Not all good young starting pitchers are locked up through their arbitration years – Carlos Zambrano, A.J. Burnett, Dontrelle Willis, Erik Bedard, Oliver Perez, and Joe Blanton either made it to their last arbitration year or all the way to free agency on the year-by-year path. Wandy Rodriguez, Ricky Nolasco, Francisco Liriano, Chad Billingsley, Matt Garza, Jered Weaver, and John Danks are among the current crop of standout young hurlers who have not signed multiyear deals. Yesterday Ben Nicholson-Smith analyzed the reasons why young pitchers are signed to contract extensions; today we're tackling the reasons why not.
Heath Risk And Performance Variance
Throwing a baseball 90 miles per hour repeatedly is not a natural thing, and pitchers' elbows and shoulders suffer the consequences. As Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos said when he signed Ricky Romero to an extension, "I think the risks are pretty obvious with health. You’re always concerned with respect to health." One National League executive elaborated: "Every pitcher is one pitch away from being hurt. The risk associated with pitchers, compared to position players, is much higher. That risk is not only injury but also performance. Many studies show that – except for elite pitchers – performance varies much more than it does for hitters."
Sometimes it's difficult to separate health and performance variance. Twins lefty Francisco Liriano had Tommy John surgery in November of 2006, and pitched pretty well when he returned in 2008. His ERA ballooned to 5.80 in '09, however. In 2010, more than three years removed from the surgery, he finally returned to Cy Young form. A cautious approach can pay off. Had the Mariners locked up Erik Bedard long-term before the '08 season, they'd probably owe him $12MM for 2011 and similar salaries for future seasons.
Pitchers Trying To Maximize Earnings
Carlos Zambrano, who did not sign an extension, earned $22.66MM for his three arbitration years spanning 2005-07. Brandon Webb, on the other hand, signed an extension and banked only $12.5MM for his arbitration years - about 55% of what Zambrano made. Also, Zambrano parlayed the leverage of approaching free agency at age 26 into a five-year, $91.5MM deal. From the player's point of view, going year to year can net significantly more money if you're willing to forgo multiyear security.
Matt Sosnick, agent to Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, and Dontrelle Willis, is intimately familiar with the motivations for turning down multiyear offers. "Depends what the player’s personality is like and what the agent’s ego is like. There are guys who will turn down that money, even if it’s a good deal for the player, just to be able to say they turned it down. I mean there certainly is at least one agent who is like that." Sosnick was presumably referring to super agent Scott Boras. "Boras is averse to extensions for everybody because he loves the marketplace," explained our NL exec. Makes you wonder what the precedents Jered Weaver might set going year-to-year. Of course the buck ultimately stops with the pitcher, who employs the agent.
Some players choose not to sign multiyear deals because of the ripple effect of below-market contracts signed by their peers. Within a period of a few months in early 2008, James Shields, Adam Wainwright, and Fausto Carmona signed extremely team-friendly deals involving multiple club options. It's understandable Erik Bedard wasn't in a rush to sign a similar contract coming off his best season.
Young pitcher extensions can be an issue of timing; our NL exec uses Cliff Lee's transformation to prove the point. "If Cleveland had approached Lee when he was struggling in 2007 with a 10-year extension he would have jumped at the offer. However, right now, as the top pitcher on the free agent market, Lee was right to wait and explore what he could get as a free agent." Lee actually did sign a deal covering his arbitration years. Because of a club option the Indians included in August of '06, Lee played for $9MM this year, less than half his market value. Things will work out for Lee in the end, but he would have been arbitration eligible after the '08 season and a free agent after '09.
Big Market Teams Pay Extra For Flexibility
Certain teams just don't need to fret about the cost savings and certainty long-term pitcher extensions can buy. The Yankees went year to year with Chien-Ming Wang, who won 38 games from 2006-07. They later had the flexibility to non-tender the injured Wang after the '09 season. Andy MacPhail, Orioles President of Baseball Operations, outlined the clout possessed by big market teams: "The Yankees have a philosophy of not negotiating with anybody until their free agent year. Well, they can afford to do that because essentially they can always be the highest bidder if that’s what they choose. When I was in Chicago, we generally waited until about the fourth or fifth year because A) we had money, B) we were a very attractive place for players, so we didn’t have to worry."
Late-Blooming Starters
For every Felix Hernandez or Clayton Kershaw, there's a Wandy Rodriguez or Jeremy Guthrie, pitchers who figure it out later in their careers. Rodriguez was 29 when he posted his first sub-4.00 ERA season. There was no reason to extend him before that; he wasn't established as an above-average pitcher. Following a fantastic '09 season, Rodriguez and his agent Barry Praver aggressively attempted to jump from $2.6MM to $7MM in the pitcher's second arbitration year. Wandy, who had a career ERA of 4.33 at the time, lost a hearing with the Astros and was awarded $5MM. Now the pitcher is pushing for a multiyear deal.
What's Next?
Extensions for young pitchers remain popular, with young stars Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, and Josh Johnson signing this year. On the other hand, deals given to Nick Blackburn and Scott Feldman might prompt teams to think twice about less-than-elite arms. The real test may be yet to come, if Liriano, Weaver, Billingsley, Garza, and Danks raise the arbitration bar and reach free agency in their late 20s.
Another excellent article following up on yesterday’s excellent article!
Keep it up guys – soon we’ll all have our baseball PhD!
King Felix is the best pitcher listed, extension well deserved.
followed by wainwright and johnson, though
I heard one of the White Sox number one priority is signing John Danks to an extension.
You can’t have more than one “number one” priority, so either it’s signing Danks or it’s not signings Danks.
Sure you can, you have 1A, 1B, 1C. So forth and so on.
I’d be curious to know why Matt Sosnick is constantly being quoted on these topics. The guy represents the extreme in terms of negotiating style. Based on some of the other articles on this site (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/10/sosnick-on-bruce-willingham-dunn-willis.html), he clearly feels like the best way to get a long term contract for a player is to publicly beg for it on their behalf. That doesn’t strike me as a particularly smart way to go about getting top value for your clients.
Sosnick is quoted because he’s more willing to talk to the media and smaller outlets than most agents. He is more accessible and shoots from the hip. He has direct experience with this exact topic, too.
How was Wandy Rodriguez at any point in his career a young starter with the possibility of an extension brought up? He is 31 i believe, was 26 when he was brought up (late) and pitched to 5.xx era, whip of 1.46 (was ok) in 22 games his rookie year, his sophomore season he was even worse at the age of 27 with a high 5 era and a whip of 1.6. 3rd season high 4’s, which is still very much the basis for a year to year type of player, most definitely not at any point was he an extension candidate until his age 30 season in 09, by then he was not a “young starter
“
That was pretty much my point…that Wandy is one of the better pitchers in recent times to make it to his third arb year, and it’s because he was a late bloomer and there was no reason to extend him when he was younger. I wrote:
“There was no reason to extend him before that; he wasn’t established as an above-average pitcher.”
alright, im sorry i guess i just don’t understand what relevance he has to this article as he seams to be an outlier
He is an example of a late bloomer, under the section explaining that one reason not to extend a pitcher early is that he bloomed late.
But he’s still not young at all.
exactly, he brings very little to this article as he has nothing in common with anyone else, overall though, tim did a great job.
Feldman and Blackburn were clearly mistakes. I get the rationale for locking up good young pitchers but I think the organizations overstepped by locking these two up. Feldman likely got his extension based on his win total in ’09, which is a really poor way of evaluating what you have. Blackburn’s hit total has always been high and he should have fixed that before getting an extension. Swings and misses and irrational behavior by the Twins and Rangers.
Willis was not extended because the Marlins didn’t extend players at the time, and he was extended in Detroit because Dombrowski hands out lavish extensions like no other GM in the game. His worst move among many, IMO.
I can’t be the only one that laughed out loud at “non-tendered the injured Wang”. lmao come on!
“now, as the top pitcher on the free agent market, Lee was right to wait and explore what he could get as a free agent.” ……..LOL…..hindsight is always 20/20 isn’t it?
Of course if Lee had been the slightly over a .500 pitcher or worse with a 4.50+ ERA and a WHIP of 1.42+ like he was up until 2007 AFTER 2007, he would not be the “top pitcher on the free agent market” most likely and glad to be pitching for the Indians at his current salary. I truly believe he is regarded as such because of the “over his head” aberration 2008 career year season and a couple great starts in the 2009 post season. He has been “pretty good” in the 2009 and 2010 regular season at a 1.17 WHIP and 3.18 ERA with 13 wins yearly average and a disappointing performance in the 2010 WS. I think he is rapidly on the the way down and the team that signs him to a long term multi year big money deal will be regretting it in a couple years as he will become a mediocre lefthanded #5 starter at 20M+/yr for what… 5 or 6 years? I believe Amaro thought that way also and swaped him (basically) for Halladay.
He’s only had ONE STELLAR YEAR (2 years ago) and for the money he will be looking for, he should be a 20+ win, 0.90 WHIP or lower and a 2.80 ERA or less starter for the next 3-4 years…AT LEAST….. for that kind of money. While I don’t blame him for getting what he can while he can, I hope the Yankmees break the bank for him because it will turn out to be another aging overrated and overpaid player on their long term commitments with Jeter, A-Roid, Mo and all the other senior citizens in NY by 2012. Anyone who seriously will pay him crazy dollars for his past ONE SEASON performance in Cleveland and 2 games in the 2009 WS is making a long term major error or has an Omar Minaya clone as their GM.
Lee is above average in the regular season and a force to be reckoned with in the post season. The Yankees will make the playoffs… they want Lee to shore up their post season performance. They can afford these extravagances. Imagine if they had a good GM who spent all that money wisely. The Yankees are last in baseball in wins per dollar of payroll.