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Archives for May 2008

Towers Angry, May Make Changes

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Padres GM Kevin Towers got angry last night, pointing out his team’s many flaws.  He suggested that wholesale changes may be on the way.  Minor leaguers would be called up as a group; he doesn’t want Chase Headley to feel too much pressure.  The Jake Peavy injury might be the nail in the coffin, though at least Peavy’s ulnar collateral ligament is said to be intact. 

Which players would be part of a veteran purge?

  • Greg Maddux.  The Padres’ highest paid player at $10MM, Mad Dog is calling his own shots at this point.  I imagine he’d prefer to stay put, but fans have speculated on returns to Atlanta or Chicago.
  • Brian Giles.  The team’s leadoff hitter still knows how to draw a walk.  He doesn’t hit lefties much but his overall numbers would look a lot better away from Petco.  He earns $9MM this year and has a $3MM buyout for ’09.  He can block trades to eight teams and gets a $2MM increase if dealt.  Does Seattle make sense?
  • Trevor Hoffman.  Even if Hoffman loses the closer gig a trade seems unlikely.
  • Randy Wolf.  He might be one of the Padres’ more tradeable commodities.  He’s signed reasonably and just needs to remain healthy.  Everyone needs pitching.
  • Khalil Greene.  Greene gets $4.5MM this year and $6.5MM in ’09.  A trade only makes sense if a good young shortstop comes back for Greene or in anothe deal.  Ken Rosenthal doesn’t expect him to be moved; same goes for Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez, and Kevin Kouzmanoff.
  • Others: Tadahito Iguchi, Tony Clark, Shawn Estes, Michael Barrett (if healthy).

    • Markakis To Talk Extension After Season?

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    The Orioles have been slow to embrace the trend of signing young players long-term to save money.  Granted, they don’t have any obvious extension candidates aside from right fielder Nick Markakis.  Jeremy Guthrie, maybe, but he’s represented by Scott Boras and isn’t a star player.  Seems too early for Adam Jones.  Earlier this month, Buster Olney wrote that the Orioles plan to wait at least three years before talking to Markakis or Jones about extensions.

    Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun has a new article up discussing Markakis’ situation.  He notes that Markakis’ agent hasn’t had substantive contract talks with the Orioles, but discussions are expected this winter since he’ll be arbitration-eligible for the ’09 season.  Connolly says the O’s aren’t concerned about saving money during the arb years; they’d be focused on buying out free agent seasons.  So they could definitely continue to wait even as fans get uneasy about Markakis.  Connolly figures Markakis’ salary will jump up to the $2.5-5MM range in ’09.

    Connolly suggests Alex Rios might be a good comparable for Markakis.  Rios basically gave up two arb years for $15.6MM and four free agent years for $49MM. 

    Free Agent Stock Watch: Ryan Dempster

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    One player whose stock has risen in ’08 is Cubs starter Ryan Dempster.  The 31 year-old hadn’t started regularly since ’03, but he currently sports a 5-1 record with a 2.35 ERA.  He’s earning $5.5MM in the last year of a three-year extension.

    Part of Dempster’s success can be attributed to his .211 BABIP, lowest in the league.  As a team the Cubs have a .277 BABIP, and something around there would be a more reasonable expectation moving forward.  On the plus side, Dempster’s 55% groundball rate ranks seventh in the NL, and it’s helped him keep the ball in the yard.  He has a solid strikeout rate and has been making improvements on a subpar walk rate.

    The Cubs have treated Dempster well, taking him on as a reclamation project and later giving him an extension at full market value.  Perhaps he’ll choose to continue the relationship.  A three-year deal in the $30-35MM range seems fair.

    Odds and Ends: Wilder, Vlad, Jose Reyes

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    Time to round up some links.

    Rangers Leaning Toward College Pitcher In Draft

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    According to T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com, the Rangers "would love to take a high upside college pitcher who could shoot through the system" with their 11th overall pick this June.  Sullivan suggests Shooter Hunt, Tanner Scheppers, and Christian Friedrich as possibilities.  Scheppers may be out of the picture given the stress fracture of his shoulder.

    ESPN’s Keith Law ranked his top 60 for the draft on May 10th, and he considered the top college pitchers to be Aaron Crow, Brian Matusz, Scheppers, Friedrich, Josh Fields, and Hunt.  In their May 16th mock draft, Baseball America picked high school first baseman Eric Hosmer for Texas.

    By the way, check out the June Amateur Draft link.  This will remain on the sidebar until after the June 5th draft takes place.

    Jacque Jones Signs With Marlins

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    According to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports and Mike Phillips of the Miami Herald, Jacque Jones has reached a contract agreement with the Marlins.  It’s a no-risk move for the first place Fish, who will pay him the pro-rated league minimum.  Jones, 33, hit .165/.244/.253 in 90 plate appearances for the Tigers.

    Rosenthal and Phillips seem to disagree on Jones’ role.  Rosenthal says Jones will be a fourth outfielder and bench bat and notes that he’ll begin at extended spring training.  Phillips sees Jones as the team’s starting center fielder.

    Giants Aiming For Position Player In Draft

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    The Giants have the fifth overall pick in this June’s draft, and Peter Magowan said yesterday that the team hopes to take a position player.

    Baseball America recently predicted the Giants would take first baseman Justin Smoak, while Jonathan Mayo went with shortstop Tim Beckham.  Beckham might be the superior choice, but he could be snagged by the Rays, Pirates, Royals, or Orioles.  It’s been rumored that the Orioles are leaning toward a college player, so perhaps they’ll pass on Beckham if he’s there at #4.

    Locking Up Young Stars: Martin, Kendrick, Kotchman, Pedroia, Uggla

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    Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times takes a look at the spate of recent long-term deals for young stars.  Talking to different players and agents, Shaikin found no consensus on whether such contracts are a good idea.

    • Some folks (including Shaikin and Pat Gillick, apparently) believe it’s wise for richer clubs to go year-to-year to avoid getting stuck with a bad contract.  I’m sure teams have done comprehensive studies on these types of contracts, but my guess is that flops are few are far between.  I can only think of a handful (Angel Berroa, Eric Hinske come to mind).  As Scott Boras says, teams usually choose players who will succeed.
    • Boras advises his clients to go year to year and maximize their total earnings.  He suggests young players signing long-term are getting "30 cents on the dollar."  Paul Cohen, author of the Troy Tulowitzki and Evan Longoria contracts, preaches security over maximum earnings.
    • Ned Colletti revealed that he has twice approached catcher Russell Martin about an extension, and has been denied.  Martin will be arbitration-eligible after this season and should add an extra zero to his $500,000 salary, at least. 
    • Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick would consider a long-term offer, and GM Tony Reagins isn’t opposed to long-term deals for young players.
    • First baseman Casey Kotchman is a year-to-year guy.  He astutely notes that in most professions employees aren’t even guaranteed one year.
    • Jumping over to the Boston Herald – the Red Sox have twice approached Dustin Pedroia about a deal.  Pedroia is amenable to the idea. 
    • It’s not known if the Marlins are planning to buy out Dan Uggla’s arbitration years, but he seems open to it.

    What’s Next For The Royals?

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    MLB.com’s Dick Kaegel notes that the Royals have closer Joakim Soria and outfielder David DeJesus under contract multiple years into the future.  Is anything cooking with other young Royals?

    • The Royals didn’t seek Soria out to sign him.  Instead, he was "very aggressive" and approached the team, according to Dayton Moore.  And Allard Baird signed DeJesus.
    • Kaegel spoke to Alex Gordon and Brian Bannister, and learned that nothing is in the works.  Bannister wondered whether his age (27) could be a factor.
    • Kaegel didn’t talk to Zack Greinke or John Buck, but Bob Dutton did a week ago.  Neither has been approached to talk extension.  Greinke said he didn’t know what he was worth, while Buck admitted he’d welcome talks.  No word on Billy Butler or Mark Teahen.
    • Craig Brown of Royals Authority offers his predictions on contenders for long-term deals.

    Lofton Still Wants To Play

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    According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, free agent Kenny Lofton "is still waiting and hoping for a chance to play."  Why can’t the 41 year-old outfielder find a job?  With an .818 OPS last year, he still has talent.  Is Lofton sitting at home for lack of interest, or is he asking for too much in terms of money or playing time?

    Lofton would fit with a contender; he should be used strictly against righties.  Would the A’s have room?  Emil Brown could use a platoon partner.  The Cubs might make sense if Jim Edmonds doesn’t pan out.  Atlanta or San Diego maybe?  What do you think?

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