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Will Griffey Be Dealt?

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To hear Reds GM Wayne Krivsky tell it, "There’s a lot of misinformation out there."  We’ll try not to contribute to that.  But here’s the latest on Ken Griffey Jr.

Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News believes Junior will only go to Chicago or Atlanta; apparently the Mariners aren’t interested right now.  Griffey would have to be interested too, given his trade veto power.  When McCoy says Chicago, I assume he means the Cubs.  The White Sox seem unlikely, but you never know.

The chatter was reignited on Tuesday, when Peter Gammons quoted Griffey talking about how it made sense for the Reds to trade him now.  Griffey’s agent, Brian Goldberg, seemed to indicate that the quote from Griffey may have been taken slightly out of context.

Goldberg also mentions in that article that the Reds called Griffey to shoot down a rumor that had him going to the Brewers.  That one was new to me, but it sounds like there’s nothing to it.

Griffey would certainly be a helpful addition in right field at Wrigley.  However, as Greg Couch writes, the team’s direction with player acquisitions and contracts is an open question right now.  Ken Rosenthal, back on June 24th, said the Cubs were not involved in a trade for Griffey.  Jayson Stark debunked the Atlanta rumor a few days before that. 

Another major wrinkle for any Griffey trade is that he’s knocking on the door of 600 home runs and could pass Sammy Sosa this year for fifth all-time.  The Reds would hate to miss out on that good publicity.

Mike Plugh On Koji Uehara: Part 1

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Right fielder Kosuke Fukudome is going to be a big deal this winter. He’s the next big thing from Japan, and you can scroll through multiple posts on him here.

But there’s another name surfacing on the radar: 32 year-old righthanded starter Koji Uehara.  He’s a free agent likely to come over to MLB this winter (no posting fee).  I wanted to learn more about him, so I consulted the authority on such matters: Mike Plugh.  Mike runs the Uehara Watch blog.  He also has Matsuzaka Watch and writes for Baseball Prospectus. 

Our Uehara Q&A ran long so I’m breaking this up into two posts.

You’ve described Uehara as having an 88-90 mph fastball as well as many other pitches.  Is his forkball his bread and butter?  Is there anyone in MLB past or present you’d compare him to?

Koji Uehara has a fastball that tops out at 94-95mph, but he rarely hits that velocity anymore. His hallmark is control and he uses a slower fastball, at about 88-89 on the corners, more effectively as a veteran. His plus pitches include a knee-buckling forkball, a nice curve, and an effective slider.  If I had to compare him to a Major Leaguer, I’d go with a more sturdy Brad Radke. He’s about the same size, right-handed, and has such amazing control that I’d be comfortable with that kind of expectation.

Given the apparent failure of Kei Igawa in the AL East, do you think American League teams will shy away from Uehara this winter?  Is Uehara better than Igawa?

I think there are a number of teams that will be scared away from Uehara based on having seen Kazuhisa Ishii, Hideki Irabu, and Kei Igawa coming out of Japan’s Central League. Those teams probably will have made a mistake by not doing their homework. Uehara is one of the greatest pitchers of his generation. Where the other players had good numbers in Japan, Uehara also brings the same type of translatable ability that Daisuke Matsuzaka has. He knows how to pitch.

Uehara has been used as a reliever this year.  Was that a surprise to you, and which role do you think he’ll fill for an MLB team?

The shift that Yomiuri has made this season hurts his potential value. The Giants used Uehara as their closer to break him in during a late start, the result of a lingering hamstring injury suffered in Spring Training. The team raced off to a fast start and management decided to keep him there. He’s excelled in the role, but he’s not happy. He’s one of the premiere starters in Japan and shouldn’t be in the closer’s role. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Giants are doing it to spite him, as they know he will be gone next year. In no way, shape, or form should he be considered anything but a starter in the Major Leagues.

Many thanks to Mike Plugh for the interview.  I’ll post a couple of closing questions in Part 2 on Friday.

Indians Lock Up Hafner

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UPDATE: Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com adds that the deal includes a club option for 2013.

And now Paul Hoynes has more details.  The breakdown:

2007: $3.75MM
2008:  $4.75MM club option (exercised)
Additional $9MM added to 2007-08 salaries, bringing AAV for those years to $8.75MM
2009: $11MM
2010: $11MM
2011: $13MM
2012: $13MM
2013: Club option for undisclosed amount

Ken Rosenthal has the scoop: the Indians have signed DH Travis Hafner to a four-year, $57MM contract extension. The deal covers the 2009-12 seasons, though Rosenthal notes that some of the money will go towards Hafner’s well below-market salaries this year and next.  We’ll have to wait for further details.  It’s likely David Ortiz’s 4/52 contract signed in April of ’06 served as a benchmark.  What else would?

Some have speculated that Hafner’s contract situation has affected him at the plate this year.  He posted just a .702 OPS in June; he hasn’t had a month like that since 2003.  Pronk has consistently supplied 1.000 OPS seasons.  He’s quietly been one of the game’s very best hitters for years.

If you ask PECOTA, this extension is reasonable no matter how the compensation is spread.  They have Hafner as a $19MM player each year for 2007-09, and a $13MM player annually for 2010-11.  On the other hand, there are warning signs that Hafner could fall off rapidly as some of his top comparables did.

Earlier this year, Mark Shapiro said negotiations with Hafner would be tabled until season’s end.  He also believed at the time that it might be possible to retain Hafner, Jake Westbrook, and C.C. Sabathia.  He’s two-thirds of the way there, and both have been below-market.

Perhaps Shapiro will also change his tune and try to hammer something out with Sabathia?  C.C. is a Cy Young contender this year, and could ask for a contract resembling Barry Zito’s if he hits the open market.  Most likely, Sabathia’s agent Greg Genske will recommend he wait to see what happens with Carlos Zambrano.   

Yankees Will Negotiate In-Season With A-Rod

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Many commenters here at MLBTradeRumors have proclaimed that there is no way the Yankees let Alex Rodriguez leave after this season.  They are still a powerhouse team, and they can afford any player.

Those commenters have been validated by Buster Olney’s recent story at ESPN.com.  Buster says the Yankees will bend their rules to talk extension with A-Rod before the season ends.  The Yanks would want to add on to Rodriguez’s current contract, so he’d have to agree not to opt out.  That way Texas will continue footing a portion of the bill. 

Would an additional four years (2011-2014) for $120MM do the trick?  That would take him through his age 38 season, at which point he would still be probably a season or two short of Bonds’ home run record.  But locking him in through 2016 would be akin to a nine-year extension.

Former Dodgers GM Fred Claire believes the Yankees will only stop Rodriguez from exercising his out clause if they offer him something massive, like ten years and $300MM.

Mariners After Dontrelle Willis?

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According to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times, Dontrelle Willis-to-Seattle buzz is starting to heat up.  Willis could slide right in with Felix Hernandez to form a solid 1-2 punch atop the Mariners’ rotation.

Baker pretty much covers all the analysis angles and scenarios in his blog posting.  The Mariners have plenty of players who could interest the Marlins: Jeremy Reed, Jeff Clement, and/or Wladimir Balentien.  Baker does not think Adam Jones would be necessary to get a deal done, and the Mariners wouldn’t part with him anyway.  (By the way, click here to see my fantasy analysis of Jones).

It’s an odd time to trade Dontrelle, as his value is pretty low with his performance and forearm issues.  Willis just feels like a better pitcher than he actually is, doesn’t he?  As Baker says, the Ms would be gambling on Willis returning to form.  Better to gamble a few unproven prospects than seven years and $126MM. 

It seems that former Willis contenders like the Mets and perhaps Braves might be out of the running.  Kevin Kernan of the New York Times says the Marlins won’t trade Willis within the NL East, and most likely he’ll head west. 

But before purchasing your custom-made Willis Mariners jersey, consider that the Dodgers, Rockies, and Diamondbacks have all expressed interest in him before.  And those teams are kind of west of some stuff. 

Twins, Yankees Like Dan Johnson

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There’s a lot of buzz going around that the A’s may become sellers soon, nine games back in their division and eight out in the Wild Card.  Typical impending free agent parts like Mike Piazza and Shannon Stewart are candidates to be moved.

Another player Billy Beane could trade is first baseman Dan Johnson.  Johnson is nowhere near free agency, but top prospect Daric Barton is knocking on the door.  Having Johnson under contract through 2011 (if my math is correct) would make him especially valuable to a cost-conscious team like the Twins.  Makes a lot more sense than Ty Wigginton.

Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press says the A’s are intent on trading Johnson, and speculates that he’d be a fine fit at DH. Buster Olney adds the Yankees and Red Sox to the mix.  However, I think Buster may have accidentally misread the Walters article as far as the Boston part.

Johnson had an off year in 2006, but corrected double vision in the offseason and is hitting a solid .260/.369/.455 this year.  Granted that’s just a hair above average for a 1B/DH, but it’s a lot better than what the Twins have been running out there.  If Beane can pry away one of the Twins’ young pitchers – I keep bringing up Scott Baker – I imagine a deal can get done.

Braves Still Interested In Teixeira?

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We’ve seen the Braves connected in Mark Teixeira rumors before; in late June Kat O’Brien included the Braves in a sizeable list of interested teams.  Speculation for quite a while now has placed catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia in the discussion.

David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says the Teixeira-to-Atlanta rumor was still making the rounds at the All-Star Game.  He seems to be speculating when he says Jon Daniels would require Salty and another young player, but that sounds about right.  Perhaps the Braves wouldn’t be daunted by Teixeira’s free agency after 2008.  They could definitely let him walk and collect some valuable draft picks.  That’d bypass a lot of the Boras factor, though they’ll still have to arrive at a 2008 salary.

Braves’ first basemen have amassed an ugly .211/.264/.374 line in 318 ABs, most of it coming from Scott Thorman and the since-departed Craig Wilson.  But if they went with Saltalamacchia exclusively from here on out, would he be significantly worse than Teixeira?

The Braves are fourth in the NL in OBP and sixth in slugging, with Andruw Jones perhaps primed for a much better second half.  The bigger need is in pitching, specifically the starting rotation.  Atlanta’s 4.60 rotation ERA is just 10th in the NL, and they have to be at least slightly worried about John Smoltz.

The problem is that Teixeira is definitely on the market, while an ace starter may not be.  Javier Vazquez might be the best pitcher available.

Ichiro Extension In The Works

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UPDATE: Larry Stone is saying the five-year pact could approach $100MM.  David Cameron agrees.  And Ken Rosenthal has adjusted his figure from $75-90MM to $90-100MM.  An agreement appears imminent.  Looks like the Ms are paying full sticker price for Ichiro, though it’s not a bad deal.  Torii Hunter may be positioned as the best available center fielder this winter. 

Larry Stone of the Seattle Times describes how drastically the atmosphere has changed in Seattle over the last year, especially from Ichiro’s point of view.  Gone are the negative tree metaphors; the vibe is positive under John McLaren.  Winning doesn’t hurt either.

Stone speculates that a contract extension could happen soon for Ichiro.  He may not be a home run hitter, and he may not draw walks.  But all the hits have led to a strong .379 career OBP.  And he’s hit enough triples and doubles to bring his career SLG to .439 despite averaging about ten home runs per year.  Throw in premium center field defense and international appeal, and a four-year, $72MM extension sounds fair.

Decision Time On Dmitri Young

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The time has come for the Nationals to decide whether to trade their All-Star first baseman, Dmitri Young.  He’s arguably their best player this year, but he’s a free agent after the season and might yield a solid prospect.

Phil Wood would like to retain Young, and even sign him to a multiyear free agent contract.  He extols Young’s virtues as a "personable, productive, and solid candidate for comeback-player-of-the-year honors." 

Young’s 180 in public perception comes as quite a surprise to me.  In April of ’06 he choked a 21 year-old woman and faced a domestic violence charge.  An arrest warrant was issued in June when he failed to show up for court.  He later pleaded no contest to the charge.  Young’s had other problems as well, and I wouldn’t criticize those.  I’m glad he’s recovered.  But he still did something disgusting, far worse than anything Alex Rodriguez has ever done.  Leave him alone, let him play baseball, give him a second chance, sure.  But let’s not give the man a medal.  Save the adoration for an actual role model.  I know you may not agree, but I had to get that off my chest.

Anyway, Mark Zuckerman and Rick Snider think trading Young is a no-brainer.  The alternative would be letting him leave via free agency and taking the draft pick.  I talked to ESPN’s Keith Law to learn exactly what kind of pick the Nats should expect for Young:

"I’d say there’s a decent chance he’s a no-compensation guy, probably an equal chance he’s a B (one sandwich pick), and a slight chance he’s an A (one sandwich pick plus a pick from the signing team)."

Over the 2006-07 seasons, Young really hasn’t amassed the kind of stats that vault a player up in the Elias rankings.  The Nats wouldn’t get much if any compensation for him.  As far as published reports, only the Braves have shown interest so far.

   

Next Stop For A-Rod?

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Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News places odds on his eight most likely destinations for Alex Rodriguez in 2008.  In order of likelihood, McCarron names the Angels, Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, Cubs, Mets, and Giants.  The latter two are seen as long shots by McCarron.

The first four picks seem reasonable.  I don’t agree with the Chicago teams at 8-1 odds though.  Kenny Williams is a bargain shopper; A-Rod’s contract would be more than triple the largest in franchise history.  And the deal would be struck with Scott Boras.  Not happening.  The Cubs I thought had a good chance earlier this year, but not so much anymore.  If the ownership situation is thwarting a Carlos Zambrano extension and even a minor Jacque Jones dump trade, I wouldn’t expect it to get resolved in time to hand out a contract that will dwarf even Alfonso Soriano’s. 

I like the Giants more than 50-1, if Barry Bonds leaves but the team retains a win-now mentality.  Barry Zito might not be able to serve as the face of the franchise, after all.  To be fair, we are only 1/14 through Zito’s contract right now.  And the Red Sox with better odds than the Yankees seems questionable.

Some additional possible A-Rod destinations:

  • Rangers: I find this idea absurd, but it did appear in print today.
  • Blue Jays: He’d probably play shortstop in Toronto.  Some money will come off the books this winter, but many salaries escalate by several million for ’08 as well.  We have seen Ricciardi make free agent splashes, and he could keep Rodriguez away from the Yankees and Red Sox.  Toronto’s $82MM payroll entering ’07 was their highest ever.
  • Orioles: Same AL East motivation, plus a way to renew fan interest.  And the newfound tolerance of Scott Boras.  Ken Rosenthal mentioned in April that the O’s might make an offer.
  • Phillies: The Phils could have almost $30MM come off the books for ’08.
  • Diamondbacks: They’ve expressed interest in trading for Rodriguez in the past. Josh Byrnes and Co. haven’t made a signing like this yet, but it could represent the next phase in their plan as their young team keeps getting stronger.
  • Indians: They’ve inquired about a trade as well, but I really can’t see this happening.  Maybe if the Tribe wins the World Series.

We could probably throw a couple more teams in there but that’s the field as I see it.

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