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Boston’s Roy Halladay Offer

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5:29pm: ESPN's Peter Gammons echoes Heyman's report, and adds that Josh Reddick is the positional prospect that would have gone to Toronto.

MONDAY, 3:01pm: So what did the Red Sox actually offer for Halladay?  SI's Jon Heyman heard Buchholz, Masterson, Bowden, Hagadone, and a positional prospect.  Should Ricciardi have pulled the trigger on this 5-for-1 blockbuster?

SUNDAY, 1:12pm: Amalie Benjamin of the Boston Globe reports that Epstein has denied the rumors. When asked if there was any truth to the rumored offer for Halladay, Epstein responded with a simple "Nope."

10:14am: Last month, Theo Epstein said Boston aggressively pursued Roy Halladay at the deadline and that their final offer was "probably the best offer [J.P. Ricciardi] received." According to Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun, that  may have been a 6-for-1 offer of Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Daniel Bard, Michael Bowden, Felix Doubront, and Nick Hagadone.

One National League scout is quoted having "zero idea why they didn't take the Boston offer." Elliott cites a Toronto scout who says the Jays didn't take the offer for two reasons: 1) They weren't confident Masterson would succeed as a starter, and 2) they were afraid of Halladay beating them in 2010.

The same scout is quoted, "We don't have a quality arm like Halladay," said the scout, "but I've seen four of those (Red Sox) arms and they're quality. Hit on three of six and you'd be fertile for a long time."

What do you think? Does this seem uncharacteristic of Theo Epstein?

Braves Have Interest In Tim Hudson Extension

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2:15pm: MLB.com's Mark Bowman talked to Braves GM Frank Wren, who said he'd like to have Hudson pitching in Atlanta for a long time.  Hudson's thoughts:

"I would be glad if they picked up the option.  But it's one of those things if they want to discuss not picking it up and maybe going a few years out at some kind of whatever hometown discount, that's something I'd obviously be willing to discuss with them."

9:49am: According to ESPN's Buster Olney:

The Braves are interested in discussing a contract extension with Tim Hudson, and if they can make that work, they presumably will somehow fold the $12MM 2010 option into that deal. This, of course, would free up a starting pitcher for Atlanta to trade.

As MLBTR readers learned in January, Hudson has the right to void the option if the Braves exercise it.  Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote at the time that the Braves "fully intend to exercise it, barring some unexpected turn of events."  Hudson had Tommy John surgery in August of '08, and he's been solid in two of his three starts this year.  However, he wouldn't get $12MM guaranteed for one year on the open market, and nine months later O'Brien's assertion seems less certain.  Hudson, as you might expect, would like the option picked up.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports addressed the Hudson situation on Wednesday.  Rosenthal also believed that he might prefer to just re-sign with the Braves.  He wondered if the Braves would then shop Javier Vazquez for a hitter.  Olney believes Atlanta would be more likely to trade another starter, Kenshin Kawakami for example.

I'm thinking something like two years, $15MM (plus incentives) would make sense for a Hudson extension.  I don't agree that the Braves should shop a starter if they re-sign him.  We have seen countless examples where a team had a starting pitching surplus on paper heading into the season, only to see it turn into a need within months.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Indians.  Their commitments for 2010:

C – Kelly Shoppach – $1.95MM+
C – Lou Marson – $400K
1B – Matt LaPorta – $400K
2B – Luis Valbuena – $400K
SS – Asdrubal Cabrera – $417K
3B – Jhonny Peralta – $4.6MM
1B/3B – Andy Marte – $400K
IF – Jason Donald – $400K
LF – Michael Brantley – $400K
CF – Grady Sizemore – $5.6MM
RF – Shin-Soo Choo – $420K
OF – Trevor Crowe – $400K
DH – Travis Hafner – $11.5MM

Other considerations: C – Wyatt Toregas – $400K, IF/OF – Chris Gimenez – $400K

SP – Jake Westbrook – $11MM
SP – Fausto Carmona – $4.9MM
SP – Justin Masterson – $416K
SP – Aaron Laffey – $409K
SP – David Huff – $400K

Other rotation candidates: Jeremy Sowers – $421K, Carlos Carrasco – $400K, Hector Rondon – $400K

RP – Kerry Wood – $10.5MM
RP – Chris Perez – $402K
RP – Rafael Perez – $437K+
RP – Tony Sipp – $400K
RP – Joe Smith – $428K
RP – Jensen Lewis – $419K
RP – Jess Todd/Adam Miller/Failed starter – $400K

Non-tender candidates: Shoppach

The Indians entered 2009 with an $81.6MM payroll, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.  For 2010 they have about $58MM committed, plus arbitration raises to Shoppach and Perez.  The Tribe could potentially spend around $20MM on new players without increasing the payroll, thanks to their veteran fire sale this year.

However, if fielding the best possible team in 2010 was the goal, the Indians wouldn't have traded Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez.  It would be inconsistent to sign free agents in an attempt to win the division next year.  The Indians should shop Shoppach, and non-tender him if they find no takers.  Moving Peralta's $4.85MM would be helpful.  Ditto for Wood's $10.5MM (assuming his 2011 option does not vest).  Westbrook and Hafner will hopefully build up value prior to summer 2010 trades.

Trading Sizemore does not make sense.  His value is at a low point, and he can be under control through 2012.  Even if the Indians concede 2010, Sizemore would be essential to winning the following two years.

Having shed Lee and Martinez, the Indians will no longer be the popular sleeper pick heading into 2010.  The trades brought in much-needed young pitching, but next year's rotation does not resemble that of a contender.

Odds & Ends: Pirates, Fielder, Nationals

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Links for Monday…

Free Agent Market: Third Basemen

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Next up in our look at the free agent market, the hot corner.

  • For OBP, Chone Figgins is your man (.401).  After him it drops to Adam Kennedy (.342).  Bounceback possibilities based on '08 OBPs: Jerry Hairston Jr. (.384), Mark DeRosa (.376), and Troy Glaus (.372).
  • Juan Uribe (.498 SLG) surprisingly leads free agent third basemen in slugging this year.  DeRosa (.439) also has pop.  Last year there was Hairston (.487), Glaus (.483), Melvin Mora (.483, club option), DeRosa (.481), Joe Crede (.460), and Adrian Beltre (.457).
  • Looking for defensive prowess?  UZR/150 points to traditionally well-regarded names: Crede, Figgins, and Beltre.  John Dewan of The Fielding Bible ranked Beltre as the game's best defensive third baseman heading into the season.  He ranked Pedro Feliz (club option) second and Crede third.
  • Beltre and Crede are represented by Scott Boras.  Both players showed only flashes of solid offense this year while dealing with injuries.  At 31 next year Beltre is on the younger side of the group.  He'd make an intriguing value buy for an NL club.  Uribe will also be 31 next year.  Bobby Crosby turns 30 in January.
  • Glaus is a comeback candidate, though he may not be able to play third base regularly given this year's shoulder injury.
  • Figgins contributes on both sides of the ball and is clearly the top free agent third baseman.  Beltre and Uribe figure to generate attention as well.  Figgins and Glaus currently profile as Type A free agents, while Mora, Beltre, DeRosa, and Feliz project as Bs.
  • Mora's $8MM club option should be declined by the Orioles, while the Phillies may exercise Feliz's $5MM option.
  • Miguel Tejada played third base in the World Baseball Classic this year, and has expressed a willingness to play there to remain with the Astros.  He'll be 36 in May, and has a .301/.332/.434 line in 600 plate appearances.

Previewing The Vladimir Guerrero Market

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Vladimir Guerrero earned over $80MM over the course of his last contract. He won't sign for nearly as much when he hits free agency again this winter, but he could appeal to clubs looking for a veteran bat. After all, Vladdy hasn't posted an OPS below .800 since 1996. This year, he's hitting .298/.338/.467, but his strikeout rate has risen and his walk rate has fallen. Guerrero remains the free-swinger he's always been; in fact, he swings at a higher percentage of pitches than any major leaguer with at least 250 plate appearances. 

He's 34 years old, but his legs are already starting to fail him. The one-time 40-steal man hasn't swiped more than five bags since 2006. His defense is fading, too, according to UZR/150. He's only played in the outfield twice this year, and for good reason. 

Now that he's essentially a DH, he'll be competing for jobs with Jim Thome, Hideki Matsui, Gary Sheffield and others. The Angels, Mariners, White Sox, Tigers and Blue Jays could all be among the teams with some interest in the former MVP this offseason. We won't likely know Vladdy's fate before then, since the Angels will wait until after the season before negotiating with any of their free agents-to-be.

For more on the situation, check out Bill Shaikin's article at the L.A. Times.  Shaikin explores whether Vlad would wear an Angels cap in the Hall of Fame, and how that might factor into the team's decision this winter.  He says it's "absolutely clear" Guerrero wants to stay.

Odds & Ends: Johnson, Dontrelle, Millwood

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Some links for the evening…

  • Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald hears that there's "some sentiment" within the Marlins organization toward offering Josh Johnson a long-term deal.
  • Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune wonders if the Tigers might decide to eat the $12MM they owe Dontrelle Willis.
  • The Rangers may skip Kevin Millwood's next start, according to MLB.com's Todd Wills. The 34-year-old is only 13 outs away from seeing his 2010 option kick in for $12MM. Millwood says he feels fine, so his option will likely vest whether he skips a start or not.
  • The Reds aren't making the playoffs this year, but, as manager Dusty Baker tells Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News, there's still "the personal stuff on the back of your bubblegum card" to play for.

Week In Review: 9/6/09 – 9/12/09

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Not the busiest week we've ever had here on MLBTR, but we heard a lot about some things to be watching for in the offseason. Let's take a look back:

  • Let's start with the big trade this week: In a September blockbuster, the Orioles acquired Sean Henn from the Twins for cash. Yeah, it's been a slow week for transactions.
  • Chone Figgins has been a popular topic this week. The versatile speedster will be highly coveted this winter, and while he may fit in with a number of teams (really, who couldn't use a .303/.401/.395 line and 40+ SBs?), don't rule out a return to Los Angeles. Figgins certainly hasn't. Ken Rosenthal sat down with Figgins recently, if you'd like more on the situation.
  • Another big name on the free agent market will be Jose Valverde. Valverde will test the free agent market this year, though reports that he's actually 15 months older than previously thought might be detrimental to the length of his contract. Lots of teams will be in the market for a closer; however old he really is, Valverde should see a multi-year deal.
  • Teams not wishing to pony up for Valverde may find Billy Wagner to be a cheaper (though also riskier) option. Wagner expects to turn down arbitration so he can find a team in need of a closer.
  • We heard this week that the Nationals are looking to improve… well, everything. They're looking to add two veteran arms to the rotation, improve the bullpen, and get stronger up the middle. They've asked Cristian Guzman to move to second base in an attempt to help on the last one. Mike Rizzo has his work cut out for him to say the least.
  • Josh Beckett's 2010 option vested this week, so he'll be back for at least one more year with the BoSox.
  • Meanwhile, another AL East pitcher may find himself looking for a new team this offseason. The Yankees could choose to nontender Chien-Ming Wang as a result of his injury problems. If they do, they could bring him back on a minor league deal to keep him off the 40-man roster while he rehabs. This will be an interesting situation to watch.
  • We've heard that the Cards want to re-sign Matt Holliday, but we also heard this week that they'll discuss an extension with free-agent-to-be Mark DeRosa. Is this too risky of a move given his eventual need for wrist surgery? Should they be focused only on Holliday?
  • It may just be talk, but Kevin Towers expects the Padres to surprise some people next year. Does the team's crop of young players such as Kyle Blanks, Mat Latos, and Everth Cabrera have some hope for 2010?
  • The Pads won't spend much on free agents, but remember that not all successful signings require millions of dollars. Here's a look at some of the best minor league deals from last offseason.
  • If you're wondering who's available this offseason, Tim covered the free agent markets for first basemen, second basemen, and shortstops this week. We've also got an update on the Elias Rankings, as well as a look at some borderline Type A/B free agents.
  • Tim's Offseason Outlook series this week include the Orioles and Pirates.

Hoffman Wants To Stay In Milwaukee

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Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com is reporting that Trevor Hoffman has enjoyed his first season with the Brewers, to the point where he'd like to sign on for a second go-around.

Hoffman, 43 in October, has said that everyone in Milwaukee has made him feel more than welcome, and that he doesn't want to go through the adjustment phase of joining a new organization again.

After spending 16 seasons with the Padres, Hoffman signed a one-year, $6MM contract with the Brewers this offseason. He's earning every penny of that, despite missing the first three weeks of the year. Hoffman has racked up 31 saves in 34 opportunities while posting a sparkling 2.00 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and holding opponents to just a .204 average. He's earned an additional $400K in incentives so far, and still has time left to earn more.

Hoffman's 585 career saves rank first all-time, and he's closing in on becoming the first to ever hit the 600 mark. It sounds like he'd like to hit that number and keep going; Hoffman says he wants to keep playing as long as he can contribute.

Perrotto’s Latest: Vazquez, Valverde, DeRosa, Pavano

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In today's column over at Baseball Prospectus, John Perrotto says nobody has been better at making deadline deals in the previous two seasons than Theo Epstein. I might agree but would love to hear some counter arguments.

As usual, Perrotto has his share of rumors from around the league:

  • The Braves need offense and are considering dealing Javier Vazquez to get it.
  • Don't expect Jose Valverde to return to Houston next season. He plans to test free agency and will likely find a better paycheck elsewhere.
  • The White Sox plan to re-sign Freddy Garcia to be their fifth starter.
  • The Cardinals would like to re-sign Mark DeRosa before he reaches free agency at the end of the season.
  • The Twins are planning an attempt to re-sign Carl Pavano, also a to-be free agent at season's end.
  • If the Nationals can acquire a shortstop in the offseason they would like Cristian Guzman to move to second base.

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