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2012 Contract Issues: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series.  Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:

Eligible For Free Agency (5)

  • Carlos Guillen had knee surgery in September, and coupled with recent back tightness there's no timetable for his 2011 debut.  It's safe to say the Tigers will be moving on.
  • Magglio Ordonez is on the DL for right ankle weakness.  Surgery on that ankle ended his 2010 season in July.  His '11 season is too much of an unknown to make any predictions for '12.
  • Brad Penny has already topped last year's nine starts, though his peripheral stats suggest an ERA close to 5.00.  I imagine Penny will keep getting chances.
  • Joel Zumaya had exploratory elbow surgery this month and may not return this season.  The Tigers won't be re-signing the hard-throwing righty, wrote SI's Jon Heyman.
  • Utility infielder Ramon Santiago is also eligible for free agency.

Contract Options (1)

  • Jose Valverde: $9MM club option with no buyout.  Should the closer's success continue, the Tigers will probably exercise his option.

Arbitration Eligible (6)

Porcello, Scherzer, Coke, and Perry are the significant cases.  Porcello has a cheap club option for '12, though I imagine he can and will choose arbitration instead.  Scherzer has built a strong resume, and while he's not in Clayton Kershaw/David Price territory he could get $4MM.  Porcello, starting from a higher salary than most pitchers, could reach the same level.  Coke and Perry should be more affordable.  In total I'll estimate $11MM for the four.   

2012 Payroll Obligation

The Tigers' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $73.875MM.  Add in Valverde and the arbitration eligibles and they're around $94MM, $13MM shy of the 2011 payroll before accounting for minimum salary players.  The Tigers' payroll has topped $130MM a couple of times, so there might be additional flexibility.

Arbitration Eligible Players For 2012

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As part of the process for the 2012 Contract Issues series I determined the players projected to be eligible for arbitration for each team.  Right now about 230 players project to be arbitration eligible, but a good 60 of them will probably be released, demoted, or non-tendered, so focus on the bigger names.  Click below to see the current list.

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2012 Contract Issues: Boston Red Sox

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The Red Sox are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series.  Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:

Eligible For Free Agency (6)

  • J.D. Drew owns a line of .268/.376/.468 in 2,243 plate appearances as a member of the Red Sox.  Drew has provided value, but he'll be 36 in November and his power is declining.  In March he talked about retirement as a possibility.  There's a good chance the Red Sox look outside the organization for a replacement.
  • Designated hitter David Ortiz had been a slow starter since 2008, but he was decent in April this year and has been killing it in May.  Ortiz wants to finish his career with the Red Sox, but Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wrote in March that the team is "itching to abandon a full-time DH and initiate a rotation at that position."  Last offseason the decision on Ortiz's option was entirely in the team's hands, but this winter he could field offers elsewhere, especially if the Sox remain reluctant to guarantee two years.
  • Closer Jonathan Papelbon has been dominant, with an 11.8 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 in 20 2/3 innings.  Daniel Bard has been solid, but other possible late-inning holdovers like Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler have not.  Papelbon would be a big loss, but in free agency he figures to seek at least a three-year deal in the $36MM range.  In March, Papelbon told Rosenthal it's "50-50" and "a tossup" that he will remain in Boston.
  • Mike Cameron has served mainly as Drew's platoon partner this year, appearing in 15 games overall.  Cameron hinted to WEEI's Alex Speier that he hasn't ruled out retirement after the season, but now is not the time for that decision.
  • Catcher Jason Varitek told MLB.com's Ian Browne in February he wants to play into his 40s, so he'll probably re-sign as Boston's backup if they'll have him.
  • Tim Wakefield replaced John Lackey in the rotation, though Lackey may come off the DL on June 5th.  Wakefield's stance on retiring after the season seems to have softened, given comments made in October, December, and January.  The active career wins leader by a long shot, Wakefield is only six from 200. 

Contract Options (2)

  • Marco Scutaro: $6MM club option/$3MM player option with a $1.5MM buyout.  Scutaro is often mentioned as a trade candidate.  His club seems likely to decline their end of the option.  In that case Scutaro may prefer to take the buyout and have the flexibility to choose his team.
  • Dan Wheeler: $3MM+ vesting option.  Wheeler has struggled this year in terms of home runs and hits allowed, but his 2012 option vests with 53 more appearances.  A May stint on the disabled list probably means he'll be a free agent after the season.

Arbitration Eligible (9)

Bard, Lowrie, Ellsbury, and Saltalamacchia are the biggest cases here, though the Sox may end up tendering contracts to all but Atchison.  I'll put the group as a whole around $14MM.

2012 Payroll Obligation

Boston's 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $126.934MM including Scutaro's buyout.  Throw in $14MM for arbitration eligibles, and we're about $23MM shy of this year's payroll before accounting for minimum salary players.  Possible needs include right field, designated hitter, the rotation, and the bullpen.  It would be hard to add premium players in free agency to fill these needs if the flexibility is around $23MM in 2012 salaries.

Of course, the Red Sox do not calculate payroll in the simplistic way I just did.  Perhaps no team does, but Boston's payroll requires extra maneuvering because of the luxury tax.  Still, the use of AAVs instead of salaries again puts the Sox around $125MM in commitments before arbitration eligibles are accounted for.  I think the Red Sox will have to raise payroll or backload the contract if they are to get involved on, say, C.C. Sabathia.  Perhaps instead of free agency the Red Sox will lean toward trades, where the main expenditure would be prospects rather than money.    

Yankees Notes: Soriano, Colon

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After a rousing come-from-behind win last night, the Yankees are atop the AL East by a half game.  The latest on the club:

  • A third MRI on Rafael Soriano's elbow has prompted the Yankees to send the pricey reliever to see Dr. James Andrews, report Mark Feinsand and Sean Brennan of the New York Daily News.  The writers note that this marks Soriano's sixth elbow-related DL stint; he's a survivor of Tommy John surgery and ulnar nerve transposition surgery.  I'm not sure what surgeries are left, but the decision by Hal and Hank Steinbrenner and Randy Levine to overrule GM Brian Cashman on this signing is looking bad.  If the team's bullpen depth is compromised due to the Soriano injury, Cashman might be forced to throw more money and/or prospects at the situation.
  • A baseball official reviewed video of the procedures done on Bartolo Colon's elbow and shoulder, physician Leonel Liriano told Marc Carig of the Newark Star-Ledger.  "I feel that they know that everything is good," remarked Liriano.  MLB has been concerned that Colon's stem cell therapy could have involved the use of HGH.
  • Our 2012 contract issues entry for the Yankees was published a week ago, check it out.  Many key players have unresolved contract situations.
  • Our post on each team's draft picks reveals that the Yankees are one of 14 teams with two picks within the first 90.  The Yankees will sit out until pick #51 overall, the longest wait for any team aside from the Tigers.  The draft is less than two weeks away.

Quick Hits: Orioles, Cardinals, De La Rosa, Matsuzaka

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Links for Tuesday night, as Tigers catcher Alex Avila enjoys his third career two-homer game…

  • Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail told MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli that he will continue considering internal and external replacements for Brian Roberts, who won't return before the end of May (Twitter link). 
  • Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explains that the Cardinals demoted Mitchell Boggs in spite of his strong 2011 numbers because they can stretch him out at Triple-A. The Cards could have near-term needs for starters or middle relievers. 
  • On a related note, GM John Mozeliak told Tom Krasovic of MLB.com that he may explore trades for relievers at the deadline. However, Mozeliak says it’s still too early to predict with certainty that the bullpen will be the Cardinals’ biggest need this summer.
  • Rockies left-hander Jorge de la Rosa has a complete tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow, the team announced (on Twitter). Tommy John surgery appears to be a likely option for de la Rosa.
  • Troy Renck of the Denver Post suggests we should keep Kevin Slowey in mind as a possible target for the Rockies should they look outside of the organization for rotation depth (Twitter link).
  • Yahoo's Jeff Passan calls Daisuke Matsuzaka a "$103MM migraine" and reports that the right-hander has ignored what the Red Sox have wanted him to do since signing with Boston. Matsuzaka, who has a sprained UCL, might never pitch for the Red Sox again if he needs Tommy John surgery, according to Passan.
  • Jim Bowden of ESPN.com previews his top five potential sellers at this year's trade deadline: the Mets, Astros, Twins, Cubs and Padres.

Heath Bell’s Trade Value

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The last time a team traded Heath Bell, they ended up regretting it, but the 2006 deal that sent Bell and Royce Ring from the Mets to the Padres for Jon Adkins and Ben Johnson hasn't prevented the 33-year-old closer from appearing in a near-constant stream of trade rumors.

We checked in on Bell’s trade value before the 2010 season started and again last May. The rumors continued throughout the summer and restarted last offseason, when a deal seemed distinctly possible. Now that the Padres are off to a 19-29 start, the rumors have started once again.

The Rangers and a number of other teams have inquired on Bell, so let’s take stock of his trade value yet again (though the Padres are just listening at this point). He can still pitch, though he’s succeeding with a different method this year. Bell has a 2.12 ERA with nine saves and though his strikeout rate has dropped to 6.4 K/9, his ground ball rate is up to 54.9%. His fastball checks in at an impressive 93.4 mph.

Demand for a pitcher with numbers like that figures to be strong, especially since Bell has a track record of All-Star level production. A number of contenders – the Angels, Rangers, Tigers and Cardinals, for example – could use relief help and may have interest in Bell. Consider that few teams appear ready to sell and his value only increases.

Bell makes $7.5MM this year and hits free agency after the season, which will limit his value to an extent. Not every team has a few million kicking around for a mid-summer acquisition, especially one who’s on the brink of free agency.

Bell should net his team a pair of high draft picks in 2012, which increases his trade value. He was first among all NL relievers in last year’s Elias rankings and though this year’s rankings have yet to be determined, another stellar season figures to place Bell in Type A territory. That means the Padres or any other team would be able to obtain two picks by offering arbitration, assuming Bell turns it down.

Though Bell could technically accept arbitration and take a one-year deal for $10MM or so, that seems highly unlikely. He said while discussing an extension this spring that his “biggest thing is that [he’d] like three years." And he has surely noticed that teams are willing to part with draft picks for top relievers. Clubs grumble about it, but they have surrendered draft choices to sign Scott Downs, Grant Balfour, Rafael Soriano, Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Billy Wagner, Juan Cruz, Brian Fuentes and Francisco Rodriguez over the course of the past three offseasons.

If the Padres don’t like the offers they receive, they can sit back, offer Bell arbitration and obtain a pair of high picks in 2012. Given Bell’s history of production, his 2011 success and the number of contenders with bullpen issues, the Padres may not have to wait a year to cash in on Bell. I won’t be surprised if some team offers the Padres a top prospect for their closer this summer in spite of his generous salary.

Draft Notes: Gray, Bichette, Rendon, Mets

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A year ago, the Nationals had already decided to select Bryce Harper first overall. If the Pirates have decided on this year's top selection, we haven't heard about it, but we can pass along these updates about the 2011 draft:

  • An American League scouting director told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that he believes in Sonny Gray's ability to pitch well when it matters. "If you need to win a game," the scouting director said, "you want Sonny Gray pitching for you. He's that kind of guy."
  • As Jonathan Mayo shows at MLB.com, relatives of well-known sports figures like Dante Bichette, Scott Boras and Wayne Gretzky are eligible for this year's draft.
  • Anthony Rendon headlines Mayo's list of top corner infield prospects at MLB.com. Rendon has four plus tools and can run better than people give him credit for, according to Mayo. However, the third baseman has dealt with two injuries this year.
  • As Mayo explains at MLB.com, the Cron family features a pair of prospects: Utah first baseman C.J. Cron and high school catcher Kevin Cron. Their father, Chris, made it to the Major Leagues with the 1991 Angels and the 1992 White Sox.
  • Peter Gammons of MLB Network suggests the Mets may well select UNC shortstop Levo Michael with the 13th overall pick (Twitter link).

Nationals Rumors: LaRoche, Ramirez, Bernadina

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Livan Hernandez threw out the first pitch in Washington Nationals history, and tonight he's taking on the Brewers in his 456th career start. Let's recap the latest from the nation's capital…

  • MLB.com's Bill Ladson hears that Adam LaRoche has a large tear in his labrum and some tearing in his rotator cuff (Twitter links). He'll rehab for two or three weeks, but won't swing a bat or throw.
  • GM Mike Rizzo told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that his team is "playing terrific baseball except for the fact that we’re struggling with runners in scoring position." He's not looking for scapegoats though, and he's satisfied with the work of manager Jim Riggleman and hitting coach Rick Eckstein. As a team, the Nats are hitting .223 with runners in scoring position, fifth worst in baseball.
  • Washington returned Rule 5 Draft pick Brian Broderick to the Cardinals yesterday, and Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post says they won't have to make a decision on their other Rule 5 pick, reliever Elvin Ramirez, for a while. The former Mets' farmhand had shoulder surgery and will be out for the season. The Nats can keep him through the offseason, but the Rule 5 Draft rules will still apply in 2012.
  • Ben Goessling of MASNSports.com wrote about the team's outfield logjam now that Rick Ankiel has come off the disabled list. They need to figure out if and how Roger Bernadina fits into their long-term plans.

Rangers, Others Have Inquired On Heath Bell

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The Rangers are one of several teams that have recently inquired about Padres closer Heath Bell, according to Scott Miller of CBS Sports. The 19-29 Padres are not interested in dealing Bell yet and the Rangers are simply checking their options, according to Miller.

Bell, who discussed a possible extension with the Padres this spring, is a free agent after the season. He realizes he’s a trade candidate, but says he’d like to stay in San Diego.

"In my own quirky head, I still think something will happen at the end of the year and I'll stay here,” he said. “It's wait-and-see. But I understand the business part. We've got to play well and get some fans in here."

Bell, 33, will lead a substantial number of closers into free agency after the season, as Tim Dierkes explained earlier today. So far, Bell has a 2.12 ERA with nine saves and though his strikeout rate has dropped to 6.4 K/9, his ground ball rate is up to 54.9%.

The Rangers have also made "low-level inquiries" on Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan. Entering today's action, Rangers relievers ranked 29th in baseball in K/9 (6.0) and xFIP (4.61), 28th in baseball in BB/9 (4.7) and ground ball rate (40%) and 24 in baseball in ERA (4.15).

Dodgers Designate Lance Cormier For Assignment

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The Dodgers designated Lance Cormier for assignment to create roster space for Rubby De La Rosa, according to Bill Shaikin of the LA Times (on Twitter). Cormier signed a minor league deal worth $1.2MM in February.

The 30-year-old right-hander pitched 13 2/3 innings for the Dodgersthis yearand posted a 9.88 ERA with 4.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. Cormier, an eight-year veteran, has a 5.07 ERA with 5.3 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 over the course of 290 big league appearances, mostly in relief. His 63.8% ground ball rate places him tenth among relievers with at least ten innings pitched (Cormier's career mark is 51.6%).

De La Rosa, 22, has a 2.92 ERA with 11.7 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 at Double-A this year. Before the season, the right-hander placed third on Baseball America's list of top Dodgers prospects and 90th in all of baseball.

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