They've had a winning season more recently than the Pirates, but the last quarter century has not been kind to the Royals. The only Royals team to finish at or above .500 since 1994 was the 2003 club that finished 83-79. And it's been so long since Kansas City made the playoffs that 16 players on the Royals' 40-man roster weren't even alive to see George Brett, Bret Saberhagen & Co. win the I-70 series in 1985.
But Dayton Moore has improved the team's farm system since taking over as GM early in the 2006 season and the Royals now boast the best group of prospects in baseball. So although Billy Butler, Alcides Escobar and Joakim Soria aren't expected to lead the Royals to a winning record this year, it won't be a surprise if the Royals are winners again before long. They were once one of baseball's model franchises – when will they become winners again?
I’m sure the fans will get all excited about going 83-79, missing the playoffs, and then rebuilding again.
I don’t mean to be a hater, but forgive me if I’m a bit skepitcal of Dayton Moore, but I agree that I don’t think it will come together, and they will end up trading away all of their good pieces and continue their perpetual rebuilding process for another decade
He sucks.
On another note, why isnt never an option?
yes…and your nationals have such a great history of winning….
HE never said the nationals did….your statement literally makes no sense and is completely unrelated to anything he said.
his avatar is the nationals logo and he’s bashing MY organization? How long has it been since the Nationals/Expos had a winning team? About the same as the Royals? The Royals future looks much brighter for the Royals than the Nats even with the nats being bad enough to get the first pick in back to back drafts….drafts with historically great #1 overall picks.
Sorry but I agree that your post was stupid since I wasn’t saying anything about the Nats but indeed I’d rather have the Nats future — maybe not for 2011-13 (although the Nats have a shot at being good in 2012/2013) but for after that. The Nats are actually trying to compete always not playing small market ball for a 1-3 year window of competing every decade or so.
I don’t think the chance of being over .500 in 2012 is as remote as some analysts think it is. Not only do we have a fantastic collection of young talent, but we’ve got a lot of payroll flexibility (thank you, Gil!) and we are in a position that we can make a trade or tread the free agent waters in order to fill in some gaps.
Regarding the organization as a whole, even if you assume a 50% attrition rate with our prospects, our system is so deep that we would still net 2-3 great bats and 2-3 great pitchers… more than enough to build a winner around in a 6 year window.
The future is indeed bright.
I said 2013, but its certainly possible before that. I look at their roster and see a lot of underperforming players sans Billy Butler & Soria. It’s like any other team. If everyone performs as well or better than they can then it’s possible to be over .500. No one can truly predict what they or other teams will do in the future. But I’m going with 2013 because by then prospects will either be ready or traded and those in the bigs now should be developed enough.
The pitching still needs to develop. It doesn’t matter how great the lineup ends up being if Hosmer and Moustakas turn into superstars. They had a great outfield once with Beltran/Dye/Damon and it never resulted to winning. Then they thought they were going in the right direction with the team in 2003 before completely falling apart 2nd half of the year and the “bright” future of those prospects never panned out. Guys like Montgomery, and Crow need to develop into great starters for them to ever have a chance.
Comparing this crop to 2003 is just plain irresponsible.
Understood, but how many of a teams top prospects end up panning out anyway? You can’t expect every single one to turn out great. Maybe half, and for KC’s sake, they better hope that half is the pitching.
Assume a 50% attrition rate… that still gives the Royals 3 very good pitchers and 3 very good hitters. I don’t think you understand the Royals system… it’s not just that we’ve got a handful of blue chip prospects, but that we’ve got a handful of blue chip prospects and a crap ton of depth behind them.
I never said they would all turn out. I sure hope they do, but realistically, it’s just not going to happen. I was just pointing out the absurdity of comparing Allard Baird’s Royals system to DM’s. As frustrating as DM has been on the major league level, I just don’t think some people really understand the mess he inherited.
heres a good resource to answer that question
how though? yes im a whitesox fan so im a bit biased but i want the royals to play well to make the central more than a 2.5 team race. But you have to assume only 3 maybe 4 of the position players will make it to the bigs. And 1 of those 4, will be a legit star, a second one being a good solid mlb player and optimistically thinking the other two will at least be able to help as bench player(and thats huge optimism there) and out of the pitchers maybe just maybe 2 will make it as starters and 2 as relievers. but whos to say they will be anything more than average. Thats the problem with prospects. They can have killer springs or minor league stats and never do anything in the bigs…for example look at past whitesox “stud” prospects…josh fields(pretty much out of the MLB) chris getz(not a star but a solid player) gio gonzoles(making his way to be good but who knows) brandon allen(nothing truly special there) sweeyen(average if that) Tyler flowers(lost it some how) yes they have beckham and sale now but thats 2 players in the past 5 years that have made it to the bigs and made a good impact. as a royals fan you are well aware of teahan and gordon..these two were supposed to be the next big thing. teahan is fighting for a super sub spot and gordon simply cant play on an everyday basis…so to think that just because they have an awesome farm and assuming that means they will compete is kind of a stretch and considering the sox have a solid team now and a few guys in the minors playing very well…the twins are the twins and have a solid young pitching staff, and joe freaking mauer and some good farm hands…the tigers have a good amount of young pitching that should be seen pretty soon and they still have miggy as long as he gets his drinking under controll. and the indians have a good farm system and choo as well…I dont think the royals are the next big thing in terms of teams because their Gm seems to want to sign past their prime vets who can help at all as apposed to giving young guys a shot but they will for sure make the cnetral more interesting in years to come assuming that at least 4 of these highly touted prospects even make it to the bigs and carry even 75% of their ability over to the bigs….but remember AA is totally different than AAA and MLB is 100% different than AAA..
I stopped reading halfway through the second sentence. That grammar is pretty killer.
First off, use some punctuation. Second, comparing the White Sox “stud” prospects to the current prospects for the Royals is completely unfair. With the exception of Beckham and Sale, none of those guys were truly studs. Let’s take a look at BaseballAmerica’s rankings to compare:
Josh Fields: highest ranking in 2007 @ #45
Chris Getz: never ranked in top 100
Gio Gonzalez: highest ranking (as a WS) in 2007 @ #72
Tyler Flowers: highest ranking in 2009 @ #99
Now for the Royals in 2011:
Eric Hosmer #8
Mike Moustakas #9
Wil Myers #10
Mike Montgomery #19
You were comparing a Lambourgini to a Ford Pinto…
They’ll need to be competitive in the division to get there, so who’s going to slip? The White Sox seem a fair candidate to start down-trending but I wouldn’t bet on it. The Twins and Tigers don’t seem to be going down anytime soon. I’d like to believe 2013 but it looks like business as usual for ’11, gotta start the clock on a few of these guys.
why do the whitesox seem to be down trending? most of their team is young. Gordon beckham is going into his second FULL year of MLB, alexi is already one of the top SS in the leagu and locked up for 4 more years. Brent Morell seems to be legit. Rios is locked up and young and showed that he is still a very good player. Vicedio is only 22 and looking to take away quentins spot in right(which is good because vicedio is a better all around player) juan is on his way out to be replaced either by mitchell or jordan danks(both very good fast young defensivley minded out fielders) phigly looks to be the catcher of the future and they still have a highly touted SS prospect in escobar who could find his way to the bigs soon baring an injury or a position change. Dunn is still pretty young and as a DH his career will be greatly extended…really the only tw old guys are konerko and AJ and AJ is only a 2 year deal(by that time either flowers will figure it out, phigley will be there or a new catcher will be brought in) Konerko is only on a 3 year deal and splitting time with dunn at DH his career should be nice enough to finish at least with his career norms by the end. And their pitching is very good and very young with floyd, danks sale and peavy,
Dude… there’s this rectangular key immediately to the right of the ” key… it’s labeled ‘Enter’ and it really helps make your posts readable. I highly suggest you try it.
Peavy is getting older/ineffective/injured/expensive. Rios isnt young. Dunn/Konerko are old/getting old and expensive. Buehrle could be gone. Their minor league system is worthless, etc….
peavy is 30 this year(still mid prime for pitchers) and has only had 2 major injuries in his career, and only one of those was a pitching injury. And every mri, xray and pitching test show him being recovered and ahead of schedule. Dr. James Andrews said his shoulder looked fine. And all the coaches have said they are surprised how well everything is going for peavy.
Rios is 30 again mid prime for out fielders.
Dunn is 32 edge of prime for hitters and considering he is going to spend most of the season as a DH he is going to age just fine. (consider that albert is the same age and no one is talking about him getting old and being bad)
Konerko is the oldest at 35 end of prime for 1st basemen. and he is going to be splitting time at DH and getting days off with vicedio in there he will be just fine.
Yes buehrle might be gone next season but he also might not be, and anyways buehrle is not the sox best pitcher and more and everyone knows that. Even if buehrle leaves there is still john danks, peavy, floyd and Chris sale in there as well also a possible extension for jackson.
their minor league system might not be top 10 but considering they have 2nd, SS, CF, C, 1st and DH locked up for the next few years. And the possiblity of morell being the long term answer at 3rd, its not like they need a top 10 system to compete.
The bullpen is very good, they have the best left hander in the game in thornon. There is santos who was amazing last year considering it was his first MLB season as a pitcher and crain in there as well the bullpen is fine.
The only real pressing need for the next few years are corner outfield spots. Which either Mitchell or Danks(two highly touted prospects in the sox eyes and many scouts eyes) will take over in left and maybe center pushing rios to right or Vicedo who is getting starts in right this season could take over ther for carlos quentin
i have much respect for Dr. Andrews, but does it not bother you that Peavy’s average fb velocity has gone down 4 straight years? That signals either him not aging well or he’s been hurt for 4 years. He’s also throw just over 100 innings the past two seasons.
How can you expect all of those prospects to make it to the majors when you were just arguing that you can only expect a small percentage of the Royals prospects to make it?
The central is a good division and do not count out the indians in the coming years. It all depends on how many of these prospects develop into actual players and perform well. Some come up and immediately start raking while others take a bit to find their stride. I think it will be later then 2014, especially when you are in a division with the tigers/white sox/twins who also have decent players in the farm system and franchise guys locked up for awhile.
the indians are in a similar situation to the royals…except with a significantly worse system than the royals
The indians have much better major league talent though, especially if their guys can stay healthy.
first of all, counting on sizemore for anything at this point makes no sense. Choo isnt far from free agency and he’s a boras guy so you know he’s testing it. Carmona is up and down. The only good, young player that they have locked up for the time when the decent minor league system will be bearing fruit is Carlos Santana.
choo is 4 yrs from FA. maybe 3
As this poll’s vote distribution indicates…no one knows when circumstances will change sufficiently within this Kansas City organization to make them a winning franchise, not even the Royals.
68% think they’ll be 500 within the next 3 years….
Which poll are you looking at? I don’t think it’s the one at the top of the page.
BA’s Callis was recently asked the same and his answers were:
2012 for .500
2013 for playoffs
2015 for WS
Was looking for 1978..But there was no retroactive button available…
It still a crapshoot. I liked when fangraphs compared this farm system to the last really good farm (The diamondbacks a few years back). That farm had top prospects like Chris Young, Justin Upton, Steven Drew, Mark Reynolds, and they had some nice pitchers too (I think Owings was one pretty nicely ranked one) but where are the DBacks now?
There’s so much more than just having the right farm to be even .500. Those players first actually have to make it in the bigs (ala Alex Gordon), pitchers have to remain healthy, they must reach projections, and this all has to happen within that short window. I like what the Royals have don’t but I’m not preordering any Royal playoff tickets anytime soon.
The Royal will compete again when the world ends! Wait, you saying its ending in 2012? Oh…… They’ll be good in 2013