The Red Sox, who could officially be eliminated from the playoffs this week, are looking ahead to the 2011 season. Here's the latest on what to expect from next year's team:
- Adrian Beltre told Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that he hopes he doesn't have to exercise his player option. Depending on how many plate appearances the third baseman makes between now and the end of the season, he'll have an option worth $5MM or $10MM. The point is moot, since Beltre will opt out and test the market.
- Bill Hall has subbed in everywhere and provided pop off the bench, but the Red Sox aren't likely to pick up his $9.25MM option for 2011. Hall tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he hasn't though much about where he'd play or what kind of contract he'd get if he hits free agency.
- Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald says the Red Sox could use Jayson Werth next year, even though they have J.D. Drew, Mike Cameron, Jacoby Ellsbury and Ryan Kalish under team control.
Aren’t likely to pick Hall’s 9.25M option up? Like not a chance in somewhere it never gets cold. Hall will be lucky to get 1-1.5M next season.
Are you kidding me hall is a very valuable player. He’ll get more than that next year. Easily double.
no real new news here. the sox will go after werth and let hall and beltre go.
The “he hopes he doesn’t have to exercise his player option” sounds to me like Beltre hopes the $10M option vests. 22 ABs to go.
no; what he’s saying is he hopes that he gets the feeling from Boras (AND HE WILL) that either the Sox or another club will offer him more than 1 year and 10 million.
he’s not saying that he hopes his option vests, because it doesn’t ‘vest” when he gets the 22 plate appearances. What happens is it increases if he so chooses to use it (AND HE WON’T).
I personally think the Sox will be the ones to sign Beltre long term. If you follow the Sox closely you know that if you are a Theo Epstien guy you are a Sox target for life. (Lugo, Drew, Salty and Beltre himself are all evidence of this). I don’t see the Sox being outbid for his services after Theo drooling over him for years and him finally being right there for the taking and him not costing themselves a draft pick.
The Sox have witnessed first hand that he’s a gamer, will play thru injury, and ultimately is healthy. I think this year is proof of 3 things: his numbers suffered due to safeco, last year inparticular was a fluke due to multiple injuries AND he’s somewhat of a contract year player.
That being said i think everyone now know’s what to expect if he is playing on a multi year deal. 25 bombs .290 avg with great defense (and don’t give me the error total being high BS either b/c if you watch the games; the plays he makes and the balls he gets to other 3rd baseman wouldn’t be even close)
I say the sox give him 2 years 26 million with vesting options for 2013 and 2014 based on whatever they negotiate. I like the plate appearances clause myself b/c it forces the player to want AB’s no matter what his particular numbers are.
If the sox do this and negotiate something with Ortiz where next year’s option is put together with a 1 year extension (think 2 year deal worth 16 million) with an option after that they will be fine. Youkilis, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Cameron, Beckett, Dice K, Varitek and VMART can’t ALL be hurt again next year for months on end can they????
Excellent points. Theo has always lusted after guys who are/were far more valuable than their public perceptions.
Werth has got one more World Series to win before he skips town for the big bucks
God, I’d love to see the Red Sox pay their $100 million for Jayson “Matt Holiday” Werth and then just get plain old Jayson Werth
Except the Red Sox wouldn’t pay him $100 or anywhere close to that. When was the last time they gave a player a $100 million contract? There’s no reason to believe they will start now, especially for a player like Werth.
First off, I don’t see Werth getting close to a $100MM contract. Second, what makes you think Werth’s production will fall off drastically once he leaves the Phillies? Before 2010, his home/road splits are really not that bad. He should have a few more seasons in him of being a legitimate middle of the order hitter. I see him getting $13-14MM per over 3-4 years.
Scott Boras thinks $100 million
It’s Boras’ MO to shoot very high so when his client has to “settle” for a lesser contract (i.e, one more in line with his talents), it appears that the team is getting somewhat of a discount.
Color me shocked! Scott Boras also positioned Oliver Perez as a comparable player to Sandy Koufax.
Production falling off after leaving the Phillies and heading to the AL East? Example? See: Burrell, Pat
Because Pat Burrell and Jayson Werth are the same player……
The same player, no. Werth has more defense behind him and more average, but certainly not the consistent “power” in his bat like Burrell did.
I think, however, that you’ll see a similar fall off in production in Werth like was seen in Burrell, and they are about the same age..
Other than them being similar and age and both being Philly players, what’s your reasoning behind that?
Similar age, both coming from the Phillies, about 30 points of average difference…but Burrell hit quite a bit more homers.
I dunno, I just think he’ll drop off. Won’t know until next year..
That is one of the more baseless claims I’ve heard in a while.
At least he’s willing to be honest. 😛
I agree, Werth was always a fairly productive player…he just never got a chance to play everyday until Philly. Even though he did just sign on with Boras, he’s not a $100MM player. He’s a quality corner outfielder with a great arm who usually obliterates lefties and can hold his own against righties. That’s about a $65MM contract over 3 years, in my guess
So you’re saying he’s worth over $21MM per year?
Oops, I meant to say over 4 years. I’m sure Boras will make comparisons to Jason Bay and I was thinking he could end up with a similar type contract.
Didin’t Manny get one
If I were the Sox, I would keep the outfield in tact so they can possibly let Beltre go, move youkilis to third incase they can make a trade for A-Gon or Prince. Productive outfielders are not that hard to acquire and a bat the quality of Gonzales and Fielder are top notch. Just my 2 cents
The Padres are in a place to contend. A-Gon isn’t going anywhere.
They still will not be able to afford to keep him and will have no other choice but to trade him
Maybe, but it won’t be until closer to the trade deadline next season and only if they are out of contention.
which probably is the likely scenario, because they would want to see if this season was a fluke or if they are really a competitive team. I still think in the future Gonzalez will be playing somewhere else.
That’s really not a groundbreaking statement and it is widely assumed that SD will not be handing him a $20MM+ annual salary when he hits free agency. The point was, in response to your original statement, that there is almost zero chance that he will be heading to the Red Sox in the offseason.
However, productive right-handed power bats are extremely hard to find, believe it or not.
There’s a reason why guys like Rowand, Gary Matthews Jr., Carlos Lee, Matt Holliday have gotten big contracts in recent years…even guys like Pat Burrell and Jose Guillen keep getting chances. With the rise of lefty specialists, teams are constantly looking for middle-of-the-order power bats to try to get some lineup balance.
Man I hope the Sox have learned that NO player and I mean NO player is worth a 5 year contract! You are always paying for what they did in the past not the future and it’s a horrible way to run a team! Let the kids develop, then when you are only missing 1-2 pieces then fill in with FA’s. They have a great farm system it’s just gonna take a year or 2 to have all the pieces in place… Yes that means next year may truely be a bridge year, but then again, a few surprise kids and you could be in the thick of it. With TB taking a step back this fall Sox could contend for the wild card next year..
I’m pretty close to full agreement. In rare cases you find a premier hitter available in the prime of his life, and then you pony up for 5 years if you have to. That describes Manny when the Sox got him. It does not describe Werth.
The Red Sox need to focus on re-signing Beltre and possibly V-Mart and let Jayson Bay…er…Werth sign elsewhere. The Sox also need to steer clear of Prince Fielder who’s trending to be the next Mo Vaughn. Not the Mo Vaughn that played for the Red Sox, but the large one that played for the Angels and Mets.
I would love to see Beltre come back. People are going to argue it but that’s just my opinion. As for Werth, we could use him. If we were able to land him Cameron seems to factor out of the equation. You stick what we hope to be a healthy Ellsbury back in center, and Werth in left. Kalish projects to be the RF once Drew is gone so one thing we NEED is a left or center fielder. Werth fits that, so does Crawford.
A corner outfielder is a corner outfielder. Arm strength is the only real difference between LF and RF.
Awesome analysis.
I thought so.
I wouldn’t mind having Bill hall come off the bench. He can play just about everywhere as previously stated, and he has a little pop in his bat. He won’t cost too much as a FA, then why not resign him.
Because Jed Lowrie would likely be close to as effective out of the utility role. I don’t trust Lowrie to stay on the field in a full time capacity, but I’d say the utility spot is his for the taking. Unless some other team comes knocking offering $1.25 on the dollar for Lowrie (Which I’d say is highly unlikely), I expect him to be the utility infielder next year.
Beyond that, a lot of people think that Hall will try to see if he can get a job with a team where he’ll get more playing time. He’s awful hitting for average, but he’s flashed some good power this year. Someone might take a flyer on him this year.
The Pirates could use Jed Lowrie. He’s an upgrade over Ronny Cedeno at SS and will play more than he would staying with the Red Sox. Lowrie was hurt most of this season, so maybe he will come cheap.
Considering how useful Lowrie would be in a utility capacity, I really don’t think the Sox will part with him unless a team overpays a bit. He’s one of those guys who’s not worth much in a trade but could be useful if you have him already, which is why I don’t think he’ll be traded unless it’s as part of a package.
stay clear of werth. look into trading for these players. russel martin, andre ethier, jaems loney, david wright, miguel cabrera, adrian gonzalez.
The A-Gon thing has been beaten to death, but why the hell would the Tigers trade Miggy?
tigers arent trading theyre best player
Based on his power numbers this year, Hall could be a starter on a bad team. Failing that, I’d like to see the Red Sox make him an offer as a bench player. No way his option gets picked up.
I’ve been saying for a couple days now that I think Bill Hall would be a great fit in an Indians uniform next year. Price has to be right, but he fills several needs.
Right now…Nix, Marte, and Valbuena are playing 3B. Nix has some pop (double digit HRs) but horrible defensively at 3B (he’s a solid 2B though). Best served as a utility guy really. Valbuena is a 2B. He’s still young so hoping he gets another shot at AAA. Marte is arby eligible…he’ll be non-tendered.
So do they give Nix the job? Or let Goedert (20+ HRs in AAA this year) a shot? Problem there is he makes Nix look like a gold glover at 3B. Chisenhall is going to be up at somepoint (our top prospect)….but not opening day, and probably not til the All-Star break at the earliest.
Hall is an above average defensive 3B. Can also fill in some in LF (Grady coming back from knee surgery), 2B (Donald still shaky) and even SS (AC struggling/injuried too much).
He’d get way more playing time in Cleveland than Boston.
Money would obviously have to be right though. Tribe has some money to play with if they want. $3.5M on a 1year deal with an option would work for the Tribe I’m guessing. Not sure on Hall though (Detroit makes a lot of sense too if Inge leaves).
I think the BoSox are gonna have a hard time getting Hall to stay unless he decides he wants to win more than play.
Russel Martin is coming off a broken hip, as a catcher I’m not sure that’s a good buy! No way Detroit parts with Miquel C, nor the Pads AG. Ethier and Kemp might be obtainable would be buying both low. might be able to biy low on Iennetta from Rockies too let him compete with Salty for catching duties.
Hall will stay to fill role of 5th OF and 2nd INF utility. He has pop and could hit for higher average if he would square nup his stance somewhat. $$$ @ $2.5-3M +incentives based upon PA in 2011.
MacDonald will be resigned as 4th OF @ $.5M + incentives
Theo will sign Beltre for 4yrs/$$$ 55-60M with incentive clauses based upon AB
Theo will sign V-art for 4yrs/$$$ 45-48M with incentives based upon games caught
possible trade w/Mets…Ellsbury/Scutaro/Coello/Okajima for K-Rod, Reyes
possible trade w/Cubs… Beckett/Anderson for Zambrano
Zambrano is trouble no way Theo goes for him…
But K-Rod is ok? I’m not real sure why a red Sox fan would be interested in K-rod or Zambrano
The guy is frustrated….injuries, playing for Lou and playing on a lousy team….He still has lottsa talent…Â when focused he can be exceptional…and Beckett has become a headcase in his own right.. so, why not??
Zambrano at Fenway?!?!?! Thats a ticking time bomb! No way that trade ever happens
I can’t see the Red Sox taking Zambrano in exchange for anybody unless they also get Soto. Not sure the Mets have anyone who could cause the Red Sox to accept K-Rod.
Odd-year Beckett is going to be much improved over 2010.
I wouldnt give Anderson for Zambrano and that ridiculous contract!!! Your kidding right?
Beckett has an awfully big contract too! Cubs are looking for a 1B and Youk is gonna be around for a while. Maybe Theo could expand the deal to include Papelbon for Marmol, eh?
Beckett actually has good peripherals though. He is a bounce back candidate while Zambrano is nothing.
Peripherals??? Meaning? What?  Beckett can see well out of the corner of his eyes?
The guy stunk up the house during most of his starts…. when considering the huge contract he was given this year….he has to be labeled a bum! I watched him enough times this season to know he his grossly over rated! IMHO, its a toss up between he and Lackey as to who is the bigger rip off artist…
Marco Scutaro isn’t going anywhere… He’s the bridge to Jose Iglesias
I’m not disagreeing with you, because you are likely right, but I think there could be at least a slim chance that they see what the interest is for Scutaro with the idea of giving Lowrie a shot at SS, if he could stay on the field for an entire season I think Lowrie could be a more productive SS than Scutaro.
Lowrie gave the Sox some good at bats, but I wouldn’t replace Marco Scutaro with him. Scutaro should finish his deal, and if Iglesias needs more seasoning, either find another SS for the season or at least until Jose comes up, or give Scutaro another deal.
Again I think you are probably right, but I think it is likely that there will be a discussion about giving Lowrie a shot. I think they almost HAVE to discuss it, Lowrie was supposed to be well above average (he was the top offensive player in the Sox system in ’07), but we’ve never had the chance to see what he can really do for a full season. But I also think in the end the most likely scenario is if we get to see him play every day it’s with another team.
Inglesais, is one smooth SS..watched him in SP & thought Sox should keep him on the roster but he hasn’t performed all that well at AA….good but not exceptional.  At least another year away…  Reyes, if he could return to form, could be an exciting addition to Sox INF for 3-4 years..He can hit, run and play good “D” when healthy.   If Beltre stays, V-Mart re-signs and Pedey returns to form… w/Youk on 1st….some INF in 2011…best all around in MLB…
Beltre is a tremendous defensive asset and can put up some great offensive numbers, but if I were a GM I would be hesitant to offer him any more than 1-3 years. He’s simply a different player when he’s playing for a contract.
I’d probably top out–though it’s too high– at Nomar money 4/60 , for Werth. I don’t think that would get done(it didn’t for Nomy either).For Beltre: 3/40 with a club op/buyout for a 4th. This might work for the RS.
How did this Theo season of a defensive team work out for us?
Well ellsbury and cameron were hurt so that is a big part of that. And it wasn’ supposed to be a completely defensive team. It was a team with good defense and good offensive upside (Beltre for example). The fact that this team has how many wins it does with all the injuries it it had is unbelievable.
So you are saying he shouldn’t care about D? I’d say pretty well since the Sawx are 15 games over .500 with a bunch of injuries.
Sub-par catching defense against runners was not anticipated and not compensated for. It forced 2B & SS to play closer to the bag with runners on. Game calling, or lack there of, hurt pitching stats overall. 3B, SS & 1B defense was solid during 1st half. Injuries to Pedroia and Youk weakened right side defense during latter stages of the season. OF defense was adequate. Steady in RF, so-so in CF and shaky in LF with contingent of ham hands and lead feet assigned during the course of the season. On a scale of 1 -10 (10 being perfect), got to give Sox a 7…(average overall, not exceptional in any phase)
This whole running game has become blown out of proportions. You had a case early in the season but V-Mart has picked it up and is near 21% CS% now. In comparison, Jorge Posada has a 17% and Cervelli is lower. Now I haven’t heard of the running game against the Yankees killing them despite the fact runners are more successful and have only stolen 4 bases less than against V-Mart. It is an overrated problem that has nothing to do the if defense. Just Boston’s media making noise. And how can you judge game calling as a fan? a pitcher throws and 3-1 curve and it hangs for a homerun. A fan is tempted to blame the pitch selection when it had nothing to do with that. I don’t see that as a problem either.
“What one sees depends upon where one sits”…. As for TEE…they are in 1st because they emphasize offense, while, supposedly the Red sox emphasis in 2010 is/was defense. So comparing the V-Mart/V-Tek with the Posada/Cervelli tandem is like comparing apples and oranges. Here are the catcher defensive  ratings for 90 MLB players as of July 30. V-tek rated 14th, V-mart rated 86th..
Â
Â
Rank
Player
Tm
PA
FERuns
TERuns
PBWPRns
CSRuns
Total
1
Yadier Molina
STL
2358
0.0
-0.2
3.3
3.7
6.8
2
Ivan Rodriguez
WSN
1729
0.6
0.4
1.7
1.8
4.5
3
Matt Wieters
BAL
2375
0.8
-0.2
2.5
0.7
3.8
4
Miguel Olivo
COL
1977
0.6
-0.4
-2.0
5.4
3.7
5
Jose Molina
TOR
753
0.2
0.4
-1.1
4.1
3.6
6
Humberto Quintero
HOU
1555
-1.0
0.4
1.8
2.3
3.5
7
Henry Blanco
NYM
837
0.3
0.4
0.2
2.2
3.2
8
Lou Marson
CLE
1696
0.6
0.4
-0.9
3.0
3.1
9
Carlos Ruiz
PHI
1780
-0.2
1.0
2.4
-0.4
2.8
10
Joe Mauer
MIN
2083
0.7
-0.3
2.5
-0.3
2.5
11
Brian McCann
ATL
2128
-0.8
-0.8
2.1
2.1
2.5
12
Ramon Hernandez
CIN
1808
0.6
1.0
-1.4
2.0
2.2
13
Carlos Santana
CLE
535
0.2
0.3
-0.1
1.6
1.9
14
Jason Varitek
BOS
927
0.3
0.5
1.6
-0.6
1.8
15
Yorvit Torrealba
SDP
1223
-0.4
0.2
1.1
0.9
1.8
16
David Ross
ATL
727
0.2
-0.1
-0.4
1.9
1.7
17
Matt Treanor
TEX
1724
-0.2
0.4
1.4
-0.1
1.6
18
Drew Butera
MIN
495
0.2
-0.2
0.3
1.2
1.5
19
Nick Hundley
SDP
1630
-0.2
-0.1
1.4
0.1
1.2
20
Ryan Hanigan
CIN
860
0.3
-1.0
0.3
1.6
1.2
21
Koyie Hill
CHC
843
0.3
0.5
1.4
-1.0
1.1
22
Carlos Maldonado
WSN
116
0.0
0.1
0.1
1.0
1.1
23
Jason LaRue
STL
471
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.5
0.9
24
Jason Castro
HOU
229
0.1
0.1
-0.4
1.2
0.9
25
Wil Nieves
WSN
1126
0.4
-0.8
1.6
-0.3
0.8
26
Buster Posey
SFG
74
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.8
27
Gerald Laird
DET
1557
0.5
-0.1
0.1
0.4
0.8
28
Jake Fox
OAK
251
-0.7
0.1
0.7
0.5
0.7
29
Ramon Castro
CHW
388
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.7
30
Dioner Navarro
TBR
1123
0.4
-0.8
0.5
0.5
0.6
31
J.R. Towles
HOU
509
0.2
-0.2
0.4
0.3
0.6
32
Craig Tatum
BAL
538
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.6
33
Jason Jaramillo
PIT
747
-0.5
-0.1
0.2
0.8
0.5
34
Alex Avila
DET
1266
-0.3
0.2
-1.6
2.2
0.5
35
Ronny Paulino
FLA
1935
-0.9
-0.4
0.6
1.0
0.4
36
Corky Miller
CIN
328
0.1
0.2
0.4
-0.4
0.3
37
Brian Schneider
PHI
696
0.2
-0.1
0.4
-0.2
0.3
38
Brad Ausmus
LAD
40
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
39
Wilson Ramos
MIN
258
0.1
0.1
0.5
-0.6
0.1
40
Paul Hoover
PHI
220
0.1
-0.4
0.1
0.3
0.1
41
Josh Donaldson
OAK
203
0.1
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.1
42
Landon Powell
OAK
591
-0.6
-0.6
0.9
0.3
0.0
43
Josh Thole
NYM
32
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.1
0.0
44
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
TEX
37
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.1
0.0
45
Jamie Burke
WSN
7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
46
Nick Stavinoha
STL
2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
47
Kurt Suzuki
OAK
1836
0.6
-0.5
0.6
-0.9
-0.1
48
Dane Sardinha
PHI
78
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
49
Kelly Shoppach
TBR
351
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
50
Taylor Teagarden
TEX
369
0.1
-0.3
-0.3
0.4
-0.1
51
Jake Fox
BAL
6
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.3
-0.2
52
Bobby Wilson
LAA
423
0.1
0.2
0.7
-1.3
-0.3
53
Eliezer Alfonzo
SEA
402
-1.4
0.2
0.6
0.2
-0.3
54
Brett Hayes
FLA
219
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.5
-0.3
55
Bryan Anderson
STL
46
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
-0.4
56
Rob Johnson
SEA
1531
0.5
-0.1
-2.5
1.7
-0.4
57
John Baker
FLA
752
0.2
-0.6
0.5
-0.8
-0.5
58
Paul Phillips
COL
172
0.1
-0.4
-0.1
-0.1
-0.5
59
Donny Lucy
CHW
190
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.7
-0.6
60
Ryan Budde
LAA
121
0.0
0.1
-0.5
-0.2
-0.6
61
Jonathan Lucroy
MIL
601
-0.6
0.3
-1.3
0.8
-0.7
62
John Jaso
TBR
1333
-1.1
0.2
-0.3
0.4
-0.8
63
Chad Moeller
NYY
123
0.0
0.1
-0.5
-0.4
-0.8
64
John Buck
TOR
2161
0.7
0.7
-0.9
-1.3
-0.8
65
Geovany Soto
CHC
2042
-0.1
0.1
1.0
-2.0
-1.0
66
Francisco Cervelli
NYY
1625
0.5
-0.1
0.9
-2.3
-1.0
67
Josh Bard
SEA
265
-0.7
0.1
-0.1
-0.4
-1.0
68
A.J. Ellis
LAD
425
0.1
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-1.0
69
A.J. Pierzynski
CHW
2271
0.0
1.2
-0.6
-1.6
-1.0
70
Miguel Montero
ARI
499
0.2
0.3
-1.3
-0.1
-1.0
71
Kevin Cash
HOU
705
0.2
0.4
-1.0
-0.7
-1.1
72
Rod Barajas
NYM
2080
-1.6
1.1
1.1
-1.8
-1.2
73
Gregg Zaun
MIL
1095
-0.4
0.1
-0.1
-0.8
-1.2
74
Russell Martin
LAD
2474
0.1
-1.6
-0.9
1.2
-1.2
75
Jeff Mathis
LAA
672
0.2
-0.1
-0.8
-0.5
-1.3
76
Chris Snyder
ARI
2002
0.7
0.6
-1.1
-1.4
-1.3
77
Eli Whiteside
SFG
865
0.3
0.5
-1.9
-0.1
-1.3
78
Brayan Pena
KCR
286
-0.7
0.2
-0.3
-0.7
-1.5
79
Jason Kendall
KCR
2692
-0.6
-1.9
1.2
-0.4
-1.7
80
Max Ramirez
TEX
751
0.2
-0.6
-0.9
-0.8
-2.0
81
Mike Redmond
CLE
672
0.2
-0.1
0.3
-2.7
-2.3
82
Bengie Molina
SFG
1902
0.6
0.5
-2.8
-0.7
-2.4
83
Adam Moore
SEA
641
-1.3
0.3
-1.5
-0.5
-3.0
84
Jorge Posada
NYY
1021
0.3
-0.4
-1.2
-1.8
-3.1
85
Chris Iannetta
COL
720
-0.5
-0.6
-1.0
-1.2
-3.3
86
Victor Martinez
BOS
2066
0.7
0.1
-0.4
-3.9
-3.4
87
George Kottaras
MIL
1338
-0.3
-0.7
0.0
-3.6
-4.6
88
Mike Napoli
LAA
1820
-0.9
-0.5
-2.5
-1.3
-5.1
89
John Hester
ARI
528
0.2
0.3
-3.8
-2.2
-5.5
90
Ryan Doumit
PIT
2244
0.0
0.2
-0.7
-6.3
-6.8ted 86th…
How did the sub-par catching defense against runners force the 2B/SS to play closer to the bag with runners on? Victor’s arm isn’t strong, we know this….but playing closer to the bad doesn’t get the ball to 2B any quicker when a runner is stealing. That makes no sense. If anything, they could play further from the bag knowing they had more time to get to the base with Victor throwing.
I agree with jwredsox. Victor’s defense is not as horrible as the Boston media is making it out to be. It’s not good, but he’s not the worst catcher in baseball like one would think if they only read the boston papers. He can and will be catching still in 4-5 years. He’s as good there as Posada…..not that it’s saying much.
Not only was he slow to get his toss into the air but his accuracy leaves/left a great deal to be desired. With runners on 1st, Pedey was forced to play closer to the bag than fill the gap between 1st & 2nd…. Scutaro had to play straight away at short, rather than on the edge of the grass with runners on…. just to ensure that he could get to the bag and square up for V-Mart. if he threw…
Where in the hell are you getting that A-Gon will not be a FA for 3-4 more years? That’s just plain incorrect.
WHAT????
A. you’re wrong, Gonzalez will be a free agent after next season..
B. The sox wouldnt give up all of those 4 players for anyone, ever… Theo Epstein is not great at signing free agents, but when it comes to trades he gets fair value almost every time… 1 year of AGON is not worth 15 total years of 4 of your best 10 players under 25 years old
C. go do some research before you continue to embarass yourself on this site… most of the folks on here commenting are knowledgable baseball fans
No way is he only worth 24 million for 2 years plus an option.
I have to believe that teams will think he’s comparable to Bay offensively, and he’s around the same age. Plus you have to add the fact that he’s a much better athlete, much better defensively, has a better arm and is a much better baserunner.
I’d say someone ponies up and overpays for him slightly 5 years 15 per or 4 years 55 with a vesting option for year 5 worth 17 million.
Good base runners get picked off, Good defensive players make boneheaded errors. players with great arms get run on and don’t throw the guy out. great clutch hitters come up with 2 outs in the 9th with the tieing and winning runs on base and strike out. what’s your point?? One play doesn’t mean he’s bad. If Rivera blows the lead in game 7 of the world series this year, does that mean he’s not the greatest closer of all time??? i didn’t think so..
and to defend my earlier post. for the three years before free agency bays and werths numbers are as follows (and i averaged these out per year b/c i’m not going to try and type it all for 3 years and have the format make sense to anyone):
OPS: Bay .854 Werth .881
AVG: Bay .267 Werth .278
HR’s: Bay 29 Werth 29
RBI: Bay 101 Werth 92
You can say that the above stats are comparable to say the least, as a Sox fan i got to watch Bay for a year and a half but he’s in no way the athlete Werth is… but to me, the huge difference is below: *(again these are 3 year averages)*
UZR/150: Bay -11.57 Werth 12.57 (yes that is over 34 points difference)
WAR: Bay 2.40 Werth 4.73 (yes that’s nearly 2.5 wins per year difference)
Add to this the fact that Werth can play center and can steal a base (27 steals for Bay from 07 to 09 and 51 for Werth from 08 to 10).
**note** the stats for each player are for the 3 years prior to them becoming a free agent.
Yeah, you can’t just look at the last 3 years and say Werth is worth as much as Bay. Doesn’t work that way, even with Boras as his agent.
I think some teams may get a Rowand vibe out of Werth. It’s a bit offbase and not fair, but just something I could see happening. Then again, Rowand made great money so we shall see. Rowand was 2 years younger and a more natural CFer though.
Disagree some on B. Theo is pretty medicore at trades. He’s just got such a great farm system he can get away with overpaying for players.
Though do agree, he’s not trading all that for AGon (they aren’t trading Bard when Papelbon is a free agent same time as AGon). Even Kelly, Lars, and Kalish would be a bit extreme.
I agree with ronny’s point on B. Theo has been reluctant to give up prospects in the past for very good players. I doubt it would be different now.
Ahhhh… yes you can look at just 3 years. Werth was what they call a late bloomer, he was buried on the depth chart and then when his time came (later in his career than most) he produced. Just becuase he made his major league debut in 2002 doesn’t mean he was a full time player.
Kevin Youkilis was also somewhat of a late bloomer who didn’t get a full time job until 27 years old. Does that mean that Pat Burrell is worth a better contract than him because he was given a full time job on a team that wasn’t as deep as Youk’s, which is the same reason Bay was given his job so early in Pittsburg and werth not so much in LA/PHilly??
If you guys really believe that Jason Bay is a better player than Jeyson Werth becuase he was given a full time job 3 years earlier than Werth than you are delusional.
and lets also not pick and choose are stats here. Werth was brought up in 2002 as a SEPTEMBER CALL UP and from 2002, 2003 and 2004 combined he didn’t play as much as Bay did ON A TERRIBLE team in 2004. When Werth finally was given the job in philly on a full time basis he started to play very well.
The only way you can fairly compare the two players is to take the 3 seasons that preceeded the free agency for each of them, if you want to take into affect the full careers of the players than you would have to include Bays terrible season this year.
I wasn’t trying to compare their whole careers i was trying to make an educated guess based on how REAL baseball GM’s would evaluate a player going into free agency..
not how a guy who thinks Adrian Gonzalez is signed till 2035 and clearly doesn’t watch daily baseball would think…
Trust me when i say that Jeyson werth will be getting a bigger deal than Bay, the only way he doesn’t is IF he takes a team friendly deal to stay in Philly (which bay didn’t last year, and thus this comparisn and my whole point would be moot.).
I didn’t even read this BS earlier, so in response to this as i laugh till i cry…
keep in mind all of the reasons for Bay being more productive in his earlier seasons, remember this……
BAY HAS 1400 MORE PLATE APPEARANCES THAN WERTH… that’s nearly 3 full seasons….
the main reason for this being that the Blue Jays brought werth up much too early and he obviously didn’t have as much playing time once he moved onto the Dodgers and Phils (better teams than bay’s).
if you don”t understand why you can’t compare HR’s, RBI and steals (etc.) when one player has 3 extra seasons worth of at bats than i am done wasting my time trying to get my point across.
Its not werth’s fault that the Blue Jays mis handled him and his “years of service” are therefore mis represented….
I didn’t tell you that Jeyson werth is better than Bay ever was… I was simply stating that Werth is a superior all around player than Bay over the 3 year span that preceeded each players free agency. and there is no way that i am wrong in saying that.
read my post one more time if you think that is what i said than that explains why you are disagreeing with me on that point.
werth is superior to Bay at this point in their careers, what happened in the early to middle part of the decade was mostly because Bay was on a terrible team and got tons of playing time and hit in the middle of the lineup while Werth was on above avg teams and was farther down the depth chart.
give me the 4 prospects for a total of 15 or so years over Agon or Fielder for a season or two…and give me Werth over Bay any day of the week…
and no, i don’t think i can base your entire baseball knowledge on one comment, everyone is wrong everyone once in a while. and i am not always right; there are a ton of very smart people on this site who have proven me wrong over and over.. but on these two points i think im in the right….
you’re right, i’m wicked angry that Bay left the Red Sox… that’s why i’m trying my best to prove how Werth is better than he is…
I’m wicked angry that they didn’t pay him 15 million a year for the performance that he’s put up this year…
He played for the blue jays minor league teams and was traded before he developed into a mlb ready player…
Also, since i’m over 12 years old, when i refer to the Red Sox i don’t use “us, we and ours”…..
I’m done wasting my time with this BS..
im glad Bay isn’t with the sox, i’d take Werth if the price is right but not if they would have to overpay. Werth is the superior athlete, and in my opinion the better baseball player. he’s a better baserunner (even if he got picked off on a once in a lifetime mistake), he’s a better defender, he’s got a way better arm, he can play all three spots, he’s a better hitter. He’s much more likely to be worth the money in the late years of the contract.
Werth is just as likely to disappear, not earn his contract & end up as the white GMJ. Werth did nothing for years. Don’t give me that he didn’t get a chance BS. He did get chances, he just didn’t do anything with them. I doubt he’ll be worth what he’s paid in his late 30’s.
Stop acting like you know how “real” GM’s use to make free agent choices? Don’t see how Werth is a better hotter than Bay. They are similar except Bay has more power. No way JW get more money than Bay.
Why all the Bay hate? He played really well in Boston & has been hurt this year. LOL @ wicked angry? Are you sure you’re not 12?
Stop blaming the Jays. Werth crapped his chances away. What about when he was with LA, that’s their fault too?
Bay was more productive because he was better. He got all those extra PA’s because he earned them. Stop acting like it was a fluke or luck.
Werth will flop if he leaves Philly ,the only team he’s been a top hitter on. His away numbers are average at best.
I like how JacksTigers stop providing his “facts” about five posts ago now…
Anyway, I see the Sox offering a J.D. Drew like contract (5/70) to Werth. As has been stated, he’s a comparable offensive bat to Bay over the last few seasons, and his defense is vastly superior. Just because the Sox couldn’t put it together this season doesn’t mean they are devaluing defense, and a 34 point UZR differential is crazy.
If you look at Werth’s hit chart, it looks like he could average a few more Monster-induced doubles and homers as well. I’m thinking a 285/360/525 split line, with about 25 HR and 85 RBI, with spectacular defense, will lead the Sox to make a big run, getting him signed by late December/early January.
Stop dissing Bay’s numbers with bullsh!t excuses. bay put up those numbers because he was/is a very good hitter. Werth was not always on above average teams. Bottom line if he was so good he would’ve played. Those 3 years include Werth playing in a bandbox with mediocre road splits. Funny how you didn’t mention that.
I wish i had time to make up another name, log in and write pretty much the same argument as the “other me” so it looked like someone agreed with me.
I will bet “all the dignity that i apparently have left” Werth gets more than Bay.. (again unless it’s to the Phils on a discount)