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Archives for March 2008

Sox To Wait On Crede Trade?

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SI.com’s Jon Heyman gives his take on the White Sox-Giants Joe Crede trade talks:

The White Sox apparently haven’t been enamored by what the Giants have to offer for third baseman Joe Crede. A Giants person conceded, "We badly need bats,” but they aren’t to the point where they’ll give up any of their better pitchers to get them. One possibility could be hard-throwing reliever Jonathan Sanchez, though it appears now that Crede may not be traded until closer to this summer’s deadline.

White Sox GM Kenny Williams has previously said that Josh Fields will play third base in 2008, whether in the Majors or at Triple A.  He doesn’t have much left to learn there, however.  Ken Rosenthal explored a scenario that would allow the Sox to play both Crede and Fields at the corners – a trade of Paul Konerko before the veteran’s 10 and 5 no-trade rights kick in.

There is no reason that the Giants should feel motivated to include the promising Sanchez to acquire one year of Crede.  The 25 year-old southpaw has a "sneaky fastball and plus change-up," according to Baseball America.  He’s whiffed more than a batter per inning in his 92-inning big league career.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Thames, Konerko, Ellis, Atkins

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Ken Rosenthal has a new column up; let’s take a look.

  • Rosenthal dissects the outfield options for the Mets, many of the names we’ve been speculating.  He notes that the Mets’ talks for Marcus Thames fizzled during the Winter Meetings.
  • He says Paul Konerko "remains quietly available," and expresses the opinion that the Mets or Yankees could both use him.  Rosenthal believes Chicago’s biggest need is starting pitching.
  • Rosenthal speculates that six years at $18MM per might be the Rockies’ limit for Matt Holliday.  Will the Scott Boras client demand full market value?  Also, Colorado doesn’t seem to have any plans to lock up Garrett Atkins.
  • Signing Mark Ellis to an extension rather than trading him is a possibility for the A’s.  Three or four years at $5MM per would be the going rate.
  • Though Dylan Hernandez wrote that the Dodgers "don’t appear to be interested in Brandon Inge," Rosenthal says they’re "indeed intrigued."

Blocked Prospects: Reggie Willits

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As a 26 year-old with roughly one full season worth of Major League experience, Reggie Willits may not technically be a prospect.  But with Torii Hunter signed through 2012, Vladimir Guerrero through 2009 and likely to stay longer, and Gary Matthews Jr. through 2011, Willits certainly qualifies as blocked.  Terry Evans and Nathan Haynes are similarly impeded, and the latter is out of options.  But let’s center on Willits.

I want to focus on Willits because he is capable of playing center field.  In their 2007 handbook, Baseball America called him an "above-average center fielder with an average arm and plus speed."  So he clearly won’t embarrass himself with the glove. 

Offensively, Willits profiles as the ideal leadoff hitter.  In 576 big league plate appearances, he’s drawn 80 walks.  A walk rate near 14% and a .393 career OBP makes for a valuable center fielder, even with no power.  Baseball Prospectus sees him dipping to .269/.353/.354 this year, a performance worth $5MM even if he plays only two-thirds of a season.  He’s also a switch-hitter with no discernible split.  And for the next two seasons, Willits will earn less than a million bucks total.

I’ll assume another team would look to maximize Willits’ value by using him in center.  He could help the Twins, A’s, Braves, Marlins, Cubs, and Padres to various degrees.  The first four teams do have more interesting long-term options in center though.  The idea of Willits to San Diego has come up before; that’s the best fit.  The Angels are going with internal options at third base and shortstop as well as in the rotation.  If any of those fail, Willits, Evans, and Haynes could become primary trading chips.

Odds and Ends: Thames, Sosa, Inge, Crisp

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Here’s today’s link roundup.

Mets Talking Long-Term With Maine

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According to Bart Hubbuch of the New York Post, preliminary extension talks have begun with Mets starter John Maine.  Maine (along with B.J. Upton and Hanley Ramirez) was gracious about his recent renewal.  Maine is eligible for arbitration after this season.

As we’ve been saying, the going rate for a good young pitcher’s three arb years is $13-14MM, not necessarily all guaranteed.  A club option worth around $9MM for the 2012 season (Maine’s first year of free agent eligibility) would be about standard.

Pirates Talking Long-Term With Snell, LaRoche

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According to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Pirates have reached out to Ian Snell’s agent about a long-term deal.  Snell’s salary will increase drastically in 2009 as he reaches arbitration.  For that reason, I’ve wondered whether he might be next offseason’s available young ace.  Jamie Shields’ deal could serve as a guide if the Bucs just want to buy out Snell’s three arb years from 2009-11.  Shields gave up his arb years for $13.75MM, though the last of those involves a club option.  $13-14MM (not necessarily guaranteed) seems to be the going rate for a young pitcher’s arb years, looking at Shields, Chris Young, and Matt Cain.

Additionally, the Bucs are talking to first baseman Adam LaRoche about an extension.  LaRoche is set to reach free agency after the ’09 season.  I was surprised to see that LaRoche’s career numbers aren’t much different from Justin Morneau’s (granted Morneau has played in the tougher league and has an MVP trophy).  Morneau recently gave up four free agent years at $14MM a pop; LaRoche should ask for at least $10MM per year for 2010 and beyond.  Looking at Morneau’s contract reminds me that he is far from a bargain. 

Finally, Kovacevic says talks with Matt Capps have "fizzled" because Manny Corpas’ deal raised the bar.  That’s odd, because Corpas has a team-friendly contract. He gets $12.25MM over his arb years, with the last of those a club option.  Then the Rockies have a club option on Corpas’ first potential year of free agency at $8MM.

Quiet On The Roberts Front?

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On Monday, SI.com’s Jon Heyman said the Cubs and Orioles had resumed talks for Brian Roberts, and one of his sources said these talks were getting serious.

Not so, according to Jim Hendry and Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.  Hendry says he’s had "no active talks in any trade situation in the last five, six days."  Wittenmyer talked to one Cubs source who indicated that no progress has been made toward acquiring Roberts since camp began. Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune has the same story.  Both journalists reference "Internet rumors" rather than Heyman’s specific report, a practice that still strikes me as odd.

Markakis Renewed

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Is it fair to lump Nick Markakis in with the growing collection of young players annoyed with their renewals?  The Orioles gave Markakis a $55K raise up to $455K.  He apparently wanted something north of $800K.  That’s kind of how these "negotiations" go when one side has zero leverage aside from "unhappiness."  Markakis didn’t whine about it.  He said:

That’s just how the Orioles feel.  I don’t have much of a choice. I’m just going to have to deal with it.

ESPN interpreted this quote to mean Markakis was "miffed" and "ticked." In the above-linked article, Dan Connolly writes, "Those close to him, however, say Markakis was angered by the end result."

While there is a growing trend of pre-arb players being annoyed over renewals, let’s not lump Markakis in with Prince Fielder and Cole Hamels.  Markakis didn’t actually make any negative comments.  Expressing discontent to close friends about one’s salary is something most people do.

Phillies Not Interested In Lohse

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Kyle Lohse for one year and $4MM doesn’t sound too bad, does it?  Not to the Phillies, even with Adam Eaton and a couple of Durbins battling it out for the fifth starter job.  Phils assistant GM Mike Arbuckle said "I know we’re not interested" in Lohse at such a price.

I don’t get this.  Pretty much every team in the NL should be looking at Lohse if he’s really willing to take $4MM.  Even non-contenders have to consider the ol’ sign and flip with him.  Even this year, with teams showing relatively more common sense with free agents, $2-3MM deals have been tossed around on roster filler type players.  The standard rate for a sixth-inning middle reliever is three mil now.  The only explanation I can think of is that the reports are wrong, and Lohse is still trying to get $6-8MM.

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