We're just four weeks into the season, so prospective free agents still have lots of time to establish their value before hitting the open market. Cliff Lee, who went on to become last offseason's most highly coveted free agent, had made just one start at this point last year. Adrian Beltre also started slowly; he was homerless with a .772 OPS last April before heating up and re-establishing his free agent value.
Other free agents used April as a springboard for standout walk years. Carl Crawford (.941 OPS, 7 steals) and Jayson Werth (.987 OPS) used the first month of the season to establish themselves as top free agents in 2010. With that in mind, here's a look at what ten members of this year's free agent class have done over the course of the first four weeks of the season:
- Albert Pujols - It took him a few games to heat up, but Pujols has 7 homers, 18 RBI and a .258/.321/.485 line. It's nothing special, but he has been unlucky on balls in play and has hit like his usual self since the middle of the month.
- C.C. Sabathia - Sabathia can opt out of the four years and $92MM remaining on his contract after the season and the way he's pitching, he may be able to obtain more guaranteed money that way. Sabathia is putting together another phenomenal season, with a 2.25 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.
- Prince Fielder - Fielder leads the NL with 23 RBI and has a .326/.415/.565 line. Agent Scott Boras figures to be asking for Mark Teixeira money ($180MM) and then some this offseason.
- Jose Reyes - Reyes has a robust .321/.359/.459 line with 8 stolen bases and 11 extra base hits. If he keeps this up, could ask for $100MM-plus this winter.
- Jimmy Rollins - Rollins, 32, has a .271/.346/.354 line so far this season. He's getting on base at a respectable clip, but he has never had a season with a slugging percentage this low. It seems unlikely that Rollins will have another 30 homer season, as his slugging percentage and isolated power have been in decline since 2007.
- C.J. Wilson - Wilson's 3-0 record and 3.51 ERA look good and he's striking our nearly a batter per inning (8.4 K/9). He has a career-best walk rate so far (2.4 BB/9) after struggling with walks for years.
- Carlos Beltran - With 3 homers and a .280/.359/.488 line, the 34-year-old Beltran is off to a strong start. Seemingly healthy after two injury-plagued seasons, he is now playing right field (though agent Scott Boras insists he can still handle center).
- Mark Buehrle - Buehrle, 32, has a 5.12 ERA, but his peripheral stats suggest that his ERA should fall closer to his 3.87 career mark. Buehrle, who averaged 33 starts per year over the course of the last decade, leads the league with six starts in 2011.
- Jonathan Papelbon - Elite relief pitching is arguably the biggest strength of the upcoming free agent class, so it remains to be seen whether Papelbon will have much leverage this winter. He's off to an excellent start, with 5 saves, a 1.93 ERA, 11.6 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9.
- Heath Bell - Bell would like to stay in San Diego, but the Padres may not be able to afford him. If he keeps pitching like this – 0.90 ERA, 5 saves, 6.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 – someone else will be happy to pay for his services. His strikeout rate has dipped, but it's early.
Note that I haven't included Robinson Cano, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and others whose teams could exercise options for 2012.
Wow, Lance Berkman nowhere to be found…
Yea if Berkman keeps on this tear, he might be best outfield/1B hitter on market
your inclusion of /1B is very concerning
He’s more of a 1B than an outfielder. If he’s decent in the field this year and stays hot with the bat, it’ll make him the clear comeback player of the year. And honestly, it couldn’t happen to a better guy.
Never include Berkman, best and 1B in the same sentence when guys like Puhols and Fielder will be FA next year. Never, ever, ever.
At least spell his name right. PUJOLS
He could, however, be this year’s Aubrey Huff; cheap, and gave you a lot more than what you paid for. A possible cheap solution for teams who need a 1B upgrade but can’t swing Albert or Prince.
By the way, the two combined names of the two hottest FA’s next year will be Prince Albert 🙂
I am rooting to keep Pujols on the Cards!
agreed.
feilder to jays
meh.. jays have more glaring holes .
You mean to say you don’t think they have a problem hitting home runs?
something like that
Him n Lind switch first and DH and hitting behind Jose would be a killer..what are the glaring holes you speak of?
CF, 2B, for the time being 3B but Lawrie may prove to fill that.
Doesn’t Lawrie already have 6 errors at 3rd?
Unfortunately, I see him going to the Cubs.
Jimmy Rollins has only had one 30 homer year, so it seems kind of unfair to hold him to that standard. He also remains one of the premier defensive shortstops in the MLB. For that reason alone, he’d be worth signing.
Fielder to the O’s?