The Offseason In Review series is complete, and now the NL West steps up to the plate for a series of questions.
- Did the Diamondbacks upgrade in going from Max Scherzer to the more expensive Edwin Jackson? Will Brandon Webb supply five strong months and justify his $6.5MM net option price?
- Was it necessary for the Rockies to sign Rafael Betancourt and Huston Street to multiyear deals, since they controlled both for 2009 already? Are the Rockies sending mixed messages at the catcher position, signing Miguel Olivo weeks after extending Chris Iannetta?
- Was the risk of the Dodgers offering Randy Wolf arbitration worth the possible reward of the #36 and #65 picks in the 2010 draft? Can Vicente Padilla fill Wolf's shoes? Did Jamey Carroll's two-year deal represent the best use of $3.85MM?
- Could the Padres have added offense and made a legitimate run at a 2010 pennant? On the flip side, would seriously shopping Adrian Gonzalez during the offseason have maximized the return?
- Did the signings of Mark DeRosa, Freddy Sanchez, Bengie Molina, Juan Uribe, and Aubrey Huff for $34.75MM improve the Giants' offense?
So far so good for the Giants!
just seeing them get hits in the 2nd inning with guys in scoring position and getting guys over. not to mention lincecum getting the bunt down on 1 pitch. that was amazing to see since it seemed like it didn’t happen at all in 09.
Answers …
Diamondbacks – Bought high on Jackson. Not a good move. Webb only makes sense if he comes back healthy AND resigns with the club. Otherwise, they should have picked up the option and moved him.
Rockies – No harm in the extensions. I’m confused as well by their catching situation.
Dodgers – Screwed up on Wolf. Padilla is a chump. And Jamey Carroll was signed for too much. For being on such a tight budget Padilla and Carroll were ill-advised decisions.
Padres – Cross their fingers that Gonzalez stays healthy and mashes. Should have traded him over the off-season. Now, if he regresses OR gets injured the Padres miss out on their most valuable trade piece. Pads weren’t going to compete in 2010 anyway. Should have maximized their return and started the full-blown rebuild process.
Giants – Typical Sabean off-season. Overpaying for over the hill veterans. Sure hope that Panda can repeat his 09 season or this team will be in deep, deep trouble.
you wrong on almost all of these, except for the dodgers. the giants didn’t overpay for anybody. the padres have no reason to trade him until they get a massive offer similar to the halladay offer.
Really. The Giants spent their money wisely?
Huff – value in 2009 – NEGATIVE $4m. Had an outstanding 08 campaign. Three previous seasons posted a value between $1m and $4m. As far as I can recall there wasn’t another team offering a ML contract. Yet, the Giants sign him to a $3m contract. Not horrible but not impactful.
DeRosa – 2/$12 wasn’t terrible. I guess. He was worth $7m last year and is coming off pretty major surgery. If healthy, DeRosa was signed to about his market value. If injuries crop up it will be a bad deal. And again, what was the competition? Maybe I’m missing something but I don’t recall any teams offering 2 year deals to DeRosa coming off surgery.
Molina – Only competition came from the Mets (whom he clearly did not want to play for). In a vacuum it wasn’t a horrible deal. However, when you have an A prospect twiddling his thumbs in AAA this move just didn’t make any sense. Could have brought up Posey and signed one of 5 or 6 insurance backstops for $1m.
Uribe – Had a career year last season. Averaged a value of about $1m/season for the 3 preceding years. If you get the 2009 version then this is a great signing. If you get the guy who played the 3 previous seasons then it’s not much of a deal.
Sanchez – Already cost you the 2nd highest rated pitching prospect in the farm. Throw on 2 years for a guy that seems to always get nicked up. That said, I actually like Sanchez – this move you had to make since you traded away a pitching prospect to get him.
The original question was how well the Giants spent their FA money. For $35m they could have done much better. The Giants were like a lot of clubs. Sure, the signings COULD work out. If everyone stays healthy AND Huff hits like it’s 2008, AND Uribe hits like it’s 2009 then these will be great signings. However, this is a group that is injury prone on the downside of their career. The odds of the stars aligning just right are pretty slim IMO.
The Giants could have done a lot better that is for sure, Huff and Molina for the most part were unnecessary, although considering other offers lesser catchers nabbed this past offseason the Giants didn’t do terrible when they re-signed Molina. DeRo and Uribe were good deals, both can play all over the infield and they have offensive value. They weren’t great deals but they were good.
The Sanchez signing was bad though. The trade was bad enough to begin with, but after this season the Giants should have just cut their losses and let him walk. He is already out till May and will probably miss more than his fair share of games throughout the season.
What Olivo does for the Rox, is add another quality bench player to the team. Olvio’s addition just adds to the deepest bench in baseball. Before the year it was said that Olvio and Iannetta would split time b/c Iannetta had such a rough yr at the plate last yr, hence Yorvit starting in the second half over iannetta…So i would call Olivo more of a security blanket more than anything.
I don’t doubt that the D’backs are going to end up regretting the Jackson/Scherzer trade. They’re paying more for less and they made the trade willingly.
It’s obvious that the Dodger divorce is having an affect on the team, the risk of having Wolf accept arbitration was likely the reason they didn’t offer. Assuming they would have offered if the teams future wasn’t up in the air that is.
There was a blurb on some website about the Dodgers staff, don’t remember which, but they pointed out there’s only been 2 teams that have won with a pitching staff that’s anchored by guys as young as Kershaw and Billingsley. I think it was the 86 Mets and the 03 Marlins (Before anyone reminds me of Padilla and Kuroda, they are the #3 and #4 pitchers). Kind makes me wonder if the Dodgers screwed the pooch with their offseason. They have a decent team… but the Giants and Rockies will give them a war all the way and unless Jimenez breaks a leg I don’t see the Dodgers making it on their current pitching staff.
Same staff minus Wolf. Team was second in FIP and First in ERA I believe. I am more worried about the bullpen, the rotation will get a upgrade midseason. Hopefully that upgrade will be Withrow.
I hope he isnt up midseason. I want the Dodgers to give him all the time he needs, because I dont want another Edwin Jackson… and I think they will. He probably spends all of the year in AA and may get a Sept callup..
My response to that is how many teams have had two arms that young that are that good? Kershaw has 4 pitches at 22! Billingsley had been the best pitcher every year on the Dodgers since he came up, but a bad playoff series and a hamstring injury that he seems fully recovered from(he had a 1.8 ERA going into his last ST start, with very few walks compared to Ks). But, lets forget what he did as a prospect and that last 3 years in the majors because he had a bad second half, because of injury…
One of the most-unbiased Dodger sites I have found is MOKM, written by Kensai(aka Chad). He did an offensive projection for the team, and came up with over 800 runs this team will score. This team needs to have a solid season from Kuroda(and when he is healthy, he is one of the best #3s in the game) and a 4.50 ERA from Padilla, and we are fine. Padilla will have up and down games all year, but he will be a solid #4(no matter who Torre starts on opening day, Padilla is the 4th starter, and could be the 5th if Haeger has a good year).
Overall, we lost Randy Wolf. Do you think the deal he got was a good deal, considering his age and how he magically had a career year? I dont. Given that our team was 1st in ERA and second in FIP last year, and that Padilla could put up similar numbers to what we would expect from Wolf at 1/2 the cost, I dont know why so many are worried about the pitching.
One final note, because I know someone will say something about depth. How many teams have 3 pitchers that could step in the rotation right now but are in AAA, while also having a top prospect that could have a Sept impact? Not many…
You only lost Wolf after a season where you barely squeaked by .500. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve seen Kershaw pitch and I believe the hype that he’s the best thing to happen to the Dodgers since Sandy Koufax. If he learns control then he’ll be unstoppable. But the Giants are only getting better as their young players acclimate and people are already saying the Rockies are one of the top 5 teams in baseball. This division won’t get the wild card and I’m not convinced the Dodgers will do any better than last year.
Ok, those comments proved to me that you know nothing of the NL West. Barely squeaked by at 500? We won 95 games… Only the Angels and Yanks won more.
And you could argue that we are in the most competitive divison in baseball, after the AL East. No other league besides the AL East has 3 teams that could compete in the postseason. To say we wont get the wild card is a pretty bold statement…
Giants have multiple young players? If you still count Timmy and Cain, thats two. There is Sandoval and maybe Sanchez? Sanchez is 26 and hasnt posted a season that is above average. So, they have 3 ‘kids’, one is one of the best, one had a fluky year last year if you look at his ERA-FIP comparisons for his career, and one is looking to establish themselves as a dominate threat in the lineup… My point is what you see from the Giants is what you will get, and even what you see with Cain looks like it is going to be a fluke year…
Whoops… I looked at a different years standings… you’re right. Sorry, been drinking with a buddy. Alright, I’ll concede my analysis is off… but I still think the Dodgers rotation is dependent on things going perfect.
Haha, no worries. I know you have been one of the most consistent posters on here since I started posting, which is why I was quite confused for a moment
I don’t think the year has to go perfect with pitching, but we do need our pitchers to pitch to what they are able to do. I mean, we don’t need sub 3 ERAs from Billz and Kershaw…although it would be nice ;)… but we do need Kuroda to be a solid #3 and Billingsley to continue his ST stuff(before his final start)
Thank you for your kind words sir, you are a scholar and a gentleman. 😉
But if Kershaw gets injured or Billis has another bad half or even if Kuroda has a bad year I don’t see things working out. Right now the Dodgers are a good team… but not a team I’d expect to reach anything past the ALDS if they could even beat the Rocks or the Sandoval/Licencum/Cain/etc of the Giants.
Thank you.
But I think you can say that about any team. If Halladay gets hurt, Hamels has a bad 2nd half, or whoever their #3 starter(Blanton?) has a bad year, then they probably wont make it very far. You can do the same thing for the Sawx, Yanks, Braves, Rockies, Giants(especially the Giants because they are so pitching reliant), etc. It’s something every team has to worry about to some extent.
The fact that the Dodgers have been able to handle the Rockies and Giants fairly well in the regular season over the last couple of years gives me a sense of confidence going into this year, especially given that none of them have made any extreme improvements.
i think the dodgers whole team is depending on being perfect and not getting hurt. aside from their starting lineup, they don’t have anyone.
Oh and yes the Jamie Carroll deal was dumb.
The giants will win the division or the wild card and shut up all the haters.
Way I see it, the Rox pretty much are standing pat from where they were last year, which isnt so bad. Having a guy like Olivo who hit 23 homers last year on the bench is a very nice safety net for them. The D’backs may benefit short term from the Jackson/Scherzer deal, but I see Scherzer as a bonafide stud in a few years and won’t be eating up the payroll as soon as Jackson. Their offense and defense arent too shabby by any means, but that bullpen is going to have its hardships (Can’t wait to see Howry give up walk off to Giants uniforms instead of in one). The Padres will have to pull off a freak-season of youngsters playing out of their minds that would make even the A’s and Rockies’ teams of old envious to be in it, but I think keeping Gonzalez could easily hurt the team because a mid-season deal will not likely give as much in return. Not only that, but I think any team interested in him would be thrilled to have him under his severely under-market value contract for as long as possible. The Dodgers lost a veteran who was as good of a pitcher they had in 2009, and whether or not he would replicate that very solid season this year is irrelevant because they lost someone who helped maintain that NL low ERA on a team that nearly lost a double digit lead in the final two months. Carrol was overpriced, but $4MM isnt $126MM, so it’s not the end of the world despite their budget crunch. They have the offense, their rotation has the potential to be in the NL elite, but that bullpen is nothing to be too excited about. Finally, the Giants went from a team with great pitching and a terribly meager offense. They added a few guys and didnt lose anyone but Winn’s defense and speed, a legitimate veteran 5th starter (Randy Johnson/Brad Penny) and Bob Howry (hahaha). Now they have a very meager offense (slight improvement) and at least Huff Molina and Uribe are one and done if they blow chunks. Pitching is as strong as ever, and if Zito picks up where his 2.80-something ERA left off last year, Sanchez also picks up where he left off and Cain gets the same offensive and defensive support, they may even be better.
All in all, Id say the Giants are really the only team to improve and aren’t a fluke, the Rox are the team to beat because theyre soo deep offensively and Francis makes up for Marquis’ absence, the Dodgers are taken down a peg but are still in it, and the D’backs need a healthy Webb for 2/3rds of the year to be as good as anyone in the West. The Padres….well, they can bust the balls of everyone else come September, I guess. In my mostly un-baised Giants-loving opinion, I say the Rox will likely take the cake in the NL West, the Giants close behind, the Dodgers a few back and the D’backs just in fourth. Padres 5th. However, it should be noted that one injury, breakout season, or trade can absolutely flip the 1-4 spots into any order. No matter what anyone says about their favorite team, it’ll be close.
The Jackson/Scherzer trade was quite odd as right about now they are of equal value but Scherzer is cheaper, younger and has a higher ceiling. Don’t get me wrong I wish the Mets had Edwin Jackson but he did have a terrible second half last year which was his best year so far.
When you have basically an option to have Brandon Webb on your team for $6.5 million you take that option, I find it hard to believe anyone would argue against this.
The Rockies signings have only strengthened the team, having Olivio on the team only means Iannetta isn’t going to be exposed to the same overuse that is in the process of ruining Russel Martins career.
I think we can all agree LA should have offered Wolf arbitration, they made a mistake however their mistakes pails in significance to the one made by Milwaukee in signing Wolf for 3/30. The Carrol signing was AWFUL, way too much money. The Padilla signing is meh, he should provide average 4 in the rotation play I do however think the Dodgers should be aiming higher they have the highest attendance and the best young core in baseball. Following up another good season by overpaying Carrol and signing Belliard and Padilla is stupid. A Pineiro/Beltre signing and a Dan Uggla trade would have been a much better statement of intent.
The Padres should have started seriously shopping Gonzalez at the very start of the off season to start a bidding war. If they get a great package for him it would be the start of something good in San Diego if they wait too long it will only hurt the team further.
Texeira type package is what they should be looking for.
SF had an awful off season, they needed offense and only brought in replacement level players:
Overpaid a very useful Derosa, they got ripped off in the Sanchez trade…. Sanchez is a good player but I’m questioning wether they would have been able to get Dan Uggla for the packages they sent to Cleveland(For Garko) and Pittsburgh. Uggla would have been the build around player they need to complement Panda. The Uribe signing was decent if a little expensive, the Molina signing was odd considering the were similar catchers on the market who signed for much less. The Huff signing was damn awful.