Links for Friday, exactly one year after the Rockies acquired Rafael Betancourt…
- A source tells George A. King III of the New York Post that the Royals will listen on all of their players, including Zack Greinke. As one MLB source explained to Yahoo’s Jeff Passan, the Royals would really need to be blown away to trade their ace (Twitter link).
- The Cardinals have slowed their search for a shortstop who can hit, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
- Here's a major blow for the Royals: David DeJesus will miss two to six weeks, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (via Twitter). Either way, he's out until after the deadline.
- The Giants scouted Jose Guillen last night, according to Olney (Twitter link).
- Brewers manager Ken Macha appears to have job security for the rest of the season, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (Twitter link).
- Paul Hagen of the Philadelphia Daily News suggests that the Phillies should send Raul Ibanez back to Seattle. That's a deal that wouldn't interest the Mariners in the least.
- Jeff Francoeur told Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork that he loves New York, but wouldn't mind being traded if it means he gets to play more. The Mets appear to be trying to trade Francoeur.
Seriously Hagen how do you have a job?
Does Hagen realize that 38-year-old Raul Ibanez has been valued at a negative 0.3 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) this season? Michael Saunders, Seattle’s slick-fielding 23-year-old leftfielder, has been valued at a positive 0.7 WAR.
Perhaps Hagen was contemplating a trade of Ibanez for Milton Bradley, the 32-year-old enigma who has been valued at a negative 0.2 WAR this season and who will cost his team $17.5 million after this season.
Substitute Macha for Hagen and I agree with you.
Oops. Great example why you trade players when you can. Missed opportunities (injuries, regression in performance) kill teams every year.
except for the fact that the royals were reluctant to trade ddj anyway and he’ll play for them next year at an undermarket value contract. just kills us.
You are right.
He’ll play for you next year. Your team will struggle to win 70 games. You will trade him at the next trade deadline for a fraction of what you could have gotten for him this year. You pay the remainder of his 2010 salary and most (or all) of his 2011 salary.
OR …
You trade him yesterday. You land a great prospect or a couple of very solid prospects. You still end up winning about the same number of games as you would have with him. You save yourself $8.5m between the remainder of this year and all of next year.
Sure, the first option (now your only option) isn’t horrible. It just isn’t nearly as good as the scenario if he had been traded.
My post wasn’t to knock KC or DD. It’s an unfortunate situation. One that seems to happen every year. The moral of the story – when you have a commodity you want to trade do it. Don’t wait. Make your move. You never know when a player is going to get injured or shows major regression in performance.
I understand what you are saying, but I really don’t believe that they were going to move DeJesus anyway. Sure, “rumors” had it that he was going to be dealt but now we are hearing “rumors” that Greinke is on the block too. They were waiting to see if they could dump Guillen or Farnsoworth (very real possibilites) and when they did, they would not have traded DeJesus.
I want whatever Hagen is currently ingesting/smoking.
I don’t think you’d get a return on Ibanez even if you picked up 75%-80% of the tab. What nonsense. How does he get paid to write such drivel?
I think we would have to send players for someone to take half of Ibanez’ contract lol.
Another jam-up article by the folks at Philly.com.
Dejesus hurt? NO, that means Sabean will give up a top prospect for him 🙁
I don’t see how someone like Paul Hagan can get away with writing an article about that. I’d love to see that happen, but that was one of the dumbest articles ever
what’s frenchy’s trade value at this point? he’s still got a rocket arm, but they’re dangling him out there as if he’s something to get excited about. of course, i guess werth is getting the same treatment, so what do i know?
the mariners owe the phillies one in my opinion! so they should take him back since we hooked them up!
Hahahahaha
Somebody should teach Paul Hagen about the term “player value”.
Seriously, how does this guy have a job?
Phillies should go after Soria and/or Greinke!
Good luck. The Yankees would get them before Philly would.
yeahh but soria put the yanks in his no trade list. As a phillies fan i would love to see greinke in philly he would be coming into the national league with no DH and the way he worked the AL last year he should be able to get back on track if he came to the NL. but i dont really see the royals dealing him.
I know, but Soria only did that (I believe) so that if they wanted him they would have to restructure his very undermarket contract and pay him more…smart move. You are right though. I doubt the Royals would deal Greinke. He is the face of the franchise and they are looking to contend 2012-13 and he will still be under contract. I don’t know what his problem is this year. It could be his anti-social disorder/anxiety…who knows. I made an argument in another post about the possibility of losing Miguel Olivo cause someone said he couldn’t call games but he called all of Greinke’s last year and now is calling Ubaldo Jimenez’s. Plus, he called Esteban Loaiza’s 2nd place Cy Young in 2003. Never know.
Kansas City: Like Toronto, without the home runs.I’m pretty sure the entire Omaha team would be an upgrade over anyone outside of Greinke, Butler, Dejesus and Soria.
Toronto plays in the much tougher AL East and has a better record. They’re nothing the same.
Toronto plays in the much tougher AL East and has a better record. They’re nothing the same.
Greinke makes sense. His deal is structured at 7.5 this year, and 13 and 13.5 for the next two. He goes from affordable to 25% of the Royals Budget next year.
The pitching market is very thin, and everyone needs a top starter. Greinke’s value to them will never be higher than it is this week.
If you’re Philly, NY, Tampa, St.Louis, Minnesota, or Detroit, and Greinke is available, I’m sorry, there are no untouchables for this guy, including DBrown or Shelby Miller.
If you’re Arizona or Houston, and there is truth to this, you better get a deal done soon for Haren or Oswalt.
But I’m not convinced Greinke can cope in a big media market.
Including DBrown? Seriously? Greinke is a great pitcher, but I can’t see moving a guy some have compared to a young (drug-free) Darryl Strawberry for a big contract, especially when Philly is already stretching their means. I definitely think a play for him would make sense for the Phillies, but Dom Brown has to be untouchable.
I think the point was if the Phillies did really want Greinke that is what it would cost them – Not whether it was worth it. Look at what Wade is asking for Oswalt! And what Seattle wanted for Cliff Lee. Haren was said to cost two starting pitchers and a top reliever. You cannot acquire a club’s ace without giving up your “untouchable” #1 prospect. It is unrealistic.
no way you give up a brown or trout for grienke. You can find pitching elsewhere and while it may not be as good as grienke it will be close enough, coupled with you keeping your top prospect, becomes a much much much better solution
no way you give up a brown or trout for grienke. You can find pitching elsewhere and while it may not be as good as grienke it will be close enough, coupled with you keeping your top prospect, becomes a much much much better solution
why do people bother with the dribble New York Sportswriters make.
your better off using a magic 8-ball.
Just thinking out loud but who says no in a Zack Greinke and Joakim Soria for Jesus Montero, Joba Chamberlain, Manny Banuelos, Adam Warren and David Adams trade?
Montero and Adams were two of the three pieces in the Lee trade (the other was rumored to be Zach McCallister). Banuelos is the Yankees top pitching prospect and Warren has taken some big steps forward this year (’09 4th round pick: 9-5, 2.23 ERA, 1.118 WHIP and 3.50 SO/BB ratio at A+ and AA).
All that for Greinke AND Soria? Hell no! As a Royals fan I would be extremely pissed if that happened. Greinke has 3 years left on his contract and is a top 5 pitcher in the MLB and Soria is an All-Star signed through 2014 (both are affordable contracts too).
If you’re getting both of them then you better add some more quality prospects to that list.
Not sure how that isn’t quality prospects. Montero is a top 5 prospect in baseball (at a position where the Royals have a desperate need). Chamberlain has immense upside and could be (finally) used as a starter in KC. Adams is the best IF prospect in the Yankee system (2nd baseman hitting .309/.393/.507 at AA), Banuelos is the best pitcher (19 years old, 1.27 ERA, 1.06 WHIP so far this year in A ball) and Warren has put up a great year and is young at only 22.
Okay, and then what do they offer for Soria? Haha
Yes those are all good prospects but you are suggesting the Yanks get Greinke and Soria in return? That’s laughable. I could see trading Soria for Montero and Adams. But if you want Greinke AND Soria you might need to add a couple more players. Just sayin, Greinke is the most important athlete in Kansas City and if he’s moved you have no idea what would happen, there would be riots in the city lol trust me KC loves their Greinke.
I think everyone is vastly overvaluing what a closer (even a superb one like Soria) is worth. In WAR, Greinke was worth roughly the same in ’09 as the ’05 through ’09 seasons of Rivera combined. ’09 Jason Marquis was worth more than every season of Mariano Rivera’s career except 1996 when he was the set-up man for Wettelend. A decent starting pitcher is worth more than the very best closers. Let’s get our expectations in check for what Soria is worth – Montero is far more valuable than Soria.
Well if I’m Dayton Moore I’m not giving up my all-star closer who is signed through 2014 unless I get a package similar to the one I mentioned in my previous comment. I really doubt an unproven catching prospect is “far” more valuable than Soria imo.
I’d be willing to bet that there are a lot of general managers, including Dayton Moore, Omar Minaya, Ed Wade and Brian Sabean, that would agree with you. I think there are a lot of general managers, such as Andrew Friedman, Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Jon Daniels, that would agree with me. Call me crazy, but I’d rather be on the side of the second group than the first…
Woah woah, wait. Are you seriously trying to say that those GM’s you listed in the 2nd group would rather have an unproven AAA catcher than a 2 time All-Star closer with a career 2.13 ERA with 115 SV’s? I’m trying to be nice and not call you a dumb a$$ but come on!!!!
You’re damn right I’m saying that. The value of a top offensive prospect under team control for 6 or 7 seasons FAR exceeds the value of a very good closer signed to a somewhat below market contract for 4 years.
Hmm… your logic seems a little off. There’s no way if I’m the Royals that I trade away my All-Star closer for a guy that might be a All-Star but just as easily could be a bust. Maybe if it was a package deal and the Royals got another player along with Montero. I take it you are a Yankees fan so you being an idiot doesn’t shock me the least.
Awww, that’s cute – calling me an idiot. Without getting into what I think of your intellect (hint: not much), I would just ask that if you make an argument you use some evidence to back it up. I can cite to Tom Tango’s analysis of top prospect value, expected WAR production and closer production to make an argument here.
Also if you look at my other response you’ll notice I acknowledge that a Montero for Soria trade COULD make sense depending on the team’s individual circumstances and ability to win in the short term. But for the Royals, Soria is great silverware and china in a dining room that lacks a table, chairs or food – it’s nice to have but it really doesn’t matter if the other things aren’t in place.
Now, obviously there’s some variance here, if I’m the Yankees or Sox or Rays then Soria is more relatively useful to my team than he is to the Royals or a similar poorly situated team. Soria’s value to the Royals is negligible though, a closer is a last piece on a good team – not the sort of thing you build around. So for 2010 alone, a wise GM absolutely might prefer Soria – but if they were evaluating the players in a vacuum then there is no question in my mind that any statistically inclined GM would take a Montero or Brown or Trout or Stanton-type prospect before Soria in a heartbeat.
Alright we are getting a bit off subject here. The Royals have Soria under contract for 4 more years. In order to pry Dayton Moore away from him would have to take more than Jesus Montero. I know Montero is a great prospect but he is still a prospect. If you package Montero with another type B prospect then I think there could be a deal done. But Soria’s club friendly contract and his talent is way too valuable to give away just for Montero.
The one thing working for NYY is that KC doesn’t really have a good catching prospect. We have Wil Myers but I’m pretty certain that he is going to move to the outfield
Hahaha, what I’m getting at here is that I don’t think there’s any chance in hell the Yankees would move Montero for Soria. I could see them moving a catcher like J.R. Murphy and another decent piece (like a David Adams or Adam Warren). Or I could see, potentially, them moving an Austin Romine and much lesser secondary piece for him and I believe those would be reasonable deals for each team.
I’m not going to lie, the only stuff I know about Montero is his stats that I’ve spent about 30 min. looking atover the course of the day. His stat line in AAA this year is .277/.352/.468. He has an OPS of .820 which is below average to say the least. It looks like to me he is going to hit for an OK average, with average power. He is throwing out 22% of players trying to run on him (which is worse than Jason Kendall his year for KC).
Soriao the other hand is a machine. He simply just gets people out. 26 SV on the year. I know a closer isn’t the most valuable position but he is great at what he does, btw he’s only 26 which is a far cry from Mariano Rivera’s age. He will be a top closer for many years imo. I think if I’m Dayton Moore I don’t let Soria go unless it is a great deal (Montero + another player).
From Baseball Prospectus on Montero:
The Good: Simply put, Montero is one of the best offensive prospects in the game, and possibly the best. He’s a massive slugger with the contact skills of a batting champion, with one scout classifying his ability to put the middle of the barrel on the ball “almost supernatural.” His raw power is at or near the top of the charts—and he’s just starting to tap into it. He has the potential for 30-40 home runs annually. He’s a hard worker who puts as much work into his defense as his hitting, and he’s made great strides behind the plate.
The Bad: Montero remains a well below-average catcher, despite his improvements. His big, thick build doesn’t provide much agility defensively, and he’s only expected to get bigger, which will almost assuredly mean a move to first base. His approach is good for his age, but it could use some improvements, as he swings at a lot of bad pitches, making up for it by often crushing them.
You can’t judge a minor league by looking at his numbers in a vacuum, he’s been on fire lately as well. In July Montero has been .420 BA, .531 OBP, .740 SLG, 1.271 OPS.
Percent of runners thrown out is somewhat indicative of a catcher’s throwing prowess, but, it can be argued, is every bit if not more indicative of how well a pitcher holds runners on base.
Also an .820 OPS is considered good for any player. The Royals only have two players with an OPS above .820 (.852 for Butler and .827 for DeJesus – which would be a career high by a significant margin). Montero also put up an .868 OPS as an 18 year old and a .951 as a 19 year old. He’s also currently, I believe but could be mistaken, the youngest player in his league in AAA – he’s still only 20.
Well if he can stay at catcher I think he would be very valuable for the Royals. Obviously I don’t know much about the guy, I spend most of my time looking at KC’s farm system. If he really can hit 30-40 HR’s a season and stay at catcher I think the Royals should try to get him. But, Alex Gordon had more hype than that when he came up, if I remember right someone called him the next Albert Pujols, but with speed. So anything can happen with these prospects.
Montero for Soria would be an interesting deal. I don’t know what I would think of it. Soria is probably the 2nd best player for the Royals (behind Greinke) so there would be a lot of pressure on Montero in my mind. I still don’t think Moore will trade Soria to NY unless he can get Montero and one other prospect, just because Dayton has a really thick head haha.
I would argue that Butler and DeJesus have been more valuable this year, especially Butler. I actually think Butler is one of the most underrated players in baseball. By WAR Hochevar has been better, but I’m not sure how I feel about that…
I think an offer of something like C Austin Romine (arguably the Yankees #2 prospect and probably a mid-40s overall prospect) and SP Adam Warren (young starter whose really broken out this year) would be a fair offer for Soria for both teams, but that’s probably just me…
For what’s it worth the buzz is that the Yankees really see Romine as the catcher of the future (he’s a much better defender). I actually have trouble seeing Montero fitting into the Yankees’ plans – he’s a Victor Martinez-type defender (so more of a 1B or DH who can play C but probably shouldn’t).
Glad we’ve reached something of a peace in our discussions, lol.
Well I have been a little disappointed in Butler this year. He’s hit into 24 double-plays, he hasn’t hit for much power and his defense has been a disappointment to say the least. I seriously doubt the Royals trade Soria this year unless they are overwhelmed with an offer. Romine/Warren would make since and I think both teams would benefit from the trade. But the chances of Soria being traded are second-to-none.
Also All-Star appearances are meaningless. Do you actually think Omar Infante is a better player than Ryan Zimmerman? Or that Arthur Rhodes is better than Matt Cain?
Oh my god. You know absolutely nothing about baseball and you are a complete and total homer. That is all.
Says the Yankees fan…. lol
Recognizing that Jesus Montero is one of the premier prospects in all of baseball has nothing to do with the Yankees fan, a team I detest, for the record.
When you even admit that you’ve done nothing but look at his stats at AAA, you have no frame of reference in order to gauge just how good of a prospect Montero is.
And, again, for the record, the idea of Soria for Montero straight up is beyond laughable. It’s just flat-out preposterous.
I definitely recognize that Montero is a premier prospect, dumb ass. Oh and “for the record” Soria for Montero is definitely not laughable. If the Yanks want Soria they are going to have to give up something similar to Montero. Sure, I don’t spend hours a day looking at Jesus Montero stats. But I think BWOzar made it clear in a prior post that he might not be able to stay at catcher. If he can’t and has to play mostly at 1st then his value goes down some.
LOL @ a guy who has an .820 OPS in AAA being worth more than a top closer in the major leagues!
I’d be willing to bet that there are a lot of general managers, including Dayton Moore, Omar Minaya, Ed Wade and Brian Sabean, that would agree with you. I think there are a lot of general managers, such as Andrew Friedman, Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Jon Daniels, that would agree with me. Call me crazy, but I’d rather be on the side of the second group than the first…
Whatever gets you through the day.
But in order to obtain Soria from the Royals you have to compensate them for his value to the team, he’s very valuable to the Royals. Not just because he is the closer but because he is locked up to one of the most team friendly contracts in baseball until 2014 (four more seasons after this one), then add to the fact that he is the second best closer in the AL right now (him and Nathan are neck and neck in my eyes but Nathan is out this year).
How is a closer so valuable to a team that doesn’t win? The games he closes don’t matter when the team so far removed from contention. It’s like having an amazing blu-ray player on a home theater system that doesn’t have a television, a sound system, couches or movies to play. That’s without getting into the statistical justifications…
I’d also point out that Mariano Rivera is the best closer in the AL. I think we can both agree saves are not a good measure here as the Yankees win a hell of a lot more games than the Royals. That said, Rivera’s ERA the last 4 years (ie: Soria’s time as closer): 3.15, 1.40, 1.76, 0.98 – Soria’s: 2.48, 1.60, 2.21, 2.31. More importantly their respective xFIPs: 3.01, 2.32, 2.46, 3.09 for Rivera vs. 3.30, 3.66, 2.95, 3.11. Rivera’s WAR over that time: 8.6. Soria’s WAR: 6.7. Rivera is still a better pitcher than Soria.
I think he was saying Nathan and Soria were neck-and-neck for second best closer.
Never said that Mo wasn’t the best, he is until he retires. Just saying that Soria and Nathan are tied for 2nd in my book and since Nathan is out Soria is the 2nd best closer in the AL this year.
As far as a trade, it just isn’t going to happen. The Royals hope to compete in 2012 and beyond when guys like Moose, Montgomery, Lamb, Dwyer, Duffy, Hosmer and Myers (I love my teams farm system so much more than the actual team) are ready to contribute in the majors. They need a guy like Soria at that point, not now.
All of that aside, the Royals won’t trade Soria unless they can’t refuse an offer. Thus the Soria for Montero.
The whole closer thing is moot in my opinion. If the GM’s you listed were as smart as you said they were they would use their best relief pitcher in the most “high leverage” situation. But very rarely do we see guys like Riveria, Paps, Nathan or Soria come in the game in the 6th or 7th inning and get 1 to 1.2 innings of work in.
I misread, my apologies.
This is why WAR is just wrong on relievers. It completely undervalues relievers … and closers in particular. If you honestly believe that Jason Marquis in 09 was more valuable than than every year of Mariano’s career since 1996 then that’s saying something.
I’m actually curious what your rationale is on this. 216 solid innings are more valuable than 70 (or so) great innings. I don’t know what about that seems to boggle people’s minds, it’s incredibly logical.
It should be telling that under WAR Mariano Rivera’s best season was the one time he pitched over 80.2 innings (107.2 IP in 1996) – even though he only had 5 saves that year and generally only pitched the 7th and 8th. I’m quite certain any Yankee fan old enough to have watched and followed ’96 Rivera would recognize that as the best season of his career regardless of WAR even though he wasn’t the ‘closer’.
Please don’t tell me there’s something magical about the character of people who pitch in the 9th inning. Let’s take an actual line-up as an example and look at the Washington Nationals. I would rather have my ‘closer’ (read: my best relief pitcher) face the Zimmerman-Dunn-Willingham heart of the Nationals line-up in the 8th inning and then have my 2nd best reliever pitch to Rodriguez-Bernadina-Desmond in the 9th. The opposite is silly, it’s managers pandering to the meaningless save stat.
I do agree that the closer position in and of itself is overrated. However, when the market it rates it as highly as it does, you have to play the market and get the highest value you can. Not doing so is irresponsible as a GM, in any field.
I don’t know that the market among good GMs really does value a closer that highly. Papelbon came up through the Boston system. Soriano was acquired for a middling pitcher named Jesse Chavez who has an ERA over 6 this year for Atlanta. Heath Bell was acquired for two guys who I believe are out of baseball right now.
Sure you have the Omar Minaya’s of the world throwing tons of money at K-Rod, but in general I think the market is starting to correct to the actual value of relievers. Which is also why good relief pitchers who get Type-A arbitration status have trouble finding work – teams recognize that in most cases that 1st round pick will probably have more value than a reliever.
I think everyone is vastly overvaluing what a closer (even a superb one like Soria) is worth. In WAR, Greinke was worth roughly the same in ’09 as the ’05 through ’09 seasons of Rivera combined. ’09 Jason Marquis was worth more than every season of Mariano Rivera’s career except 1996 when he was the set-up man for Wettelend. A decent starting pitcher is worth more than the very best closers. Let’s get our expectations in check for what Soria is worth – Montero is far more valuable than Soria.
I disagree that Joba Chamberlain has that much upside. The Yankees are keen on dealing him. Maybe they know he has flameout written all over him.
I think the Royals would want more for both Greinke and Soria. I also think they’d get better packages if they moved them in separate deals.
Good point on moving them separately, I agree with that.
Maybe Hughes instead of Chamberlain… But Yankees definitely say no then.
Last year a Royals blog speculated on where to move Soria and they mentioned Philly as a destination. I wish I had the link to the article now, but I feel like they suggested that KC would want Dom Brown, a top pitching prospect, and another piece just for “The Executioner.” That’s quite a haul for a closer, but just puts in perspective what the Royals might expect for their two ace pitchers.
Brown wasn’t the prospect last year that he is today. Philly and Amaro couldn’t possibly be stupid enough to move Brown – the top prospect in baseball today – for a closer. Though they were stupid enough to get the least back for Lee in the three times he was traded in the last year…
Brown was still ranked #29 last year by Baseball America, and the Phillies chose to keep him over Michael Taylor, which says a lot.
I agree that they got hosed with the Lee deal, though they really didn’t give up as much as people suggest to get him in the first place. Carrasco, Donald, Marson, and Knapp are not much better than Aumont, Gillies, and Ramirez.
Brown was still ranked #29 last year by Baseball America, and the Phillies chose to keep him over Michael Taylor, which says a lot.
I agree that they got hosed with the Lee deal, though they really didn’t give up as much as people suggest to get him in the first place. Carrasco, Donald, Marson, and Knapp are not much better than Aumont, Gillies, and Ramirez.
Exactly, a #29 prospect is FAR less valuable than a #1 prospect. Far smarter people than I (such as Tom Tango) have analyzed the cash value of a top prospect with a good deal of certainty and there is no relief pitcher worth as much as a legitimate top prospect.
Exactly, a #29 prospect is FAR less valuable than a #1 prospect. Far smarter people than I (such as Tom Tango) have analyzed the cash value of a top prospect with a good deal of certainty and there is no relief pitcher worth as much as a legitimate top prospect.
Brown wasn’t the prospect last year that he is today. Philly and Amaro couldn’t possibly be stupid enough to move Brown – the top prospect in baseball today – for a closer. Though they were stupid enough to get the least back for Lee in the three times he was traded in the last year…
Last year a Royals blog speculated on where to move Soria and they mentioned Philly as a destination. I wish I had the link to the article now, but I feel like they suggested that KC would want Dom Brown, a top pitching prospect, and another piece just for “The Executioner.” That’s quite a haul for a closer, but just puts in perspective what the Royals might expect for their two ace pitchers.
Grienke can’t play in NYC he wouldn’t last.
Jeez, I should’ve thought of that. There must be SOMETHING in his character that makes him too feeble to play in New York. He lacks the mental toughness of a true Yankee warrior like AJ Burnett. [End Sarcasm]
Greinke is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Period. He would be great in New York, Boston or any other ‘pressure’ environment you can come up with.
He also has suffered from social anxiety disorder and battled depression. Do you really think shipping him off to the big apple is in his best interest? I’m not debating his skill, its there, but some players can handle the bright lights and the intense scrutiny of nyc, and some can’t.
Players with anxiety disorders and depression issues bordering on suicide can’t succeed in New York, you say? Like former World Series hero Jim Leyritz? He had no success in New York or in big moments, oh wait… Or ’96 World Series MVP John Wetteland?
Both of those guys have been institutionalized in recent years for suicidal behavior.
That was depression. I was speaking more of the social anxiety aspect. Those with social anxiety disorder have a much tougher time living under intense scrutiny, constantly having a spotlight in your face. In the bright lights of the bronx, having a pre existing social anxiety disorder that lead to you taken time away from your team while living in kansas city, isn’t exactly a recipe for success.
I guess what I’m getting is that other than one of us playing armchair psychiatrist for Greinke, which is simply unfair to Greinke, what basis is there for what you’re saying? For all we know he’s taking medications that keep all of that in check. As an aside, Greinke did just fine on the ‘big stage’ in the All Star game as well.
The whole point of forums such as these is for people to post THEIR opinion, you can call anyone here an Armchair GM, or this case an armchair psychiatrist. Its my opinion, and i stand behind it because I have it founded on information I’ve taken in. If you’re going to sit and argue with every one’s personal opinion you are going to be on here all day. I can see that your bright and know your stuff from your posts. but like i said, people are talking about grienke going to the yankees, and i gave in my 2 cents. thats all.
That was depression. I was speaking more of the social anxiety aspect. Those with social anxiety disorder have a much tougher time living under intense scrutiny, constantly having a spotlight in your face. In the bright lights of the bronx, having a pre existing social anxiety disorder that lead to you taken time away from your team while living in kansas city, isn’t exactly a recipe for success.
He also has suffered from social anxiety disorder and battled depression. Do you really think shipping him off to the big apple is in his best interest? I’m not debating his skill, its there, but some players can handle the bright lights and the intense scrutiny of nyc, and some can’t.
Jeez, I should’ve thought of that. There must be SOMETHING in his character that makes him too feeble to play in New York. He lacks the mental toughness of a true Yankee warrior like AJ Burnett. [End Sarcasm]
Greinke is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Period. He would be great in New York, Boston or any other ‘pressure’ environment you can come up with.
Grienke can’t play in NYC he wouldn’t last.
Ok… not that the Royals would trade Greinke for Francouer… but earlier there was a report that the Royals liked Frenchy and now one that everyone is available… and the Mets want a pitcher…? SOOO – is there anyway that the Mets can get a Zack Greinke from the Royals…. and what would that deal look like… and would Frenchy be involved?
You will have to give up a LOT of prospects for the face of the Royals franchise.
Davis, Mejia, Niese and Thole (or Martinez or Flores)…
If Davis is Ike Davis, the Royals already have too many 1B/DH players that the second best one is sitting in the minors still. I just don’t think anything would work with the Mets, especially if Francoeur is involved like therambler is suggesting/wanting.
Who do they have beyond Butler? Davis is a true AB while Butler is more of a DH. They’ve shown they have no intention of ever giving Ka’aihue a legit shot in the majors and Guillen is in the last year of his contract.
Currently the Royals have Butler 1B/DH, Eric Hosmer 1B, Kila Ka’aihue 1B/DH, Clint Robinson 1B/DH, Jose Guillen RF/DH (mostly DH). The Royals really do not need another 1B/DH. Ka’aihue will get his chance if/when Pods or Guillen gets traded. I would much rather the Royals get a SS of catcher, maybe even a corner outfielder…
I forgot about Hosmer – good point. But he doesn’t defeat that Davis would be a valuable player for the Royals.
The use of the feeble Guillen, moves for junk like Jacobs and Kila Monster’s purgatory in the minors (with a skill set the Royals refuse to recognize – read Posnanski’s great write-up on this) make me think the guy is never gonna get a legit shot in KC.
Currently the Royals have Butler 1B/DH, Eric Hosmer 1B, Kila Ka’aihue 1B/DH, Clint Robinson 1B/DH, Jose Guillen RF/DH (mostly DH). The Royals really do not need another 1B/DH. Ka’aihue will get his chance if/when Pods or Guillen gets traded. I would much rather the Royals get a SS of catcher, maybe even a corner outfielder…
Who do they have beyond Butler? Davis is a true AB while Butler is more of a DH. They’ve shown they have no intention of ever giving Ka’aihue a legit shot in the majors and Guillen is in the last year of his contract.
If Davis is Ike Davis, the Royals already have too many 1B/DH players that the second best one is sitting in the minors still. I just don’t think anything would work with the Mets, especially if Francoeur is involved like therambler is suggesting/wanting.
If I’m anthopolous, I’d make a trade for grienke.. Right now his value is a bit low with an off year, perhaps you can get him a bit cheaper then say inquiring last year..
I don’t know what a trade would look like.. I’m not overly in tune with KC’s needs.. But umm Brian Jeroloman, Zach Stewart and Marc Rzepchynski for Grienke?
I’m thinking they’d want Marcum in the deal.
Why would KC want marcum though? The best thing for them would be cheaper controllable pieces. Stewart and Rzep won’t be as good as Grienke, but could form a middle of the rotation for the next 3-4 years for cheap. In Jeroloman you get a catcher with a AA obp over .400, with power and good (and improving) defensive skills
Why would KC want marcum though? The best thing for them would be cheaper controllable pieces. Stewart and Rzep won’t be as good as Grienke, but could form a middle of the rotation for the next 3-4 years for cheap. In Jeroloman you get a catcher with a AA obp over .400, with power and good (and improving) defensive skills
I was thinking Wallace would need to be a part of it.
Jays won’t trade any position players besides a catcher or someone off the roster. . They don’t have the depth to replace wallace within, so while you get grienke, you end up with another hole else where.
Arencibia then… he would fill a need for KC. But is Toronto close enough to make this sort of trade worthwhile? Will they realistically compete in ’11 or ’12 because I don’t see it…
Jays won’t trade Arencibia, because that will again create a void at catcher for next season.. Jeroloman is just as good as a prospect as Arencibia, so the jays have plenty of catching depth to move someone…
If you enter 2011 with a rotation of Grienke-Romero-Marcum-Morrow-Drabek
move cecil back to closing duties.
Sign Crawford. line up of
Crawford-Escobar-Lind-Wells-Snider-Hill-Wallace-Arencibia-3basemen (emaus ideally)
I don’t see why the jays couldn’t compete, they still wouldn’t be near the elite teams like the rays and yankees, but they would begin to start getting closer
I’m curious what basis you say Jeroloman is as good a prospect as Arencibia because no one else has ever ranked him that way. Baseball Prospectus listed 3 Jays catchers in their Top 15 prospects (3. d’Arnaud, 5. Arencibia, 7. Perez) and he wasn’t one of them. Baseball America listen only Arencibia (#2) and Perez (#9) in their top 10 (but it was pre-Halladay trade). Jeroloman is also 25 years old which is EXTREMELY old for a prospect at AA.
he’s in AA because he’s blocked, not because of any lack of success on his side. I guess I shouldn’t bother stating his stats and the incredible year he’s having as you will just revert back to him being an overages AA’er
I’m a Jays fan and saying Jeroloman is just as good of a prospect as Arencibia is laughable… I’d be willing to part with Arencibia/Rzepcynski/Stewart for Greinke any day, and let Jeroloman take over till Perez/Jiminez/D’arnaud are ready for the bigs.
If he’s 25 and blocked it’s because he’s failed to have success. A 25 year old catcher with a career minor league slugging percentage of .355 is simply not a relevant prospect. He also has a RADICALLY unsustainable .425 BABIP this season (which would be the highest BABIP in baseball history in the major leagues – only 17 major leagues have ever been over .400 in a single season in the history of the game). His career BABIP has generally been right around .300 and he has no speed. He’s a nothing prospect having an incredibly lucky year.
One correction, it’s only 13 different players that have had a BABIP over .400 for a single season – Hornsby did it twice and Cobb four times (so 17 individual seasons).
I think its unfair to call him a ‘nothing’ prospect, his D is what scouts love about him, anything he does with the bat is a bonus.
I have no idea about his actual defense, but I do agree he has a strong defensive reputation. I’d argue that a lot of those reputations are complete nonsense (such as with my own team’s Francisco Cervelli who has a great defensive reputation that’s backed up by absolutely no defensive metrics).
That said, a 25 year old defensive specialist is not something that would be relevant in a trade for a guy like Greinke, though he might well be a fine defense-minded back up someday.
Couldn’t agree more, which is why I concurred with you when you said put Arencibia in the deal. If the Royals didn’t have lots of depth at 1b/DH i’m sure they’d prefer Wallace, but a catcher (Royal’s organizational need) with 28 HR in 331 AB @ AAA isn’t too bad either.
he’s in AA because he’s blocked, not because of any lack of success on his side. I guess I shouldn’t bother stating his stats and the incredible year he’s having as you will just revert back to him being an overages AA’er
I’m curious what basis you say Jeroloman is as good a prospect as Arencibia because no one else has ever ranked him that way. Baseball Prospectus listed 3 Jays catchers in their Top 15 prospects (3. d’Arnaud, 5. Arencibia, 7. Perez) and he wasn’t one of them. Baseball America listen only Arencibia (#2) and Perez (#9) in their top 10 (but it was pre-Halladay trade). Jeroloman is also 25 years old which is EXTREMELY old for a prospect at AA.
Jays won’t trade Arencibia, because that will again create a void at catcher for next season.. Jeroloman is just as good as a prospect as Arencibia, so the jays have plenty of catching depth to move someone…
If you enter 2011 with a rotation of Grienke-Romero-Marcum-Morrow-Drabek
move cecil back to closing duties.
Sign Crawford. line up of
Crawford-Escobar-Lind-Wells-Snider-Hill-Wallace-Arencibia-3basemen (emaus ideally)
I don’t see why the jays couldn’t compete, they still wouldn’t be near the elite teams like the rays and yankees, but they would begin to start getting closer
Arencibia then… he would fill a need for KC. But is Toronto close enough to make this sort of trade worthwhile? Will they realistically compete in ’11 or ’12 because I don’t see it…
Jays won’t trade any position players besides a catcher or someone off the roster. . They don’t have the depth to replace wallace within, so while you get grienke, you end up with another hole else where.
I think the selling high or low on established major league players is more myth than anything. Greinke having a down year this year means that he isn’t having one of the 15 best seasons since WWII. Greinke’s value is the same, the only time it will really go down is if they wait to trade him the deadline before his contract expires, and even then the drop won’t be that drastic.
But regardless to get Greinke you will need to give up your #1 propsect then a combo of two of your #2-5 prospects and an established major league player that is in pre-arb years and producing. The Rays have the pieces to get it done, but it would be costly.
Thats too much.
I say hell NO, Joba is a bum and dont care for any of your prospects except maybe Montero!
I guess you know the whole Yankee farm system
Zack Grienke would absolutely dominate in the National League. Amaro should focus on him since he’s willing to sell the farm anyway.
Seriously though, I’m not familiar with the Royals. What would they be looking for in a Grienke deal?
My understanding is that outside of an ace and a closer, the Royals need lots of everything.
My understanding is that outside of an ace and a closer, the Royals need lots of everything.
I’m guessing they would want a 3 top notch prospects and and 2 mid level prospects (just guessing). Catcher , ss, and outfielders are all needs for KC at this point.
I’m guessing they would want a 3 top notch prospects and and 2 mid level prospects (just guessing). Catcher , ss, and outfielders are all needs for KC at this point.
“Seriously though, I’m not familiar with the Royals. What would they be looking for in a Grienke deal?”
Think of your favorite teams #1 prospect..
then add your #2 and maybe #5 prospect to it. Add a current major league player 0-3 years.
And that’s about what it would take.
And whoever tried to argue Domonic Brown is not worth Zack Greinke…apparently has never watched Zack pitch.
I’ve seen Zack pitch plenty of times thanks. He is good no doubt, but do you think the jays didn’t ask for brown in the halladay deal? Not saying he’s not worth it, its just you don’t trade prospects that highly touted so close to them having an everyday job.
What has Brown done in the majors? Grienke is a stud under contract until 2012 or 2013. Just another case of fans overvaluing their prospects. The reason Brown was not included in the Halliday deal is because he wasn’t locked up past this year.
It’s not an apple and apples comparison. The Doc was down to the last year of his contract I believe (Philly had a extension window, right?) while Greinke is locked up through 2012 at a very nice figure, and Roy is also a lot older than Greinke.
Greinke is a lot cheaper than Halladay. Yes, I’d trade Brown for Greinke in a heartbeat.
I’ve seen Zack pitch plenty of times thanks. He is good no doubt, but do you think the jays didn’t ask for brown in the halladay deal? Not saying he’s not worth it, its just you don’t trade prospects that highly touted so close to them having an everyday job.
“Seriously though, I’m not familiar with the Royals. What would they be looking for in a Grienke deal?”
Think of your favorite teams #1 prospect..
then add your #2 and maybe #5 prospect to it. Add a current major league player 0-3 years.
And that’s about what it would take.
And whoever tried to argue Domonic Brown is not worth Zack Greinke…apparently has never watched Zack pitch.
Didn’t mean to like, meant to reply, but the Royals would want a lot in return. He’s the face of the franchise, signed to a reasonable contract till the end of the 2012 season.
Didn’t mean to like, meant to reply, but the Royals would want a lot in return. He’s the face of the franchise, signed to a reasonable contract till the end of the 2012 season.
Here is what it would take for me. If some how San Fran could get thier hands on Domonic Brown;then trade him along with Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner and Zack Wheeler…Then we could talk LOL
Even I think that would be too much to demand from one team for Greinke alone.
Even I think that would be too much to demand from one team for Greinke alone.
Here is what it would take for me. If some how San Fran could get thier hands on Domonic Brown;then trade him along with Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner and Zack Wheeler…Then we could talk LOL
I personally would love to see a Soria trade to the Yanks for Montero and Chamberlain..
then trade Greinke to the Rays for say, Upton, Hellickson and Brignac and a couple middle prospects.
Royals organization would almost take on a whole new look soon after that, then start transitioning in our kids like Moustakas, Kila, Colon..then in 2012, 2013..Hosmer, Myers.
Zack trade would make that transition run smoothly.
I hope you are being sarcastic about the Yankee trade??
Trade joba, huges, montero and a AAA prospect for Zach.
I personally would love to see a Soria trade to the Yanks for Montero and Chamberlain..
then trade Greinke to the Rays for say, Upton, Hellickson and Brignac and a couple middle prospects.
Royals organization would almost take on a whole new look soon after that, then start transitioning in our kids like Moustakas, Kila, Colon..then in 2012, 2013..Hosmer, Myers.
Zack trade would make that transition run smoothly.
Greinke is the center piece to the future of the Royals. If they trade Greinke they better get 4-5 good/great prospects. My thought is trade Soria if the price is right but do NOT trade Greinke!!!!!!
Greinke is the center piece to the future of the Royals. If they trade Greinke they better get 4-5 good/great prospects. My thought is trade Soria if the price is right but do NOT trade Greinke!!!!!!
Trade Zach to Boston.
As a Boston fan I would LOVE to see that happen, but it is HIGHLY unlikely. Plus it would probably take something like: Kalish, Kelly, Iglesias, plus probably two of Anderson/Rizzo/Middlebrooks/Pimentel/Navarro/or Federowicz. Maybe I am way off on the value one way or the other but that is what I picture it taking to get him to Boston.But just imagine a rotation of Beckett – Lester – Greinke – Buchholz – Lackey
I’m waiting for Paul Hagen’s follow up piece on how trading Wilson Valdez would be a better deal for the Phillies.
Get after Greinke brewers