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Archives for September 2007

Bonds For Cust?

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Scott Ostler has a suggestion in today’s San Francisco Chronicle: some kind of Barry Bonds for Jack Cust trade.  How would this work, with Bonds becoming a free agent after the season?  Cust, meanwhile, is under Oakland’s control for another five seasons or so.

Cust has easily been the Athletics’ most valuable hitter this year, despite spending April in the minors.  Bonds’ season currently ranks 16th among all hitters for VORP even in only 458 plate appearances.

The Giants have a chance to save $700,000 this year by keeping Bonds from reaching 525 plate appearances.  It’ll probably go right down to the wire.  Preventing him from reaching the last incentive would seem petty, and could mark the end of Barry’s long relationship with the team.  Problem is, no one can figure out another team that would have him. 

Mailbag: Braves Starting Pitching For ’08

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As always, you can hit up the MLBTR mailbag at mlbtraderumors@gmail.com.  September and October are good months for mailbag questions given the relative hot stove inactivity.

John P. writes:

What do you see the Braves doing about finding some starting pitching next season?  The gaping hole this year can’t be allowed to continue.  Do they have anyone left in the minors?  We all know about the free agent situation this winter, or lack thereof.

First let’s talk about who’s under contract and locked in for the ’08 rotation.

There’s Mike Hampton, who will earn a whopping $15MM in ’08 (all of it paid by the Braves unfortunately).  The 35 year-old southpaw had Tommy John surgery but hopes to be ready by Spring Training.  The Braves might be able to pencil him into the #5 slot if he impresses in winter ball.  But they can’t really count on him for anything.

Tim Hudson’s signed at $13MM for ’08.  His excellent ’07 season has been a huge surprise to me.  Even with some mild regression Hudson should be quite good.

John Smoltz is locked in at $14MM.  Wow, this is shaping up to be a pricey rotation.  Smoltz will be 41 next season and spent time on the DL this year with shoulder inflammation.  It”s hard to argue with results but you have to be a little concerned that he can keep doing this for another two years. 

Chuck James is the #3, and he’s nice and cheap still.  He had a DL stint this year with a tired arm/tight shoulder.

That’s where it starts getting iffy.  Other pitchers given starts by Atlanta this year: Buddy Carlyle, Kyle Davies, Lance Cormier, Jo-Jo Reyes, Mark Redman, and Anthony Lerew.  Of those who remain with the team there are none you feel comfortable penciling in as the #4 (which could become the #3 if Smoltz or James return to the DL in ’08).  Carlyle, Cormier, and Reyes have not been effective in the bigs.  Davies and Redman are with other teams and Lerew went down with TJ surgery.  Of the group, Reyes seems most likely to contribute.  Matt Harrison was the team’s best pitching prospect, and he’s gone to Texas in the Teixeira deal.

Bottom line: the Braves need to come up with one starter to bridge the gap between Smoltz-Hudson-James and the fifth guy. 

Free agency does present options.  Tom Glavine could finish his career in Atlanta.  John Schuerholz could make an injury play like Matt Clement, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Randy Wolf, Jaret Wright, or Jason Jennings.  They could hit up Japan for Koji Uehara.  They’ve had interest in Carlos Silva and Livan Hernandez in the past.

The Braves could reignite trade talks for Bronson Arroyo, Jon Garland, Carl Pavano, or Jose Contreras.  Edgar Renteria could be the best trading chip, though he doesn’t work for all those teams.  Unfortunately the Braves don’t have much to deal beyond Renteria.  The Braves liked Kei Igawa last winter, and could engage the Yankees on that topic.  The Yankees don’t really seem to have a place for Igawa in their 2008 rotation.

If you’re a Braves fan, you shouldn’t be terribly concerned.  The Braves need one starter, and Schuerholz could go in a million different directions.

Could White Sox Sign Torii Hunter?

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The Twins came to Chicago on Friday, sparking another round of Torii Hunter speculation for the White Sox.  Hunter, of course, played it cool. He basically said he’d be honored if the Sox wanted him, and wouldn’t have a problem playing for one of the Twins’ biggest rivals.

Remember, though, that Hunter’s bare minimum contract is 5/75 and the White Sox are currently looking at $92MM+ committed for 2008.  Even a backloaded deal would take the Sox close to their payroll limit.  While moving Jon Garland for cheap young players is a distinct possibility, I’m not sure if the rotation can take the hit.  And no one’s taking on Jose Contreras’s contract.  Kenny Williams is in a bit of a pickle as his farm system could use a reload but the team has too many veterans to rebuild.  He could trade them all off but Sox fans would revolt.

Despite the salary concern, Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press names the Sox as Hunter’s leading suitor and crosses the Cardinals off the list.

Diamondbacks Sign Bob Wickman

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The D’Backs have experienced second-half dropoffs from late-inning relievers Tony Pena and Brandon Lyon.  Plus, Juan Cruz’s shoulder may be barking again.  As a result, Arizona added some depth by signing 38 year-old Bob Wickman today.  The team’s press release is claiming he’s 35 but the beer gut is definitely more indicative of a 38 year-old.

Wickman must’ve gotten over his dissatisfaction with pitching in non-save situations, since Jose Valverde is going strong with 42 saves.

Glaus Implicated For Steroid Use

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Here at MLBTR I mostly try to avoid steroid posts unless they have implications for the hot stove.  In the case of Blue Jays third baseman Troy Glaus, a steroid connection definitely crosses into our realm.  It was recently revealed at SI.com that Glaus received steroids in 2003-04. 

It appears that steroid use played a large role in Glaus’s contracts.  We may never know whether his home run crown in 2000 was influenced by performance-enhancing drugs.  But that season led the Angels to lock him up through his arbitration years at four years, $22MM. 

In July of 2003, Glaus landed awkwardly trying to field a Julio Lugo bunt.  This was first labeled a bruise, but the ultimate result was a partial tear of his rotator cuff and a frayed labrum.  He was shut down for the rest of ’03 but chose rehab over surgery.  Glaus actually lost weight that winter.  He got off to a decent start in ’04 but by May elected to have the surgery.  That he made it back onto the field by September may have been aided by steroids.  He hit seven home runs that month.

It’s tough to say whether any teams suspected Glaus of steroid use at that point.  I often wonder to what extent these kinds of rumors float around inside the game and whether they influence GM decisions.  The Angels decided to let Glaus leave via free agency in favor of Dallas McPherson.  Did they know anything?  The Dodgers, Red Sox, Mets, Tigers, and Orioles all had interest in Glaus during the winter of 2004-05.  He wound up with Arizona for four years, $45MM.  That level of interest says to me that teams did not suspect Glaus of steroid use.

Looking to shed salary just one season into Glaus’s contract, the D’Backs sent him to Toronto in December of ’05.  An $11.25MM player option for ’09 was added to convince him to waive his no-trade clause. 

The Jays made Glaus available this summer, but the lack of interest was surprising.  $24MM over 2008-09 isn’t prohibitive for a power bat.  Glaus cleared waivers in August – no team risked a claim.  Even given Glaus’s full no-trade clause, the market’s apathy toward him seemed odd.  I wonder if perhaps there was already a buzz within the game regarding his steroid use. 

Pirates Fire Dave Littlefield

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The reign of terror is over – the Pirates have fired GM Dave Littlefield.  He’d been the team’s GM since July 31st, 2001 and his contract actually runs through 2008.  A partial list of his bad moves is below.

  • 1/2/02 – Agreed to terms with free-agent RHP Mike Williams on a two-year contract with a club option for 2004. 
  • 12/20/02 – Acquired RHP Matt Herges from the Montreal Expos in exchange for minor league pitchers Chris Young and Jon Searles.
  • 1/31/03 – Designated RHP Bronson Arroyo for assignment.
  • 7/22/03 – Acquired IF Jose Hernandez, minor league RHP Matt Bruback and a player to be named later from Chicago Cubs for 3B Aramis Ramirez, OF Kenny Lofton and cash considerations. 
  • 11/20/03 – Claimed off waivers: pitcher Matt Guerrier by Minnesota, pitcher Duaner Sanchez by Los Angeles.
  • 12/16/04 – Acquired C Benito Santiago, along with cash considerations, from Kansas City in exchange for RHP Leo Nunez. 
  • 7/28/05 – Acquired Minor League INF J.J. Furmaniak from the San Diego Padres in exchange for C David Ross. 
  • 7/31/05 – Acquired OF Jody Gerut and cash considerations from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for OF Matt Lawton. 
  • 1/4/06 – Signed OF Jeromy Burnitz to a one-year contract with a mutual option for 2007.
  • 2/28/06 – Agreed to terms with SS Jack Wilson on a three-year contract extension (through the 2009 season) with a club option for 2010.   
  • 7/31/06 – Acquired OF Xavier Nady from the New York Mets in exchange for RHP Roberto Hernandez and LHP Oliver Perez.
  • 2/1/07 – Signed RHP Tony Armas Jr. to a one-year contract, with a club option for 2008. 
  • 7/31/07 – Acquired RHP Matt Morris from the San Francisco Giants in exchange for OF Rajai Davis and a player to be named. 

Draft picks:

  • 2002 – Bryan Bullington at #1 overall (over B.J. Upton, Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder, Jeff Francis, Jeremy Hermida, Joe Saunders, Khalil Greene, Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, James Loney, Jeremy Guthrie, Jeff Francoeur, Joe Blanton, and Matt Cain).
  • 2006 – Brad Lincoln at #4 overall (over Andrew Miller, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Ian Kennedy, and Joba Chamberlain)

I admit that showing only this stuff is not fair, hindsight is 20/20, and the Pirates had certain financial constraints.  Littlefield made good deals and good draft picks too.  However, these are the reasons he was fired as far as I can tell.

White Sox May Shop Jon Garland

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The White Sox have shopped Jon Garland around in the past.  You may recall the failed deal with the Astros at the last Winter Meetings – the Sox were supposed to receive Jason Hirsh, Willy Taveras, and Taylor Buchholz.  There was even a press conference scheduled for that one.  Apparently the deal died when Kenny Williams demanded Hunter Pence as well.

Many teams have had discussions with the White Sox regarding Garland since then.  The Red Sox, Rockies, Braves, Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers, Mets, and Phillies all expressed interest.  The Braves reportedly offered Edgar Renteria and a top pitching prospect (pre-Teixeira trade) and were denied.

According to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times, Garland is "without question that most likely starter to be moved" by Kenny Williams this winter.  He says Williams will shoot for at least two relievers, one proven.  Garland makes $12MM in 2008 before reaching free agency.  Garland’s got a 4.75 ERA this year; you have to wonder whether he’d be worth the price for an AL team.  And even in the NL, is he that much better than Josh Towers right now?

Off the cuff, here are some relievers I think the White Sox might pursue: Manny Corpas, Jonathan Broxton, Jeremy Accardo, Joaquin Benoit, Tony Pena, Jose Valverde, Brad Lidge, Chad Qualls, and Huston Street.  What are your predictions for fair Garland trades that could actually happen this winter?

Stark’s Latest: Clemens, Pettitte, Lowell

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Jayson Stark has a new Rumblings and Grumblings column up at ESPN.  Let’s discuss.

  • Most folks think Roger Clemens will retire after the season.  The "will he, won’t he" storyline is one I won’t mind avoiding this winter.  Remember, back in February Roger said he told his son it was "80-20 that I wasn’t going to play." He also said, "I’m not leaving anybody hanging. I don’t want to play."  Good riddance.
  • Andy Pettitte has a $16MM player option for 2008.  This is similar to an out clause, where it’s win-win for the player.  He only exercises it if he couldn’t get it on the open market.  Pettitte’s the best free agent starting pitcher if he opts out.  Stark seems to think he’d decline the option but then just re-up with the Yankees for more money and/or years.
  • Word is that Mike Lowell would enjoy playing for the Phillies if the Red Sox don’t re-sign him.  Gordon Edes isn’t sure if the Red Sox would offer him three years, and believes another team might go four.  A four-year deal would cover his age 34-37 seasons…probably a bad move.  Then again, what do I know?  I thought he was toast after 2005.

White Sox May Deal Young Hurlers

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This winter, Kenny Williams may shop three hard-throwing, recently acquired White Sox pitchers.  Nick Masset, David Aardsma, and Andy Sisco have disappointed the Sox in their first seasons in the organization, and none earned September call-ups.  Aardsma and Masset are out of options, so the Sox will probably lose them if they fail to earn spots with the big club next spring.  Once a player is out of options he must clear waivers before he can be sent to the minors.

Masset will turn 26 next season.  He came over from Texas in the Brandon McCarthy trade.  The right has good command and can touch 96 on the gun.  Masset struggled as a reliever with the Sox, and has been working as a starter in Triple A since July.  He hasn’t impressed in that role either.

Aardsma was acquired from the Cubs in November for Neal Cotts, a trade that worked out for neither team.  Aardsma turns 26 in December; he’s posted massive strikeout rates at both Triple A and the Majors this year.  He was lights out for the Sox in April, whiffing 23 in 15.2 innings before it all fell apart.  He’s been closing for Charlotte.  I’m surprised the Sox soured on him so easily, especially after since they’ve fallen out of contention.

Sisco, a southpaw, will turn 25 in January.  He’s among the tallest men ever to take a big league mound at 6-9.  Like Masset, he failed in the Major League pen and was switched to starting this summer.  His control has been a problem so far.  "Wild Thing" came up in the Cubs’ system, gaining notoriety when he broke his left hand punching a clubhouse wall in anger in ’03.  The Royals pilfered him in the Rule 5 draft in December of ’04.  He made the jump from A ball to the bigs in ’05 and did a respectable job despite too many walks.  But he bombed in ’06 and the Royals saw fit to ship him to Chicago for Ross Gload.

Masset, Aardsma, and Sisco form an interesting albeit disappointing trio.  I imagine many teams will be willing to take a shot on them.

Tigers Trade/Signing Speculation

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Lynn Henning of the Detroit News posted a Q&A yesterday, giving his informed opinion on the Tigers’ various hot stove situations.  Below are some highlights.

  • Henning expects Kenny Rogers to be with the Tigers in 2008, and I think that’s the general sentiment around baseball.  Rogers has already stated that it’s the Tigers or retirement in 2008.  I’ll guess a $6MM base salary plus incentives to make $10MM possible.
  • Henning sees the Tigers picking up Ivan Rodriguez’s $13MM option for ’08, for lack of a better option.  Given the $3MM buyout it’s kind of a like a one-year, $10MM deal.  Ken Rosenthal opined back on August 11th that the Tigers would choose the buyout, but he also felt the team was "almost certain" to exercise the option when discussing it in April.
  • The price for Miguel Tejada – $26MM over two years plus a bevy of young players – is considered too high.  I’m not sure where the Tigers payroll will be in ’08; they opened ’07 with a team-record $95MM mark.  Based on my back of the napkin estimates, the Tigers will have to pay out a net $7.5MM extra based on escalating salaries of players already under contract.  Contracts for Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, and Jeremy Bonderman will contribute to a $19MM increase, while the losses of Todd Jones, Sean Casey, and Neifi Perez will save the team $11.5MM.  The net effect is the $7.5MM increase, which doesn’t account for replacements for the players lost.
  • One minor offseason acquisition for Detroit could be a left-handed hitting outfielder who can play first base. Luis Gonzalez, Mark Sweeney, or Darin Erstad could fit the bill.

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