Connelly Early burst into the Red Sox rotation with a 2.33 ERA over his first 19 1/3 innings in the majors last September, enhancing his status as a key part of Boston’s pitching future. Cementing that future potential in the form of a contract extension, however, doesn’t yet appear to be in the team’s plans, as MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith and Chris Cotillo write that the Sox haven’t yet engaged with Early’s reps at Excel Sports Management about a long-term deal.
Part of the reason could be related to Early’s choice of agency, as Excel clients don’t usually pursue long-term extensions in general, and never so early in their big league careers. Using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker for reference, most of Excel’s extensions over the last two decades have been shorter-term deals covering two or three or a player’s arbitration years, without extending his team’s control. Former Excel client Freddie Freeman signed an eight-year, $135MM extension with the Braves back in February 2014, and Cal Raleigh signed his six-year, $105MM extension with the Mariners just under a year ago, but Freeman and Raleigh each had more than three years of MLB service at the times of those deals.
Early, by contrast, has only 20 official days on his service clock. Early and fellow southpaw Payton Tolle (31 days) each logged little enough time in their 2025 debut seasons that, as Smith and Cotillo note, the Red Sox can still gain an extra year of team control over the duo if they’re held in the minors for a certain amount of time in 2026 — Early 35 days, and Tolle 45 days.
Such considerations might factor into whether or not Early or Tolle make Boston’s Opening Day roster, but an extension would obviously overwrite things. Since Craig Breslow became the team’s chief baseball officer, the Red Sox have locked up Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Ceddanne Rafaela to long-term extensions when all three of those players had just a handful of MLB games under their belt.
Early didn’t quite have the same star-prospect status of that group, but the fifth-round pick from Boston’s 2023 draft class advanced to Double-A before the 2024 season was over. He really got himself on the radar with a 2.60 ERA, 31.9% strikeout rate, and 9.7% walk rate across 100 1/3 minor league innings (71 2/3 in Double-A, 28 2/3 in Triple-A) in 2025, leading to his late-season call-up.
If it wasn’t for the precedent of these other early-career extensions for Anthony and company, there probably wouldn’t be any discussion of a contract for Early given that he is still so new on the big league scene. The Red Sox may also want a bit more time to evaluate what they really have in Early, and if his promising development on the farm can truly translate to a good career in the majors.
Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray were new acquisitions this winter, and they’ll join Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello as the locks within the Sox pitching staff. Johan Oviedo is another new face acquired in a trade with the Pirates this winter, so he might have the edge on the fifth starter’s job even though Early and others are still competing. The likeliest scenario is that Early, Tolle, and (on rehab assignments) Patrick Sandoval and Kutter Crawford start the season at Triple-A, acting as rotation depth.
Maybe they will discuss Early later.
Chance – They were gonna extend Jason Delay, but it got delayed.
So they’re not going to sign Connelly early then, is what you’re saying…
Seems a bit early for an Early extension anyway.
Makes no sense to discuss an extension on a pitcher who is expected to begin 26 in AAA. Why start his lock before you confirm he’s ready? Only reason would be if he was Skenes…
dewey – And even Skenes wasn’t called up until mid-May!
Yeah I say barring some truly extraordinary talent there’s no reason to lock up a pitcher pre-arb. The position is just so volatile.
Early will be 24 years old in April.
If the extension is cheap enough compared to the money they wasted on giolito, Paxton, Hendriks, etc…. then it may make sense.
I remember a lot of back and forth on whether whitlocks deal was a mistake when he didnt pan out as strong of a starter,
.People complained it would be a bust.
Same thing with Bello’s deal. Last year ERA+ found him 23% better than average.
I think as long as the extension is fair value for the floor, and your upside is getting some known FA price options for a couple seasons, or, even buying out a year or two of FA, extensions are generally fine.
It’s too Early for early, a joke I expect to see 100 times in subsequent posts, especially since all 3 people before me made it.
14 IP and no rotation slot just yet? No reason to rush until service time becomes a factor again…
“No reason to rush until service time becomes a factor again…”
The reason is, the longer you wait, the more expensive he might become
This is only true if he both starts the season in the majors AND is succesful. If he starts in the minors and/or struggles in the majors, then the extension would have been an overpay – like Campbell. As he’s expected to start in the minors, any extension talk right now would be incredibly dumb.
Even Roman Anthony, who should be excellent, was a bad extension in hindsight because he got hurt and finished 3rd in Rookie of the year voting (so he didn’t accrue a year of service time). If the Red Sox had waited until this offseason to extend him, the numbers would have been lower. It was a gamble that backfired, but we’re all still happy to have him extended.
WC – youre wrong on that one. Anthony signed a 9 year deal for 130.46m, with a team option for a 19th season.
And all he did was put up over 3 war in 71 games.
Now sure how you think he wouldve been cheaper than that, but, I think if they waited his price wouldve gone up, not down.
@GASoxFan
That’s not correct. Anthony signed an 8 year extension (for 130mil) with a team option year(for 30mil) and an additional 40mil in incentives.
He only played 25 games after signing the extension, at a similar level to how he had played before the extension, before suffering a season ending injury. So most of that WAR contribution proceeded the extension.
As stated, he would have been cheaper this off-season because he would have had one additional year of control than what was expected at the time. He was very good in those 25 games, but 25 good games, at a similar level to how he was already playing, doesn’t offset an entire year of control.
Keep in mind that with the extension he’s making an additional 11mil+ between 2026 and 2028 before accounting for the 3 years of bought out arbitration and 2-3 years of bought out free agency. For the extension to make sense financially, he would have to play like a 35mil+/yr plus player going forward, which he’s certainly capable of doing (and I assume we both expect he will), but it’s still quite a gamble in case something happens.
Sorry, most of that WAR contribution ‘preceeded’ the extension.
WCSoxFan
1 day ago
As stated, he would have been cheaper this off-season because he would have had one additional year of control than what was expected at the time. He was very good in those 25 games, but 25 good games, at a similar level to how he was already playing, doesn’t offset an entire year of control.
________________________
I completely disagree with you.
Any long-term contract is risky, whether it’s a free agent or a prospect.
There’s no way Anthony would be worth less this season unless the Sox signed him to a long contract in 2025.
If he played in September, he’d be around 4 WAR.
If Anthony debuted in early 2025, he’d be a 6 WAR player, even if only slightly down from 5 WAR.
With Anthony’s potential, this is a very lucrative contract, and if the Red Sox had waited until this offseason, Anthony’s price would have gone up significantly.
It looks like Anthony has become a true leader of the US team at the age of 21.
WCSoxFan
1 day ago
For the extension to make sense financially, he would have to play like a 35mil+/yr plus player going forward, which he’s certainly capable of doing (and I assume we both expect he will), but it’s still quite a gamble in case something happens.
__________________________-
This paragraph isn’t entirely clear.
How long should Anthony play as a $35 million-a-year player?
The Red Sox gave Bregman $40 million a year last season.
He struggled in the second half of the season.
If you had a choice, would you sign Bregman for 5/$175 or Anthony for 9/$175?
@Bogey
Contract extensions for young players already under team control can be confusing because the baseline isn’t a free agent contract, it’s 3 seasons at ~$800k followed by 3 seasons of reduced-salary arbitration-system raises. (Also teams can cut the player in-between seasons if they fail)
Anthony would need to produce an average of ~3.5 WAR annually because his 3 free agent years are being bought out for $84mil, which equates to 28mil/yr, then he’s being paid an additional 11.6mil past the minimum for his first 3 seasons, then he was given ~40mil in incentives. So let’s say he reaches only 20mil of the 40mil in incentives – together that’s an extra 31.6mil to add to his 3 years of arb and 3 years of free agency. Using the 40/60/80 scale of arbitration raises we would expect ~5/8 of that money to apply to his purchased free agent years, which would be 19.75mil, averaged over three years, comes to 6.583mil/yr. Add that to the 28mil/yr to get 34.583mil/yr which at a 9mil/WAR free agent going rate would come to 3.84 WAR/yr. He’s already lost 4mil of the incentives, and we don’t know how much of the incentives he would actually earn if he plays at that level (it could be a bit higher or lower), so I rounded down to 3.5.
The Red Sox didn’t pay 40mil last season to Bregman, they paid ~31.4mil (likely closer to 30mil), but when Bregman gets the differed money in the future it will be 40mil total for HIM. I’d take Anthony in a second over Bregman, and I’m perfectly happy with his contract as I expect he will outperform ~3.5 WAR annually for the next 9 seasons, but that wasn’t the discussion.
What it comes down to is that Anthony’s injury would have given the Red Sox a full extra year of control over him, which would have given them more leverage to negotiate this off-season. So even a good contract, which we can all be happy with, would have been even better if they had waited. (The 4mil he’s already lost in incentives is a sign that the Red Sox considered this and hedged slightly)
GAoxfan had previously argued that his performance in the 71 games he played more than offset the lost year of control, but he failed to account for 46 of those games coming before the contract extension.
WC- my cell is doong its weird cant edit after posting (the only time I see the typos in long posts due to the tiny box they give thats visible, with fat thumbs hitting 9s for 8s and 0s…
But point remains.
I dont think you’ll find anyone in baseball who in knowledgeable what so ever who thinks Anthony was worth less after 2025 than during.
At the time, his extension was widely panned as leaving a ton of money on the table and he responded to criticisms that he should’ve been paid *more*…
If he’s a base 8 year deal with a 2034 option, signed as a 21 year old, he’s in town till 2034 if they pick up the 9th year option.
You try a bunch of number gymnastics to argue he’s worth so much less than that. Tell us, what would you project his arb salaries to be if you want to be making that argument?
Had he not been extended, he’d be a 27 yr old free agent. What do you think he would earn as a 28 year old FA for those 3 years if the current market is any guide, with additional salary inflation in between? 50m per? 60m per?
There’s simply no way Anthony signs for less money after 2025 than he did during the season
GASoxFan
26 minutes ago
I completely agree with you.
It’s called post-factum thinking, when a fan knows about an injury and thinks the Red Sox rushed the contract and could have signed a more lucrative one in the future.
In real life, it doesn’t work like that because no one has a crystal ball to see the future.
WCSoxFan
3 hours ago
What it comes down to is that Anthony’s injury would have given the Red Sox a full extra year of control over him, which would have given them more leverage to negotiate this off-season. So even a good contract, which we can all be happy with, would have been even better if they had waited. (The 4mil he’s already lost in incentives is a sign that the Red Sox considered this and hedged slightly)
________________________________
No one could have known Anthony would get injured in September.
And what if he hadn’t?
You are reading tea leaves.
That’s guesswork.
I can say one thing: given the level of play Anthony showed before his injury and is showing now at the WBC, it’s unlikely he would have accepted anything less this offseason than he signed in 2025.
Breslow is a great guy.
He’s locking down young players with potential (Bello, Rafaela, Anthony) who are already making a big impact on the team, something Dombrowski never did.
Campbell may be an exception, but his saga hasn’t been told yet.
@GASoxFan
I understand the typo issue, I run into that same problem using my phone with auto-correct.
But please go back and read my posts. You are arguing against something that I never said. I understand you’re a fan, as am I, but I don’t appreciate the straw man argument. I have stated repeatedly that I think he’ll be worth the contract, which means I expect him to average 3.5 WAR over the next 9 seasons. It’s a lot, but he’s an incredibly talented player. That said, there’s still injury risk as there is with all players and he still has to figure out how to hit the ball in the air with greater frequency (both his MLB and MiLB ground ball rates show a major issue).
You made your initial claim with of before/after the season for the contract extension and I think you’re just being stubborn now after having it pointed out that it was before/after his final 25 games and the injury.
To turn your argument around: If Anthony’s free agent years are going to be worth 50-60mil as you are projecting, then losing one of those years of team control is enormous from the team’s stand point. You’re balancing that against the 25 games he played after signing the extension.
Prior to 2025 Anthony was vocal in his desire to NOT sign an extension but instead go year-to-year. But he changed his mind when the Red Sox offered him a deal that blew away all similar extensions by a huge margin – easily the largest in MLB history for a player with less than one year of team control, and even more so when you consider the incentives. You and I both think he will be well worth it, but no knowledgeable person at the time thought ‘what a team friendly deal!’ – that’s revisionist history.
@Bogey
If Anthony hadn’t been injured, he almost certainly would have been 2nd in Rookie-of-the-year voting and made the argument a moot point. It’s not reading tea leaves to discuss the past. The whole discussion is about how despite our being happy that Anthony is extended, signing him as quickly as they did rather than waiting until the off-season, gave Anthony a more player friendly extension. The injury isn’t the issue, it’s that he didn’t finish top-2 in RotY voting.
I’m glad Breslow is locking up the young players long term as it’s the best way to get high-upside talent at reduced market rates. Rafaela’s deal looks like a steal, hopefully a year or two from now Anthony’s deal does as well – if he becomes a 5+ WAR player, then it absolutely will be. Campbell’s deal is clearly quite bad as of now, but he does have time to turn it around – just keep in mind that he started hitting the Red Sox CBT at 7.5mil last year and will continue to do so through 2032.
Bello’s deal is currently underwater – at the time of the signing his break-even point was ~2.5 WAR and he has averaged ~2 WAR since, but he’s not far off and has plenty of time left to reach his potential. Again, the confusing part is that they already had him under team control for 5 years prior to the extension which only buys out 1-2 years of free agency.
I understand feeling emotional about these players, but please recognize that I’m also a Red Sox fan and feel the same way as you do. I’ve just taken the time to break down the contracts to see where they sit from a rational perspective, which isn’t always conducive to the ‘FANatic’ within us.
Btw, I chuckled when you said ‘Breslow is a great guy’… So he’s not a stiff?
WCSoxFan
1 second ago
Btw, I chuckled when you said ‘Breslow is a great guy’… So he’s not a stiff?
_________________________________
By “great guy,” I meant Breslow chose a completely different approach than Dombrowski.
The Red Sox have a very good core for the coming years—Rafaela, Bello, Anthony, Crochet—they’re the core around which to build a great team.
And no matter how anyone feels about Bloom, he deserves credit for the fact that the Red Sox have players like Whitlock, Abreu, Anthony, Mayer, and Early.
WCSoxFan
1 second ago
If Anthony hadn’t been injured, he almost certainly would have been 2nd in Rookie-of-the-year voting and made the argument a moot point. It’s not reading tea leaves to discuss the past. The whole discussion is about how despite our being happy that Anthony is extended, signing him as quickly as they did rather than waiting until the off-season, gave Anthony a more player friendly extension. The injury isn’t the issue, it’s that he didn’t finish top-2 in RotY voting.
________________________
Again, I disagree about Anthony. You’re clearly ignoring the future and don’t have a crystal ball to predict an injury or whether a player will settle for anything less.
Anthony showed potential last season, not just in words; he was the Red Sox’s leading player after Devers’ departure and Bregman’s injury.
Let’s imagine, if Anthony hadn’t gotten injured, he would have been on track for a 4.5 WAR in roughly 100+ games.
Extrapolating over the entire season, he was roughly a 6+ WAR player.
The Red Sox realized they had a special player who doesn’t come along very often, especially in the second round.
At 21, Anthony is showing maturity beyond his years.
Look at his performances at the WBC and what his national teammates are saying about him.
Do you really believe Anthony would have settled for anything less this offseason?
@Bogey
I think you’ve forgotten what the discussion was about as your argument is supporting my point.
If Anthony hadn’t gotten hurt and had finished top-2 in RotY voting, then the contract would have looked even better, but because he got hurt and fell out of the top-2, it looks worse to where an extension after last season would have started at a lower number – that’s part of the risk with all of these extensions.
Guessing what Anthony would or wouldn’t do in a hypothetical is pointless unless there’s factual backing. I suggest going back to see what we were discussing before you joined the conversation so that you can add to it if you like.
(I generally agree with your GM/POBO points, but those aren’t relevant to the conversation)
WC – theres a fatal flaw in your argument, IMO…
Anthony’s extension did NOT take effect in 2025. It begins with the 2026 season.
So whether you paid him during the 2025 season, extension effective 2026, or you extended him this offseason as you argue, effective 2026, it covers the *exact* same time period.
The only question was whether he wouldve taken less when he did sign or in this offseason (if you recall his little bit up and down start to things, both inconsistent batting and being made to field in front to reporters by Cora in a stupid power/shame move)
I stand by the fact Anthony wouldve asked for more after the season, than he did at the time.
Either way, the effective date of the extension was always 2026. Im guessing you missed that piece?
WC – tell us what you think Anthony wouldve expected this offseason, after putting up over 3 war, as a 21 year old, in under half a season?
@GASoxFan
The extension part was what you got wrong in your very first reply which I pointed out in my initial response. You missed this piece and either forgot, or didn’t read my response.
It’s the exact same seasons only because he signed the extension during the season under the assumption that he would have only 5 future years of control and not 6. You can see this in the contract language as a couple of the bonuses were added to deal with exactly this issue. If they had waited until the off-season, it would have been with the knowledge that he was under club control for 6 more seasons, and not 5.
Again, the entire argument is ‘were his final 25 games of 2025 plus the injury worth more in positive future value than one future free agent year from him’ – and I don’t know how you could come to the conclusion that they were, but if that’s your opinion that’s fine, but you keep missing the whole issue at hand: 25 games of very good play to raise his value vs 1 free agent season.
If you wish to continue this conversation, first please go back and read it so that we’re on the same page. (not trying to be snarky, but it’s frustrating that we’re back at square one again)
@GASoxFan
Unless you’ve forgotten that he signed the extension before his 47th game, you’re framing your question in bad faith. He had 2.7 fWAR last year with about 1 fWAR coming after he signed the extension and was subsuquently injured.
To figure out what the contract would be this off-season we need to account for:
+ 1 fWAR over 25 games
– injury (although no expectation of lingering issues)
– gained season of free agent control
+ missed top-2 RotY incentives
To put it into numbers:
~10mil (it’s hard to place value on only 25 games, but this is very high)
4mil (for missing the incentives for RotY)
(~1mil) for injury (again, hard to value)
(~37mil) (this is approximately how the two sides have valued each free agent year, which I already explained in depth)
So a loss of ~24 mil on a contract currently valued at 130-230mil. Not the end of the world, but it’s far from chump change. Now there’s always the chance that the two sides would fail to reach an extension in the off-season (although slight) and you could feel that the 24mil lost that could have been spent on other players was worth avoiding that risk. But, my post wasn’t about that, it was about how signing the player early can lead to a contract depreciating in value from a team’s perspecitve even when it’s still a very good contract to have.
WCSoxFan
7 days ago
@GASoxFan
That’s not correct. Anthony signed an 8 year extension (for 130mil) with a team option year(for 30mil) and an additional 40mil in incentives.
_____________________________
R.Anthony
Contract Notes
Signed at 0.058 years of service
2034 Club Option (no buyout)
2031 Escalators – requires a Top 2 ROY finish in 2025 (not met)
$1M for 2025 ROY (1st or 2nd place)
$2M per MVP award
$1M per MVP 2nd/3rd finish
$750k per MVP 4th-5th finish
$500k per MVP 6th-10th finish
$200k per All-Star Selection
2032-33 Escalators
$1M for 2025 ROY (1st or 2nd place)
$2M per MVP award
$1M per MVP 2nd/3rd finish
$750k per MVP 4th-5th finish
$500k per MVP 6th-10th finish
$200k per All-Star Selection
2034 Option Escalators
$2M for 2025 ROY (1st or 2nd place)
$2M per MVP award
$1M per MVP 2nd/3rd finish
$750k per MVP 4th-5th finish
$500k per MVP 6th-10th finish
$200k per All-Star Selection
Where did you get 40 million bonuses?
WCSoxFan
5 days ago
@Bogey
Using the 40/60/80 scale of arbitration raises we would expect ~5/8 of that money to apply to his purchased free agent years, which would be 19.75mil, averaged over three years, comes to 6.583mil/yr.
________________________________________
For example, A.Verdugo received $18,55 million over three years of arbitration.
For example, R.Devers received $32,275 million over three years of arbitration.
For example, Mookie Betts received $57.5 million over three years of arbitration.
You valued Anthony’s 3 arbitration years at roughly the same level as Verdugo.
What makes you think Anthony’s 3 arbitration years will cost $19.75 million?
The bonuses total up to 70mil (I haven’t personally added them up, but I take the AP’s word for it). But was using an approximation off the bonuses for the pre-option year. The contract was 130-230mil, but there’s quite a bit of wiggle room in the middle due to the heavy bonuses. Below is the breakdown via Cots (not sure where you are sourcing from):
8 years/$130M (2026-33), plus 2034 option
8 years/$130M (2026-33), plus 2034 club option
signed extension with Boston 8/7/25
$5M signing bonus
26:$2M, 27:$4M, 28:$8M, 29:$15M, 30:$19M, 31:$23M, 32:$25M, 33:$29M, 34:$30M club option (no buyout)
awards may increase 2031-34 salaries up to $14M in 2031, $16.2M in 2032, $18.4M in 2033, $21.6M in 2034:
$1M annually in 2032 or 2033 for first or second place in Rookie of the Year vote
$2M in 2034 for first or second place in Rookie of the Year vote
$2M each for winning league MVP award
$1M each for second or third place in MVP vote
$750,000 each for fourth or fifth place in MVP vote
$500,000 each for sixth through 10th in MVP vote
perks: hotel suite on road in 2031 with 2025 Rookie of the Year award, hotel suite on road in 2032-34
earned additional $725,317 in 2025 pre-arbitration bonus pool
You cut the paragraph off halfway through, which is why there’s confusion. Each paragraph is a full thought, or chain of thoughts, so I recommend reading them in their entirety.
That number is the excess he will be making in his pre-arb years (11.6mil) and a low expectation of bonuses earned (20mil) minus the amount (3/8 of the total; 11.85mil) of those number attributable to his arb years to get the number which should be added to his 3 bought-out free agent years (19.75mil)
Anthony is currently set to make 57mil in his 3 arb years, but I added an additional 11.85mil (from bonuses and excess payments for pre-arb years) which gets us to 68.85mil.
The number greatly exceeds all of your numbers, but like most of the information in my posts, it isn’t opinion (aside from the 20mil in bonuses, but that’s a rough, very low guess) but the actual numbers.
WC:
You didnt answer my question: how much do you rationally think Anthony would have signed for this offseason?
You talk about ’24m loss’… thats the closest thing to a number you give. So, you think Anthony was only worth $106m over 8 years, plus option and bonus escalators? If not, put it simply.
How many dollars do you think Anthony would have signed for this offseason? You must be able to justify it as less than the existing deal for your theory they overpaid to hold water.
So just give a number. What do *YOU* think he was worth this offseason?
All I see is convoluted and contradictory math.
And you throw out 40m in bonuses, then cut it to 20m…
The escalator bonuses I see here require milestones over 5 potential seasons to set the rate for 2031. To hit 40m, that means he must hit 5m in escalators per year.
You yourself said the ROY parts are out. So, pretend he is an AS every single season – a tough ask. Thats 200k per year, 800k total over 2031-34.
So an 8x all-star for 800k total, cumulative. OK.
Then youve got MVP. Also a tough ask. Even if Anthony was MVP every single season (highly unlikely) thats the only source of 2m x5yrs is 10m, over 4 seasons, $40m.
If he places 4th in MVP every years, also a huge ask, its a 3.75m bonus, over 4 seasons, 15m.
So, to the a 4th place MVP every season, amd an all star every season, only nets a potential 15.8m in bonus money unlocked.
There’s alot of other talented guys in MVP. If he can string 5 or 8 consecutive MVP wins together in historic fashion, any bonus would be a pittance.
As for valuing what his hotel comp is, even middle end talent typically gets perks like that and more on their deals.
I just want my one question answered: what do you argue Anthony was worth, in dollars, for an offseason extension covering the same years. Thats all. You said its less than 130m, so what is it?
WCSoxFan
2 hours ago
The bonuses total up to 70mil (I haven’t personally added them up, but I take the AP’s word for it). But was using an approximation off the bonuses for the pre-option year. The contract was 130-230mil, but there’s quite a bit of wiggle room in the middle due to the heavy bonuses. Below is the breakdown via Cots (not sure where you are sourcing from):
__________________________
I got the information from Spotrac.
You are pouring a lot of water…
Why pour so much water?
What amount and term would Anthony agree to this offseason, if you claim it was cheaper than the Red Sox signed him midway through the 2025 season?
Bogey, I dont think we will get a number.
It sounds like the theory is WC perceives Boston mightve had more leverage over Roman after the injury, and, after him not placing top 2 ROY to get service time bonus.
Me, I think a 21 year old who wouldve been on pace for a 7-war season at his age, has generational upside. As it is theyre buying age 28 and 29 free agent years, with an option on age 30. Those would be absolutely the most expensive in a player of this type’s career.
If he’s good enough to hit his escalators and incentives, he becomes an absolute bargain – look at recent free agent situations. Ideally, if 6 years from now were looking at a pile of awards, they seriously need to consider whether to roll those 2 now cheaply bought out years and exercise the option into another extension and keep him around to his late 30s, lowering the cbt hit in the process.
What we know is that ceiling on the contract just fell considerably because he missed out in ROY voting. Making the deal boston struck, when they struck it, even BETTER than before. Because without arguing the possible big numbers from a very possible top-2 ROY finish making the probability of higher payday quite likely, roman and his agent probably wouldve demanded other guaranteed money or other reachable incentives built in
GASoxFan
5 minutes ago
_______________________________
I completely agree with you.
The better a prospect performs, the more lucrative his contract can be in the future.
Anthony immediately showed excellent play in MLB without any warm-up time.
I wouldn’t factor in bonuses because they don’t count toward the luxury cap and aren’t considered in arbitration.
Anthony’s salary is set at $16.25 million AAV per year, and it won’t change for the next eight years.
Anthony needs to be 2 WAR player every year for this contract to be worthwhile.
However, given Roman’s potential and his early results in MLB, he could recoup the cost of this contract within the first three to four years.
And any bonuses Anthony might receive in the future won’t affect his average annual luxury tax bill of $16.25 million.
That’s why this contract is so lucrative.
GASoxFan
5 minutes ago
_________________________________
A very simple example is Ronald Acuña Jr.
If the Braves had delayed signing Acuña, would he have signed the same contract later?
I highly doubt it.
Bogey – another question we might want to tuck into the back corner of our minds, is looking around the league at the early extension attempts by various clubs, and, what they might mean in terms of expected concessions the owners have already talked to eachother about making in the next CBA to the MLBPA – specifically the arb system
@GaSoxFan
As shown, it would likely be somewhere between the 106mil and 130mil numbers. As in all negotiations, it’s not possible for us from the outside to say with certainty what the exact number would be and I’m not going to makeup some number without backing.
I’ve spent quite a bit of time walking you through the numbers, dismissing them because they don’t fit your pre-chosen view wastes both of our times. If you have a question regarding them then I’m happy to help.
I am not throwing out bonus numbers, but instead providing you with the information so that you can create an informed opinion. There’s no way for us to know what incentives he will, or won’t hit. I used 20mil as an estimate, but if you want to argue that it will be closer to 16mil or 12mil, that’s fine, it doesn’t change the numbers significantly. The 40mil was simply a potential for his pre-option years, while 70mil is the total potential in incentives at the time of the contract signing.
I didn’t bother addressing the hotel perks as that’s too much of a headache for a number which isn’t particularly significant.
@Bogey
Spotrac used to have a disclaimer that they took all of their MLB contract data from Cots. They removed their disclaimer about a year ago but I assume they’re still using Cots for most of their sourcing. They seem to automate most of this with though which typically leads to very incorrect numbers, so I would suggest not using them for MLB discussions (they’re better with NBA). AP is often the best source if you can find the direct report with contract breakdown.
@GASoxFan and @Bogey
You both began this discussion with completely uninformed opinions because you didn’t know anything about his contract but both refuse to listen to facts because you want to be right and are fans of the player. In the future I suggest educating yourselves on these things before starting an argument as I’ve gone out of my way to help each of you and water far too much of my time in retrospect.
As mentioned at the beginning, the entire discussion is centered around whether Anthony’s last 25 games and subsequent injury would raise or lower his future contract more than the loss of 1 year of free agent control – the only other variable at play is the loss of 4mil in incentives which were lost, which you didn’t seem to learn from my posts, but are now representing as his contract ‘falling considerably’.
Neither of you have been able to put together an argument so I’ll assume that at some level you each know that you were wrong in your assertion. Hopefully you learned something here, but I’ll be blocking you guys heading forward as I didn’t appreciate the lies or the waiting of my time. Educate yourself before your next discussion please as others don’t deserve that either.
WCSoxFan
1 second ago
@GASoxFan and @Bogeу
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Oh, don’t be so aggressive.
I’ll prove to you, quite simply, that this contract is lucrative.
You’re so fixated on the bonuses, but you’ve overlooked a very important and crucial thing: bonuses don’t count toward the luxury tax threshold. Anthony has a clearly defined AAV per year for eight years – $16.25 million, which is crucial for the team’s future.
WCSoxFan
1 week ago
@GASoxFan
(That’s not correct. Anthony signed an 8 year extension (for 130mil) with a team option year(for 30mil) and an additional 40mil in incentives.
He only played 25 games after signing the extension, at a similar level to how he had played before the extension, before suffering a season ending injury. So most of that WAR contribution proceeded the extension.
As stated, he would have been cheaper this off-season because he would have had one additional year of control than what was expected at the time. He was very good in those 25 games, but 25 good games, at a similar level to how he was already playing, doesn’t offset an entire year of control.
Keep in mind that with the extension he’s making an additional 11mil+ between 2026 and 2028 before accounting for the 3 years of bought out arbitration and 2-3 years of bought out free agency. For the extension to make sense financially, he would have to play like a 35mil+/yr plus player going forward, which he’s certainly capable of doing (and I assume we both expect he will), but it’s still quite a gamble in case something happens.)
This is your post, GaSoxFan, where you claim in the fourth paragraph that Anthony needs to produce at the $35 million level for it to make financial sense.
Now, I’ll explain why you’re mistaken:
Anthony’s contract is structured in such a way that it includes bonuses.
What are bonuses? They’re an additional incentive for a player to play better, and then those bonuses will be effective.
That is, bonuses are activated under the condition that the player must comply with certain agreements – bonuses are not given for the sake of good looks (the exception is the signing bonus).
Anthony’s contract is structured so that he only needs to produce at least 2 WAR (the average player) over the entire term of his contract. If he consistently makes the All-Star Game and consistently finishes in the top 10 MVPs, that’s a plus for Anthony. His bonuses will be activated, but this won’t affect the Red Sox’s luxury tax threshold, which will remain at $16.25 million per year for the eight years of this contract.
If Anthony is a 4-5+ WAR player over the next four years, this contract will pay for itself very quickly.
The Red Sox have taken all these factors into account.
The only way this contract could be unprofitable is if Anthony is constantly injured, becomes as overweight as Pablo Sandoval, and loses motivation to play at such a young age.
That’s why I think this is a good contract for both the player and the Red Sox.
I hope, I have made enough points.
Now, please explain, without further ado, why Anthony must play for 35 million a year?
Anthony’s contract is structured so that he only needs to produce at least 2 WAR (the average player) over the entire term of his contract
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What I meant here is that Anthony should be a 2 WAR player – at least an average player for the duration of his contract.
Bogey – little goof, but its all good.
Where you wrote:
This is your post, GaSoxFan, where you claim in the fourth paragraph that Anthony needs to produce at the $35 million level for it to make financial sense.
——————-
That was WCSoxFan above, not me. Easy mistake to make though. Many years ago when I had the Atl handle, later hanged to GA after moving out of the metro, there werent similar names running around
GASoxFan
1 second ago
Bogey – little goofy, but its all good.
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I meant that this post by WCSoxFan was addressed to you, but I forgot to put the word “addressed.”
I know it wasn’t you.
Thank you for your correction.
I notice your post did the same thing mine did the first time around…. when I wrote goof it changed it to ‘goofy’ and i had to go back and edit it, just like happened in your quote of what I wrote.
Small things are seeming hilarious today, I must not be sleeping enough!
I’m just here for the puns
Early eventuality enters easily, erasing elevated expectations entirely.
Actually, another alliterative assonance
WC, you get double points !
Wonderfully written.
Can we please slow down with the extensions for the rookies?? He’s proven nothing to deserve it yet
They have not discussed an extension with him.
The rookie extensions are a gamble. Looks like 2 of the 3 they handed out were good. The one on Campbell may have been a bust. They are hoping to save money in the long term if they are superstars, but if not, then they are overpaid utility or role players.
And in all honesty, the money they “save” on Anthony (if he continues to develop yadda yadda) will more than make up for Campbell if he’s not able to turn it around.
My guess is that if K. Campbell can hit .285 with a little pop in AAA, he will be included in a trade at the deadline for someone who can help the Red Sox win the AL East.
Fenway monster, trying to sneak that $60 million price tag past a unsuspecting rival GM is like trying to sneak a sunrise past a rooster.
.285 in AAA Won’t get that done I’m afraid. Especially with the lack of defense. We actually could have another Rusney Castillo situation with Campbell.
K. Campbell is earning $2 million; $3 million; $4 million over the next 3 years. It escalates after that, but my thoughts are that if he shows signs of returning to his early 2025 form, a team might take the risk and give up a pending free agent to get him at the deadline.
GaryRedSoxxWarriors
1 day ago
.285 in AAA Won’t get that done I’m afraid. Especially with the lack of defense. We actually could have another Rusney Castillo situation with Campbell.
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I don’t think it’s a very apt comparison.
When Castillo was signed, he was 26 years old, a highly touted international prospect from Cuba.
He never fulfilled his potential, even in the minor leagues—nothing special.
Campbell had a terrific rookie year in the minor leagues in 2024.
The Red Sox signed him to a long-term contract at age 22.
Campbell still has time to turn things around at just 23.
The question is different.
If Campbell plays well in Triple-A, where would you place him?
The Red Sox outfield is crowded—Anthony, Duran, Rafaela, Abreu.
Campbell’s defense at second base is poor, but even if he improved, that position is occupied by Mayer and Durbin.
Campbell practically has no place to play because the spots are full.
Of course, injuries happen, and this is Campbell’s only chance to break into the Red Sox’s starting lineup.
Yes Bogey, your thoughts are spot on accurate and true. An in-depth analysis shows the situations are quite different.
Mine was more a drive-by thought that Campbell would not perform well enough to make it into regular playing time on the big league roster. His contract may very well play out to be dead money.
Much like Rusney Castillo.
herm – Don’t make assumptions on Rafaela just yet, he has to learn to hit first.
They are lucky Casas didn’t accept their lowball offer.
Fever- he needs to learn how to hit, stop chasing EVERYTHING within a foot of the strike zone, and to take the walk. Other than that he’s great!
Actually the Roman Anthony extension was quite bad in hindsight. It was signed under the assumption that he would finish top-2 in Rookie of the Year voting and they were buying out 2 years of free agency plus an option year. Because he finished 3rd it was only 1 year plus an option year.
If they had waited the extend him this offseason the contract would have been longer or lower. (not sure many fans care about those technicalities though)
Mango – I have to believe him being asked about it is just a way for media to have something to write about. It’s almost like they want the players to have resentment about not having an extension offer.
FPG
Contract extension???!! What are we talking about??? Are the Sox going to sign every young player who shows some promise to a multi year,multi million dollar deal? I like Early but let him prove himself a bit more. He is still under team control for several more seasons. How about Tolle ? Is he next ? Arias ? Slow down on the extensions.
Didn’t they just do this article with Mayer? They could just list all the players they haven’t talked to in one article and be done with it. But click bait catches Boston fans easily.
Nor should they. Since we don’t know who the 5th starter is to start the season there’s no reason to jump to an extension yet
The M’s gave up and coming Evan White a nice 20-million-dollar contract before he was a proven MLB player. OOPS. Too early.
It was reported that Jared Kelenic was offered one too but turned it down. OOPS. Shoulda’ signed early.
MassLive making the rounds. I’m eager to find out if the RS bat boy with elite sprint speed has been approached for an extension.
There will be an article tomorrow about how they have yet to do that… They need something to write about before the season actually begins.
Have you seen the dude who’s the bat boy for the Red Sox at Fenway? He’s like 30 and does not have “elite sprint speed.”
Fantastic, timely, experienced hustle, yes.., but sprint speed, no.
The fact is, they did extend him early, I think at age 14 and you can see now how that controversial practice often leads to a Rusney Castillo, Khristian Campbell, Red Sox bat boy, type of regret.
By the way, while we’re here, the kid they should’ve extended early was the one who runs the jackets from the bullpen to the dugout after a bullpen call. That guy’s got legs !!
It’s the ball boy who needs elite speed. Well, and the bullpen jacket guy.
Every freaking team writes a bad contract along the way. Every freaking team misses a guy who winds up being a star. Just relax. Let’s see what Tolle and Early do and then discuss contracts.
These two will hopefully contribute this year and we’ll see what the Lefty Sox can do over a full season. Just let it play out.
Why would they want to extend him? There is inherent reasons why pitchers and position players are treated differently. Where position player extensions make sense, it doesn’t for pitchers.
Even if Early is very talented, there is no reason to bump up his pay for security. The landscape of modern pitching revolves too much on the increasing inevitability pitchers get injured. The directional variability this ascribes to pitcher’s careers requires extenuating circumstances to overcome this norm, such as exceptional performances above and beyond. Early hasn’t cemented any performance to transcend conventions, and therefore there shouldn’t be expectations extensions could happen as teams already have plenty of security with the team controls.
Cora burps in dugout!
Details and analysis at 11.
Way too early, pardon the pun. He performed great in his first taste of MLB, but it’s kind of soon to be offering a long term contract. He pitched a whopping 19 1/3 innings so far. Let him get a solid year in the big first. Plenty of time.
Crawford should really be in the MLB bullpen if he’s healthy
Boston is ripe with extension candidates. They could be a force soon.
Too bad they traded one of the best in Teel.
I think they needed Crochet a lot more then a catcher ( no matter how great he may end up )
Agreed
The kid can pitch. But, there’s far too much hype around a guy with 19 innings pitched in the bigs with, as yet, no defined role.
I agree. I’m a big believer in him and got to watch one of his starts live at Fenway. He’s legit. That being said, there is absolutely no reason to extend him yet. Maybe after this season if he keeps the same trajectory.
I guess it’s better in this case to approach any decision later than Early. I liked him in the wildcard going against Shittler. That was a great match up for a minute or so.
No team should ever extend a player before they’re willing to start him full-time in the majors. Given that Early will likely start the season in the minors, and they only need to hold him down for 35 days (~80 to avoid super 2) to get an extra year of service time from him, it would be moronic to extend him right now.
This goes for every player who won’t make an MLB roster right away. The guys who get extended before the season starts are doing so with the understanding that they’re good enough to make the team but the team will hold them down for 16+ days in order to get the extra year of control if they don’t sign – it’s a leverage play (and sometimes a bluff given the compensation picks which can be awarded).
For anyone who wants to know how the system works, and how to game it, checkout how the Orioles handled Basallo last season. They held him down till he would still qualify the compensation-rookie status for 2026 and then signed him to an extension 2 days later. That’s how you do it.
I’m not sure we need a column on all the guys that the RS are NOT extending. I applaud their efforts, but hitters are far easier to forecast than pitchers, imho.
Why would they?
This just in: nothing
I don’t know if I can handle the same “Early” puns for the next 6-12 years. I think I’d prefer the Sox trade him earlier rather than later.