A few links to check out as the Padres live to fight another day…
- The Marlins told interim manager Edwin Rodriguez that he will be evaluated after the season and there is no managerial commitment for 2011 yet, according to Joe Capozzi of The Palm Beach Post (Twitter links).
- Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun says that the Orioles brain trust and new manager Buck Showalter have already had "extensive conversations" about the direction they want to go this offseason.
- ESPNBoston.com's Gordon Edes hears that Daisuke Matsuzaka would be willing to waive his no trade clause if it sent him to the West Coast. John Hickey of AOL Fanhouse says the Mariners might be willing to discuss a trade with the Sox, as long as the price is low (both Twitter links).
- The Phillies have asked their entire coaching staff to return for the 2011 season, writes MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. It's no sure thing they'll all return though; GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said he's had at least one inquiry on a coach for a managerial opening.
- Josh Byrnes told Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links)that he'd be interested in returning to a GM role if the situation was right. Rosenthal didn't ask him about the Mets, as Omar Minaya is technically still their GM.
- Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun writes that Jeremy Guthrie has graduated to being a "go-to starter" and shouldn't be traded by the Orioles.
- Dejan Kovacevic of The Pittsburgh-Post Gazette says that Pirates team president Frank Coonelly and owner Bob Nutting will soon decide the fate of GM Neal Huntington and other baseball personnel, and that Huntington will have input into the future of manager John Russell if he's retained. Both are under contract through next season, but Huntington's job appears to be safer. The GM was non-committal when discussing Russell during an interview Thursday night.
- Adrian Beltre has put himself into a real nice position heading into free agency, writes Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe. The third baseman said that he "will give everyone a chance" when it comes to listening to contract offers, but ultimately he will do what's best for him and his family.
- Dodgers GM Ned Colletti told ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider req'd) that he is not looking to trade Matt Kemp, but he will certainly listen to any offers that come his way. "But there's not going to be any shopping on our part," said Colletti. He expressed a similar sentiment about the team's other "core younger guys."
- Even though he is on his way out as Blue Jays manager, Cito Gaston told MLB.com's Jordan Bastian that he feels the team will need some veteran relievers next season. Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, and Kevin Gregg could all depart via free agency this winter.
It’s going to be awesome this off-season with all of the Beltre rumors. I really think he will sign with the Angels along with Carl Crawford.
Ned Colletti is a liar and a crap G.M.
I think Colletti gets a hard time in LA with the ownership issues that we both know about and don’t know about. He’s signed some awful contracts (Schmidt, Jones), but I legitimately feel his hand was forced in some of those deals. He maneuvered the Manny deal incredibly well, and hasn’t sacrificed the farm as much as most think. Carlos Santana was a deal made for Blake when 3B was a void and Russell Martin was still thought to be the catcher of the future. He never cast off Kershaw, Billingsly, Kemp, or Ethier. I think he’s getting a fairly bad wrap in LA.
Sounds like something a Giants fan would say. Propping up one of the worst GMs in recent memory. What do you think of the Dotel and Lilly/Theriot deals?
Gregg will not be leaving. Jays should pick up his option at 4.75 I believe. A guy with 35+saves at that price is good value. Letting Purcey/Carlson be the lefty specialists should work.
Picking up a hard throwing righty would be a wise move
Kerry Wood?
Kerry Wood?
I think they keep one of the veteran’s around for the pen. Might as well be Gregg. He’s pitched well enough for them, and picking up an option is about as easy negotiation gets. Like do nothing. Sign the papers, notify the player. Bye.
Actually, I would take the pick for Gregg and keep Frasor since he likely wont get signed by any team as a Type A. Who knows how good Gregg is next season, he always puts up inconsistent seasons.
problem with Gregg is you never know from one season to the next what you are going to get. Fans of teams he has pitched for previously were glad to see him go, even when his stats looked good for the Fish, he walked a tight rope on way, way too many occasions and was one person Luria did not get hammered for with regards to being cheap on.
I have a hard time seeing anyone giving him 4.75m on the market with his shaky past and problems he has with the gopher ball at most in opportune times on occasions. setup guy is what many teams that would be looking at him at, not a closer at nowhere near that figure is my 2C.
I bet anything beltre goes to the west coast. Most likely the angels. I do think Boston will get Crawford. They need an OF, and a run producer. Then I bet they trade for ramirez and Marshall of the cubs.
I think the Cameron/Hermidia experiment was a failure, so picking up Crawford would be a good idea. Having said that, Theo could see the returns of Youkillis, Pedroia and Ellsbury as important as making a free agent signing.
I agree with the second sentence. I really don’t think the Sox should go for Crawford or Werth though. Crawford is not really a run producer and they have a leadoff hitter in Ellsbury and in Fenway they have proven that they really don’t need a GG left fielder to win(Ted Williams, Jim Rice, Mike Greenwell, Manny Ramirez, Jason Bay) so Crawford would really be a waste of resources.
I would like to see the Sox keep Beltre and V-Mart only because 3B and Ca are so thin around the league and 4 year deals to them would not be devastating. If they keep them and have a full year of Dustin, Youk and Ellsbury the Red Sox will be fine.
What if we traded ellsbury and a low prospect for Grady sizemore? We need a big bat in our lineup also. Plus we need to rebuild our bullpen compltetly. Like sign Brian Fuentes and jj putz and trade for Sean Marshall. I’d let beltre go bc then this year/next we could trade/sign Adrian Gonzalez. V-mart should/is our biggest priority.
If the Indians would go for that I am all for it. Problem is I really don’t think they would. Then there is the problem of what the Sox would do for a leadoff guy as I think Grady should hit lower in the order with his power and batting eye.
As for the bullpen, they don’t need expensive “name” pitchers, just two guys that can come in the 7th and hold a lead for Bard and Papelbon. Putz would be great and all but I think with Papelbon already commanding over $10 million I don’t think they need another expensive middle reliever.
Adrian Gonzalez is awesome. I would love to see what he could do in a park like Fenway! And he’s very good at first base. The only problem is the Sox already have a slick fielding first baseman who can OPS over .900, Youkilis. What the Sox need is a 3B and Beltre is the best fit. Even if he only gives them 80% of what he did this year in offence, he’s worth it for the glove.
youkilis can play third. Plus Grady sizemore for ellsbury+prospect would be a pretty even trade. Scutaro would be our leadoff hitter. He did a really good job this year being leadoff hitter.
Youk probably could play third, but not up to Beltre’s abiltiy(not many can) and he is over 30 now and would essentially be learning 3B all over again. The status quo would be better.
And Scutaro had a .333 OBP which is around his lifetime average. That is not a really good job as leadoff hitter. Most teams want .350 minimum so I would rather have someone who can get on base more leading off.
Scutaro and jeters stats r basically the same I’d not better than jeters. Okay keep youk at first the. Trade for either reynolds, wright, ramirez for this year, then sign Adrian gonzalez. Trade youk and get a good third baseman. Youk could fetch us a top prospect or two.
I think you think your playing a video game. Do you think other GM’s are going to go for this garbage you suggest or not make any attempts at some of these players. Like I said you aren’t playing franchise mode in a video game dude
How many strikeouts would Reynolds get in the AL east? 260?
Scutaro probably won’t even be starting for most of the year…if Jed Lowrie can stay healthy I think its his job. Also, you can’t bank on signing Adrian Gonzalez. I’m sure Theo would like to have it happen, but you can’t pass up signing Beltre just hoping you can get Gonzalez for 2012. What you aren’t realizing is that if they did sign Gonzalez it would basically make Youkilis a long term DH which minimizes his value tremendously. Sure he might be able to play average 3rd base defense for Gonzalez’s first season or two, but what about the next 5 or 6? Honestly Youkilis is on the same level as Gonzalez in production, and doesn’t cost the crazy amount that Gonzalez would make.
what does Grady Sizemore and Carlos Beltran have in common? they both were promising hitters who had massive declines that get worse every year
id like to see them trade for prince fielder myself, lock him up longterm. move youk back to 3rd, resign vmart, trade dice-k for a prospect and reliever.
cameron and ellsbury were both injured the whole year so we dont know that works. adding a bat like jose guillen, eric hinske, xavier nady as a backup OF/DH wouldnt hurt either.
They do not need an outfielder, they need a bullpen, they have 6 legitimate outfielders, JD Drew, Ellsbury (forget his injury year he will be back), Nava, Cameron, Reddick, and McDonald.. Bullpen is number one need of that club
keep huntington but fire russell
I think what cito is insinuating is that the jays should keep brian tallet. lol
Here’s my 2011 lineup,
ss-scutaro
2B pedroia
lf Crawford
1b youkilis
c Martinez
dh ortiz
3b aramis ramirez
cf Grady sizemore
rf drew
1.With a good spring training and Lowries .323/.401/.545 carear line vs. LHP and 2010 overall of .276/.366/.491 a Scutaro/Lowrie platoon is a strong possibility.
2.Assuming Ells is traded i’d rather have pedrioa’s 3.9 pitches per AB and .369 OBP to Scutaro’s 3.84/.336
3.A healthy two months next season and the indians could get a better deal at the deadline so i dont see him geting traded this offseason.
4.I like Ramirez as a buy low type, i like him more if the cubs wan’t Dice-K, unless the sox lose out on V-mart and Beltre i dont see the sox scroungeing for offense if they do indeed plan to pick up Ortiz’s option.
5.With Pujols, A-gone and Prince being free agents after next year it’s possible the sox give Youk a “bridge” year at 3B and go after a rehab 1B.
my line up if they play there cards right
CF.Ellsbury
LF.Crawford
2B.Pedrioa
1B.Youkilis
C.Martinez
3B.Beltre
DH.Dunn
LF.Drew/Cameron
SS.Scutaro/Lowrie
the Back up plan line up
CF.Ellsbury
2B.Pedrioa
3B.Youkilis
C.Martinez
LF.Werth
DH.Ortiz
1B.Derrek Lee
RF.Drew/Cameron
SS.Scutaro/Lowrie
wild card line up
CF.Ellsbury
2B.Pedrioa
3B.Youkilis
C.Martinez
1B.Konerko
LF.Ordonez
DH.Ramirez
RF.Drew
SS.Scutaro/Lowrie
Oh Crap were 6 games out again line up
CF.Ellsbury
2B.Pedrioa
1B.Youkilis
DH.Ortiz
3B.Miguel Tejada
RF.Drew
C.Saltalamacchia
LF.Cameron/Kalish
SS.Scutaro/Lowrie
At least we Have Jon Lester bobble head night line up
CF.Ellsbury
2B.Pedrioa
1B.Youkilis
DH.Ortiz
RF.Drew
LF.Cameron
3B.Inge
C.Saltalamaccia
SS.Scutaro
My Best bet line up
CF.Ellsbury
2B.Pedrioa
C.Martinez
3B.Youkilis
LF.Werth (Don’t see crawford wanting to stay in the AL East)
DH.Ortiz
1B.Lee or Pena (only 1B or 3B i can see going for a 1 year deal beside maybe berkman and Tejada)
RF.Drew/Cameron
SS.Scutaro/Lowrie
Welcome to the site Theo.
ramirez is a cub next year.
Adrian Beltre, for my money, is too much of a risk to throw a large contract at. He’s only a .300 hitter when he’s in the midst of a contract season, his on-base percentage usually hovers around .310 to .320 (unless free agency is pending), but he still has a good glove at the hot corner. Looking at his reference sheet I was shocked that he was only 31–seems like he’s been in the league twenty years, but he signed before he discarded the Pampers, so that explains it.
Plus he’s got pretty good Carear totals for a 31 year old assuming he plays to 38 healthy and average 158 hits, 29 2B’s, 18 Hrs, and 80+ RBI he could finish with
3000 hits, 600 2B’s, 400 Hrs and 1600 RBI’s. With his gold gloves and those numbers im sure Scott Boras will push the Future hall of famer price tag.
Best Teams to sign with if he wants those numbers
1.Boston. Balanced line up, Thiers a big friggen wall in LF.
2.Atlanta. Balanced line up, Play the Nationals alot.
3.LA hit and run alot, Beltre swings alot
Bad.
1.Detriot. Play at Safeco 2
2.Oakland. Play at Safeco 1.5
wild cards
1.Huston (bad)
2.Giants (Not as bad)
3.Cubs (wouldnt be surprised if it happened)
Look, I’m a big Beltre fan, but assuming it’s a bad thing for him to “play at SafeCo” is just a ridiculous statement. I hear it ALL THE FRICKING TIME. Look at the ballpark dimensions of all the A.L. West stadiums. They are all pretty frickin’ close, with the exception of the A’s Colliseum being about 15-20 feet shorter in Left Center/Right Center than the other three parks. And considering all he does is pull the ball (he never hits it anywhere NEAR left center) all four A.L. West parks would be identical for him.
SafeCo didn’t hurt Beltre’s numbers, Beltre hurt Beltre’s numbers.
Wow, joethewest, you couldn’t be any more wrong. Look at his splits, Safeco killed his numbers. Ballpark dimensions don’t mean anything, you have to look at the ballpark factors, which also say Safeco is murder to righties.
Umm why are we talking about his batting average and obp? The guy has been a career 4 WAR a season player, enough said.
Beltre goes to the A’s or Angels…
Beltre goes to the A’s or Angels…
Right now, as it stands, with all Sox players healthy, I fear Ellsbury more than I do any other Sox player. The ONLY issue I have with him is his ability to stay healthy. Signing Crawford would make the Sox just that more deadly and can create a lot more RBI opps for those hitting behind them. Crawford can rack up 20 hrs and 40 dbls playing half his games in Fenway and collectively, he and Ells can snatch 120 bases easily. A lineup of ….
Crawford
Ellsbury
Pedrioa
Youks
Beltre
Martinez
Ortiz
Drew
Scutaro
…is nasty and Pedroia can become the 2011 version of Tommy Herr circa ‘1985 where he hit 8 hrs but drove in over 100 rbi.
How on earth do you fear Ellsbury more than Pedroia or Youkilis? That’s like a Red Sox fan saying he fears Brett Gardner more than Mark Teixeira or Robinson Cano.
Right now, as it stands, with all Sox players healthy, I fear Ellsbury more than I do any other Sox player. The ONLY issue I have with him is his ability to stay healthy. Signing Crawford would make the Sox just that more deadly and can create a lot more RBI opps for those hitting behind them. Crawford can rack up 20 hrs and 40 dbls playing half his games in Fenway and collectively, he and Ells can snatch 120 bases easily. A lineup of ….
Crawford
Ellsbury
Pedrioa
Youks
Beltre
Martinez
Ortiz
Drew
Scutaro
…is nasty and Pedroia can become the 2011 version of Tommy Herr circa ‘1985 where he hit 8 hrs but drove in over 100 rbi.
Matsuzaka to the Dodgers?
The Seattle Mariners could use a low cost option behind Felix in 2011, with Matsuzaka looking to go west there might be a match. It would be a salary dump for the Red Sox, but they would have to eat 2-3M/Yr.
I don’t know why they would have to eat three million a year. That would put Dice-K on a 2yr/14 million dollar deal. He doesn’t have tremendous value, but he still has enough stuff for someone to gamble on 2yr/20m dollar commitment. I mean he’s only two seasons removed from being a 5 WAR pitcher in the AL East and his career ERA away from Fenway is under 4. I don’t see the Red Sox trading him if they aren’t receiving value and getting no money…he has as much upside being a #5 pitcher as they will be able to find. I think people underrate his value a bit because he is such a disappointment based on initial expectations.
Matsuzaka to Seattle
Justin Smoak to Boston
Only if they throw in Felix too
No. Justin Smoak, while still raw, is far more valuable than Daisuke.
Bye Bye Dice-K
If the M’s are willing to take Dice-K, I think the Red Sox would have to be willing to take back Figgins.
How on earth do you fear Ellsbury more than Pedroia or Youkilis? That’s like a Red Sox fan saying he fears Brett Gardner more than Mark Teixeira or Robinson Cano.
—————————————
Look at Ellsbury when he’s healthy. In 2008 and 2009 Ellsbury was successful in 120 of 143 SB attempts. That’s an 84% success rate. He did that despite a mediocre OBP of around .340. If he reaches base with less than 2 outs he is almost a guarantee to end up being on 2nd base or 3rd base. He is the one player on the Red Sox that can create a run w/o the benefit of a hit. In a close 1 run game I fear him more than I do Pedroia or Youkilis. OBP only shows how many times a player has gotten on base but I wish we had a stat that shows how many times that player put himself in scoring position.
The best I could do was this.
Total # of times a hitter makes it to 1st base via a single, walk, IBB, error or HBP (# of hits- # of XBH + BB + IB + HBP +ROE (reached on error).
Ellsbury = 381 (160 singles, 90 BB, 13 HBP, 5 IBB and 13 ROE) in 1,300 PA
Pedroia = 423 (261 singles, 124 BB, 12 HBP, 4 IBB and 22 ROE) in 1,440 PA
# of times a baserunner advances to 2B off of a stolen base.
Ellsbury = 98 of 381 stolen base opps
Pedroia = 33 of 423 stolen base opps
# of times a runner is SUCCESSFUL in stealing 2nd vs being caught stealing.
Ellsbury = 98 of 116 stolen base attempts for 84% success rate
Pedroia = 33 of 41 stolen base attempts for 80% success rate
# of Doubles and Triples
Ellsbury = 49 dbls and 17 trips = 56
Pedroia = 102 dbls and 3 trips = 105
Then add the # of times the runner successfully steals second, hits a double and hits a triple.
Ellsbury = 98 SB of 2nd, 49 dbls and 17 triples = 164 x he put himself into scoring pos.
Pedroia = 33 SB of 2nd, 102 dbls and 3 triples = 138 x he put himself into scoring pos.
Efficiency of getting into scoring position vs plate appearances independent of a teammate.
Ellsbury = 13% of the time (164 x being in scor pos/1,300 PA)
Pedroia = 10% of the time (138 x being in scor pos/1,440 PA)
That doesn’t take into consideration how many times his speed allowed him to advance to 2nd or 3rd on a sac fly, avoided a double play or advanced on a productive out made but simply how many times he single handidly PUT himself into scoring position.
So in essence Ellsbury is much more likely to INDEPENDENTLY put himself into scoring position than Pedroia is and he has done MUCH more often despite signifigantly less PA (140) and a much lower OBP (about .030 lower).
Now look at the RS% (run scoring percentage). In other words the % of time the runner scores when they are on base.
2008:
Ellsbury @ 46%
Bay @ 44%
Pedroia @ 40%
Youkillis @ 29%
Drew @ 36%
2009:
Ellsbury @ 37%
Bay @ 32%
Pedroia @ 40%
Youkillis @ 33%
Drew @ 32%
So in those 2 years overall, he was the most prolific run scorer on the team despite not having the greates obp (Youks, Bay, Drew, Pedroia all ranked higher). When he’s on base he has a much greater chance of scoring. Now obviously that’s how things are intended to be but it’s clear that he drives the offense and creates scoring situations, especially when the hitters behind him are making productive outs and he’s in scoring position.
The above numbers are not exactly 100% scientific but represent what I think was the best evaluation of stats I could find on baseball reference. Obviously this is not take into cosideration the hitters run producing ability or ability to drive in runners but simply the havoc each creates by being on base independent of a hit by a teammate.
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