carlos Zambrano:

"Imagine him wearing another uniform next season. Barring a sudden, unexpected twist, that’s where this is going."

He goes on to run through various Zambrano suitors for the upcoming offseason: the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Astros, Angels, Dodgers, and Tigers.  Rosenthal throws the Rangers, Orioles, Mariners, and Phillies into the mix as well.  Might as well include the Blue Jays on that list as well.

As a lifelong Cubs fan, obviously it would be hard for me to see Zambrano depart. The biggest blunder in Cubs history was letting a 27 year-old Greg Maddux become a Brave. 

Still, I do wonder whether unlike Mad Dog at the time, Z’s best years are behind him.  His climbing walk rate is scary, and you can’t help but question the long-term health prospects for a power pitcher with his mileage.  What can we expect from Zambrano’s age 27-31 seasons?  I really like the Mark Gubicza comparison.  Both are big righties who logged roughly 1,000 Major League innings before their 26th birthdays.  Gubicza was a horse up until his age 28 season, when the wear and tear started to catch up with him.   

If Zambrano straightens himself out and wins 15 games and the Cubs make the playoffs, fans will be clamoring for his retention.  However, the big picture outlook says to let him walk and take the draft picks, or even trade him in July.  The contract will be for a minimum five years, and perhaps as many as seven if he hits the open market.  $17MM annually might be below market value, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good idea.

Carl Crawford Available?

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Just a mini-rumor of sorts, only a notch above speculation.  But hey, this is a rumor site.  Yahoo’s Tim Brown mentions that Tampa Bay outfielder Carl Crawford can be had, and suggests the Angels make an offer.

It’s early yet, but it looks like Crawford will set a career high in walks at age 25.  He’s never topped 37 in a season, but already has 15 in 34 games.  This is an excellent step forward in development, and convenient for the walk-allergic Angels if they’re interested.  Hopefully they wouldn’t unteach the new skill.  Crawford is also maintaining his power with a .481 SLG.

Crawford is signed through his prime on a very team-friendly contract: assuming all options are exercised, he’s owed $27.5MM for 2007-10.  A package of prospects centered around oft-rumored Ervin Santana seems to make sense.  The mass media is calling for the Halos’ pitching surplus to be used for a bat, and I agree.  However, I’m not sure Crawford would give them the significant jolt of OBP and SLG they need.  I’d like to see the Angels revisit the Todd Helton talks, or maybe go after Pat Burrell or Adam Dunn.

Cards Interested In Weaver?

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According to Viva El Birdos, Walt Jocketty called Bill Bavasi yesterday, willing to take Jeff Weaver off the Ms’ hands for salary relief.  Yahoo’s Tim Brown believes the Cards would only have to pick up about $2MM of Weaver’s $8MM salary in a deal.  However, Weaver later landed on the DL with shoulder tendinitis.  Weaver had made six starts for the Mariners, losing all of them and allowing at least seven hits in each.

Previous speculation had involved the Mariners releasing Weaver.  The Cardinals offered Weaver $6MM over two years plus incentives, and the Pirates were also interested last winter.

Speaking of Viva El Birdos, Larry has a great idea to "evoke Josh Hancock’s memory and his tragic mistake," an idea far better than banning alcohol in clubhouses.  Check it out.

Chris Burke Demoted; Trade Next?

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This afternoon, the Astros made the tough decision to demote CF/2B/LF Chris Burke to Triple A.  With Craig Biggio and Hunter Pence playing every day, and Mark Loretta hitting .375, the Astros preferred to send Burke down to play more consistently.

Burke will report to Round Rock within his three day limit, but his comments suggest he wouldn’t mind a trade:

"I’d like to play in the Major Leagues for somebody.  Hopefully it will be [Houston], but I don’t know what will happen. [Going elsewhere] is obviously something I have no control over. I just want to play."

Burke, now 26, set a career high with 366 ABs for the Astros last year.  He began the year as the Astros’ starting center fielder but has already been supplanted by hot prospect Pence.  Last year, Burke had a strong first half (.298/.376/.483) and became a full-timer in June.  He didn’t show much power after that, and finished on a low note with a .583 OPS in September.

Burke still carries a pretty strong PECOTA projection (.278/.348/.452).  Looking at his comparable players list, Robby Thompson appears to be Burke’s upside.  He was the 10th overall pick in ’01 as a shortstop.  Burke eventually moved to second base before the ’04 season.  He made a lot of top prospect lists after posting a .912 OPS in Triple A that year.  He was given a shot in ’05 but didn’t hit much. 

It should be noted that Burke had shoulder surgery last October, and his slow start could be related. I think plenty of teams would show some interest in a versatile, cheap player with a decent pedigree.  The Mets could consider him for some additional help at second base, or the Marlins could pursue him to play center field.

A’s Lock Up Nick Swisher

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Today, the A’s locked up first baseman/outfielder Nick Swisher through 2011 with a club option for 2012.  He had been due for free agency starting in 2011. The cash breakdown: $26.75MM for 2007-11, and $10.25MM with a $1MM buyout for the option year.  That option becomes $12MM with a top five MVP finish over the life of the contract; I think there’s a decent chance of that happening.

Swisher is a 26 year-old switch-hitter with a career line of .249/.356/.475 in 1169 ABs.  His walk rate is up near 20% this year; this should be his first 100 walk season.  Swisher’s top two comps according to Baseball Prospectus are Tim Salmon and Harmon Killebrew.  Both players were good hitters into their mid-30s, so this contract looks great for Oakland.

Padres Need A Bat

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The Padres are currently 13th in the NL in OBP and 10th in slugging.  They could really use a hitter – Mike Cameron and Kevin Kouzmanoff have been offensive black holes, Brian Giles has less power than his brother, Khalil Greene never gets on base, and Josh Bard batted cleanup a few days ago.

Phil Nevin’s agent and apparently a San Diego radio station have been campaigning for the Padres to sign the free agent.  I think his supporters are more focused on the 22 homers than the fairly meager .438 SLG or the fact that Nevin can’t play defense.  Tim Sullivan of the San Diego Union-Tribune throws out three other possible upgrades at third base: Troy Glaus, Hank Blalock, and Ryan Zimmerman.

Blalock seems to be bouncing back so far; he’s at .292/.346/.467.  Kevin Towers and Jon Daniels have hooked up for two deals – one the infamous Adam Eaton trade, and the other a minor one that sent Freddy Guzman to Texas. 

We discussed Glaus yesterday – he would have to have a desire to come to San Diego.  Some scouts from other teams have been spotted at recent Blue Jays games, but the Padres were not among them.  As for Zimmerman, I would imagine the Nationals want to build around him.

We went through a Kevin Towers analysis last year, when the Padres were more clearly in need of a third baseman.  We learned that Towers has strong connections with Bill Bavasi and also the Red Sox.  That could make Adrian Beltre and Mike Lowell legitimate candidates.  Lowell is in his walk year and has slugged a surprising .549 so far.

 

Did Cal Ripken Read Game Of Shadows?

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I am not one to get up on a pedestal and preach about steroids.  If you offered me fame and riches beyond belief, I might try give ’roids the old college try, consequences be damned.  I understand why Barry Bonds did what he did, and don’t hate him for it.  Nonetheless, you have your head in the sand if you act like 1)there’s any doubt Bonds took steroids and/or 2)his home run record will be on equal footing with Hank Aaron’s.

I know it’s really hard to hit a baseball no matter how jacked up you are.  I know that Babe Ruth faced watered down pitching with no minorities.  But Barry Bonds injected himself with many, many PEDs for years.  If any advantage deserves an asterisk, it’s blatant cheating.  Check out this quote from Cal Ripken on Bonds:

"I’d like to think that until there is evidence or proof that he’s done something wrong, you would give him the benefit of the doubt."

Seriously?  Sit down, read Game Of Shadows Cal.  There is overwhelming, staggering evidence that Bonds used PEDs.  For former and current players to deny it is ludicrous and insulting to fans.  I can respect a "no comment" on the issue, but not denial.  You can call Curt Schilling a blowhard, but at least he’s honest.  Said Schilling on Bonds: "There’s no gray area."  Exactly!  With, say, Jay Bell or Brady Anderson, there’s plenty of gray area.  We need some evidence beyond a home run spike.  Fluke home run spikes can happen without PEDs. 

With Bonds, there was a well-researched book written and even his own grand jury testimony.  To act like there’s any question here is sillier than presuming O.J. innocent.  I am not calling for Barry’s head but let’s call a spade a spade.

Please forgive me for the rant; I try to keep MLBTR mainly steroid-free.

Mark Teixeira Trade Speculation

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Interesting trade speculation from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News in Wednesday’s Q&A.  If the Rangers – currently 14-20 – slide further out of contention, they could consider trading 27 year-old first baseman Mark Teixeira this summer.  According to Grant, the bounty would have to include pitching and a Major League-ready first baseman or outfielder.

We know Baltimore covets Teixeira, so Grant’s idea of Nick Markakis and a pitcher for Teixeira could make sense on the surface.  The first baseman becomes a free agent after the 2008 season, but I don’t see the Orioles sitting down with Scott Boras and working out an eight-year extension.  I’m surprised we haven’t seen Teixeira’s name connected to the Angels yet; they’ve got the talent, the need, and the history of tolerating Scott Boras.

You may recall a Ken Rosenthal article from mid-March, where he paints Baltimore as quite anxious to acquire Teixeira. Rosenthal also throws the Nats into the mix since he’s a Maryland native and the team’s new ballpark will be opening.  As I noted a while back, Teixeira won’t be a free agent this offseason but he won’t come cheap in ’08.  His salary could jump from $9MM this year to $15MM or so through arbitration.

Homer Bailey Coming Soon?

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The Reds aren’t sure who will start in Eric Milton’s place on Sunday; phenom Homer Bailey is in the running.  RotoAuthority has the fantasy take.

Speaking of the Reds, they just demoted third baseman Edwin Encarnacion.  He’s had an awful start both offensively and defensively, but did hit .276/.359/.473 as a 23 year-old.  I can see some Aramis Ramirez parallells, though Ramirez doesn’t make EE’s top 20 comps at Baseball Prospectus.  He does have some big names on there, like Ron Gant, Steve Garvey, Ron Santo, and Adrian Beltre.  A team like the Twins would do well to buy low on him if possible.  He’s a known name on the Angels’ list.

Time For Blue Jays To Think About ’08?

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With about 20% of the season in the books, the Blue Jays are last in the AL East and seven games under .500.  Baseball Prospectus’s Postseason Odds report says they have an 11.29% chance of reaching the playoffs.  Looking at their runs scored and allowed, they’re not as bad as their record looks – BP’s report says the Jays have a much better chance of reaching than the Devil Rays (2.48% despite a better record).

Even without all these fancy reports, we can see that Toronto’s playoff chances are slim.  Sure, their offense has been pretty good, and they’re still waiting for Frank Thomas and Adam Lind to come around.  But the Jays are carrying around a 4.90 team ERA; their rotation has been predictably bad.  Chacin, Towers, Zambrano, Ohka.  No one really expected those guys to post sub-5 ERAs.  Probably not even J.P. Ricciardi.

Dustin McGowan is here to stay, and after a few months in the rotation he should start pitching like a solid #3.  And the Jays have a little bit of interest in adding Jason Davis, who could help in the rotation or bullpen.   But Ricciardi might be better suited to play for 2008, maybe sign a more legitimate starting pitcher in the 2007-08 offseason.  Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail can see a bit of an overhaul in coming months, specifically naming Troy Glaus as a trade candidate.

Glaus can pretty much be counted on for a .360 OBP and .520 SLG, though it seems like he’s older than 30.  This year it’s been his shoulder, Achilles, and hamstring.  Despite the aches and pains, Glaus has played in about 150 games in each of the last two seasons.  He makes $10.75MM this year and $12.75MM in ’08.  He was also awarded an $11.25MM player option when he was traded to the Blue Jays, and has a full no-trade too.  In other words, Glaus is calling all the shots. 

Perhaps the Angels would want Glaus back; they have a slew of third basemen on their radar.  The Phillies are another club lacking at the hot corner.  The Indians, Reds, or Padres might be interested as well, assuming the contract can be worked out. 

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