Brewers Hope To Add Two Starters
Brewers GM Doug Melvin spoke to reporters today, and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has quotes. A few highlights:
- Melvin feels that re-signing closer Trevor Hoffman early will aid the Brewers in attracting free agent starting pitchers. Melvin hopes to add two starters.
- When asked about trading Prince Fielder or Ryan Braun, Melvin responded, "I don't see that happening." Might as well close the book on those rumors.
- The Brewers view Rickie Weeks as their starting second baseman, which implies they'll let free agent Felipe Lopez leave.
- Melvin told Haudricourt it would "be very difficult" for the Brewers to keep both J.J. Hardy and Alcides Escobar. Hardy could be a great pickup given the scarcity of shortstops. Also, Haudricourt thinks Mat Gamel could be available in trade.
Discussion: Takashi Saito
Let's talk about Red Sox reliever Takashi Saito, who is a sleeper closer candidate for 2010 after bouncing back well (2.43 ERA, 52 strikeouts, 25 walks in 55.6 innings) from an interesting elbow procedure. WEEI's Alex Speier has the details - the Red Sox have a $6MM option on Saito for 2010. If the option is declined as expected, Saito will be an unfettered free agent. Through an interpreter, Saito told Speier he'd like to return to the Red Sox. Speier speculates that the two sides could negotiate a new deal.
If Saito doesn't re-sign, which clubs might be interested? Last winter, the Cardinals and Twins were in on him before he signed with Boston. This year, if Saito wants to return to a closer role, the 39-year-old might find opportunities with the Orioles, Rays, Tigers, Braves, Marlins, and Astros.
Projected Type B Free Agents
All the data is in for Eddie Bajek's Elias Ranking projections. There may be a few errors to clean up but we'll take a look at the tentative rankings anyway. The projected Type B free agents (asterisk denotes an option):
Garret Anderson
Rod Barajas
Erik Bedard
Joe Beimel
Ron Belliard
Adrian Beltre
Doug Brocail*
Marlon Byrd
Kiko Calero
Mike Cameron
Carl Crawford*
Doug Davis
Carlos Delgado
Justin Duchscherer
Scott Eyre
Pedro Feliz*
Chone Figgins
Jon Garland*
Jerry Hairston Jr.
Rich Harden
Ramon Hernandez*
Bob Howry
Aubrey Huff
Nick Johnson
Randy Johnson
Reed Johnson
Jason Kendall
Adam LaRoche
Braden Looper*
Brandon Lyon
Jason Marquis
Hideki Matsui
Melvin Mora*
Guillermo Mota
Xavier Nady
Will Ohman*
Miguel Olivo*
Vicente Padilla*
Chan Ho Park
Carl Pavano
Andy Pettitte
Joel Pineiro
Fernando Rodney
Ivan Rodriguez
Brian Schneider
Gary Sheffield
Brian Shouse*
Russ Springer
Jason Varitek*
Tim Wakefield*
Dave Weathers*
Brandon Webb*
Randy Winn
Gregg Zaun*
The biggest beneficiary of Type B status is Figgins, who was due an arbitration offer from the Angels whether he's A or B. If his B ranking holds up, he'll be more attractive to other teams since he won't cost a draft pick. Byrd, Nick Johnson, Marquis, Pavano, Pineiro, and Rodney seem like strong candidates to be offered arbitration.
When a Type B free agent is offered arbitration, turns it down, and signs elsewhere, the losing team does get one draft pick. The pick does not come from the signing team; it is instead inserted into a supplemental round. The Reds (Jeremy Affeldt), Rangers (Milton Bradley), Diamondbacks (Brandon Lyon), Twins (Dennys Reyes), Brewers (Brian Shouse), and Angels (Jon Garland) were compensated with draft picks for Type B losses last year.
Projected Type A Free Agents
Eddie will take a final pass-through before signing off on his projected Elias Rankings, but all 2008-09 regular season data is included in the latest update. Here's a list of the 31 free agents projected to have Type A status (an asterisk denotes an option):
Bobby Abreu
Jason Bay
Rafael Betancourt*
Orlando Cabrera
Johnny Damon
Mark DeRosa
Octavio Dotel
Jermaine Dye*
Brian Giles
Mike Gonzalez
John Grabow
Kevin Gregg
Vladimir Guerrero
LaTroy Hawkins
Matt Holliday
Orlando Hudson
John Lackey
Cliff Lee*
Victor Martinez*
Bengie Molina
Darren Oliver
Placido Polanco
Manny Ramirez*
Marco Scutaro
Rafael Soriano
Miguel Tejada
Jose Valverde
Billy Wagner*
Randy Wolf
We can remove Cabrera because he cannot contractually be offered arbitration, and we can assume the options for Lee and Martinez will be exercised. That leaves 27 players.
For the player, Type A status can be dangerous. If a Type A free agent is offered arbitration and declines, his new team has to give up a draft pick to sign him. The following teams would have to give up their first-round pick in 2010 if they sign a Type A free agent from another team who was offered and turned down arbitration: the Rays (#17), Mariners, Tigers, Braves, Twins, Rangers, Marlins, Giants, Cardinals, Rockies, Phillies, Dodgers, Red Sox, Angels, and Yankees. The teams not listed would have to give up their second-round pick.
If Holliday and Lackey sign with new clubs, those teams will presumably feel that the draft pick cost is acceptable. Beyond those two, the cost might be prohibitive, as it was with Jason Varitek and others last offseason. Last year, the Dodgers (Orlando Hudson), Mets (Francisco Rodriguez), Yankees (Mark Teixeira), Phillies (Raul Ibanez), and Angels (Brian Fuentes) were willing to surrender first-round picks.
Last winter's events might lead to a game of cat and mouse between players and teams this time around - teams will be less inclined to offer arbitration to their Type A free agents out of concern that those players will be more inclined to accept. If a player accepts arbitration, he's under that team's control for 2010 and the two parties will go to a hearing if they can't agree on a salary.
Elias Rankings Update
At the end of each season, The Elias Sports Bureau ranks all MLB players numerically based on a bunch of stats. Every player is categorized in one of five position groups and by league. The rankings cover a two-year time period. They are used to determine whether free agents are Type A, Type B, or neither. If you’d like a reminder on how draft pick compensation works, read up here.
Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts reverse-engineered the Elias Rankings last year. Eddie’s incredible work was made possible in large part due to information provided by ESPN’s Keith Law. Eddie is now providing the rankings exclusively to MLB Trade Rumors. These projections cover the 2008-09 seasons. Note to journalists: if you use these projections in an article, please credit Eddie Bajek and MLB Trade Rumors.
Elias Rankings Update
At the end of each season, The Elias Sports Bureau ranks all MLB players numerically based on a bunch of stats. Every player is categorized in one of five position groups and by league. The rankings cover a two-year time period. They are used to determine whether free agents are Type A, Type B, or neither. If you’d like a reminder on how draft pick compensation works, read up here.
Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts reverse-engineered the Elias Rankings last year. Eddie’s incredible work was made possible in large part due to information provided by ESPN’s Keith Law. Eddie is now providing the rankings exclusively to MLB Trade Rumors. These projections cover the 2008-09 seasons. Note to journalists: if you use these projections in an article, please credit Eddie Bajek and MLB Trade Rumors.
Brewers Sign Trevor Hoffman
WEDNESDAY, 10:51am: Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has Hoffman's contract details; the deal was announced by the Brewers today.
MONDAY, 1:50pm: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says Hoffman's mutual option for 2011 could be worth up to $8.5MM depending on games finished in next year. The option has a $500K buyout attached, and that "could increase to $1MM if Hoffman finishes 40 games."
10:17am: Closer Trevor Hoffman has agreed to terms with the Brewers on an $8MM contract for 2010, according to ESPN's Buster Olney. The deal also includes a mutual option for 2011.
Hoffman, 42 in a week, experienced a resurgence in 2009 despite spending most of April on the DL with an oblique injury. His strikeout and walk rates actually worsened a bit, but he was able to drastically limit hits and home runs. The Brewers are betting big bucks that those hit and home run rate reductions are somewhat sustainable.
Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Astros. Their likely commitments for 2010:
C – Humberto Quintero – $610K+
C – J.R. Towles – $402K
1B – Lance Berkman – $14.5MM
2B – Kaz Matsui – $5MM
SS – Tommy Manzella – $400K
3B – Chris Johnson – $400K
IF – Jeff Keppinger – $428K+
IF – Edwin Maysonet – $400K
LF – Carlos Lee – $18.5MM
CF – Michael Bourn – $435K+
RF – Hunter Pence – $439K+
OF –
? –
SP – Roy Oswalt – $15MM
SP – Wandy Rodriguez – $2.6MM+
SP – Brian Moehler – $3MM
SP – Bud Norris – $400K
SP – Felipe Paulino – $405K
RP – Tim Byrdak – $1MM+
RP – Chris Sampson – $449K+
RP – Wesley Wright – $425K
RP – Jeff Fulchino – $400K
RP – Alberto Arias – $402K
RP – Sammy Gervacio – $400K
RP – Yorman Bazardo – $400K
Other commitments: Doug Brocail – $250K buyout
Non-tender candidates: Geoff Geary, Chris Coste, Sampson, Paronto
Assuming Brocail's option is declined, the Astros use rookies at the two open position player spots and on the left side of the infield, and Geary, Coste, and Paronto are non-tendered, they'd have $66.4MM committed before arbitration raises to Quintero, Keppinger, Bourn, Pence, Rodriguez, Byrdak, and Sampson. Bourn and Pence are first-time arbitration players and Rodriguez had a stellar year, so the raises will be significant. I'll put the Astros around $80MM committed. GM Ed Wade on how the team's 2010 payroll will compare to 2009, courtesy of MLB.com's Brian McTaggart:
"Our payroll is in all likelihood going to be lower than it was this year. It could be appreciably lower, but we don't know until we sit down and get the actual numbers."
If payroll is sliced to $90-95MM, Wade would have $10-15MM to spend.
Talk is that the Astros could use rookies Manzella (shortstop) and Johnson (third base) as starters in 2010. Manzella hit .289/.339/.417 in 580 Triple A plate appearances after struggling at that level last year. He is a defense-first player, likely an easy out at the plate. Meanwhile Johnson hit .281/.323/.461 in 412 Triple A plate appearances at age 24. Thrusting him into a big league role would be a huge gamble as well. If contending in 2010 is the plan, the Astros need to upgrade the left side of their infield. Tejada could return and play third base, but he'd presumably want at least $7-8MM a year. The third base market has other interesting names such as Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa, Chone Figgins, Troy Glaus, and Juan Uribe.
With Moehler retained, the Astros' 2010 rotation could be set. Paulino is not guaranteed a spot, but he deserves one. Even with poor rotation depth, I think the Astros would be better-served spending most of their cash on a shortstop and/or third baseman. They probably cannot afford to allocate more than a few million toward a veteran starter, similar to last year's Mike Hampton signing for $2MM.
Jose De Jesus Ortiz's latest article at the Houston Chronicle covers the Astros' unsettled bullpen situation. Closer Jose Valverde is probably gone, and I can see the Astros preferring not to risk an arbitration offer. They'd like to bring LaTroy Hawkins back, but after a 2.13 ERA season he'll want more than this year's $3.5MM base. He also may be too pricey to sign and/or risk an arbitration offer. Wade figures to sign a few free agent veteran relievers one way or another.
Despite the griping about Berkman, a .399 OBP and .509 SLG is a very good year. Lee, Bourn, and Pence are solid hitters as well, but the contributions of these four could be nullified if Wade surrounds them with easy outs. The rotation has sleeper potential, though it lacks depth. The bullpen is a question mark. This is an unfortunate time for the Astros to be cutting payroll, because they could contend with the right free agent additions.
Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Astros. Their likely commitments for 2010:
C – Humberto Quintero – $610K+
C – J.R. Towles – $402K
1B – Lance Berkman – $14.5MM
2B – Kaz Matsui – $5MM
SS – Tommy Manzella – $400K
3B – Chris Johnson – $400K
IF – Jeff Keppinger – $428K+
IF – Edwin Maysonet – $400K
LF – Carlos Lee – $18.5MM
CF – Michael Bourn – $435K+
RF – Hunter Pence – $439K+
OF –
? –
SP – Roy Oswalt – $15MM
SP – Wandy Rodriguez – $2.6MM+
SP – Brian Moehler – $3MM
SP – Bud Norris – $400K
SP – Felipe Paulino – $405K
RP – Tim Byrdak – $1MM+
RP – Chris Sampson – $449K+
RP – Wesley Wright – $425K
RP – Jeff Fulchino – $400K
RP – Alberto Arias – $402K
RP – Sammy Gervacio – $400K
RP – Yorman Bazardo – $400K
Other commitments: Doug Brocail – $250K buyout
Non-tender candidates: Geoff Geary, Chris Coste, Sampson, Paronto
Assuming Brocail's option is declined, the Astros use rookies at the two open position player spots and on the left side of the infield, and Geary, Coste, and Paronto are non-tendered, they'd have $66.4MM committed before arbitration raises to Quintero, Keppinger, Bourn, Pence, Rodriguez, Byrdak, and Sampson. Bourn and Pence are first-time arbitration players and Rodriguez had a stellar year, so the raises will be significant. I'll put the Astros around $80MM committed. GM Ed Wade on how the team's 2010 payroll will compare to 2009, courtesy of MLB.com's Brian McTaggart:
"Our payroll is in all likelihood going to be lower than it was this year. It could be appreciably lower, but we don't know until we sit down and get the actual numbers."
If payroll is sliced to $90-95MM, Wade would have $10-15MM to spend.
Talk is that the Astros could use rookies Manzella (shortstop) and Johnson (third base) as starters in 2010. Manzella hit .289/.339/.417 in 580 Triple A plate appearances after struggling at that level last year. He is a defense-first player, likely an easy out at the plate. Meanwhile Johnson hit .281/.323/.461 in 412 Triple A plate appearances at age 24. Thrusting him into a big league role would be a huge gamble as well. If contending in 2010 is the plan, the Astros need to upgrade the left side of their infield. Tejada could return and play third base, but he'd presumably want at least $7-8MM a year. The third base market has other interesting names such as Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa, Chone Figgins, Troy Glaus, and Juan Uribe.
With Moehler retained, the Astros' 2010 rotation could be set. Paulino is not guaranteed a spot, but he deserves one. Even with poor rotation depth, I think the Astros would be better-served spending most of their cash on a shortstop and/or third baseman. They probably cannot afford to allocate more than a few million toward a veteran starter, similar to last year's Mike Hampton signing for $2MM.
Jose De Jesus Ortiz's latest article at the Houston Chronicle covers the Astros' unsettled bullpen situation. Closer Jose Valverde is probably gone, and I can see the Astros preferring not to risk an arbitration offer. They'd like to bring LaTroy Hawkins back, but after a 2.13 ERA season he'll want more than this year's $3.5MM base. He also may be too pricey to sign and/or risk an arbitration offer. Wade figures to sign a few free agent veteran relievers one way or another.
Despite the griping about Berkman, a .399 OBP and .509 SLG is a very good year. Lee, Bourn, and Pence are solid hitters as well, but the contributions of these four could be nullified if Wade surrounds them with easy outs. The rotation has sleeper potential, though it lacks depth. The bullpen is a question mark. This is an unfortunate time for the Astros to be cutting payroll, because they could contend with the right free agent additions.
Free Agent Market: Lefty Relievers
Lefty relievers are a popular offseason wish list item this year. Let's take a look at the free agent market.
- The group's ERA leader (1.50), Scott Eyre, is considering retirement. Mike Gonzalez is next at 2.42, though he may be seeking a closer job. John Grabow at 3.36 rounds out the top three.
- Gonzalez leads with a 10.9 K/9, followed by Darren Oliver at 8.01 and Ron Mahay at 7.51.
- Brian Shouse (club option) had the best control with a 2.25 BB/9. Then it's Oliver at 2.71 and Joe Beimel at 3.09.
- Grabow and Oliver led in home run prevention at 0.62 per nine. Eyre and Gonzalez were the toughest to hit.
- How about shutting down lefties? Shouse (.246), Eyre (.269), Horacio Ramirez (.288), Oliver (.295), and Beimel (.297) led in OBP against. Grabow (.284), Ramirez (.327), Eyre (.355), and Shouse (.373) led in SLG against. Combining the two, Grabow (.614), Ramirez (.615), Shouse (.619), and Eyre (.624) were your OPS against leaders. Will Ohman, injured much of the season, was excellent against lefties in 2008 (.571 OPS against).
- Shouse is the one true groundball artist of the group at 61.3%. He's an intriguing choice, but the 41-year-old tallied only 28 innings due to an elbow strain. The Rays have a $1.9MM club option with a $200K buyout for 2010. Grabow is a decent option, if not for his 5.0 BB/9. Ramirez was pummeled by righties but quietly dominated lefties in his short time with the Royals. He did not have the same success against southpaws in 2008, however.
- Projected Type A free agents: Oliver, Gonzalez, and Grabow. Type B: Shouse, Eyre, Beimel, and Ohman. Scott Schoeneweis and Ron Villone are represented by Scott Boras. Embree, Ohman, and Shouse have club options.