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Archives for September 2009

Free Agent Market: Starting Pitchers

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Today let's take a look at the free agent market for starting pitchers. 

  • ERA leaders: Randy Wolf (3.24), Joel Pineiro (3.24), John Lackey (3.56), Jarrod Washburn (3.78), and Jason Marquis (3.98). 
  • Prefer xFIP?  We've got Pineiro (3.69), Lackey (4.06), Wolf (4.27), Marquis (4.43), and Andy Pettitte (4.48).
  • Best strikeout rate (K/9): Rich Harden (10.9), Erik Bedard (9.8), John Smoltz (8.5), Randy Johnson (8.0), Lackey (7.2), Pettitte (7.0), Wolf (6.8), Doug Davis (6.5), and Carl Pavano (6.4).
  • Best control (BB/9): Pineiro (1.1, leads all of baseball), Smoltz (1.6), Pavano (1.7), Wolf (2.4), Lackey (2.4), Washburn (2.5), and Jon Garland (2.7).
  • Lowest home run rate (HR/9): Pineiro (0.31), Marquis (0.66), Tim Wakefield (0.71), Lackey (0.74), and Jose Contreras (0.87).
  • Best groundball rate: Pineiro (61.4%, leads all of baseball), Marquis (55.2%), and Looper (46.8%).
  • Lowest hit rate (H/9): Bedard (7.0), Wolf (7.5), Harden (7.8), Washburn (8.2), Lackey (8.7), and Pettitte (8.8).  Along those same lines, your BABIP leaders: Washburn (.254), Wolf (.256), Marquis (.285), and Braden Looper (.286).
  • Innings leaders: Marquis (206), Wolf (203), Pineiro (203), Garland (194.6), Pettitte (184.3), Pavano (183), and Looper (182.6).
  • Most pitches thrown: Davis (3253), Wolf (3112), Pettitte (3096), Marquis (3085), Garland (3084), and Looper (3075).
  • Highest average fastball velocity: Brad Penny (94.0), Harden (92.1), Padilla (91.9), Contreras (91.7), Sidney Ponson (91.7), Lackey (91.6), Bedard (91.5), Todd Wellemyer (91.5), and Smoltz (91.5).
  • Under 30 years old in 2010: Daniel Cabrera, Harden, Brett Myers, and Mark Prior.
  • Scott Boras represents Washburn and Rodrigo Lopez.
  • Projected Type A free agents: Lackey, Harden, and Wolf.  Projected Bs: Pettitte, Wakefield, Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, Brandon Webb, Pineiro, Garland, Vicente Padilla, Looper, Marquis, Davis, and Wellemeyer.
  • Pitchers who were solid in 2008: Ben Sheets, Webb, Wellemeyer, Bedard, Duchscherer, and Johnson.  Freddy Garcia, Tim Hudson, and Myers are other interesting injury bounceback candidates.
  • Smoltz, Penny, and Padilla have been somewhat effective upon moving to the NL.
  • Pitchers with 2010 options: Cliff Lee (an obvious choice to exercise at $8MM), Garcia, Garland, Hudson, Looper, Brian Moehler, Wakefield, and Webb.

Pirates Claim Anthony Claggett

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The Pirates claimed pitcher Anthony Claggett off waivers from the Yankees, according to a press release.  The Yanks had designated him for assignment ten days ago.  Claggett, a 25-year-old righty, was acquired by the Yanks from Detroit in the Gary Sheffield deal in November of '06.  Upon reaching Triple A this year, Claggett's strikeout rate took a large drop to 4.7 per nine innings.

Offseason Storylines

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Last winter's biggest storylines involved Jake Peavy, Mark Teixeira, Manny Ramirez, C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Junichi Tazawa, and Rafael Furcal.  What will MLBTR be buzzing about this offseason?

  • Aroldis Chapman, a 21 year-old Cuban defector, is expected to become a free agent in a few weeks.  The hard-throwing lefty may inspire a good old-fashioned Red Sox-Yankees bidding war, with the price beginning around $40MM.  Dominican shortstop Miguel Angel Sano is another hot topic – is he really 16?
  • Will Scott Boras secure a $100MM contract for left fielder Matt Holliday?  At this point it's unclear which teams would be open to such a commitment, but the Cardinals will try to lock him up.  Jason Bay, also a free agent, is more than a year older than Holliday.  How will his contract compare?
  • Would Manny Ramirez, another Boras client, dare turn down his $20MM player option?  He's had a typical Manny season aside from a 50-game suspension for use of a banned substance.
  • Will the Mets reduce payroll for 2010, despite multiple needs?  How will the Rangers sale play out?  Will the Cubs' new ownership be willing to spend? 
  • The Angels have many prominent free agents, including Vladimir Guerrero, John Lackey, Chone Figgins, and Bobby Abreu.  Lackey is the best available pitcher; will he command Burnett money?
  • Joe Mauer's contract is up after the 2010 season, which is also the inaugural year for the Twins' new ballpark.  Will the team pony up a massive extension for the MVP candidate?
  • Roy Halladay figures to be a regular presence in the rumor mill, after the Blue Jays shopped him this summer.  Other trade candidates include Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Felix Hernandez, Josh Johnson, Adrian Gonzalez, Javier Vazquez, and Milton Bradley.
  • Free agent bargains such as Bobby Abreu and Randy Wolf didn't sign until February last time around.  Will teams be more inclined to play the waiting game?
  • The NL West has three free agent GMs: Dan O'Dowd, Brian Sabean, and Ned Colletti (mutual option).
  • Thanks to the MLBTR writing staff and our Twitter followers for many of these storylines.

Mike Rizzo Chats With Fans

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Nationals GM Mike Rizzo chatted with fans at MLB.com today.  Let's take a look.

  • When asked about bringing in an impact player this winter, Rizzo replied, "The Lerner family has given us ample resources to improve the club in any way we see fit."  So far we've heard about the Nats' plans to upgrade at shortstop, catcher, the rotation, and the bullpen.
  • When asked if he'd try to extend Adam Dunn's contract, Rizzo praised Dunn and called him a cornerstone, but did not answer the question directly.  Dunn is signed through 2010.
  • Stephen Strasburg will have to earn a rotation spot with the big club.

Stark On Braves, Hardy, Uggla

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Let's check out the hot stove highlights from Jayson Stark's latest Rumblings and Grumblings column at ESPN.

  • The free agent market for super-utility men is strong, with Chone Figgins, Mark DeRosa, and Jerry Hairston Jr.  Stark says the Cards will let DeRosa test the market, despite the recent extension chatter.  Stark talked to an NL exec who prefers Figgins to DeRosa, which seems logical.
  • Stark finds it "all but certain" that the Braves bring Tim Hudson back for 2010, but they won't be shopping Javier Vazquez.  He considers the Braves unlikely to re-sign free agent relievers Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez.  If that's the case, Frank Wren will need to bring in some kind of late-inning arm.
  • Expect a strong market for Brewers shortstop J.J. Hardy, despite his disappointing '09 season.  Which teams do you see in the mix?
  • Stark sees the Marlins keeping only one of Dan Uggla, Cody Ross, and Jorge Cantu, who are all due raises through arbitration. 
  • Stark says the Astros don't have a shopping list yet for their next manager, but count on GM Ed Wade to be meticulous.  The 'Stros prefer someone with experience, leading Stark to join in on the Jim Fregosi speculation.

Stark On Bradley & Zambrano

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ESPN.com's Jayson Stark hears that the Cubs will likely try to move Milton Bradley for another "problem" player this offseason. Eric Byrnes, Pat Burrell and Bronson Arroyo haven't been discussed, but they are the kind of expensive player the Cubs might consider trading Bradley away for. There will likely be takers for the unpredictable outfielder, despite his year-long struggle in Chicago.

Stark hears that Bradley's teammate, Carlos Zambrano, is far less likely to be traded. Baseball men say the Cubs have never shown any interest in dealing the big righty, so he's likely to be their Opening Day starter once again in 2010.

Odds & Ends: Redmond, Mauer, Bay

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Another round of links…

  • Backup catcher Mike Redmond wants to re-sign with the Twins this offseason, according to Sid Hartman of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Rookie Jose Morales has been backing Joe Mauer  up lately, so the Twins have options behind the plate.
  • Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press says the Twins "are expected" to try to sign Joe Mauer for about $120MM over seven years after this season. If Mauer hits free agency after next season, he'd probably see multiple offers worth more than $120MM.
  • The Red Sox will have an opening in left field after the season and Curt Schilling knows how he'd attempt to fill it. He said on WEEI's The Dennis & Callahan Show that he'd rather re-sign Jason Bay than pursue Matt Holliday because Bay has proven he can play in Boston.
  • ESPN.com's Keith Law reports that the D'Backs are about to sign their first European player. Andrea Pizziconi, a 17-year-old Italian, has a "promising" slider and may develop into a four-pitch pitcher. 

Odds & Ends: Braves, Astros, Valentine, Baez

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Some links for the morning… 

Jermaine Dye’s Future With The White Sox

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THURSDAY: Dye told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune that he "definitely" hopes to finish his career with the White Sox. The outfielder, who homered twice last night, praised Chicago's fans, his teammates and the club's front office.

TUESDAY: The White Sox are unlikely to re-sign outfielder Jermaine Dye for the 2010 season, according to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times.  Dye faces a $12MM mutual option, which won't merit consideration for the Sox.  A new contract at half that amount would be a tough sell, in my opinion.  It's been a strange season for the 35-year-old – he was very good in the season's first three months, OK in July, and brutal in August and September.  He has no explanation for the prolonged slump, which caused him to drop from Type A to B in the Elias rankings.

It would be dangerous to suggest Dye is done based on roughly 175 plate appearances.  His bat is worth risking a few million bucks, though his right field defense has been consistently awful.  Unfortunately it's a crowded market for designated hitters.

Odds & Ends: White Sox, Mets, Millwood, Marquis

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Another round of links…

  • According to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times, the entire White Sox coaching staff, including hitting coach Greg Walker, pitching coach Don Cooper, bench coach Joey Cora and first base coach Harold Baines, received contract extensions Wednesday afternoon that will keep them all with the club through 2011.
  • The Dallas Morning News' Tom Cowlishaw believes Kevin Millwood's $12 million option for 2010, which vested Monday, is a fine deal.  "If you're general manager Jon Daniels or team president Nolan Ryan or manager Ron Washington and you're going to be judged next season by how much your team lives up to this overhyped notion that 2010 is the Rangers' year," Cowlishaw writes, "you need Kevin Millwood on that wall."
  • According to MLB.com's Carrie Muskat (via Twitter), Cubs players didn't find out about Milton Bradley's apology until his statement was released to the media Wednesday afternoon.  That certainly won't help the level of perceived sincerity.
  • Chip Bailey of the Houston Chronicle takes an early look at the Astros' plans for the upcoming offseason.  We're not expecting big things.
    Troy Renck of the Denver Post gathered a reaction Wednesday from Jason Marquis on Jeff Francoeur's assumption that the free agent right-hander "would love to" pitch for the Mets in 2010.  “I hope there are a lot of teams that want a guy that can win 15 games and work 200 innings,” Marquis said.
  • As Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports, manager Jerry Manuel acknowledged Wednesday that the Mets need to add a reliable veteran catcher this offseason.  If not, they'll head into the 2010 season with Omir Santos and Josh Thole as their Opening Day backstops.

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