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Archives for September 2007

Padres Like Josh Towers

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Throw 30 year-old starter Josh Towers into a big ol’ ballpark in the National League, and he could be a very useful back-rotation guy.  The Jays already saw this happen with Dave Bush.  With a 3.6 K/BB and a home run problem, Towers is definitely San Diego’s type.

Turns out that Padres GM Kevin Towers pursued Josh Towers this summer but wouldn’t part with Nick Hundley, Will Venable, or David Freese.  The Jays can either go to arbitration with Towers this winter or nontender him.  Even if arbitration would result in a salary around $4MM, it might make sense to sign and then trade him.

You can view my complete list of non-tender candidates here.

Another tidbit: the same San Diego Union-Tribune column linked above mentions that the Padres asked for Tony Gwynn Jr. from the Brewers during the Scott Linebrink discussions.

Needs and Luxuries: Houston Astros

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Today, we’ll take a look at the Astros.  They’ll install a fresh regime this winter and may do some major retooling.  It’s about time.

C – J.R. Towles
1B – Lance Berkman
2B – Chris Burke
SS – Adam Everett
3B – Ty Wigginton
LF – Carlos Lee
CF – Hunter Pence
RF – Luke Scott

SP – Roy Oswalt
SP – Wandy Rodriguez
SP – Woody Williams
SP – Chris Sampson
SP – Brandon Backe/Matt Albers/Troy Patton/Juan Gutierrez

Closer – Brad Lidge
Setup – Chad Qualls

Needs

Houston’s needs aren’t as bad as I originally suspected, but they still have some holes.  Can J.R. Towles take over as the full-time catcher in 2008 despite just 11 games in Triple A and a month in the bigs?  He plays good defense, mashed at Double A this year, and is athletic for a catcher.  He’s had some injury problems and it’d be asking a lot for him to handle the pitching staff as a rookie.  I wouldn’t mind seeing Brad Ausmus return strictly as a backup or a defensive-minded backup like Jose Molina signed.  The kid will need some tutelage but they can’t keep going back to Ausmus. 

Biggio is retiring, and he’s been a drain on the offense this year.  But Burke hasn’t been much better.  I like the idea of importing a veteran, hopefully one with more pop than Loretta.  Tadahito Iguchi would be a nice fit and his solid presence would help the team move on from Biggio.

Everett has been mentioned as a non-tender candidate.  It takes a whole lotta defense to support a .600 OPS, and he’ll have to regain his stride after breaking his leg this season.  It seems kind of cruel to cut him, but hey, this is a business.  Nice guys finish last.  The problem is that the free agent market for shortstops is bleak.  Tim Purpura had many trade discussions about Miguel Tejada; will the new GM resume those talks?  That kind of acquisition would really get people talking in Houston; a package could center around Troy Patton or Wandy Rodriguez.  Edgar Renteria would be another fine option.

Luxuries

I wouldn’t go so far as to call the outfield situation a luxury, but I think the Astros are fine here.  Lee is entrenched in left field.  I feel Scott is underrated.  Pence has obviously arrived.  While he’s better suited for right field, playing him in center again isn’t the end of the world.  Scott has been named as trade bait in the past but he’s a good player and his loss would create a new hole to fill.  An ugly April has masked his work since: .266/.362/.529 in 263 ABs.

The closest the Astros have to a luxury might be starting pitching, something I never expected to be saying after their losses of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte.  Oswalt is the rock.  Wandy makes a nice #3, Williams a respectable #4.  In my mind there’s no real #2 (Jason Jennings was supposed to fill that role).  But they have a lot of respectable options for the last two spots in Sampson, Albers, Backe, and Patton.  Sampson hasn’t been talked about much this year but he was doing a nice job until a sprained elbow ligament got the best of him in July.  There’s talk of bringing Jennings back on a one-year make good deal, an idea I like. 

It’s true that you can never have too much pitching but if the Astros have to part with Wandy, Albers, or Patton to get Tejada or Renteria I support it.  A new regime could make the Astros’ offense respectable again just by plugging in some league average bats.  It’ll be addition by subtraction to ditch Loretta, Ausmus, Biggio, Burke, and Everett.  This year those five combined for 1675 ABs.  The highest OPS of the bunch was Loretta’s .688. 

Odds and Ends

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Yet another collection of random recommended links…

Nationals Won’t Spend Money On Starters

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The Nationals have no pricey long-term commitments to starting pitchers.  Because of that, they’ve been able to filter through a multitude of arms to see who sticks.  The result hasn’t been pretty; the team’s 5.05 starter ERA is 15th out of 16 in the NL.  So far 13 different pitchers have made starts for Washington, and only Matt Chico has a shot at 30 starts.

There is a light at the end of the tunnel.  Imagine a 2007 rotation of Shawn Hill, Tim Redding, Jason Bergmann, John Lannan, and Chico.  Others like Joel Hanrahan and prospect Collin Balester will also be trying to break in.  Filler like Mike Bascik, Jason Simontacchi, and Jerome Williams can hopefully be avoided.  Sure, none of these guys are household names.  But if the Washington starters can improve their collective ERA from 5.05 to 4.55, they’ll be firmly in the middle of the pack in the NL.

Why do I bring this up?  In part because I wanted to commend the Nationals for not wasting money on bad starting pitchers.  But also to note Thom Loverro’s column from the Washington Times.  Loverro’s column says Jim Bowden has indicated that at most he’ll sign one veteran on a one-year deal (I’m guessing $3-4MM.)  Instead, money spent on free agents or acquired players this winter will focus on adding a big middle-of-the-order hitter.

Here are the free agent options.  Adam Dunn’s name jumps to the forefront, but he only becomes a possibility if the Reds decline his $13MM option for 2008.  That would be kind of dumb, but we’ll see.  Otherwise, how about Barry Bonds?  The brand new Nationals Ballpark (naming rights sold separately!) will be opening next year.  Maybe Bonds would start the team off on the wrong foot, though he would provide a power boost on a low-risk one-year deal.  Any other ideas on big-name hitters the Nats could sign or acquire?

Torii Hunter Turned Down 3/45 Offer

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According to Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, the Twins offered Torii Hunter a contract a few weeks ago for three years and $45MM. Ken Rosenthal had reported it as a four-year, $56MM offer, which Hunter denied.  One source of Rosenthal’s had indicated that the bare minimum hunter might accept is 5/75.  Christensen, however, says Hunter is after a deal like the 5/70 J.D. Drew ended up with.  If so, Hunter is being plenty fair with his demand.

Indeed, Hunter’s main concern is the length of the contract.  If he’s coming in at five years and the Twins at three, maybe they can arrive at four.  I could actually see a 4/56 contract as the Twins’ last and best offer.  But Hunter has talked about not wanting to take a discount and a "burning curiosity" to see what’s on the open market.  He seems likely to leave the Twins.

As far as Hunter’s next team, Ken Rosenthal has speculated on the Yankees, Phillies, Braves, Padres, Rockies, Giants, White Sox, and Rangers.

Needs and Luxuries: Oakland Athletics

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Let’s try a new feature here at MLBTR.  I’ll start going through teams and identifying positions they need to fill as well as positions that might be considered surpluses.  For lack of a better name it’ll be called Needs and Luxuries.  We’ll begin with the A’s.

For each team I’m going to set up the roster as seen below.  I won’t include backups for position players.  I won’t go into the full pitching staffs to keep it simple. 

C – Kurt Suzuki
1B – Daric Barton/Dan Johnson
2B – Mark Ellis/Donnie Murphy
SS – Bobby Crosby/Marco Scutaro
3B – Eric Chavez
LF – Travis Buck
CF – Mark Kotsay/Chris Denorfia/Chris Snelling
RF – Nick Swisher
DH – Jack Cust

SP – Dan Haren
SP – Joe Blanton
SP – Chad Gaudin
SP – Lenny DiNardo
SP – Rich Harden/Dan Meyer/Colby Lewis/Dallas Braden

Closer – Huston Street
Setup – Alan Embree/Justin Duchscherer

Needs

The A’s are an interesting club in that they’re trying to compete on a small-time payroll.  Realistically I could say that they need a solid, healthy center fielder to give some stability at that position.  I see Swisher and Buck as future corner guys.  But we know the A’s are not going to make a major signing to fill center field.  They’ll try to eke some value out of Kotsay in the last year of his deal.  They’ll hope Snelling can somehow stay healthy.  I think their best long-term bet is Denorfia, who will be recovered from elbow surgery by next season.  He could be a quiet steady presence in the coming years, and should have the defensive chops.

The A’s have some options in center but I think they should look outside of the organization for a shortstop.  A healthy and productive Crosby seems a long shot at this point.  He’s signed through ’09, so I think you just do what you can with that ugly contract and bring someone else in.  Maybe sign Juan Uribe on the cheap and give him a fresh start.  Perhaps try to match up with the Braves by offering up a Joe Blanton for Yunel Escobar.  The less adventurous and most likely option is to just go with Marco Scutaro.

Luxuries 

First baseman Dan Johnson is a luxury, sort of.  He seems like he might be able to muster up an .800 OPS and help some team like the Twins at DH.  Even though Johnson isn’t great the A’s need to make sure Barton is ready before unloading him.  Barton seemed on the verge after hitting .454 in Triple A in June, but he was very disappointing in July and August.  First base might be a surplus for the A’s at some point but it isn’t right now.

We can probably call starting pitching a luxury for the A’s.  While the cast has changed, Oakland has typically had a strong rotation in recent years.  Even if you’re not sold on Gaudin and DiNardo as 4.00 ERA guys, we have to assume Billy Beane can dig up more of these types.  And if Beane’s best at finding unappreciated starters, then he might be able to part with Blanton or Haren.  Haren is signed cheaply through 2010; Blanton hasn’t reached arbitration yet.  The discussion for either would begin with two top-flight prospects, hopefully position players.  The A’s could revamp the left side of their infield with say, Andy LaRoche and Chin-Lung Hu.  The Angels have the goods as well but don’t match up well.  Almost any team in baseball would have interest in Blanton or Haren.  Beane should shoot for a shorstop, third baseman, and top pitching prospect.

I wouldn’t call Eric Chavez a luxury, though the A’s may shop him because of his contract.  Trading him would require a third baseman in return, or else they’d just open up another hole.  There are no top prospects nipping at Chavez’s heels.

Thoughts on Oakland’s needs and luxuries as well as the new feature?

What Would You Like To See?

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My apologies for the lack of posts the last couple of days.  I went on a mini-vacation, and as you know this is a slow time for trade and signing rumors anyway.  Things will pick up again in November.

In the meantime, let’s use this post for suggestions on some topics you’d like to see covered here at MLBTR during September and October.  Free agent player profiles and free agent position breakdowns are probably coming soon.  Also I received a suggestion for breaking down each position in terms of needs.  For example: who needs a catcher this winter, and which teams have a surplus?

Let me know any other ideas for posts for the next couple of months.

Odds and Ends

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Some random rumor tidbits for the weekend…

  • Buster Olney checked with some execs on the trade value of Eric Chavez.  Given the player’s declining health, indications are that the A’s would have to eat some money and would not receive any top prospects in return.  Might be better just to hang onto him for 2008 and hope he can rebuild some value.
  • The Cardinals acquired Russell Branyan.  Branyan’s been well-traveled this year.  It looks like Scott Rolen may miss the rest of the season, so Branyan will add some depth there.  Brendan Ryan is still the starter at present though.
  • Apparently a Ryan Klesko to Detroit rumor surfaced yesterday, but it didn’t happen.  The Giants did a nice job moving Matt Morris but are stuck with many, many overpaid aging veterans.  I fear this team might try to win and rebuild in ’08, and that rarely works.
  • Randy Wolf signed a below-market deal guaranteeing him $8MM in ’07 with a $9MM club option for ’08.  Now that he’s having shoulder surgery, that option will be declined.  At the minimum Wolf could’ve snagged three years, $24MM last winter. Let this be a lesson to Matt Clement, Freddy Garcia, Jason Jennings, and Rodrigo Lopez – get the best deal you can.  Though to be fair, Wolf’s discount was more of the hometown variety than injury-related.
  • Bucco Blog is endorsing Tony LaCava for the next Pirates CEO/President.  Support is building for this guy.  Too bad it’s not an election.

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