The Cubs' GM search has the potential to impact the Red Sox front office, if Theo Epstein or Ben Cherington are near the top of Chicago's wish list. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe leads his Sunday Baseball Notes by addressing the possibility of a mutual interest between Epstein and the Cubs. As one AL team president points out, even if that interest exists, the Red Sox don't have to grant the Cubs permission to talk to Epstein: "I don't see why they would [grant permission]. They have one of the best GMs in the game. I know if I were the team president of the Red Sox or in ownership, I wouldn't let that happen."
Here are the other highlights from Cafardo's piece:
- Brian Cashman's name has also come up in Cubs GM rumors, but Cafardo's source doesn't expect Chicago to land Cashman or Epstein: "My best guess is both stay where they are and get the paycheck they're looking for…. They're not going to make more money elsewhere. The Cubs may offer a lot, but both Boston and New York can offer more, and I think they will."
- Marlins right-hander Javier Vazquez is seriously considering retirement after this season, and appears to have made up his mind one way or the other, as he told reporters earlier this week.
- Cardinals GM John Mozeliak would like to see former first round pick Tyler Greene get some big league playing time in September so the club has a better idea of how to plan for 2012.
- The Red Sox were among the teams who put in a waiver claim for Jason Kubel, though they were blocked by the Indians.
hopefully Ben Cherington doesn’t get the job…with the way these buddies of Theo are, he’ll give away Starlin Castro for Jose Iglasias and two other mediocre/Peter Gammons’ favorites from the farm. Like good ol’ Jed Hoyer and the garbage deal he got back for A-Gon.
Nobody wants Starlin Castro anyway.
Why does nobody want a 21 year old that is leading the league in hits
He can’t take a walk to save his life, he has a -7 UZR, and he apparently has Hanley’s attitude without the talent.
I watch him on a pretty regular basis, and he is a very good player. UZR isn’t kind to his defense(I’m guessing) because he often makes a bone-headed 21 year-old play. Which is to be expected. His attitude is nothing like Hanley’s. He doesn’t act entitled and I have never seen a report of him being bad in the clubhouse. The kid is going to be very good and it wouldn’t hurt my feelings at all to see the Cubs trade him away.
except for the attitude part, i don’t understand this rebuttal. you concede that he’s got a terrible walk-rate (and consequently depends entirely on his career ~350 BABIP to sustain average offensive production) and is below average defensively
the best thing about him is his age. he’s not bad and he could end up really good. but he’s not very good right now
(just got my electricity back)
I don’t mean his attitude as in clubhouse presence, I guess I would have been better of saying his work ethic, he was bench not that long ago for “taking plays off” defensively, and not even looking at home plate when the pitch is being thrown. And errors are only a small part of UZR, and players can have good (even very good) UZRs despite making lots of errors. Elvis Andrus for example has made 25 errors and still has a 2.5 UZR, and Casey McGehee has a 8.0 UZR despite making 18 errors.
Like notsureifsrs said, he’s still young and he’s not a bad player, so there is upside there, but he’s just not a great player right now. And I really doubt there is any way the Theo would trade Iglesias even for him, let alone along with a couple other players as was originally mentioned.
The hysteria about Castro’s fielding is largely unfounded, as he is an unusually young player to make the majors as an everyday shortstop and that must be weighed in. Many, if not most, players who eventually become above-average shortstops struggle defensively at a young age because their exceptional range so increases the number of balls they make plays on that they have much higher number of miscues until they settle in.
Now I’m not saying Castro is going to end up in this company. Definitely not saying that. But compare his errors as a 21 year old to those of Omar Vizquel at 21, Rey Ordonez at 21, and Ozzie Smith at 22 (he didn’t start professional baseball ’til that age). (I’m using errors because there isn’t exactly UZR for early 80s minor leaguers.)
Castro: 129 games, 27 errors.
Vizquel: 134 games, 25 errors.
Ordonez: 127 games, 23 errors.
Smith: 65 games, 23 errors.
How will Castro develop defensively? I do not know. But people using his miscues he’s making at such an amazingly young age need to bear in mind that we’re only getting to see these because his bat is so much more developed than any of those other players that he’s in the bigs at the age they were riding buses to Topeka. And those guys, like most shortstops with superior range and natural talent, improved on those rough error-prone starts.
errors is about the worst thing we have to measure defense. you’d think that’d be a good thing for castro, but unfortunately the more advanced the metric gets, the less it likes him. here are those players according to their Total Zone Rating over their first seasons
smith +3 (159 games)
ordonez +11 (150 games)
vizquel +6 (143 games)
castro -12 (123 games)
ouch. what’s worse is that every single one of those shortstops got much better in their second seasons. if anything, castro has gotten worse
the errors can be overlooked, the lack of range cannot
I think you sort of got hung up comparing defensive metrics and missed my entire point. As I mentioned in the post, I only used errors because that was only metric available that compared these players *at the same age.* Not one of those three shortstops even sniffed the majors at Castro’s current age, much less after barely turning 20 like he did. To compare them at them at the same age, you have to use minor league stats for the others.
Those guys were a couple of years older than Castro when they put up those numbers.
Again, if you read my post, I’m not saying he’s going to end up like those players. I’m only pointing out that even great shortstops struggle mightily at the tender age he’s at now.
I don’t think you know what UZR actually measures.
He never even mentioned UZR, and I’m pretty sure he knows what it measures.
Semantics, and neither UZR or TZR measure range. They both use range as part of the measurement, and neither should be used for sample sizes under three full years.
they don’t stabilize before three full years. that doesn’t mean they can’t be talked about before then, particularly if you incorporate some regression. if you’re going to discount 2500 innings of data, you should have a good reason
also, when does “i sawed him playing on mah teevee and he looked awesome!” stabilize?
I’m responding to both of your posts here, just to clarify. I don’t disagree with you, but his range rngR this year is -2, last year it was 6 . His errR this year is -3.9 last year it was 9 . If anything, his UZR is incredibly inconsistent. The guy can get to a lot of balls that most SS can’t, it doesn’t mean he is going to make the play, or not make an error. There is no question he is still a work in progress, but most guys his age are working there kinks out in the Southern Leage, not working their kinks out while leading the NL in hits.
yea, ‘range’ wasn’t the best shorthand there. but castro’s range isn’t above question by any means. the scouting reports on castro have always been primarily positive defensively, mostly because of his quick hands and fundamentals. but to quote goldstein of BP:
“Several scouts noted below-average running times to first base, and his
range is affected by it, possibly leading to a move to second base down
the road.”
Have read this from Goldstein and it’s a headscratcher. 1) Castro isn’t a blazer, but he is certainly fast enough and 2) time to first base is a different physical action than range in the infield. There are a lot of factors that go into IF range, but the long strides a player takes on his run to first really isn’t one of them.
right, you’d think quickness in bursts would be a better predictor of range ability than sprinting speed. but in this case goldstein is reporting reports from other scouts, not offering his own view. dunno
i wouldn’t even consider moving castro off of short. i think he’s overrated because he hits .300 in the bigs, but he’d be a terrific SS prospect if he were still in the minors
i actually really do think being in the majors is a hit against his overall value. his service time clock is running for two, maybe three years before he really approaches above average player status, and by then the surplus value diminishes through arbitration. he also is less able to take risks and make more significant changes in his approach to the game when he’s playing for a big league club instead of the minors where that kind of thing is expected and encouraged
i understand the temptation to bring him up — and once he’s up hitting .300, he can’t go down — but it may turn out to be a regrettable decision
As far as value, I don’t think money is going to be an issue with the Cubs. I could be misunderstanding your concern though.
Also, I think his arb years will be bought out after next season. I’d be shocked if he didn’t get an extension either mid 2012 or the offseason after.
If you think Castro lacks range than I’m afraid you don’t understand what that word means. Blind faith in defensive metrics can lead to some pretty ridiculous statements.
Ahh… UZR. Do people actually use that as some sort of trump card? It seems so trite. UZR likes Alfonso Soriano’s defense. But, hey, you go ahead on rely on that to make your case if it floats your boat. Castro has been inconsistent but he has good range and a good arm. That should be fairly obvious to anyone who has evaluated him on the field.
And the walks…sigh. Yes, he needs to improve on that but he’s not a free swinger. You’d know that if you have seen him play on a regular basis. He’s so adept at making contact that when he’s locked in, he just doesn’t swing and miss..he’s just going to put the ball in play more often than not. Saying he doesn’t have talent takes away any credibility to your statement
I think the days of relying purely on statistics have passed. Every good team knows it takes a good balance of scouting and statistical analysis. The better teams are using statistics to deepen their understanding, not as a substitute for it.
And as far as his attitude, that’s something you would know nothing about except for short little sound bytes and video clips. That hardly makes you an authority. By all accounts, Castro is a pretty humble kid who takes to coaching well. He’s a 21 year old who just loses focus from time to time — and then gets down on himself for it. A little immature maybe but he hardly has an attitude.
huff huff huff, WATCH DA GAMES I KNOW WHAT I’M TALKING ABOUT ‘CAUSE I WATCH DA GAMES
let’s see what the analysis of a stat-rejecting game-watcher yields (probably very accurate conclusions, right?)
And the walks…sigh. Yes, he needs to improve on that but he’s not a free swinger. You’d know that if you have seen him play on a regular basis.
MLB average swing %: 45.6
starlin castro swing %: 48.8
MLB average swing % out of the zone: 29.3
starlin castro swing % out of the zone: 32.4
uh ohhhhh. it looks like he got it completely wrong…
wait, maybe my faith in these stats is like, blind and stuff
no no i know! maybe these stats just need to WATCH MORE GAMES!
that high horse of yours is just a mechanical bull, duder. stop talking go have another drink
Nice try at a sterotype…you really did a number on your straw man. I actually use advanced metrics a lot. It’s blind faith in them that leads to errors in judgment –something that appears to be an unyielding compulsion in your case. As anyone who understands the game these days, the best formula is a blend of the two disciplines.
Those numbers are too vague to make any serious judgment. Castro can hit pitches just outside the strike zone with regularity, but he doesn’t swing wildly at everything thrown up there.
Show me something that proves to me that you understand the game beyond the stat page at Fangraphs…I’m sure the silence will be deafening.
And on the contrary, it’s the guys who read stats and then either don’t watch games or filter their perception of the game through those stats that put themselves on a pedestal.
Those numbers are too vague to make any serious judgment. Castro can
hit pitches just outside the strike zone with regularity, but he doesn’t
swing wildly at everything thrown up there.
lol
the guy who pooped his pants over a strawman claim he couldn’t even substantiate now pretends “he’s not a free swinger” (his first statement) equates to “he doesn’t swing wildly at everything thrown” (his revised statement now that we’ve seen the stats disproving the first)
i get your game, brosef. discount stats when they betray your preconceptions, but endorse them in the abstract so no one can call you out on being a traditionalist fool. that sleight of hand stuff should on most people, good job! the literate minority will still be laughing at you though while finding you too boring to be worth correcting =(
btw, laughing at you for scoffing at stats doesn’t mean (or even imply) that i don’t WATCH DA GAMES myself. what was happening there was that i was making fun of you for ignoring one of the two (stats & watching), not making a claim that the other (watching) ought to be ignored instead of the other
but you already knew that. because you’re very smart. so smart that you know you should ignore objective data in which others are placing “blind faith”. and instead rely on your subjective, unqualified, personal observational experience. unlike stats, that’s faith-proof!
Not surprisingly, you misunderstood and you continue to try and paint me as someone who doesn’t use statistics as opposed to someone who prefers to balance the two disciplines of evaluation through scouting and statistical analysis. Your hubris may impress the 12-24 age bracket, but you’ll have to do better than that here.
Simply saying that Castro is often selective in what he swings at, but you cannot read that off of a stat sheet. He is not a free swinger who goes up there without a plan. Nowhere has it been said that he shouldn’t walk more or that he swings at pitches outside of the strike zone, but the image that he’s flailing away in Soriano-like fashion is a misconception that only those who restrict themselves to reading stat sheets would have. It’s obvious to me that your knowledge of the game is limited to what numbers tell you — you are afraid to step outside that comfort zone and it prevents you from seeing the larger picture here. You can lash out at me and try to prove how smart you are, but that really doesn’t interest me at all. Despite a lifetime of studying the game,I don’t pretend to have it all figured out. I’m only interested in trying to learn as much about the game as possible…but, despite your pretenses, you have nothing original to offer in that department.
now: You can lash out at me and try to prove how smart you are, but that really doesn’t interest me at all.
before: Show me something that proves to me that you understand the game
do you often wonder why you’re not taken seriously? google duplicitous douche
now: You can lash out at me and try to prove how smart you are, but that really doesn’t interest me at all.
before: Show me something that proves to me that you understand the game
do you often wonder why you’re not taken seriously? google duplicitous
but anyways i think we’re both sufficiently impressed by each other’s internet machismo now. it’s time for a duel
Lol…you’re on!
Actually, I have an award nominated blog and have frequent correspondence with many intelligent people within the game and media. If I’m not taken seriously by the age 12-24 bracket that means very little to me…that’s your audience, not mine.
link? or just tell me how to google it
It’s called Cubs Den…today’s article is on Randy Wells, which ironically focuses on his xFIP…title of piece is Randy Wells Making A Bid to stay in Cubs 2012 Rotation Plans…if you google that or Cubs Den and my name, you should find it…
high five. here’s hoping you guys end up with one of the byrnes-beane-friedman-cashman group as GM (no epstein or cherington for you)
Thanks. I don’t think we’ll get Epstein but I’ve been trumpeting Ben Cherington as my pick since day one! Perfect fit for the Cubs…unfortunately he’s a perfect fit for you guys too.
Look into how UZR is calculated. fangraphs.com/library/index.php/defense/uzr/DH
I do know UZR…just don’t take much stock in it. Too many variations and inconsistencies for me.
I’ll respect that.
I was exaggerating, but he’s not a wunderkind. As MaineSox already pointed out, he’s got a bunch of flaws and isn’t exactly known for his moral character in the clubhouse. He’s never going to be a middle-of-the-order hitter, as well as never be a plus defender at short. If he moves out from the shortstop position, his hitting may well look a lot less impressive.
Please cite a report of him being bad in the clubhouse.
He can’t. There isn’t one. He’s confusing him with someone else or just flat making things up. Castro’s makeup is consistently said to be stellar. The knock on him is focus, and even that complaint usually comes with an advisory about how unusually young he is and how he will likely outgrow most of that.
They can’t, except for the Bobby Valentine issue…it’s nonsense. I thought these stat guys were against jumping to conclusions based on small sample sizes 😉
So Maine Sox is the authority on Castro’s moral character. I don’t even know where to start with that one. What exactly makes him an authority? The recent sound bytes in the media? Please…
…
He actually is right, Jed Hoyer has said lots of times he is a fan of the bosox and he wanted to watch what Adrián could do in Boston, so he accepted what in his words was ‘the less worse’ package from a team he knew, for players he knew. So yeah, like it or not, Jed went to San Diego with a mission to send good old buddy Theo, González in exchange for three guys who won’t amount to nothing for the next 2 seasons (plus this one)… maybe you don’t know, but Adrián got really mad at Hoyer when he was informed that Jed was not negotiating with nobody except the BoSox (this was when he was denied permission to play in Mazatlán and Hoyer got rid of Adrián’s brother, in what was seen as revenge from Hoyer because ‘Titán’ spoke his mind… and when Adrián’s dad announced a plan to invest on baseball for Mexican kids, pissing off a few people because they don’t intend to make a penny out of it).
So… what you might think its stupid, actually happened, and Hoyer has admited it more than once, even going as far as saying ‘we couldn’t know that González was as important for the team’ (when he basically meant 20-25% of their offense for the past 3 seasons in terms of Homeruns, RBI, Runs, Hits and 50% of their intentional walks), and got back three overhyped minorleaguers, a first baseman with dubious defense who can’t hit outside the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League (Rizzo), a mediocre hitter turned mediocre pitcher (Casey Kelly and his 4.13 ERA and 1.4 WHIP… last season he had a 1.6 WHIP to go with a 5.31 ERA), Fuentes who can barely bat, and a mediocre major leaguer who is already at AAA because he hit below 0.200… again (0.217 AVG lifetime for Patterson).
So yeah, like it or not, Jed went to San Diego with a mission to send
good old buddy Theo, González in exchange for three guys who won’t
amount to nothing
I would love to see a legitimate source cited for a single one of the accusations you’re throwing out there. Even if half of that was remotely likely, the fact that you sincerely believe Hoyer would say anything approaching an admission of the kind of thing you’re accusing him of would get him fired and essentially banned from baseball. I’m reasonably sure the kind of crap people level at him is very much against the CBA.
Now, I could assume you’re simply taking entirely out of context statements (Which would be the generous thing to do) indicating Hoyer was likely partial to the Red Sox’ package due to his familiarity with the Sox system. That said, the things you’re claiming are effectively completely fabricated and I don’t care how close Epstein and Hoyer may or not be outside of baseball, but no GM is going to take the lesser package as a favor to another GM if he wants to continue working in pro sports.
For all the talk about Hoyer taking the “lesser package,” I have yet to see what the alleged greater package floating out there was.
Also of note, in regards to kelly:
His ERA is bloated due to two bad starts in the last two months, otherwise, he’s been quite good considering he’s a 21 year old in AA in what I recall being a relatively hitter friendly league.
You’ve been spouting this same nonsense since the very day the deal happened; until you start coming up with some legitimate sources I’ve got nothing else to say to you about it.
Uhm, proof is out there, you just need to listen to Jed Hoyer’s interviews on 1010 AM radio, which are also uploaded to the net… and because you don’t know but i am friends with Adrian’s cousin, she lives in Tijuana and i’ve known her for a number of years, that, plus i am from Mazatlán, the city where Adrian plays every winter (maybe you’ve heard about it), and he was overly pissed, and i have not been saying it since the day it happened, i’ve posted it a year or two before it actually went down; when Adrián in a chat with people outside the Mazatlán’s Venados stadium said he had to wait until Hoyer wanted to tell him. Don’t believe me? ask him, ask him how he knew he was gonna be traded to Boston a year prior, because Hoyer said it, and Adrian’s cousin and me heard it on the radio, and he phoned him ;-).
PS
Hoyer has repeatedly said “i turn my TV every day at 4pm (Pacific time), to watch the sox, and now that Adrián is there, i have another reason to watch the sox play”. You might be one of the blind sox fans who don’t believe how it all went down and all the connections Sox-Padres have had since Towers was there (remember when the padres agreed to send their best player, Loretta in exchange for mediocre catcher Mirabelli and then agreed to send Mirabelli back when Varitek couldn’t catch Wakefield? yeeeah you do know who is the partner of John Henry, right? hehehe).
Read the second to last paragraph, he said it as recently as two months ago, but has been saying it for months before the deal happened:
fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2011/06/20/why-the-adrian-gonzalez-trade-made-sense-to-jed-hoyer/
I’d love to get Cherington. He’s not going to trade Castro. He’s smart enough to look beyond UZR (which Boston doesn’t use) when evaluating his defense. And he has enough scouting bloodlines to understand Castro’s talent at the plate.
I have been rooting for Ben Cherington all the way, so I hope this could be true!!
Kubel to Boston? Who do they DFA to create a spot, Papi? Crawford? Surely, this was a TEE block (to coin a phrase from football).
Probably McDonald would be my guess.
LOL @ calling Theo Epstein “one of the best GMs in the game.” Like Brian Cashman, he has nearly infinite resources. A monkey could run those franchises. For every “smart” contract extension these guys work out (Jon Lester, Robinson Cano) they can afford to outbid for/overpay a mediocre pitcher (John Lackey, AJ Burnett), write off international mistakes (Kei Igawa, Daisuke Matsuzaka), and stomach the underperformance of overpaid free agents (Jorge Posada, JD Drew).
Sure, money certainly helps but if that was the only thing then any team with a $100M payroll could succeed. And yet the Angels and Giants are struggling to reach the playoffs, the Cubs were run by a monkey, and the White Sox, Mets, Twins, Cards, and Dodgers won’t make the playoffs.
The major fact that you ignore is both of these teams tend to maintain farm systems that are typically some of the best in the league.
I think those teams’ failures is due more to their mismanagement than anything else. The Cubs and Mets have continually made horrendous decisions in free agency. The Twins are cheap. Colletti is an idiot, but furthermore the Dodgers can barely even make payroll. The Angels too have made terrible trades and signings (Kazmir, Wells, etc).
I’m a New Jersey transplant living in Florida and root for both the Yankees and Rays so I see both sides of the coin, and it’s far easier to be considered a great GM when you’ve got the resources, financially. I’ll take Andrew Friedman over Epstein or Cashman any day, though.
I think Friedman is amazing too, but you really need to look past the money and see what these GMs have done.
As has already been pointed out, many high-payroll teams don’t have the same kind of sustained success like Boston and NY. You say “I think those teams’ failures is due more to their mismanagement than anything else.” Well, what is being a good GM other than good management? Not sure about your point there. Yes, Friedman has had to continually wheel and deal to keep his low payroll team competitive, but having a lot of money doesn’t always solve every problem. John Lester, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Daniel Bard, Jonathan Papelbon, Josh Reddick, Ryan Lavarnway…these names don’t come to you only because Epstein has unlimited coffers. Yes, he’ll probably have a better chance at keeping a player like Ellsbury because of the money, but he still had to GET Ellsbury in the first place. And trades like the Nomar trade didn’t happen just because Epstein had tons of cash. In fact, Epstein’s track record on the free agent market, where money has the biggest direct effect, is pretty sketchy compared to a lot of his other endeavors. He’s always been a solid trader, and has a great crew working on sustaining the farm. It’s free agency where he slips up; Lackey and Crawford are currently making that pretty clear. Someone like Friedman doesn’t need to worry about a big contract going bust, because he never signs any big contracts. 😛
You forgot to add… lots of draft picks fall into the bosox hands because they ask lots of money to avoid being drafted by a perennial loser, and wait until the sox, who can afford them, offer them exactly what they were asking, as if they had been on it from the beginning… 😉
PSI wonder how the sox could pull off trades without people like Gammons and ESPN (George Mitchell, who didn’t include manny and ortíz in his PED report, part of the bosox front office, held a high rank position at ESPN and its parent company association, ABC/Disney) ovehyping their minorleaguers on national TV
The Red Sox get lots of draft picks because they won’t overpay for soon-to-be free agents. They would rather let them go instead of overpaying. Victor Martinez, Jason Bay, Pedro Martinez, etc. They would rather offer arbitration, lose them to another team that over pays them and then get the draft picks. That is smart management.
As for the hyping of prospects I think MLB teams and their GM’s do more than just watch ESPN and Peter Gammons in order to evaluate the Red Sox prospects. I think that is what their scouting departments are for.
With a payroll of $112M I’d hardly call the Twins cheap any more. But I think we’re arguing the same point, money isn’t everything.
As for Friedman over Epstein and Cashman, of course. I tend to think of Friedman as the best GM in the game.
“I think those teams’ failures is due more to their mismanagement than anything else. ”
“A monkey could run those franchises.”
Now, maybe I’m just not trying hard enough, but I am reasonably sure these two statements are completely irreconcilable.
Infinite resources are helpful, but they do not guarantee sustained success. Epstein and Cashman both have made their errors, but by and large both have been among the better GM’s in the game. Having money isn’t sufficient, being able to utilize it well is where it gets tricky.
As it currently stands, yes, I’d consider Friedman probably the best GM in the game, but I would be very curious to see how he handles a high payroll team like the Cubs.
too bad about vasquez, if he retires. he actually has been good down the stretch after a rocky start to the year.
And yet again Vázquez has been downright mediocre against teams above 0.500 winning percentage, a norm in his career (and a reason why in the caribbean series teams rejoiced whenever they were about to face him, a classic choker).
Vs teams at or above 0.500 winning percentage
Before 2011: 66-95
in 2011: 3-5, 5.08 ERA, 1.436
Lifetime: 69-100, 4.42 ERA, 1.304 WHIP
Vs teams below 0.500 winning percentage
Before 2011: 86-54
in 2011: 4-6, 4.13 ERA, 1.263 WHIP
Lifetime: 90-60, 4.13 ERA, 1.212 WHIP
In his last 10 games he has pitched against 3 teams with a winning record, his record is 6-4
TLR will put GM Mo in his place and play the players he wants that will allow him to reach his goal of being the 2nd on the win list.
Itll be Friedman, there’s not even much drama in it. Hell, it might be more likely that Joe Maddon and Friedman are working together next year with the Cubs than with the Rays,
I believe the top 3 GM candidates stay (Cashman, Friedman, and Epstein). Cashman will only use the Cubs as a bargaining chip. Epstein has years left on contract and owner won’t let Cubs speak to him. Friedman seems to have a close relationship with the owners. This will leave the second tier candidates (Hahn, Ng, or Cherington).