The Red Sox locked up a longtime catcher today and seem to be serious suitors for Jayson Werth. Here are the rest of the day's Red Sox rumors:
- The team will almost certainly tender Jonathan Papelbon a contract, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. The closer is likely to earn close to $11MM in 2011, but the Red Sox decided against putting him on the open market a year early.
- Adrian Beltre told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that his preference is to re-sign with the Red Sox. He's going to explore his options carefully, but could decide to accept an offer soon. The third baseman says "the number of years" on his next contract matters a great deal to him.
- The Giants, who officially announced their deal with Miguel Tejada tonight, are no longer targeting Marco Scutaro, accoding to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe (on Twitter).
I seriously think, and I’m willing to bet a ton of money, that by 9:00 ET P.M. tomorow night, Beltre will be an A.
I’ve already seen elsewhere that the A’s are close to signing him so you aren’t gonna see me taking that bet.
I agree, 5/64 will be hard for him to pass up, and I don’t think the Sox will offer him that much.
Looks like the market for Scutaro is really starting to shrink
Sounds good to me.
Ellsbury
Pedroia
Crawford
Youkilis
Ortiz
Lowrie
Drew
Saltalamacchia
Scutaro
This could be next years lineup, if Beltre leaves and we really push for Crawford. Boston may not be too excited to move Scutaro yet, because they realize Lowrie may end up playing a lot of 3B. Now, if Beltre returns, or if we pull off the big trade for a 1B everyone keeps talking about, its a different story. But for now, I’m okay with Scutaro having a small market. He can still bring value to the team.
That line up scares me. We’d be in a world of hurt against LHP.
L
R
L
R
L
S
L
S
R
Four lefties…yeah that’s rough. But you know what, I’d rather have a lefthanded-heavy team than have to sign Werth over Crawford.
Sox could sign both Crawford and Beltre for a few million more total than someone like Adrian Gonzalez will want on his free agent deal. Plus they get to keep their prospects… this is what i hope the sox do..
I know that everyone is freaking out saying that Carl Crawford wants 7 or 8 years and Beltre wants 5 years 90 million. There’s no way either of those things come close to happening.
I think they could get them both signed for a combined total investment of under 160 million easy.
Beltre 4 years 62 million
Crawford 6 years 95 million
GET IT DONE THEO..
Ellsbury CF
Pedroia 2B
Crawford LF
Youkilis 1B
Ortiz DH
Beltre 3B
Drew RF
Salty/Backup C
Scutaro SS
all told you get to switch your own first round pick for the number 18 pick you get a sandwich pick as well for VMART.
Everyone’s gonna kill me for saying that Crawford won’t break 100 million, but i just don’t see it happening. anything more than 6 years is insane for the guy as his speed is a very large part of his game.
When healthy the top three guys on this team could steal 150 bags easily and the next three could hit a combined 100 bombs and 350 RBIs. Everyone but Salty can have an OBP over .350 and will work the count very well…
tweak the pen a tad, hope for better luck with injuries (which is beyond anyone’s control) and pray for a rebound from Beckett and Lackey and you’ve done what you can do. It’s scary on paper
Do you have a plan B?
Crawford’s going to the Angels
I don’t think that’s a sure thing.
Texiera was going to be with the Sox if you listened to all the professionals
AGON would have already been traded to the Sox as well according to Rosenthal, Gammons, Kurkjian, Olney etc etc
I was stating what i think should happen not what will happen, and there are plenty of other options and tons of different scenarios. If you give me the other 29 teams to sign Crawford and you get the Angels i would take that bet and feel pretty good about it.
There is literally no chance Crawford receives less than 7 years and less than 16m a season. No chance.
150 stolen bases easily? I don’t know about easily. It would be a nice top 3.
Substitute Werth for Crawford and you have something a lot more likely to happen.
That may be, i was stating that i would rather have Crawford than Werth.
I think Werth is a good player but not a game changer like Crawford. All in all if it takes another year and 3 million more per to get Crawford you have to get it done.
“6 years is insane for the guy as his speed is a very large part of his game.” I feel that people seem to ignore that when they shouldn’t. Most of value depends on his speed and that’s usually the first tool to go especially when you spend your whole career playing on artificial turf. I dont see why he would get more than holliday.
I’ve never understood this either. Speed is the majority of his game and that’s going to go first…
The team who signs him needs to think about years 5,6, and/or 7…
Why don’t you tell that to Ricky Henderson who stole 66 at age 39 and 42 at age 42!!!!!
*cough* steroids *cough*
Too bad the Yankees don’t have many base stealers in their line-up
Are people really stuck on this? I think the Yankees have worse issues throwing out guys than the Red Sox do.
Yankees were 12th last year. That’s really not too bad.
Agreed…but the Yankees full time catcher for 2011 wasn’t on the team, so I’m not sure what 2010 has to do with 2011? All I’m saying is that of all the questions with Saltalamacchia, catching base stealers is literally the last one. The guy has a very good arm and one of the best pop times in baseball.
Gardner, Grandy and Jeter.
Doesn’t really mean much but in 2010.
Arod was 2/2 in SB vs Boston
Jeter was 3/3…..
Gardner was 9/10
Granderson was 2/2
I wouldn’t call that a testament to the Yankees’ base stealing prowess as opposed to a testament to the Sox’s complete inability to keep people from stealing last year. Vlad Guerrero was 2/4 in SB against us last year, literally half of his total for the year, both of them in one game.
Peter Abraham talked to Beltre…im surprised that tub of lard didnt try eat him
???? What?
heres an article that explains what whas wrong with salty
link to sports.espn.go.com
Beltre better get a lot of years if he goes to Oakland.. his numbers are going to plummet there.. See Matt Holliday..
As a diehard Sox fan I wont be heartbroken if the Sox dont overpay for a contract season from Beltre
You won’t be saying that when they sign Pena or Lee and switch Youk to first. Red Sox fans vastly underrate Beltre, just like they overrate every single power hitter.
not sure how hes undrerrated.. hes had 2 good years in his career. Ironically enough both were contract years.. Hes got 270 15 hrs 70 rbis written all over him next year IMO
Ironically enough his worst year also came in a contract year. But apparently 2 out of 3 is a trend.
true enough.. but Seattle is a terrible park for hitters… just like Oakland..
obviously I will hope for a repeat season if he re-signs, but I will be very surprised..
factor in he’s likely to cost at least 15 mil/year and I think it would be a poor signing
Oh this argument again, its just sooooo intelligent…How do you figure he’ll hit that when his career average is .275/.328/.462 with 25 homers and 90rbi? Besides his one injured season, which was a contract year, Beltre has hit 19+ homers 8 years in a row. The guy was a 25 home run hitter in Seattle. Why don’t Red Sox fans appreciate this guy? I swear the media brainwashes sox fans.
2004 greatly enhanced his career numbers, theres no arguing that.. the guy ha broken 90 rbis 3 times in his career.. 2 of those coming on contract seasons.. 90 rbis is not much for a “slugging CI”
What? First of all, are we really arguing RBI’s like they matter? If you combine his best season (2004) and his worst season (2009) they cancel each other out and add up to his career norms. The guy is a very, very good player. Your prediction could very well happen, but it’s based on no actual facts…I can say Youkilis will be terrible next year, but it wouldn’t be based on anything.
“I swear the media brainwashes sox fans.”Somebody here finally hit it on the head and posted it.This is what people here get and deserve when they read and take to heart more than 75% of the pure rubbish written by Mazz and especially so, Shaughnessy at the Globe. if Sox FO took their advice, Boston would have a 300M payroll and filled out with rubbish like jeter and every other 35YO+ useless player in the game.
Correct on Shaughnessy, what a trash buckett.
He’s most certainly correct on Mazz. Sometimes I think he’s actually worse than Shank, at least Shank was considered relevant once. Either way, they’re both muck raking idiots that the baseball world would be better off without having to deal with.
“..but Seattle is a terrible park for hitters…”
That’s also why he only had big seasons in LA and Boston. Two hitters parks. What makes you think he won’t continue hitting in the HITTERS park if he resigns with Boston? You’re a goof.
check his road vs home splits to see his true worth while in seattle he’s not as bad as some people think, then agian he’s not as good as he was last year either.
Beltre wants to stay in Boston…. and will… because he and his family made their decision to move East months ago….
Which completely contradicts every report out there that Oakland has made a serious and large offer and that Beltre’s wife and family prefer the West Coast.
We’ll see, but the way things seem to be unfolding, I am guessing that Beltre and Berkman sign in Oakland and the Angels sign Crawford. I wouldn’t discount the A’s. The weren’t half bad last season, they have a lot of talent and things seem to be moving in the right direction. They add those two players and you’ve got yourself a very competitive team.
Berkman is over the hill….. .248 last year….
Berkman was recovering from an injury last year. He was an absolute Beast in the playoffs.
Maybe….
I’m starting to think that Boston may be signing either Beltre or Crawford, but not both. And if they get Beltre, then they’re going for Werth. And if they get Crawford, they’re waiting til next year to try and sign Adrian Gonzalez, although a trade could happen as well. I get the feeling that while Epstein -is- going to spend this year, he’s not going to go free-agent crazy. Besides, there are too many other suitors for the bigger free agents this year for him to pull off too much excessive spending. Obviously, I think Epstein feels that Crawford is a better player than Werth. And he also would like to keep Beltre in Boston if he can, albeit on his terms. I think those two guys will be the catalysts; if Beltre signs with the A’s soon, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Boston really ratchet up their wooing of Crawford.
Theo will outbid the Angels for Crawford because it’s either Crawford or Werth for our 3rd OF. We won’t risk taking on a contract that would be similar to Drew, and that’s exactly what Werth would do. He’s an overrated player, even Phil’s fans agree with that. He strikes out entirely too much, and that’s something that the Sox will not tolerate.
Look at the Red Sox healthy 2010 line up
Ellsbury – 74 K’s in 624 AB’s (09, last healthy season)
Pedroia – 45 K’s in 626 AB’s (09, last healthy season, 38 K’s in 302 AB’s last year)
V-Mart – 52 K’s in 493 AB’s
Youk – 125 K’s in 491 AB’s (09, last healthy season, 67 K’s in 362 AB’s last year)
Ortiz – 145 K’s in 518 AB’s (Red Sox are tired of how much he K’s, reluctant to pay him 12.5MM)
Beltre – 82 k’s in 589 AB’s
Drew – 105 K’s in 478 AB’s
Cam – 156 K’s in 544 AB’s (2009 season, last healthy season, 7.5mm AAV contract)
Scutaro – 71 K’s in 632 AB’s
Basically, the Sox are not going to give someone an extended contract worth 20mm if they strike out as much as Werth does. He K’d 147 times in 554 AB’s last year, 156 times in 571 AB’s in 2009, and 119 in just 418 AB’s in 2008. If we were going to be able to get Werth for 12-13mm/year, I think Theo would consider it, but he won’t take that line for $16-18mm that he’s looking for.
For the record, Crawford struck out 105 times in 600 AB’s in 2010, 95 times in 606 in 2009, and 60 times in 443 AB’s in 2008.
Strikeouts don’t mean too much to theo as oppose to OBP and Slugging%. Plus Werth also sees more pitches per plate appearance, another thing Theo values. Werth may strike out a lot but he takes pitchers deep in counts. Crawford saw 3.75 pitches per plate appearance in ’10 compared to Werth’s 4.37.
Is it possible for the Red sox to get Werth and Crawford and let Beltre walk and then trade Ellsbury and a few prospects or even include J.D. Drew bc I know the Padres were looking for an outfield bat (they tried to get Cody Ross) and get AGon in return and move youk to 3rd? So Crawford in LF Cameron/McDonald/young prospect in CF and Werth in RF? Or if we trade just young guys and they aren’t interested in Drew, Drew in RF Werth in LF and Crawford in CF w Youk at 3rd and Agon at 1st? I know the payroll would be huge, but maybe we could just afford it this yr and then let Drew and Matsuzaka walk which could potentially then give us enough to sign a 5th pitcher and have enough for that allstar offensive roster. I don’t know maybe I’m too much of a dreamer.
Ortiz, Drew, Cameron and Beltre would cost about $50-52M as a collective group.Gonzalez, Werth and Crawford would cost about $52-55.Sox would take a hard hit this year…but the team would be fantastic, hitting wise. There are still only two MLB ready pitchers in the bullpen. Sox realistically need 3 arms. I’d have no problem if the Sox nontendered Papelbon because they could have signed both Soriano and Rauch/Wheeler in the $11M range.
A pull happy hitter like Werth could do damage in Fenway.
Couldn’t be any worse than the catching corps in ’10…What like the worst % of baserunners thrown out?
Well I’m just going to use a crude example of the value of a stolen base. Based on linear weights for stolen bases each SB is worth about .20 runs. This, in theory, means you need 5 steals to make up the value of a single run. A caught stealing though is detrimental to a team’s chances of scoring runs. The linear weight of a caught stealing is -.486. This means it only takes 2 CS to make up for the 5 SB you allow. The total runs created for base runners off V-Mart (Who was considered terrible at throwing out runners by fans) was 19.8 runs. If you subtract the value of CS you have a season total of 6.678 runs created on the entire season. Not enough value to really matter over the course of the 110 games he caught to really matter. So really a catcher who can throw out baserunners isn’t as important over the course of a baseball season as people make it out to be.
I don’t understand why a Yankee fan would be worrying about the Red Sox defensive abilites at catcher when his team has Montero and Posada. I’d be concentrating on Montero and worrying a little less about Saltalamacchia.
Yes if math is all that counted. You also have to take into effect the moral blow it can have to a team. It can charge up a hitter, or throw a pitcher off his game. That is like saying a hit batter only puts a runner on first; no, it charges up a team and can often create a rally.
Go ahead and Tell Dave Roberts that steals can’t be game-changing. Or franchise-changing, for that matter.
I wish Dave Roberts had known that in ’04. I’m sure he would have stayed at 1st base and waited for a homerun.
One name for ya. Dave Roberts. Everyone knew what he was going to do and if the Yanks had a C that threw better than Posada then maybe that game would’ve ended differently. The ability to create runs is immeasurable and the effect it has on the defense and the pitcher can’t be summed up on paper.
does the math account for the amount of runs produced from the threat of stealing?
As a baseball player a stolen base isn’t a big morale killer. If you want you could even use it as a positive because now that fast runner isn’t on first to “distract” the pitcher. It’s all relative. Meanwhile the math has been tested based on the chances of runs being scored in different situations. What it proves is that most of the time the risk of a CS far outweighs the benefits and if they just let the hitter swing and keep the runner on the base the team will normally come out better. Just look at the Billy Beane A’s of the early 2000’s. They had almost no steals every year but still were one of the top teams when it came to scoring.
But what if he got caught? ’04 season wouldn’t have been the Red Sox’s first championship in 86 years.
Edit: And you seem to have missed my point. Obviously not every situation has the same values. A single with the bases load is going to have a much higher run value than a single with the bases empty but over the course of the 164 game, 1476 inning season you have a large enough sample to factor how much each event was worth on average. If you want to argue with the experts and instead say “Well look at dave robert’s steal, steals are mad important” you have to figure how many times you are in game 4 with the best closer in history on the mound down 3 games – 0 and you will end up coming back to win game 4 and the series.
Didn’t see this before.
That’s kinda like saying Putting Kurk Gibson out there with his hurt legs was a genius managerial decision. Sure the result was good but the risk far outweighed the reward. You just happened to win the lottery that one time and everything worked. But should you bet on it?
Seeing as the discussion is whether the Red Sox need a catcher for the entire 2011 season the use of a 1 inning sample over a method used to determine value in a 164 game sample would be ridiculous. Might as well also trade for the first hitter to go 1 for 1 with 1 HR the first day of the season, he’s bound to keep up that pace
If my aunt had balls she’d be my uncle. We don’t live in the world of “what if”. Despite what the numbers suggest, steals can be game-changing, and its amplified most in big situations.
The numbers simply don’t tell the entire story. You might argue that the difference between a mediocre pen and an excellent pen won’t make a big difference in regular season wins, but its all the difference in the world in the playoffs.
If the value of a ballplayer lies in his ability to “not make an out” reflective in OBP then a high SB rate is also extremely valuable in that he advanced from one base to another w/o the benefit of a hit or the sacrifice of an out via SF or bunt.
Kirk Gibson was a fluke. Can’t compare that to a SB.
Bad example. Kirk Gibson wasn’t sent up to steal first. He was sent up to hit a homer, which didn’t need a genius to figure out. His legs were not the most important componant in that equation
Your post is nothing more than MoneyBall philosophy, which only works when you have dominant pitching as did the A’s team in your posting. You dismiss basestealing and prevention and the effects that each one has on the course of the game as something trivial. That may have been true in the steroid era but that is going to quickly change as the game reverts to more run producing via the basepaths as compared to the power game of the recent past.One last thing is that stats never show how the game can shift and change on the basis of a stolen base or a thrown out runner in a crucial inning of a ballgame,
This one time….at band camp…
Actually if you look at the numbers the playoffs are mostly a crapshoot. It depends on which team is the hottest at the time. But then again we can’t say what if a team with an excellent pen had a mediocre pen to figure out how much of a difference it would have made because we apparently don’t live in a what if world.
Can I be honest? You are a economy sized squeeze bag of Summers Eve. You are acting as if Brian Cashman just commented to Theo Epstein about a signing. Can we ever find a place where “fan A” can comment about another teams signing w/o having to defend something their GM did?
“The Sox are going to have a really hard time throwing out base runners in 2011”
Fact: Vtek thru out 25 of 167 base stealers in 2009 and 2010. Salty thru out 20 of 87.
Why can’t anyone, including a Yankee fan point that out? We know what are issues are and I don’t think he ever said our C squad was better than yours.
You simply can not reduce the importance of speed and the ability to advance w/o the benefit of a hit. Ricky Henderson made his way to the HOF because of it. If a hitter can steal 2nd and 3rd and score on a sac fly then that’s basically the same result as a HR.
its a 162 game season…..just thought i’d point that out