The Orioles announced that Zach Eflin underwent UCL reconstruction (Tommy John) surgery today. He’ll miss the rest of the season and probably at least the first half of 2027.
Things had seemingly been trending in this direction. Eflin, who turns 32 today, left his season debut citing elbow discomfort. The team announced last week that he was going for a second opinion, implying the initial prognosis wasn’t good. The reexamination evidently confirmed the ligament damage that required surgical repair.
It’s another injury-wrecked season for Eflin, a mid-rotation caliber starter who has an unfortunately checkered health history. He battled chronic knee issues early in his career with Philadelphia. Eflin stayed mostly healthy between 2023-24 despite intermittent back discomfort, combining for a 3.54 ERA with a 23.1% strikeout rate over 343 innings between the Rays and Orioles.
The more significant injuries have resurfaced over the past two seasons. Eflin sustained a lat strain early in 2025. That shelved him for a month. He quickly returned to the injured list with lower back discomfort. After a brief reinstatement, he underwent season-ending lumbar surgery. Eflin made an encouraging return from that procedure and entered this season with no restrictions, but he could only complete 3 2/3 frames before his elbow gave out.
Baltimore re-signed Eflin to a one-year, $10MM free agent contract last offseason. That’ll go down as an unfortunately lost investment. Eflin, whom the O’s have already moved to the 60-day injured list, will return to the open market at season’s end. He’ll likely look for a two-year deal to cover his rehab season. That might need to be a minor league contract given his age and recent durability record.
Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz and Chris Bassitt remain Baltimore’s top four starters. They recalled lefty Cade Povich as a potential fifth starter on Sunday. He was needed in relief of Bassitt, who was shelled and only made it through two innings against the Pirates. Povich tossed 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball in relief. Brandon Young made a spot start on Monday and was optioned back to Triple-A postgame.
The O’s are off tomorrow and list Baz, Bassitt and Povich as the probable starters for their weekend series against the Giants. Rogers and Bradish, who started the final two games of this week’s series against the White Sox, would line up early next week against the Diamondbacks. It seems they’ll give Povich first look as Eflin’s replacement in the rotation. Young and Dean Kremer are on optional assignment with Triple-A Norfolk.
He’s essentially gonna miss two full seasons? Isn’t that unusual?
“Dont you think?” – Alanis
Cut It Out – Uncle Joey
Just a portion of 2027, so not two seasons.
Actually 4 seasons. Maybe 5
I bet based on his demeanor, his favourite season is Winter, but if hes anything like his songbird cousin in High School Musical, maybe its Summer
Barring any setbacks, he’s probably going to be ready around the All Star break next year. He could have a broken nail or a stubbed toe that could push his debut into September 2027.
All the cold weather games are doing these elbows no favors.
Hope you stretched before that reach. Don’t pull something.
You could have worked in a joke about the the cold and reaching…
Points!
Don’t worry doc, I drank my pre-workout.
But did he use the ringworm cream? If not that explains a lot
The cold never bothered me anyway.
This is validating my earlier point about reducing the need for max velo and max spin on every pitch. A real pitcher is a true craftsman, and has the mental fortitude to recognize when a pitch should be delivered with extra oomph. The human body can only produce so much oomph, and then it begins to break down. That’s what we’re seeing already early this season with the voluminous plethora of arm injuries to starting pitchers. Gotta respect the oomph.
@foppert4
“Gotta respect the oomph.”
That’s what she said. 😉😉
100%. O’s are destroying their pitchers.
deGromm is pitching for Baltimore now?
Good luck telling young pitchers that as they won’t have MLB careers because MLB hitters will be ready for their meatballs with their barrels, exit velos, and launch angles.
What’s causing more problems is travel leagues where kids are playing baseball 52 weeks a year for 12 years BEFORE they get a minor league contract. Too much wear on these arms before they’re even fully developed. My Dad coached me in Little League in the 1970’s. He barred any of our pitchers from throwing curves. We only won 1 championship over a few years but we had fun and the kids arms stayed healthy. That’s impossible today.
Tell that to Nolan Ryan
Nolan Ryan is an anomaly. I can’t think of a better word to use–the guy is the chuck norris of pitching. I wonder what he could throw right now? Probably in the upper 80s!
Nolan Ryan is why you hate modern pitching.
And yet teams will still all find 5 guys to take their turn in the rotation. Look at all the people crying about the Braves rotation before the season and now they’re leading in ERA. Pitchers have been getting injured at a high rate throughout baseball history. It’s going to happen regardless of velocity and spin rates.
As long as these pitchers keep throwing the same way and doing the same things I guess the never-ending surgeries are gonna happen and everyone is good with it. Max velo! Spin rate! Just keep doing the same things no big deal.
Or throw slower pitches with less spin and watch them get blasted out of the park with regularity.
Or they can learn to pitch. You understand?
Tough blow for Eflin and the Orioles playoff hopes. They cheaped out on starters, unfortunately for fans. We’ll see if they pivot to the best FA still available in Giolito or stay cheap and promote a young pitcher who probably won’t be ready. They made some good moves in the offseason, although unfortunately didn’t try very hard to improve their rotation with higher-end talent
But at least they saved their prospects.
Kremer is better than giolito and under contract. Eflin was depth not expected back till June initially and insurance if bradish or wells couldn’t make the rotation all year. Someone else goes down povich , young or wells stretched out move into the 5th slot… not worried.
Who is worth picking up in fantasy? Kremer?
For the millionth time, free agents don’t have to sign with any particular team. They were in on both Suarez and Valdez. They also offered Burnes more money than Arizona. To say they didn’t go after higher-end talent is flat out false.
For the millionth time, they didn’t get any of them. Trying doesn’t matter, or if you want to make it matter, they don’t try hard enough. Its a failure from all angles.
Some people just can’t face the truth of the matter. This is the MO of this team for decades. They don’t pay for front line pitching. They always try to get a bargain. They pretty much knew that Burnes wasn’t coming back to pitch for Baltimore, he wanted to go close to home. So it is a great PR stunt to say, “Well, hey, we offered him about $5 million more over the life of the contract for less years than he wanted, but technically our offer was better,” after the fact. He wanted to go home. I am not sure there was a price point he would have accepted to stay in Baltimore. The thing is, they knew this ahead of time and should have been working to get somebody else in house to replace him.
They were in on a World Series banner
I think the bigger problem is Elias’ approach to the draft. The Orioles drafted Nolan McLean but then let him slip away trying to nickel and dime when they didn’t like his medicals. The Orioles were fortunate to miss out on Burnes and Suarez. Burnes MIGHT pitch again this year and Suarez has looked terrible with the Red Sox so far. Valdez was the one they needed but even he has looked mediocre so far too. Still would have liked Valdez since I think he’ll turn it around.
Thank you, true that.
thx @deron867
it’s more fun for some to keep recycling the same tired narrative of “they cheaped out”.
while I agree in a perfect world,.they would have traded for Ohtani. it def takes 2 to tango and you can’t just blame the Baltimore FO for not getting it done.
They cheaped out. Like they do ALL the time. It isn’t a “tired narrative,” it is the fact of the matter.
Isn’t it funny when top of the line starters sign elsewhere, about a month or so after you hear, “Well, the Orioles were in on pitcher X,” and they either post the offer made which is usually less than that they got elsewhere, or they don’t bother to list the offer.
So if the orange one is Taco, are you saying the Orioles are Oaco?
Burnes was not going to stay in Baltimore at almost any price, but certainly not for the paltry amount they reported to offer him after he signed in Arizona. It was just another, “hey, we tried,” BS move. They KNEW he wasn’t coming back, so why try with a BS offer to him, instead of taking that money and…I dunno….getting somebody else?
Paltry? 40 m a year is cheaping out?
Ed
I am among the many convinced the Burnes offer was a “show face” tactic for Elias. It was well known that he was not going to accept so why not throw something out there that looks great to most people knowing there’s no chance he’ll take it?
Pivoting to Sugano and Morton (and then Gibson in desperation) was not acceptable. Bassitt looks like Morton too, especially the 30 foot spike throw to home, Morton did that last year.
We all know Kremer is coming up soon and we know what to expect, back end level innings eater. Which is fine if you have the front end guys that the Orioles don’t (and no, Rogers isn’t going to pitch to a sub 2 ERA again).
Which starting pitcher is getting $40/yr. for the Orioles?
It is the rebuttal to the fans that come at them for not following through with what they keep saying.
“Well, actually, we offered a contract to so and so, but…he chose to go somewhere else for more money.” Or you have the case with Burnes who wasn’t going to remain in Baltimore anyway. “Well, we offered him a contract, but he did what he said he was going to do and went to Arizona.” Yeah…and then what did you do with the money you were going to offer a staff ace? You went and overpaid a bunch of bums.
I still want to know the reasoning behind bringing Mountcastle back for $8 million to play 1B/DH AFTER you signed Basallo to a long term, big contract to play 1B/DH/C, and AFTER you signed Alonso to play 1B/DH, and you already have Ward and O’Neill who also corner OF/DH, and you have Coby Mayo who is 3B/1B/DH?
Mayo is going to get a long look for now until Westburg comes back, and unfortunately he’s off to a pretty cold start with the bat, which is what his ticket to MLB is. His defense has looked pretty good at 3B so far, but there’s a reason why he moved to 1B. Once Westburg is back (if he can come back and doesn’t need surgery) somebody has to go, and Mayo still has an option year left. If he’s struggling, he goes to the minors. If he finally catches fire, maybe he’s a trade chip at that point.
Mounty has barely played. So again, why did they bring him back?
Oh, they tried alright, as hard as anyone.
If Giolito were worth anything he would be signed by now. It’s too late to expect him to step in and contribute, at least contribute positively and meaningfully. Give the young guys a chance or trade for Joe Ryan
Povich is a better option than Giolito.
I hope so but currently, the numbers are more supportive of Giolito ‘s body of work. but Cade is a young guy on his way up.
Eflin’s agent: “He sucked in June, stopped pitching in July, but give us $10M. He’s fine……trust me.”
I think Elias is just trying to prove how clever he is. “See, look at how this guy turned out and I paid below starting pitching market price for him….”
To his credit, he has found some gems in utility players and some position players. I mean Ryan O’Hearn came out of nowhere, and Ramon Laureano also blew up. But aside from some relievers, and the crazy emergence of Rogers, he’s been terrible with pitchers.
Great move Elias! You only paid $909,090 per out recorded for Eflin plus what you’re paying Bassitt. We’re all so glad you didn’t spend the $28.5M on Suarez or Valdez instead.
I am actually happy he didn’t spend on Suarez. 5 years at that price is brutal. A potential Jordan Zimmermann clunker.
Suarez is overrated and barely above average. They were smart not to outbid Boston.
This sucks for Zack, he built himself into a very good pitcher.
I imagine he re-signs with O’s for ’27, or half a season of ’27 anyway.
That would be so Elias lol
His contract with the O’s contains a mutual option for 2027, something the writer apparently didn’t know.
Really feel for the guy as he can be an effective starter when healthy. I don’t know what he decides to do at this point but I wish him the best. My O’s have some younger still very unproven depth like Povich and Young, and also Kremer who will undoubtedly return here soon. But man, what do you do with so many injuries? Pitcher or position player wise. You have guys like Suarez and Wells who have proven capable starters but also have injuries in there history. Damn tough time with all of the injuries going around.
He’ll be out probably until the all star break of ‘27. At that point he’ll be 33, will have pitched only sporadically in almost two years, and wasn’t particularly good the last time he did pitch. The best he’ll do might be a minor league deal in the spring of ‘28.
Was injured last year, quite badly. Don’t just check out his stats, actually look at footage of how he pitched in the second half of ’24 when O’s acquired him. Looked outstanding.
1 yr contract….he will have to look for show me contract when he returns
……………really. Really? Really? Really. Really!
This guy was injured for a long time last season, he was trying to protect his back meaning he was overcompensating with his arm, then he’s ramping himself up so fast after his back procedure to get ready for this season and…boom goes the dynamite. Who didn’t see this coming?
Once again the Orioles come out of the off season gates proclaiming that, honest and truly, this time we really mean it, super pinky swear, honest to giggity good golly gosh, we’re going to get a front line starter, maybe two because we really think our time to compete is now.
The Orioles sign Pete Alonso to a huge contract. Okay, great. The O’s needed a bona fide power bat that can stay in the lineup for most of the season. Then they bring back Mountcastle for what was it, $8 mil? This is after they signed Basallo to a huge contract and his position is also 1b/DH when he’s not being a spot starting catcher. Then they trade Grayson for Ward, which okay, Grayson has been a baby bird with a broken win for years now, and Ward is yet again another power bat corner OF/DH type.
They trade for a 3rd/4th starter in Shane Baz. They sign a 4th/5th starter in Bassitt. They bring back Elfin who is a 5th/6th starter.
The season starts. “Hey, why is our starting pitching so bad? Why aren’t they getting through innings? Why are we once again killing our bullpen? Why are we near leading the league in walks? Why are we only in the middle of the pack with strikeouts?”
Every….time….with this team. They are a team that is allergic to pitching and taking walks.
Shane Baz season is upon us. He winds up with a 3.3 ERA and tosses 175 innings. Book it now!
Even if he does have as good of a season as you are predicting, it won’t matter when the rest of the staff stinks and our BP is all on the IL by mid-season due to overwork.
We need another one at the front of the rotation for sure. Baz looks very good to me though. He’s pumping 97 easy with good secondaries. I expected much more from Bradish but it’s still early. Rogers continues to shine.
Bassitt I did not like signing. He won’t be the worst pitcher in baseball all year but with Eflin’s injury that is a real problem. Kremer should be a safe back end starter when he’s back up. Not too concerned about him. What you see is what you get. Hopefully without the garbage April like usual.
Another injury would kill us though. Trey Gibson isn’t ready. I won’t believe Brandon Young can be a good starter until he does it.
We know somebody else is going down with an injury on the pitching staff. It is pretty much inevitable at this point.
Trevor Rogers stinks??? Statistically he’s been better than anyone since May 24 of last season!
Context. Why do so few people on this site not understand this simple concept?
As far as the starting pitching goes, Rogers god bless him is still looking like the ace no one actually believed he was.
Bradish imo, just needs to get back into the swing of things. Small step forward today, the talent and stuff is still there.
But as we see we Eflin, its fair to doubt the health and ability to be available. As far as Baz goes, everyone sees the talent and ability. You hope he takes advantage of the opportunity to prove the O’s right in their acquiring him.
Bassitt’s best days are behind him for sure, but if he replicates some of what he’s done the past few years (a tall task for a guy in the absolute twilight years of his career) he can provide decent back end of rotation production once he settles in.
That last spot should be Kremer, he may not be the most spectacular but he is always available and pretty sufficient for his spot in the rotation.
We’r what? Twelve games into the season? Its not over yet but as you noted there are concerns even beyond the rotation. A lot of the hitters are off to a slow start as are a good portion of the bullpen guys. Couple all that together with being without younger talented guys like Westy and Holliday as well as a rookie manager coaching. Its a tough spot to be in when you have injuries, but I can’t say its impossible to overcome since its so early.
I think the group of arms we have in the pen right now are absolutely exceeding expectations by a wide margin.
Rico Garcia just earned the save today while Grant Wolfram pitched the 7th & rookie Anthony Nunez got the 8th.
Baltimore — Elias has done well with bullpen arms who have had limited/no experience before. I think the pen will be fine, even if we don’t know who they are.
And if they aren’t up to snuff, Elias has also shown a short leash for these guys, and will move on quickly.
Rico, Grant, (Detrick), and Nunez are just the newest wave. If they’re Cano, Bautista, and Baker we’ll soon find out. But there is a good track record here.
I think we definitely need another high leverage arm at the deadline for the pen. I’m not sold on the late inning mix yet. Wolfram has been an effective lefty and I like the way he’s been attacking hitters. Nunez obviously looks like a find.
Rico scares me but he’s gotten the job done. Wells has been walking too many guys. Kittredge will be a nice boost but without having an elite rotation—-think we need more for the postseason.
I think there is a reason Bassitt went to Feb. 11th unsigned and we’re seeing it now.
Rogers is going to regress to the mean and I certainly don’t think its fair to hold him to last year’s level. Anytime he continues to exceed a mid rotation level starter I see it as a bonus.
The problem with Bradish (and Rodriguez before him) is too many fans look at the absolute best he performed, which is way in the rearview mirror – the last 2/3 of the 2023 season – and expect him to be at that level. That level is probably gone. Not every pitcher is Palmer who could put up Cy Young contending seasons for a decade, nor is every hitter Eddie Murray who was good for 150 OPS+ nearly every year for over a decade. Even Ripken rarely got back to 1983-85 form (1991 and a partial 1999).
Elias presents otherwise but continues to cheap out on pitching hoping for miracles. Sugano had he carried his April level all year (which I knew he wouldn’t) would have been a bargain at 13M. Eflin had he bounced back to mid rotation would have been a bargain at 10M. He will not pay the top dollar that comes with proven results afraid that guy will get hurt, but will but 2 or 3 guys who have little chance of achieving that level and spend the same or more.
When the vaunted rotation depth is already forced to call up Povich and Young 10 games into the season, its not good. I’m also afraid of the bullpen getting fried like last year, you can’t have all the guys on pace for 70 or 80 appearances.
Also agree the hitting is way below expectations and seems to have learned nothing from last year. Still struggling with RISP, against lefties, still far too many K’s and not enough BBs. Exceptions: Ward for sure, Gunnar in part, Adley looks better. Cowser and Mayo are not performing at a MLB-starter level.
Cowser is trash. We need a CF if Tavares doesn’t shock the world. You’ve always been too low on Bradish though. Give him a few more turns before deciding on him.
Team has holes and I fully expect a lot of deadline action. I’m hopefully we’re there in the WC/DIV mix and get there at the deadline.
He can take some comfort from having made 53 million so far
Maybe he should’ve gotten a third opinion
So sorry to hear this news for such a nice guy. I’m afraid this sounds like this might be a career ending injury. Good luck in your recovery.
The surgery some guys get up to 3 times in their career is career ending for Eflin?
Most guys who have ‘3 surgeries’ of this type start having them when they are in high school or college. He will be 34 by the time he recovers from the surgery and is ready to pitch. This is his first Tommy John and he may not be able to overcome this. He has had at least 2 knee and one back surgery. After a while, the injuries tend to pile up and he might decide to call it a day and stay home with his 4 young children and lovely wife. Although I do wish him well, this might be it for him.
At 34 and 3 years removed from being effective by mid 2027, the odds will be very long the form comes back all the way.
Sucks for Eflin. He was great when healthy.
Meanwhile, If I’m Dean Kremer I can’t wait to sign somewhere where I’ll be appreciated.
Dean Kremer is fine with his treatment. He’ll be back. He’s not being mistreated and fits well with the Os.
Unless you’re Kremer himself there’s no way you could know that lol
Dean should have never been left off the roster out of spring training. We kept Hiraldo instead. He could have easily been the long man out of the pen, something we didn’t have, until someone was hurt(Eflin) or until they went to the supposed six-man rotation!
I mean, Dean Kremer has seen his ERA go up over the seasons, and last year posted a 4.19 ERA.
He and Eflin are about the same pitcher. Kremer, Orioles fans love, and Eflin, Orioles fans point to as an example of bad pitcher signings.
How odd. Pretty similar pitchers, wildly different perceptions. Huh.
O’s – Eflin cost $10 million this year and was hurt when they signed him. They basically bought a discount dented dryer at Sears hoping no one had dropped it off the truck. He also cost $18M last year and was ineffective and hurt.
Kremer cost less than $5M in the previous 3 seasons combined and only $5.7M this year. He’s also averaged 170 IP per year.
Thornton — re: Salaries. To me, a 4.20 ERA for $1.00 or $1,000,000 pitcher is still a 4.20 ERA. How much they are paid to produce that result is secondary, as I see it.
As far as injuries go, it’s always going to be a non-zero risk. You can take good/educated guess based on the data available, but…Predictive Medicals is not a thing.
I mean, Baz and Rogers were both injured for years before they were acquired. What’s the finical services tag-line; future performance is not indicative of previous performance.
My general point is that Dean has not advanced as a pitcher, if anything, he’s been slowly sliding back.
CurtBlefary – with the off days the first 2 weeks of the season the Orioles opted for the extra bullpen arm thinking that they wouldn’t need 5 starters and not expecting Eflin to turn into dust and most others to be ineffective. Eflin went down and Kremer still started in AAA that night, that was dumb, and why we saw Povich instead.
Kremer will be up within the next week or so.
Thornton Mellon – Eflin was hurt on a Tuesday. The 5th game of the season. Kremer made his first appearance at Norfolk the following Friday. He wasn’t eligible to pitch until today, April 9th, unless he was replacing someone who was injured. The O’s had two opportunities to do that, first when Eflin went down and then Hiraldo.
Also, the hitting has been atrocious, but it’s not fair to say we haven’t hit left-handers, simply because we haven’t faced a left-handed starter yet!
Orioles need to learn how to draft and develop pitching talent instead of relying on one-year free agent deals.
Mike Ellias, the “executive of the year” strikes again
poor Led Zeflin :(((((((((((