Links for Thursday…
- ESPN's Jorge Arangure tweets that Jose Julio Ruiz has changed agents, which will likely complicate any negotiations. The Red Sox were reported hot on the Cuban defector's trail.
- Tim Marchman of SI.com ranks MLB's 30 general managers, from Andrew Friedman to Dayton Moore.
- Moore tells Doug Tucker of the AP that he's confident he'll continue to build the team's farm system. The Royals have tripled their budget in Latin America under Moore.
- Stephania Bell of ESPN.com explains the injury risks that come with Billy Wagner, Troy Glaus, Takashi Saito and Tim Hudson, four players the Braves signed or extended this offseason.
- I've ranked the American League offenses over at RotoAuthority, using CHONE projections and the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool.
- Jack Curry tweets that no one has called the Yankees yet about Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre, and GM Brian Cashman won't deal until late spring anyway.
- Milton Bradley told Tyler Kepner of the New York Times that "obviously, it was something with Chicago, not me." Bradley says the Cubs tried to make him a player he's not, expecting 30 home runs.
- Cubs manager Lou Piniella said on ESPN's Waddle & Silvy show that he'll determine his future after the season.
That can’t be accurate! The Boston Globe insists that the Red Sox offense this season is terrible and will absolutely fall apart with Jason Bay!
baaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahaha….
ah, sometimes you just have to laugh at how utterly misguided, narcissistic, and confused some professional athletes can be.
Hey milton, if you ever come back to chicago we will be waiting
It also wasn’t him it was Montreal, Cleveland, Los Angeles, Oakland, San Diego, Arlington, and soon it’ll be not him but Seattle.
My dad one subtly hinted at the idea of Bradley in pinstripes, back in ’08 when the offense was struggling.
It was the closest I ever came to striking my father with cruel intent.
Bradley just needs to go away.
Ah but Bradley doesn’t just get on all those teams by himself. If he’s going to “go away” teams need to stop signing him. Caveat emptor….
A sad, but true fact.
I’m just glad one more team was willing to try!
Well it’s been not so subtly hinted on this site a few times. Seriously can anyone imagine the mental breakdown Bradley would have playing with the yanks? Imagine his first trip to Boston…
“‘The fans of Boston are racist for booing me so loudly.”
“Mr. Bradley, are you aware of the intensity of the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry?”
“The fans of Boston are even more racist with that added in now. They hate black people and stripes.”
Yes, I think he would be that stupid.
In all honesty, it’s time for a redemption story for Bradley. He’s dug so deep that its very similiar to John Rocker at this point. I’m serious, it’s time for a selfish human being that is in the public eye, very Bradley-esque, to redeem themselves not only with MLB, owners, fans, but with their own outlook on life. That would be great for the new direction the M’s are moving this offseason.
While I won’t argue that the M’s are a good team to try and accomplish that with, I say wishful thinking on your part, as of right now, that is.
The guy had a career worst year. Although, yes, it is Milton Bradley, the upside is completely and totally attainable. M’s are loaded with leadership and tons of OBP. The stage is already being set…
I actually meant that a Josh Hamilton type of redemption story would be nice, but a Terrell Owens tearful cry defending Tony Romo seems more likely.
I agree with you on the second bit. But the reason why I question the upside is because the success came in Arlington. Outside of that ballpark, he’s been pretty average/below average.
LOL…that about sums it up for him. I just shake my head when Seattle fans think Griffey will take him under his wing and everything will be okay. It isn’t that simple. Bradley’s narcissistic. It’s always about him. It’s never his fault. Griffey can’t fix that. Bradley will be Bradley. It’s just a matter of whether Seattle can tolerate him long enough for him to make it through the year without becoming a distraction.
I still think Seattle got the better end of the trade in dumping Silva, but yeah… the breakdown of Milton Bradley is as inevitable as death and taxes.
It depends on how you look at it. If it’s Bradley for Silva then, yeah. Silva stinks. But the Cubs had no plans to open the season with Bradley and still managed to pawn him off and pick up 9M in the process. Without that money, the Cubs couldn’t fit Byrd and Nady on their 2010 payroll…They should easily surpass Bradley’s production from last year. Both teams got what they wanted. The Ms get a volatile, but talented player at reduced financial risk (small enough where he can be released if need be) and the Cubs get money used to get themselves their two biggest needs — a centerfielder and a big bat off the bench. If by some miracle Silva becomes useful, that’s just a bonus. No one’s expecting anything from him this year.
There is a big part of me that just wants Silva to be awful in ST becuase you know any small hint of success means they are going consider him for the #5 spot. I don’t think they have the stones to just release him before the season but if he is ineffective in middle relief they may just do it eventuually.
Yeah, me too! I don’t usually root against Cubs but I hope Silva pitches like he’s capable (which is horribly bad) this spring so the Cubs have no choice but to release him. We’ve got a lot of young arms who can do much better than him in relief.
I just don’t see the Cubs releasing Silva unless he has a 10 ERA going into June. They still owe him $16M one way or another.
You’re probably right. But if it were me, I’d release him. If I’m the owner, I figure I have the choice to either pay Silva 8M to pitch middle relief or 8.4M to release him and replace him with a promising rookie like John Gaub. I’d go with the latter. That being said, I’m not the owner and it’s not my money! You also have to factor in Piniella who mentions everyday how he needs “veterans” in his bullpen so, in the end, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Silva mopping up or, worse, the Cubs giving him a few starts as the #5 guy. I’ve been a Cub fan too long to be shocked if the Cubs do something ridiculous.
I thought you were a White Sox fan
I’m a fan of both teams. I’m a Cub fan because I grew up on the north side and I’m a Sox fan because my wife is a huge fan…we split the games we go to each year, so the Sox just sort of grew on me!
That, sir, is an impressive and great marriage ya got going.
It’s tough for a Yankee/Red Sox marriage type thing, but I can easily see it as tougher for Cubs/White Sox. That is probably just as if not more intense. Just doesn’t get as much national attention.
LOL! It takes a lot to overcome an intense rivalry like the Cubs/Sox! It’s pretty fun when they play each other. She’ll call me from work the minute after a Sox victory, but becomes suspiciously interested in other subjects when it’s the other way around! So I have to ask her (innocently, of course) what the score of the game was that day.
The rivalry is intense when they play each other, but, in general, Cub fans are doting fans. They’re too busy adoring the Cubs and they don’t care much for what the Sox are doing until they play each other. Sox fans, on the other hand, are as happy when the Cubs lose as when the Sox get victory. They root against the Cubs 24/7. I imagine it may have been something like that with NY/Bos until Boston won a WS. Boston was the “little brother” in terms of championships and had that chip on their shoulder. Whereas now that rivalry has evened out a little with Boston, winning championships of their own and both teams vying for top players. In Chicago, it isn’t about championships (unfortunately), it’s about attention. The Cubs get the media attention in Chicago, get better TV ratings, sell more tickets and merchandise, etc. and Sox fans can’t stand it because this holds true even when the Cubs stink and the Sox are winning. Even their WS championship didn’t garner as much attention as they would have liked and, over the years really has become sort of forgotten (until Sox fans remind Cub fans, of course!) Nothing would mortify Sox fans more than the way this city would erupt if the Cubs were ever to break their 101 year slump! And I imagine I’d probably have to sleep on the couch for a while 🙂
Then here is hoping for a 10 ERA in June 🙂
It remains to be seen how a ricketts owned team will handle this
I’m giving you good odds on a 10 ERA or greater in June for Silva 😉
Of course there have been dozens of pitchers who’ve been helped by a move to the NL. Though Silva would have been better off not moved to a hitters park.
Every Year the Angels offense and record are predicted to be significantly lower than the previous year and every year it is wrong. Look for the Angels to be the 3rd best offense and win 93. Again.
For those curious …
The Angels were projected to win 85 games last year according to Chone. They had a 3% chance to win the 97 games that they actually won. When you factor in that they lost significant time to injuries to Lackey, Escobar, Santana, Shields, Vlad, Adenhart, Hunter and Rivera it makes the number look even more crazy. This was clearly a case of the projection system simply not properly evaluating the talent. Guess I’m not shocked by the lack of respect they are getting this year either. Is losing Figgins really going to cost them a half run/game?
Here’s how the AL West shaped up (Chone/Actual/Exceeded Wins )
Angels – 85-77 / 97-65 / +12
Rangers – 72-90 / 87-75 / +15
Mariners – 78-84 / 85-77 / +7
A’s – 81-81 / 75-87 / -4
The projection system shorted the AL West by 30 wins.
Compare that to the AL East:
Yankees – 97-65 / 103-59 / +6
Red Sox – 96-66 / 95-67 / -1
Rays – 89-73 / 84-78 / -5
Jays – 75-87 / 75-87 / 0
O’s – 74-88 / 64-98 / -10
The AL East was overstated by 10 wins.
Finally, the AL Central …
Twins – 79-83 / 87-76 / +8
Tigers – 85-77 / 86-77 / +1
WS – 73-89 / 79-83 / +6
Indians – 90-72 / 65-97 / -35
Royals – 72-90 / 65-97 / -7
Net difference is -27 wins.
On a whole the AL East and AL Central were fairly accurate (exception being Cleveland). However, the AL West was totally wrong.
I wish this was a recent trend. Unfortunately, the AL West just doesn’t get it’s just due. I’ve stopped paying attention to these projection systems because they have proven time and time again to be nothing more than educated guesses. Its fun to look at and debate but the actual value is pretty low.
Great analysis.
I think projections need to be taken in context. They are, simply, a “likely outcome if nothing else changes”. But obviously, things change. Owners, managers, and players see the direction things are going, and react. For example, the Indians fall out of contention, so they go into sell mode, and it throws April 1st projections out the window.
Projections, like all statistics, can be useful if properly understood and applied. But only as one mere tool in the arsenal.
Tim, you have to be kidding with Boston at #2.
They ranked third last season, their home/road splits were awful, and they just replaced their most productive hitter by a mile with Mike Cameron.
Name me another AL team likely to score more runs than the Sox. And I’m not talking just “it could happen if the stars align etc,” I’m talking a team that in all probability will outscore the Sox outside of the Yankees. There simply isn’t one. Let’s take into account that, despite losing Bay, they gained a full season of Martinez over Varitek (Which essentially put it as a wash) and despite being a an average shortstop, that position is upgraded by virtue of having someone other than Lugo. That aside, they’ve still got one of the more productive first top and middle lineups in the game. Their offense is at least as good as last season and quite probably better overall. Every single analyst worth a damn has pointed this out over and over, what mental deficiency do you have that keeps you from noticing the obvious?
Well, for shortstop I think you also mean someone other than Lowrie or Green (who were the main shortstops for Boston last year), but actually either example works.
I’m really really excited for the Red Sox this year. We’ve been without cable the last couple of years, preferring to listen on the radio or watch Gameday online, but this year I’ve lobbied to get cable again, because I am just so excited to see this team play. The offense doesn’t have a big bopper in the middle, which makes people nervous, but I think if everyone stays healthy and a couple guys make modest comebacks (I’m looking at you, Ortiz and Beltre), this could be one of the best top to bottom offenses in baseball. Add to that one of the best top to bottom rotations, and this could be scary. Again, no clear ace (well, Lester), and no clear #4 hitter, but EXTREMELY solid throughout.
Twins.
Ellsbury over span but not by much
Pedroia over hudson
Vmart under mauer and it’s not even close
Youk under morneau
Ortiz under cuddyer
Drew equal kubel
Beltre less than or equal to delmon youNg
After that is mostly toss-ups with cameron vs hardy and Scutaro vs punto
That was the only other team I could think of too. Depending on how that new park plays, the Twins could have a scary offense this year. If their pitching holds up they will be a great team.
oh yeah and I think overall in the majors the RS would be #4-6
1)yankees
2)phillies
3)cardinals/twins
4)cardinals/twins
5)rays/red sox
Just for fun…
Ellsbury = bartlett
Pedroia equal Crawford
Vmart under longoria
Youk over pena
Ortiz under zobrist
Drew over upton
Beltre so so to burrell
After that, toss ups with cameron, scutaro, shoppach and so forth
Angels, Rangers, and M’s have a chance, but it all depends if the M’s OBP plan works, if Wood is really as good as they say, and if Arlington can continue to bump up their offensive stats.
My question is: what is the weather like on Milton Bradley’s planet and is there *any* chance there is intelligent life there? MB himself seems a bad omen on this point.
I love how people have been saying the sox offense is the kiss of death for the team, and yet they are on the heels of the yankees in second place in the AL, and maybe the majors, maybe the phillies are in second though im not sure
Lights out pitching is carrying alot of that weight. The offense needs improvements yes, but who knows, we will see.
I have absolutely no respect Marchman after reading that article, ranking Jack Z high and Tony Reagins so low made me want to vomit.
Agreed!
In what world is Hendry a better GM than Frank Wren.. or 10ish other GM’s?
I stopped reading after Brian Cashman was listed at 3. How hard is it to have all the money in the world and get to go shopping????? Signing CC , Tex and Burnett to inflated contracts doesn’t make you a good GM..IF they would have landed Halladay then he would have earned some respect from me.. Also , what has Theo Epstein done so great? Lackey?
Yea, blow up the farm system for one player. Great idea.
whats their to blow up? technically, joba and hughes are no longer farm-hands.
that leaves montero and romine..maybe McCallister as worth mentioning.
i doubt that would get the deal done because Jays will ask for more if its a division rival.
What I found strange was how, with GMs like Neal Huntington, he rated them near the bottom of the pack, even while giving them mostly a positive review. It’s like he commends them on rebuilding and knows they know they aren’t competing yet, but they are clearly working towards competing, and still ranks them low because the club performed poorly. It ended up being good teams at the top, bad teams (even if the GM is doing a good job) at the bottom, with the very bottom of the list being the GMs he actually thought were bad at their job. Pretty inconsistent article I thought.
Switching agents must be the cool thing nowadays.
so we needed a detailed article to tell us that braves are extremely injury-proned?
and what is with glaus? what a horrible signing that was in the first place but this dude comes to camp in no where near good shape… hes fat now and has zero muscle mass as far as i can tell. what has this guy been doing for the last two years? nothing obviously. i figured he would have come to camp in terrific shape seeing as this season could make or break the rest of his career, financially speaking of course. dude kind of looks like a slob… instead of like a first baseman. dont know how we keep him healthy… but we have to pray for monster seasons from chipper, mcann, yunel and heyward (which is not really plausible) to keep pace offensively with other teams in our division.
Actually, Bradley’s 2009 season line was EXACTLY what I expected.
I also completely expected Bradley to make charges of “racism” at several points down the line.
Also, in what nonsensical world can Jim Hendry be rated higher than John Mozeliak???
Anyone who gives 5 million dollars to Aaron Miles to play baseball should be automatically transferred to the position of “cotton candy vendor.” ……………………….. The Aaron Miles signing was honestly just the crowning-icing of Hendry’s patheticness. All sorts of examples are piling at the top of my head at the moment: trading Nolasco, 40 million for Fukudome, the Zambrano and Bradley contracts. I could literally go on all day. He honestly deserves to be rated right next to Dayton Moore, except the thing is that he’s had the luxury of being able to throw money at problems to partially disguise his incompetence and buy some wins.
Sure, Hendry has stepped into some decent stuff like Reed Johnson, and A-Ram, but every team has its fortuitous deals as a natural course of things. The dozens of nonsensical moves like trading DeRosa to make room for Bradley are inexcusable. More evidence that some players should never be granted the security of a large, multi-year deal.
This is saying nothing of Soriano, which could soon become the worst contract in the game, on the books for the Cubs.
And Walt Jocketty WAS one of the best GM’s in the early 2000’s, but he’s been using the same tired game and strategies which are no longer relevant or effective in the 2010’s. The Reds would be behooved to remove both Jocketty and Baker in favor of some more dynamic and younger individuals with fresh ideas.
I don’t if Mozeliak should be so far down that list of GM’s. Sure he hasn’t had to do a ton but as last year proved, he’s willing to make some moves if push comes to shove.
Marchman’s list was terrible. First, he penalizes a GM like Colletti for having cheap ownership, even putting Jed Hoyer, who’s done nothing, ahead of him. Jon Daniels has also had a limited budget, and is ranked 8th despite winning nothing. If you want to rank the MLB owners, then yeah, McCourt ranks at or near the bottom. But despite having a cheap owner in a big market, Colletti has made solid moves for low cost. The big money moves he did make blew up in his face, but he’s still gotten the Dodgers to the postseason several times.
But then Marchman also penalizes Jocketty for having Pujols and LaRussa on his team. Huh? I’m by no means a Cardinals fan, but without having a budget close to the Yankees and Red Sox, the Cards were pretty consistent winners with Jocketty.
I think the season needs to start quickly so all these bored sportswriters will have some reality to write about rather than use their poor imaginations.