Some items about a team that will likely be very busy this winter…
- The Red Sox are "undecided" about a bid for Tsuyoshi Nishioka, reports WEEI's Rob Bradford. There was some debate earlier in the week whether or not Boston is interested in the Japanese infielder, and Bradford speculates that the Sox might not bother posting a bid given how Jose Iglesias is positioned to be their shortstop of the future.
- David Ortiz is "fine" with not getting an extension from the Red Sox though he still feels his strong 2010 season was deserving of a multi-year deal, reports ESPNBoston.com's Jackie MacMullan. In thinly veiled references to his own situation, Ortiz predicts Vladimir Guerrero will re-sign with Texas for "more than one year, too" and wants Derek Jeter "to get rewarded for all he had done for [the Yankees]."
- ESPN's Keith Law was a guest on WEEI's Minor Details podcast, and WEEI.com's Alex Speier has a partial transcript of Law's Boston-related comments. Law is very complimentary of Boston's minor league system, saying that they have the variety of prospects necessary to fit the needs of about 20 other teams.
- When asked about a potential Adrian Gonzalez deal, Law says he wouldn't be willing to send a top prospect like Casey Kelly to San Diego since Gonzalez is just under contract through 2011. "Casey Kelly is not untouchable for me, but he’s pretty darn close to it," Law said. "I don’t think I’d trade Casey Kelly for one year of Adrian Gonzalez, and I love Adrian Gonzalez.”
- Law calls Felix Doubront and Jed Lowrie "very valuable secondary piece[s]" to a trade given that both players can immediately join a major league roster. Law cites the Padres and Pirates as "a great fit" for a pitcher like Doubront.
Of course Ortiz is “fine” w/ his situation. It’s not like he has a choice in it. How benevolent of him to wish Vlad and Jeter well w/ their contract requests.
Add Jorge Posada to the “I think I/you deserve a big(ger)contract” club for old men, and it could create a foursome for golf…
exactly. he is being way overpaid to begin with, he has no reason to complain
Because Jeter’s last contract of 189 mil wasn’t a reward for his performance?? These players need to spend a day in the life of an average joe.
Honestly, even in the context of MLB player salaries those 3 are still overpaid (maybe Vlad is accurately paid?). Still, I’m getting really sick of Ortiz’s veiled comments. He should be thanking someone up above that he pulled it together in 2010 to justify the club option. That was a huge GIFT on Theo and John Henry’s part.
A lot of them grow in povertie situations that most cannot understand. I know i can’t.
Then show a little more gratitude for the gifts they have received rather than whining about what they should be “rewarded” with. I respect the humble athletes, Papi is nowhere in that category.
Would you ask for a raise in work when you’re a long standing member of the company and just had a year were you did great at your job? And would you not be tell people that your friends desevre the same? I too however am getting some what tired of ortiz’s comments.
Yeah, Papi needs to cool his jets. He has been paid very well, and he knows it. He also knows that Boston -would- be willing to give him multiple years — just not at a premium yearly salary. I think he wants the best of both worlds, multiple years and a nice salary. And at his age, with his skill set, its pretty clear he won’t get it. I just want Vlad to get stuck with another 1 year deal, or maybe 2-3 years with 5m salary or so, so Papi will finally get the picture. And then maybe he and Boston can restructure the contract and keep him for a couple more years. Cause I like the guy, I just don’t want to grossly overpay for his talents.
Exactly. Think Jack Calrk the ex Sox and SFG 1st baseman and that fleet of antique cars he blew all of his money on, then he ended up having to file bankruptcy right after his career was over.. That guy made MILLIONS.. Yet blew it all.
jeter grew up in kalamazoo. its not exactly a poor town.
“Casey Kelly is not untouchable for me, but he’s pretty darn close to it,” Law said. “I don’t think I’d trade Casey Kelly for one year of Adrian Gonzalez, and I love Adrian Gonzalez.”
Is Keith Law ok?
That’s a huge statement about what he thinks of Kelly. I would trade Kelly straight up for one year of Adrian but that’s just me.
I would also make sure I resigned Adrian as well.
This is just my opinion because I realize how he worded it, but my impression was that Law was referring to Kelly being part of a package, not the whole package. I think it’s pretty universally agreed upon that it would take multiple prospects to get Adrian, so I read it as “I don’t think I’d include Casey Kelly in a deal for one year of Adrian Gonzalez…” I’m as big a Casey Kelly supporter as anyone and even I would have a hard time saying no to a 1-for-1 deal.
Again, that’s just how I interpreted it. Maybe he really did mean that.
I hope that is what he is meaning to say. That would make sense.
Yeah. I can’t imagine Law meant 1 on 1 either…then I really would think he’s out of his mind. 😛 If you get a 1 on 1 offer where you trade your best prospect for Adrian Gonzalez, nearly everyone would have to say yes, unless you’re the Royals or Rays or something.
And yeah, you’re not gonna see me offering Kelly in a package for A-Gon either. I like that kid.
“my impression was that Law was referring to Kelly being part of a package, not the whole package.”
Im sure that’s what he meant. That’s what I took away from that comment as well.
Smarter than you.
How Shakespearian of you.
Yeah I’m not sure either…although I see his point. You want to be careful trading anything for a one-year rental, in my opinion. Especially when you have a team like Boston that might not necessarily need A-Gon to make the push specifically in 2011. Not saying A-Gon isn’t good…but I mean, Boston could be good enough to win in 2011 without him, if the cards fall right. I think Law’s thinking that he’d be more willing to trade some MLB-ready talent like Lowrie or Doubront, who are valuable but might not fit in Boston, for a rental like A-Gon rather than risk the future. *shrugs* For me, if he meant a straight up Kelly for A-Gon trade, I’d jump on that without thinking about it.
“if he meant a straight up Kelly for A-Gon trade, I’d jump on that without thinking about it.”
So would any GM in Baseball.
Jeter has been overpaid his entire career, that is rewarding enough. It is time he plays for pennies so the Yankees can save money for once, as weird as that sounds.
As much as i’d think AGon would be great on the BoSox and really help solve some of their problems this offseason, I’m also just as in love with Casey Kelly and the majority of their prospects. I can see where Law is coming from.
Let’s give up Casey Kelly plus a bunch of other pieces for 1 year of Gonzalez and the right to bid with 29 other teams on his services with a $200 million dollar contract after that. One year rentals of this type are beyond stupid business.
Trading Lowrie is a really bad idea. His 2010 numbers – projected to a full season – show he has the ability to really contribute to the Red Sox for years to come.
Going against what I said in a blog yesterday, I would love to see the Pirates trade Meek or Hanrahan and a minor league player with potential (might not be needed) to the Sox for Jed Lowrie. He is a HUGE step up from Cedeno and can help our infield and lineup drastically.
Agreed he’d be a big upgrade. Which is why as a Sox fan, I hope he’s only traded as part of a something big. Then again I really like the Pirates, so if we lose him to a trade like that, I hope its to Pittsburgh 🙂
Hey, maybe Epstein will get you guys involved in some enormous, 5 team trade that gets us a Gonzalez or Upton, and gets you Lowrie! xD Now that would be fun to watch.
Meek of Hanrahan would be great on the Sox. They are both fireballers. I dont want to see either of them go but in a package deal we could afford losing one of them. Bullpen isnt anything unless you are winning games first!
PS, Epstein dont care about the Buccos. Our Bay trade was garbage. Looked great on paper, didnt do anything for us though. haha
I didn’t think much of your return from the beginning…I would be the first to admit you guys got fleeced. I guess you can be glad we only got him for the year and a half though…And now you get to watch him self-destruct in New York! haha
Agreed. I am a big fan of Meek. And this doesn’t really have much to do with anything, but I’m also a big fan of your GM. Looks like he’s got Pittsburgh on the right path; hopefully you guys are gonna be 2012’s version of this years Reds, and start competing again!
Tell Ortiz he can have two years at 6.25 million a year.
i’ll probably get killed for this but imo casey kelly is the most overrated prospect in the minors. i understand he was only 20 in AA this season, but-
Kelly 5.31era 7.67k/9 3.32bb/9 1.61whip.
Montgomery 3.47era 7.24k/9 3.92bb/9 1.37whip (20yo)
Lyles 3.12era 8.15k/9 2.48bb/9 1.32whip (19yo)
Pineda 2.22era 9.12k/9 1.99bb/9 1.09whip (21yo)
Bumgarner 1.93era 5.80k/9 2.5bb/9 1.03whip (as a 19yo in ’10)
Teheran 3.38era 8.55k/9 3.83bb/9 1.15whip (19yo)
Feliz 2.98era 9.30k/9 4.60bb/9 1.26whip (as a 20yo in ’08).
One of these guys is not like the others. One of these guys just does not belong. I realize minor league numbers are not everything but to say you wouldn’t trade him for AGON is bat$hit crazy.
Yeah, you’re about to be murdered xD I’ll just sit back and watch this time, hehe.
(I do see your point though…I disagree, but I understand what you’re thinking)
Unlike the others on the list, Kelly entered the Red Sox minor league system unsure whether he’d be a position player or a pitcher. He’s still working out a lot of his mechanics, but the scoop with Kelly is that while he doesn’t throw the 98 MPH heat like some of these other guys do, scouting reports are that he has very advanced secondary stuff for his age.Countless pitchers have put up gaudy numbers in the minor leagues living off of fastballs which just don’t translate into the big leagues. That being said, it’s obviously way too early to tell what kind of success he’ll have. There are too many scouts raving about him to call him the most overrated prospect in the minors… though to be fair, I think it would be a little nuts not to trade him 1-for-1 for Adrian (see the discussion above).
the problem is that kelly “lost” a year to playing shortstop, he had 90ip as a pro before being thrown in aa. im not saying hes not overrated =) but you have to look at both sides of the medal.
when is listend to the law interview i got the impression that he is not a fan of the “1 year star rental in exchange for top prospects” in general and he used kelly as an example, thats all.
I don’t think that you can discount the fact that Kelly was a two way player last year and this is his first full season as a pitcher. A lot of the guys you’ve cited were drafted out of highschool and concentrated soley on pitching. Though, I do see your point about him being overrated to a certain extent. It would still suck to trade him, I want to watch him pitch in the AL east because I only have basic cable.
i don’t want to hate on kelly… i think he’s a fine prospect. i think my main point is if he were the exact same player w/o signing for $3M w/ boston he wouldn’t be thought of nearly in the same light. in the case of montgomery and lyles, they were drafted within 10 picks of kelly and you don’t hear nearly as much about them. the fact that kelly played both ways is a fair point, i’d just like to see better performance. did i read he had an era north of 6.5 in the afl. small sample i know. i’d just like to see more performance from a top prospect in an organization and a top 100 prospect in baseball. and i’d trade him for agon in a blink.
I keep saying this and I’m not sure why any more the people who like Kelly don’t need convincing and the people who don’t won’t listen to what I have to say. But hell, I like pounding my head on rocks as much as several people on this site:
1a) Kelly was 20 and it was his first full year pitching professional ball. For that matter he had also only been pitching part time in high school since he prefered playing short.
1b) Kelly was clearly overmatched in AA, see reason 1a.
2) While an argument against has been made (Not by you, by others) against Kelly because he doesn’t have a blazing fastball, he does have a solid change up which people tend to forget is essential. He also has a curve that has a powerful drop to it.
So there we have it. Kelly is a young guy who dabbled in pitching in high school, now becoming a full time starter, and has stuff with great potential. Context.
kelly is a young guy who dabbled in pitching in high school, now becoming a full time starter, and has stuff with great potential. does not an elite level propect make. when performance match tools- elite level prospect. until then, overrated.
That is what happens when you just look at stats and nothing else sometimes and not the reasons for 2009-2010 differentials for his.. I am sure you have seen them here and many of us are way past tired of posting them.. But here is a little..
Kelly put on weight.. Gained 2-3mph on his FB (95 now) lost some command last year with it as it gained velocity, plus was the 2nd youngest player in the eastern league at 20YO, another thing that had something to do with it I am sure.
There are reasons if you look.. Not just all stats. he had some jewels, just like in the AFL that just ended where he pitched fine in 3 games and got hammered in the 4th start.. He is one of the youngest players pitching vs competition well ahead of him age wise.. Boston challenges it’s top players and does not baby them. Just like SS Iglesias, who was the youngest player in the entire AA Eastern league last season.
that’s kind of my point. there’s a lot of reasons why he struggled, but bottom line he struggled. never said he wasn’t a good prospect, i just don’t see the stone cold lock front of the rotation starter that it seems most sox fans do. and i don’t see him as anything close to untouchable in a trade for an impact player
He is at 95 now? That makes me happier.
Like put up in last post.. He generally picket up 2-3 MPh since the weight gain.. Touching 95 would be a better description, but he was having command issues with it at the Eastern league as well and that will probably be addressed this year.
Maybe he will get to pitch in the AFL CS game broadcast today in a relief appearance even, at least Iglesias and Lavarnway should at least. The game is on at 3PM eastern on MLB for those not aware. 🙂
I wasn’t aware of the game so thanks!
i would love to see Felix Doubront and Jed Lowrie on the padres
How much do people think it matters that getting a guy like AGon will get you two draft picks in the 2012 draft which is supposed to be even weaker then the 2010 draft was?
I don’t think you trade for him unless you can sign him to a Texiera like deal. If he won’t sign an extension you might as well wait til he becomes a free agent and just give up the 1 draft choice. That’s from someone who would REALLY like the Sox to acquire AGon. Emptying the farm for a 1 year rental wouldn’t seem to make much sense.
would you rather have had kelly dominate in A+ this season than seeing him struggle in AA? do you think he’s being promoted too aggresively? is there concern that his confidence may take a hit? kind of a general question, not just specifically kelly. would you rather have a prospect struggle at a higher lever, or dominate a level for at least a half season before getting promoted?
Theo’s argument for starting Kelly in AA was he wanted to throw Kelly into the fire to see how he would respond. In the previous season Kelly had shown he had dominated most of A ball and wanted a new challenge.
There’s an old saying about chess, the only way to get better is to play a better opponent.
Can Agon play 3B? No? Why go after him then? The Red Sox already have an all-star at 1B. His name is Kevin Youkilis. Add to this, the fact that Boston’s 3B of record, Adrian Beltre, had a better 2010 than Agon did… and Adrian will be playing 3B at Fenway Park in 2011.
Adrien Gonzalez plays in a pitchers park, if he played in Fenway he would be easily hitting .290+ with 40 Homers and 120 RBI’s+ a year.
That is pure speculation on your part.
I see what you mean, but A-Gon would definitely be an upgrade, and Youk can move to 3B. Youk and A-Gon would be a much better set of corner infielders than Youk and Beltre, and I love Beltre. I think Theo can’t sign Beltre until he feels like he’s definitely not getting Gonzalez.
That is pure speculation. There is no way to determine how Agon would regularly play in Boston (or New York). He is a laid back, a southern Californian by birth and has spent most of his career playing for sub .500 clubs (please note the Padres fade in September, when wins counted). I say the odds are 50/50 he, Agon, would be a total bust playing 81 games on the east coast. Beltre has enjoyed success in Boston. Imho, the odds are greater he will repeat his 2010 performance, if he stays.
If the Red Sox got AGon they would still have all stars at both 1b and 3b if Youk moved to 3b. Add to this that it is debatable whether Beltre had a better year than AGon as Beltre had a 6.1 WAR while AGon had a 6.3 WAR. If you think Beltre benefitted from a year in the friendly confines just think of what numbers AGon would put up there. Here’s hoping that Adrian will be playing 1b for the Sox in 2011.
Not to mention everyone knows that last year was an outstanding year for Beltre and was by no means a career year for Adrian, so to believe that going forward Beltre is going to be even almost as valuable as Adrian is a bad idea.
Last time I knew baseball was still a team sport… The individual stats you quote do not guarantee anything in the W/L column or measure anything but last year’s partially relevant performance data. Team wins on the field, chemistry & balance, are what count most.
I think the only way I trade Kelly and other top prospects for Gonzo is if Gonzo signs a contract extension. If that isn’t a possibility, then Theo should just wait until he becomes a free agent next season.
Basically, I think the Sox are going to get him one way or another. Theo has wanted this guy for what seems like forever and I don’t think he is going to let the opportunity to get Gonzo pass him by.
Time for Ortiz to get over it…I’m sick of hearing about how he wanted an extension. Vlad may get multiple years on the open market, but it probably won’t be for $12.5 million per.
What bothers me is that everyone is talking like Doubront is a stud trade chip. The guy is a glowing beacon as to why ERA is a bad statistic to judge a player. He hasn’t had a WHIP below 1.30 at any stop in the system since 2008.
Well, cause he added to his repertoire considerably in 2010, becoming more than just a fastball pitcher. And he proved he can survive in the majors, so someone can put him in their rotation right away. He still might not be great, but he has the potential to make an immediate impact, which is important for a team like Arizona.
trust me, Doubront is serious, and I do not by any means like many of the Sox prospects, Doubront is going to be good.
trust me, Doubront is serious, and I do not by any means like many of the Sox prospects, Doubront is going to be good.
Ok..so we all love Casey Kelly. But what about including him in a Juston Upton trade?
I’d say yes. Depends on what Towers wants though; so far it sounds like he’s putting more value on major-league ready talent than prospects, so we wouldn’t necessarily want to offer a blue-chip prospect like Kelly if he’s going to undervalue him.
Ok..so we all love Casey Kelly. But what about including him in a Juston Upton trade?
I’d love to see the Bucs add Felix Doubront and Jed Lowrie, but I don’t know what the Pirates have to offer the Red Sox besides Hanrahan or Meek. It’s not like the Red Sox are going to want Garrett Jones or Ryan Doumit and I don’t want the Pirates to give up a lot of prospects. I think the Rays and Pirates are better trade partners this offseason than the Red Sox.
They could be interested in Doumit if they cant resign Vmart. They always like to have a hitter capable of hitting, usually. Obviously Doumit isnt very great defensively but maybe they will see past that since the free agent catching market is thin.
Doumit, Meek, prospect (low level) for Lowrie and Doubront
– This would make sense, both sides obviously would need interest and maybe add another prospect on the pirates side or some cash.